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[SH(16-17)]新喀里多尼亚以北三级强热带气旋“库克”(20F/16P.Cook) - 稳步发展,南下影响群岛,转温后直袭新西兰 - FMS:85KT JTWC:90KT

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更多 发布于:2017-04-05 23:04
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95P INVEST 170405 1200  12.1S  176.1E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20170405.1450.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.95PINVEST.15kts-NAmb-121S-1761E.100pc.jpg



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发布于:2017-04-05 23:24
FQPS01 NFFN 050600
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and
120W
issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Apr 050800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNINGGALE WARNING 009 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 050710
UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19F [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.9S 170.6W AT
050600UTC. TD19F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. POSITION
FAIR.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 90 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES
AWAY FROM TD19F CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OVER WATERS ONLY.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE DEPRESSION.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 008.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Apr 060600 UTC.

 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19F [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.9S 170.6W AT
050600UTC. TD19F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. POSITION
FAIR.

LOW L CENTRE [1005HPA] ANLAYSED NEAR 12.0S 173.0E AT 050600UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSTION POOR.
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发布于:2017-04-06 08:09
WWPS21 NFFN 052100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 052330 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD19F [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 20.2S 170.4W AT
052100UTC. TD19F MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 03 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD BASED
ON GOES-15 VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

LLCC EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED AND DISPLACED TO SOUTHEAST
OF LLCC. ORGANISATION POOR. SYSTEM LIES EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN A
DIFFLUENT REGION AND IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.


*********************************************************************
***************
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD20F [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 11.6S 175.6W
AT 052100UTC. TD20F CURRENTLY SLOW MOVING BUT IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARDS. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 SAT
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS NOT
INCREASED OR DEEPEN MUCH IN PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER OUTFLOW CENTRE.
SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER  INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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发布于:2017-04-07 09:09

ABPW10 PGTW 062230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/062230Z-070600ZAPR2017//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061351ZAPR2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 061200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.8S 169.8W, APPROXIMATELY 102 NM SOUTH OF NIUE, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 061500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.9S 171.6E, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. A 061612Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING TO BE
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW, WITH AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
ORGANIZING RATHER QUICKLY. THE CIMSS 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS INCREASED VORTICITY WITH IMPROVED SYMMETRY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER AN AREA
OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS, AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOTS). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH STEADY
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1)//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair (2).jpg

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发布于:2017-04-07 14:13

图片:sh9517.gif


WTPS21 PGTW 070530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0S 172.1E TO 15.9S 170.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2S 172.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 171.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 172.0E, APPROXIMATELY
455 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 070311Z SSMI 37GHZ DEPICT DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION
AND FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, LIGHT
(10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS
THIS SYSTEM IN A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080530Z.//
NNNN
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发布于:2017-04-07 21:57
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD20F [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.8S 170.5E AT
070900UTC. TD20F CURRENTLY SLOW MOVING BUT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 SAT IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

ORGANIZATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED FROM THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH BANDS
TRYING TO WRAP ONTO SUPPOSED LLCC. CONVECTION REMIANS PERSISTANT IN
PAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST
AROUND 31 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
GRADUAL  INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
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发布于:2017-04-08 00:08

图片:65660.gif


WTPS11 NFFN 071500
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 071552 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20F CENTRE 1002HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 169.7E
AT 071200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANIZATION HAS GENERALLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH BANDS
TRYING TO WRAP ONTO SUPPOSED LLCC. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH
CLOUD TOP COOLING. A MODERATELY RAPID DEEPENING IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS IS EXPECTED. TD20F LIES IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WEAK SHEAR
WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. SST
AROUND 31 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED MAINLY BY
THE NORTHEASTERLIES NORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IT WILL POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT
TO VANUATU AND LATER NEW CALEDONIA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING A WSW TRACK.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 15.1S 169.1E MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 16.0S 169.0E MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 16.7S 169.0E MOV SSW AT 4 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 17.2S 168.9E MOV SSW AT 4 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 072000 UTC.
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发布于:2017-04-08 03:08

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TPPS11 PGTW 071845
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95P (E OF SOLOMON ISLANDS)
B. 07/1800Z
C. 14.28S
D. 168.25E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   MARTINEZ

TXPS22 KNES 071804
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95P)
B.  07/1730Z
C.  14.9S
D.  169.0E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACCOMPANIED
BY PERSISTENT COLD CONVECTION THAT WRAPS 3.5/10 ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING
A DT=2.0 PT=2.0 MET=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...FISHER
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发布于:2017-04-08 11:26
WTPS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 168.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 168.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 16.0S 167.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 17.2S 167.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 17.9S 167.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 18.8S 166.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 21.9S 167.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 24.8S 170.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 27.9S 174.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 168.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON RECENT FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 172256Z GMI IMAGE WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 2221Z
PARTIAL ASCAT METOP-A IMAGE SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 16P IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30C) UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF TWO RIDGES,
ONE TO THE EAST AND ONE TO THE WEST. THESE TWO RIDGES WILL STEER THE
STORM GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH ALONG AN S-CURVE SHAPED TRACK. THESE
RIDGES WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS RESULTING IN LIKELY NEAR-TERM
RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
OF 90 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, BEGINNING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETING BY TAU 120. THE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 070530).//
NNNN

图片:sh1617.gif

图片:16P_080000sams.jpg

[9914dan于2017-04-08 18:53编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2017-04-08 12:52
EC 07/12支持繼續加強,
將擦過/登陸新喀里多尼亞本島.

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