9914dan
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帝汶海一级热带气旋“弗朗西斯”(29U/17S.Frances) - 横过北澳海域

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更多 发布于:2017-04-21 17:22
97P INVEST 170421 0600   9.5S  143.0E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20170421.0840.himawari-8.ir.97P.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.9.5S.143E.100pc.jpg



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[9914dan于2017-04-27 23:05编辑了帖子]
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iam最小值
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发布于:2017-04-24 12:12
ABPW10 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/232100Z-241800ZAPR2017//
RMKS/
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:      
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9S
137.0E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231956Z GPM 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE BOTH DEPICT A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE DISTRUBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abpwsair.jpg



Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 24 April 2017
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 27 April 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

A weak tropical low, 1007 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, near 8S 136E,
about 475 km north of Nhulunbuy at 12:30pm CST on 24 April 2017. The tropical
low is currently moving west-southwest at 14 km/h and is expected to continue
moving west-southwestwards across the Arafura Sea, well north of the Top End
coast. The low may slowly develop during the coming days, with a risk that it
could reach cyclone strength on Wednesday or Thursday.
Even if the low does not develop into a Tropical Cyclone, winds over the
southern Arafura Sea and about the northwest NT coast are expected to increase
from late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
                                   Tuesday: Low.
                                   Wednesday: Moderate.
                                   Thursday: Moderate.
In the longer term, the low is forecast to move further west through the Timor
Sea, reducing the risk of a Tropical Cyclone in the Northern Region.
[iam最小值于2017-04-25 12:52编辑了帖子]
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Mitch
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2楼#
发布于:2017-04-25 12:58
BOM编号28U看好发展预测在周五命名不过由于在9S以北在BMKG责任区BOM暂时不发报。
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iam最小值
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发布于:2017-04-25 13:25
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:23 pm CST on Tuesday 25 April 2017
for the period until midnight CST Friday 28 April 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low, 1008 hPa, was located just north of the Northern Region, over the central Arafura Sea near 7.5S 133.0E, about 460 km north of Goulburn Island at 12:30pm CST on 25 April 2017 and was moving towards the west at 12 km/h.
The tropical low is expected to continue moving west to southwest across the Arafura Sea and into the Timor Sea by Friday, remaining north of the Northern Territory. The low may slowly develop during the coming days, with a risk that it could reach cyclone strength on Friday. Due to it's currently position and movement there is some uncertainty as to whether the low moves into the Northern Region.
Even if the low does not develop into a tropical cyclone, winds over the southern Arafura Sea and about the northwest coast of the Northern Territory are expected to increase from late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Wednesday:Low.
Thursday:Low.
Friday:Moderate.

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


 
虽然可以根据以往的经验猜测BOM的编号,但官方未公布编号前请不要用肯定语句发言,否则请给出依据,以免误导其他人。
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刚打酱油回来
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发布于:2017-04-25 16:31
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Tuesday, 25th Aprl 2017, Time 08.00 Western Indonesia Time

Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:
None.

Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Suspect area with minimum pressure 1007 mb is observed in Arafuru Sea near 8.4 S 134.6 E, about 365 km Southeast of Banda Island, and moving west south west, 9 km/hr.
Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Wednesday (tomorrow) : small possibility
Thursday (tomorrow +1): medium possibility
Friday (tomorrow +2) : large possibility

Note:
Small possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is less than 10%.
Medium possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is about 20%-40%.
Large possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is more than 50%.

Southern Indonesia area is area within equator to 11 S and 90 to 141 E.
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刚打酱油回来
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5楼#
发布于:2017-04-26 08:38

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


TPXS10 PGTW 260035
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97P (N OF DARWIN)
B. 26/0000Z
C. 8.57S
D. 130.20E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
1.0 DT. MET/PT N/A.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   DAVIS

TXXS21 KNES 252354
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97P)
B.  25/2330Z
C.  7.7S
D.  131.3E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...SCHWARTZ
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刚打酱油回来
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发布于:2017-04-26 10:47

图片:sh9717.gif


WTXS21 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5S 131.8E TO 10.6S 126.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 130.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4S 132.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 265
NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONSTANT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND A MOSTLY CIRCULAR
SHAPE. A 252209Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS AND A 251946Z
GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS RAPIDLY BECOME LESS AND
LESS ELONGATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A MARGINAL BUT IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS), THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND ARE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270300Z.//
NNNN
[刚打酱油回来于2017-04-26 11:00编辑了帖子]
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灯亮远方
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发布于:2017-04-26 12:57
标题……“婊“……”婊演”?
[灯亮远方于2017-04-26 13:18编辑了帖子]
【年年岁岁台风相似,岁岁年年追风不同】
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Mitch
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8楼#
发布于:2017-04-26 13:18
BOM预测明后天由BMKG命名发报命名,125E到129E区间BMKG与BOM责任区分界线是11S。系统移向帝汶岛。未来进入帝汶海过11S后由珀斯发报。
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Mitch
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发布于:2017-04-26 13:30
截止目前2016年到2017年南半球热带系统命名西南印度洋5个澳州区6个西南太平洋2个合计13个如果这个命名就14个明显偏少。西南印度洋南大西洋亚热带系统命名合计3个。
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