颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[AL]北大西洋热带风暴“埃尔琳”(01L.Arlene) - 副热带系统高纬转暖,绝处逢生终获命名,北大十四年來首個四月氣旋、历来唯二四月命名风暴

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-04-17 19:35
I have to add one more surprise to my long hurricane forecasting career.
— NHC forecaster Lixion Avila

SSD云图特写

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

图片:rb_lalo-animated.gif


01L于北纬37.7度处增强为热带风暴,是为历来最北形成的热带风暴之一。
(动图,NASA MSFC Earth Science Office)

图片:01L Arlene.gif


编扰资讯 (NRL)

91L INVEST 170417 0600  33.5N   47.3W ATL   50   986

图片:201704162221_at_graphicast.png


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[颱風巨爵于2017-04-30 08:35编辑了帖子]
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meow
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1楼#
发布于:2017-04-17 19:53
是个有转暖迹象的温带气旋

图片:20170417.1115.goes13.x.wv1km.91LINVEST.50kts-NAmb-335N-473W.100pc.jpg


图片:20170417.1115.goes13.x.vis2km.91LINVEST.50kts-NAmb-335N-473W.100pc.jpg


...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 33N47W 987 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. BETWEEN 60 NM AND 300 NM W
QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 36 FT. ALSO N OF 31N
WITHIN 240 NM E...120 NM S...480 NM W AND 420 NM NW QUADRANTS
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 41N
BETWEEN 36W AND 56W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 32N44W 992 MB. N OF 31N WITHIN 240 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE BETWEEN
35W AND A LINE FROM 40N45W TO 31N54W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8
TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 31N42W 994 MB. BETWEEN 240 NM AND 480 NM
NE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ALSO BETWEEN 35W
AND A LINE FROM 40N44W TO 31N50W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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桑美和伊欧凯
资深会员-热带辐合带
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2楼#
发布于:2017-04-17 22:34
涡度独立,范围颇大
红外云图看不明显

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:wg8vor.gif

最新台风动向

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beta
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3楼#
发布于:2017-04-17 22:54
桑美和伊欧凯锛毼卸榷懒ⅲ段拇
红外云图看不明显
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
你这个图还是2月10日的图,当然看不出来。
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颱風巨爵
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4楼#
发布于:2017-04-18 02:19
NHC從冬眠中醒了。2017年第一次亦是季外特別發佈Tropical Weather Outlook。
由於環境條件有利(尤其該區風切相當微弱),預測未來一兩日有潛力發展為副熱帶氣旋,屆時將可能被命名。

图片:two_atl_2d0.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png



Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic
about midway between Bermuda and the Azores Islands is producing an
area of gale-force winds to the west of the center.  This low is
currently producing only limited shower activity, but environmental
conditions could favor additional development and this system has
some potential to become a subtropical cyclone over the next day or
so as it moves generally eastward.
 The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT Tuesday.  For additional
information on this system, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent


图片:C9odwbaVYAAeYLO.jpg



EC預報副熱帶/熱帶氣旋生成機率

(轉自 Michael Ventrice, Twitter)
[颱風巨爵于2017-04-18 02:36编辑了帖子]
颱風若只如初見。
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桑美和伊欧凯
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5楼#
发布于:2017-04-18 22:12

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic
about midway between Bermuda and the Azores Islands is producing an
area of gale-force winds to the west of the center.  This low is
currently producing only limited shower activity, but environmental
conditions could favor additional development and this system has
some potential to become a subtropical cyclone over the next day or
so as it moves generally eastward.  The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT Tuesday.  For additional
information on this system, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

图片:latestATL.png


图片:two_atl_2d0.png


 
仍然30%,但这个扰动一旦转暖,必然直接命名!
最新台风动向

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meow
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6楼#
发布于:2017-04-18 22:19
桑美和伊欧凯锛歓CZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 ...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
要在低于35kt之前命名否则就没机会了。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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7楼#
发布于:2017-04-19 16:35
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:latestATL.png


 
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system is located over the central
Atlantic more than 700 miles southwest of the Azores. Showers and
thunderstorms have become a little better organized since yesterday,
and winds to near gale force have developed northeast through
southeast of the well-defined center. This system still has the
opportunity to become a subtropical cyclone during the next day or
so before it becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone on
Thursday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued
by 2 PM EDT this afternoon.  For additional information on this
system, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart
转暖的机会提升到50%
但风速只剩35KT了,想要马上抓到名字需要保持强度
最新台风动向

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iam最小值
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8楼#
发布于:2017-04-19 20:45
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
825 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system is located over the central
Atlantic a little more than 700 miles southwest of the Azores.
There has been a small increase in organization during the past few
hours, and a subtropical depression is likely to form later today
before the system becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical
cyclone on Thursday.  The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will
be issued by 2 PM EDT this afternoon unless advisories have already
been initiated.  For additional information on this system, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

图片:two_atl_2d1.png



WTNT21 KNGU 190600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT //
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 31.2N 41.8W TO 32.9N 37.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 31.3N 41.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2.REMARKS: A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 700NM SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND HAVE BECOME DEFINED WITH WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. IF THESE
TRENDS CONTINUE A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200600Z.//

图片:al912017.gif

[颱風巨爵于2017-04-19 23:14编辑了帖子]
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meow
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9楼#
发布于:2017-04-19 21:15
即将正式编号
AL, 91, 2017041912,   , BEST,   0, 316N,  411W,  30,  995, SD,
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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