9914dan
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[WP]02W机构发报专帖

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更多 发布于:2017-04-13 17:38

图片:wp9217.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 131000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.4N 134.5E TO 11.1N 126.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130930Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 133.7E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.6N 134.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 95NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT
CORE CONVECTION. A 13/0700Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR, PALAU INDICATE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE
SOUTHERLY, INDICATIVE OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE CIRCULATION, AND
HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 0.5MB.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED DEVELOPMENT (GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DEVELOPING WHILE NAVGEM SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT) AND SHOW A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141000Z.//
NNNN
[9914dan于2017-04-14 15:01编辑了帖子]
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tcfa_gw
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发布于:2017-04-14 16:04
JTWC/02W/#01/04-14 06Z
WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130951Z APR 17//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 10.6N 129.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 129.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 11.2N 127.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 11.6N 125.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 12.0N 123.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 12.6N 121.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 129.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 568 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND
150900Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 131000).//
NNNN

图片:wp0217.gif

[tcfa_gw于2017-04-14 16:07编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2017-04-14 16:14
HKO/TD/04-14 06Z
熱帶低氣壓

在香港時間 2017 年 04 月 14 日 14 時的最新資料

位置:  北緯 10.4 度,東經 129.3 度
中心附近最高持續風速:  每小時 45 公里

位於西北太平洋的熱帶氣旋會在未來一兩天橫過菲律賓。
熱 帶 氣 旋 路 徑

图片:nwp_1704.png



預 測 的 位 置 和 強 度

香 港 時 間        位 置        熱 帶 氣 旋 類 別        中 心 附 近 最 高 持 續 風 速
2017 年 04 月 15 日 14 時        北 緯 11.2 度        東 經 124.4 度        熱帶低氣壓        每小時 45 公里
2017 年 04 月 16 日 14 時        北 緯 12.9 度        東 經 119.7 度        熱帶低氣壓        每小時 45 公里
2017 年 04 月 17 日 14 時        北 緯 15.2 度        東 經 118.7 度        低壓區        每小時 40 公里
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拉姆爱推销
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3楼#
发布于:2017-04-14 16:50
JTWC/02W/#01/04-14 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 568 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION,
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE, LIMITED BANDING OVER THE LLCC. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO
T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). TD 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE EASTERN VISAYAS NEAR TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
DESPITE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM, THERE ARE KEY
FACTORS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION, PRIMARILY, THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND THE CYCLIC NATURE OF THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION (CURRENTLY, MSI INDICATES THE CLOUDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO WARM). TD 02W MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 30 KNOTS
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OR REMAIN STEADY AT 25 KNOTS BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY PRIOR TO WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILLIPINES AFTER TAU 24. THE REMNANTS
ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER
TAU 48 BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO REGENERATE DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.//
NNNN
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t02436
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发布于:2017-04-14 21:51
JTWC/02W/#02/04-14 12Z

图片:wp022017.20170414133716.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141200Z --- NEAR 10.6N 128.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 128.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 11.1N 126.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 11.6N 124.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 12.2N 122.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 13.2N 120.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 128.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 141200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND
151500Z.//
NNNN
[t02436于2017-04-14 22:05编辑了帖子]
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t02436
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发布于:2017-04-14 22:20
JTWC/02W/#02/04-14 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN ORGANIZED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 141217Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE,
HOWEVER, SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). TD
02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE EASTERN VISAYAS NEAR TAU 18. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
DESPITE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM, THERE ARE KEY
FACTORS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION, PRIMARILY, THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION, THE CYCLIC NATURE OF THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. TD 02W MAY
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 30 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OR REMAIN
STEADY AT 25 KNOTS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
PRIOR TO WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES
AFTER TAU 24. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 48 BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO REGENERATE
DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.//
NNNN
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    04-14 23:01
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t02436
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发布于:2017-04-14 22:25
HKO/TD/04-14 12Z
熱帶低氣壓

在香港時間 2017 年 04 月 14 日 20 時的最新資料

位置:  北緯 10.5 度,東經 128.7 度
中心附近最高持續風速:  每小時 45 公里

位於西北太平洋的熱帶氣旋會在未來一兩天橫過菲律賓。
熱 帶 氣 旋 路 徑

图片:nwp_1704.png



預 測 的 位 置 和 強 度

香 港 時 間        位 置        熱 帶 氣 旋 類 別        中 心 附 近 最 高 持 續 風 速
2017 年 04 月 15 日 20 時        北 緯 11.4 度        東 經 123.2 度        熱帶低氣壓        每小時 45 公里
2017 年 04 月 16 日 20 時        北 緯 13.6 度        東 經 118.7 度        熱帶低氣壓        每小時 45 公里
2017 年 04 月 17 日 20 時        北 緯 15.7 度        東 經 118.3 度        低壓區        每小時 40 公里
[t02436于2017-04-14 22:27编辑了帖子]
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wusifeng
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发布于:2017-04-15 04:38
JTWC/02W/#03/04-14 18Z
WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z --- NEAR 10.7N 127.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 127.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 11.3N 125.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 11.9N 123.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 12.5N 121.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 127.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 447 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp0217.gif

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wusifeng
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8楼#
发布于:2017-04-15 04:40
JTWC/02W/#03/04-14 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN ORGANIZED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 141217Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE,
HOWEVER, SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). TD
02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE EASTERN VISAYAS NEAR TAU 18. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
DESPITE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM, THERE ARE KEY
FACTORS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION, PRIMARILY, THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION, THE CYCLIC NATURE OF THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. TD 02W MAY
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 30 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OR REMAIN
STEADY AT 25 KNOTS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
PRIOR TO WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES
AFTER TAU 24. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 48 BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO REGENERATE
DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.//
NNNN
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wusifeng
资深会员-热带辐合带
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发布于:2017-04-15 04:42
HKO/TD/04-14 18Z
熱帶低氣壓

在香港時間 2017 年 04 月 15 日 02 時的最新資料

位置:  北緯 10.8 度,東經 127.5 度
中心附近最高持續風速:  每小時 45 公里

位於西北太平洋的熱帶氣旋會在今明兩日橫過菲律賓。
熱 帶 氣 旋 路 徑

图片:nwp_1704.png



預 測 的 位 置 和 強 度

香 港 時 間        位 置        熱 帶 氣 旋 類 別        中 心 附 近 最 高 持 續 風 速
2017 年 04 月 16 日 02 時        北 緯 11.7 度        東 經 123.4 度        熱帶低氣壓        每小時 45 公里
2017 年 04 月 17 日 02 時        北 緯 13.2 度        東 經 119.1 度        熱帶低氣壓        每小時 45 公里
2017 年 04 月 18 日 02 時        北 緯 15.7 度        東 經 118.3 度        低壓區        每小時 40 公里
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