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[SH(16-17)]西澳近岸热带低压27U(96S)

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更多 发布于:2017-04-07 08:15
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发布于:2017-04-07 16:37
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Friday 7 April 2017
for the period until midnight CST Monday 10 April 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low [1008hPa] is located within an active monsoon trough in the Arafura Sea near 8S 134E, about 450km north of Maningrida. The low is likely to move slowly westward before gradually strengthening later in the weekend and early next week as it turns southwest towards the Timor Sea. The low is not expected to have a direct impact on the NT coast at this stage.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Saturday:Very Low.
Sunday:Low.
Monday:Moderate.

图片:2017SH96_4KMIRIMG_201704070750.GIF

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发布于:2017-04-08 14:17
只要不登陆就有机会命名,离开陆地比较近能否命名看在海上时间能否比较长。
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发布于:2017-04-08 23:11
ABIO10 PGTW 071800
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0S
133.6E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071256Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ
DEPICT AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071258Z METOP-A
ASCAT PASS INDICATES 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY
MARGINAL WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND 20-25 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE AT 28-30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS
THIS SYSTEM IN A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND INDICATES STEADY
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BECAUSE THIS DISTURBANCE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ABIO10 PGTW 081000
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0S
133.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 080623Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 080054Z (METOP-B) ASCAT PASS INDICATES 20-25 KNOTS
(WITH ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS) ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29C) SSTS, IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
OFFSET BY STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

图片:abiosair.jpg




Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 8 April 2017
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 11 April 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low, 1005 hPa, is located within an active monsoon trough in the Arafura Sea near 7.4S 133E, about 520 km northwest of Maningrida. The low is likely to move slowly westward before gradually strengthening later in the weekend and early next week as it turns south or southwest towards the Timor Sea. There is uncertainty in the future movement of the low. If the low moves towards the south it could affect the northwest Top End including the Tiwi Islands early next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday:Low.
Monday:Moderate.
Tuesday:Moderate.
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发布于:2017-04-09 12:11
BOM开始发报
 

图片:BOM 20170409 00UTC.png



Details:
  Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 am April 9 tropical low 7.5S 131.9E 45
+6hr 2 pm April 9 tropical low 7.8S 131.9E 55
+12hr 8 pm April 9 tropical low 8.2S 132.0E 75
+18hr 2 am April 10 tropical low 8.5S 131.7E 95
+24hr 8 am April 10 tropical low 8.9S 131.2E 110
+36hr 8 pm April 10 tropical low 9.6S 130.4E 150
+48hr 8 am April 11 1 10.7S 129.5E 185
+60hr 8 pm April 11 1 11.7S 128.5E 220
+72hr 8 am April 12 2 12.6S 127.3E 260
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发布于:2017-04-10 09:09

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


TPXS12 PGTW 100049
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96S (NNE OF DARWIN)
B. 10/0000Z
C. 8.90S
D. 133.28E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   09/1855Z  8.58S  133.10E  SSMS

   MARTINEZ
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发布于:2017-04-11 16:05
路径不断南调,云图上看或许底层中心完好,但是中高层始终一团乱,CISK机制未能良好启动,而且现在受陆地影响大,短期内并不看好加强命名。

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0821 UTC 11/04/2017
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 27U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.6S
Longitude: 131.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [212 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  11/1200: 12.0S 131.3E:     040 [080]:  030  [055]:  999
+12:  11/1800: 12.3S 130.6E:     055 [100]:  030  [055]:  999
+18:  12/0000: 12.5S 130.1E:     065 [125]:  030  [055]:  998
+24:  12/0600: 12.9S 129.6E:     080 [145]:  030  [055]:  997
+36:  12/1800: 13.4S 128.1E:     100 [185]:  040  [075]:  995
+48:  13/0600: 14.1S 126.0E:     120 [220]:  040  [075]:  996
+60:  13/1800: 14.8S 123.7E:     140 [255]:  040  [075]:  996
+72:  14/0600: 15.7S 121.6E:     155 [290]:  035  [065]:  998
+96:  15/0600: 16.5S 118.7E:     200 [370]:  030  [055]: 1003
+120: 16/0600: 17.4S 117.1E:     290 [535]:  030  [055]: 1003
REMARKS:
The 0600 UTC position over the Van Diemen Gulf is based on Warruwi radar and
surface observations. Observations from Bureau AWSs confirmed surface winds in
the 25-30 knot range as the LLCC crossed the Cobourg Peninsula from north to
south. Merged radar animation indicates rotation and segments of spiral bands
near the LLCC.

Recent satellite imagery shows an area of deep convection sheared southwest of
the LLCC with banding features east of the centre along the NT north coast.
CIMSS shows 20-30 knot vertical wind shear over the system, which together with
land interaction, continues to limit the low's development. Dvorak analysis is
based on a shear pattern, with the LLCC about 1deg SW of the cold cloud giving a
DT of 2.5. Based on a weakening trend, the adjusted MET=2.0. FT based on MET,
but CI held at 2.5 as the system remains over water, consistent with surface
observations.  

