9914dan
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[IO]孟加拉湾东部气旋风暴“玛如夏”(BOB 01/01B.Maarutha) - 快速东北行,登陆缅甸若开邦,北印八年来首个四月气旋

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更多 发布于:2017-04-13 10:12
编扰资讯

92B INVEST 170413 0000   6.7N   87.7E IO   15  1010

图片:20170413.0100.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.92BINVEST.15kts-1010mb-67N-877E.100pc.jpg


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[9914dan于2017-04-17 22:21编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
  • tcfa_gw
    威望 3
    原创帖
    04-13 10:37
  • tcfa_gw
    金钱 3
    原创帖
    04-13 10:37
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ty18njzty18nj...
謙神
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1楼#
发布于:2017-04-13 10:48
西南季風就指望它了
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tontonyua
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2楼#
发布于:2017-04-13 19:59
数值极其看好这货,能达到飓风级别,秒杀92W

图片:捕获.PNG



图片:捕获.PNG

我与论坛相遇在猴年马月。tontonyua
期盼5.22北京大雨。
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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3楼#
发布于:2017-04-13 20:27
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 13.04.2017 BASED ON
0300 UTC OF 13.04.2017.

BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:
SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LIE OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA. THE
TROUGH OF LOW OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA
PERSISTS.IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE GRADUALLY INTO A DEPRESSION
DURING 48 HOURS OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 72 HRS:

24 HOURS     24-48 HOURS    48-72 HOURS

  NIL           LOW            FAIR
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zzgb01
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4楼#
发布于:2017-04-14 08:41
云图动画旋转已经很明显了,北印首旋在望
石头虽然坚硬,可蛋才是生命!
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禾愛糖
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5楼#
发布于:2017-04-14 10:49
謙神锛毼髂霞撅L就指望它了鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
這貨亦是對華南前汛期一個重要指標,扯起西南季風,標誌著全面進入雨季
從前的我打倒今天的我。

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真宫寺小乔
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6楼#
发布于:2017-04-14 14:56
这货是南印度洋中部越赤道西风跟副高南侧偏东气流作用产生的,因为现在越赤道西南风尚不明显,所以其发展跟很多季风爆发前期的北印度洋tc类似,并入南支槽
没有正常人可以一直不长大的。如果有人能一直像个小孩,那是因为有人帮她承担了她应该承担的东西。
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iam最小值
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7楼#
发布于:2017-04-14 15:32
ABIO10 PGTW 140400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/140400Z-141800ZAPR2017//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 87.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A 140103Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT DEFINED
LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A SHARP TROUGH OVER
NORTHEAST INDIA, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND WARM SST
(30-32 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

图片:abiosair.jpg


图片:vis_lalo-animated (1).gif



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
14.04.2017 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 14.04.2017.

BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE AREA LIE OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL &
NEIGHBOURHOOD HAS BECOME WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA LIE OVER THE
SAME REGION. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION
DURING NEXT 36 HOURS AND INTENSIFY FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT NEXT 24 HRS.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS MYANMAR COAST
DURING NEXT 72 HRS. BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE
TO INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND
ANDAMAN SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 72 HRS:

24 HOURS     LOW
24-48 HOURS  MODERATE
48-72 HOURS  HIGH
[iam最小值于2017-04-14 17:59编辑了帖子]
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tontonyua
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8楼#
发布于:2017-04-14 16:01
这货要抢去02W的风头,被数值大幅看好,有望达到飓风级别
我与论坛相遇在猴年马月。tontonyua
期盼5.22北京大雨。
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NOname123
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9楼#
发布于:2017-04-14 16:28
92B會唔會因為太多對流而減慢整合速度?
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