The system is expected to continue moving southwest and pass south of the Tiwi
Islands under the influence of the subtropical ridge over WA. The low is
expected to experience slightly lower vertical wind shear, allowing TC intensity
to be reached Wednesday evening once the low moves into the Timor Sea.  The
cyclone may strengthen slightly but remain at category 1 intensity as it passes
close to the Kimberley region of WA on Thursday.

In the longer term, the combination of increased vertical wind shear and dry air
is likely to weaken the system below cyclone intensity during Friday, well north
of the WA Pilbara coast.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1400 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

图片:BOM 20170411 06UTC.png


 

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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发布于:2017-04-12 08:33

图片:sh962017_17041112.gif


WTXS21 PGTW 111730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101721Z APR 17//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED (WTXS21 PGTW
101730)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 101730) THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 131.7E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
AN 111313Z AMSU-B METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THAT THE
DISTURBANCE HAS DEGRADED CONSIDERABLY AND NO LONGER HAS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AN 111226Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER LAND WITH PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT
WINDS, WITH SOME 30 KNOT WINDS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A POOR ENVIRONMENT DUE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS), BUT OFFSET BY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST, BUT ARE NO LONGER IN AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
DOWNGRADED TO LOW. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.//
NNNN
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发布于:2017-04-12 13:13
昨天提到过系统底层中心或许完好,今天看可见光果然如此,高层云系散了之后LLCC还是很明显的。BOM最新一报提到系统受陆地、高风切和高层干空气的影响,没有明显发展,而且随着系统西南移动进入陆地,底层也会受南侧干空气侵蚀。后期随着季风槽减弱,副高脊在南侧重建,系统转向偏西方向移动进入帝汶海,会有所发展,但时间窗口很短,官方预测不看好加强成为热带气旋级别。周四干空气会截断底层水汽,周五系统会再度受到高风切影响,命名困难。

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0304 UTC 12/04/2017
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 27U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.4S
Longitude: 131.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [213 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1006 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: Not available due to system over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  12/0600: 12.8S 130.3E:     040 [080]:  025  [045]: 1003
+12:  12/1200: 13.0S 129.5E:     055 [100]:  030  [055]: 1002
+18:  12/1800: 13.3S 128.7E:     065 [125]:  030  [055]: 1002
+24:  13/0000: 13.7S 127.6E:     080 [145]:  030  [055]: 1000
+36:  13/1200: 14.4S 125.1E:     100 [185]:  030  [055]:  998
+48:  14/0000: 15.2S 122.5E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]: 1002
+60:  14/1200: 15.8S 120.4E:     140 [255]:  030  [055]: 1003
+72:  15/0000: 16.1S 118.9E:     155 [290]:  030  [055]: 1004
+96:  16/0000: 16.2S 116.9E:     200 [370]:  025  [045]: 1004
+120: 17/0000: 17.7S 117.6E:     290 [535]:  025  [045]: 1004
REMARKS:
The 0000 UTC position just northeast of Darwin is made with fair confidence
based on radar and surface observations. Radar indicates segments of weak spiral
bands rotating around a weak low level centre. Dvorak DT could not be determined
due to system over land. Latest ASCAT pass at 0112Z shows an area of 25 knot
winds to the southwest of the system. However, winds closer to the system centre
due to land interaction has been reduced to 20 knots based on nearby surface
observations.

The current environment is unfavourable for significant development of the
system due to a combination of land interaction and high vertical wind shear.
CIMSS wind shear at 0000Z estimates easterly shear of 30-40 knots across the
system. The low is located north of the upper level ridge and remains in an area
of upper divergence. TPW and latest atmospheric sounding from Darwin shows the
circulation is within an area of deep moisture in the lower levels but dry air
is starting to encroach in the upper levels. Much drier air is located in the
lower levels just to the south of the system and this may get ingested into the
system as it tracks southwest.

Recent motion to the south has been due to a mid-level high centred to the east.
A new ridge is expected to develop over central Australia and in combination
with weakening monsoonal winds, the system will be steered with a SW to W
motion. NWP is in good agreement leading to a high confidence in the forecast
track. This track should take the low over open water over the Timor Sea today
and approach the Kimberley coast on Thursday. The low will continue tracking
towards the SW until Friday before the system curves around the ridge ahead of
an approaching trough.

As the low moves over the Timor Sea, NWP forecasts a slightly more favourable
wind shear environment. Therefore there is some potential for the low to deepen
but the system is unlikely to reach tropical cyclone strength. During Thursday
NWP also shows that the northwest moisture source is cut off with dry air
wrapping around the W and N sectors, which may prevent any further development.
From Friday the combination of increased vertical wind shear and dry air is
likely to weaken the system further. An additional limitation to development may
be land interaction.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.

图片:BOM 20170412 03UTC.png


 

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


图片:WMBds247.png

图片:WMBds247 (1).png

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发布于:2017-04-13 15:11
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 13 April 2017
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 16 April 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

At 11am WST a tropical low was located near 13.8S 126.1E, about 80 kilometres northwest of Kalumburu. The low is forecast to continue tracking west southwest over the next few days to be north of the Pilbara by Sunday. It may start tracking towards the Pilbara coast on Monday and make landfall Monday night, but is unlikely to reach tropical cyclone intensity.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:Low.
Saturday:Low.
Sunday:Low.

图片:BOM 20170413 00UTC.png



图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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