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论坛版主-副热带高压
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美国南部4.1-4.6日强对流爆发,已确认:EF2:14 EF1:42 EF0:31

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-04-02 13:15

图片:day2otlk_1730.gif

图片:day2probotlk_1730_any.gif


  Dangerous severe thunderstorms capable of strong tornadoes,
   extensive wind damage and hail are possible
beginning Sunday morning
   east of I-35 in Texas and developing eastward across Louisiana
   throughout the day and into the night. Severe storms are also
   possible across the Arklatex during the day and into western
   Mississippi by Monday morning.
又一次MDT,而且这次紫区内包含了不少大城市,比如休斯顿,加尔维斯顿等,报文措辞也比较严厉,看看是不是真的会很精彩吧
[beta于2017-04-12 17:01编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2017-04-02 13:19
龙卷风预警

SEL7

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 107
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1025 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of
     South-central and southwest Texas

   * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1025 PM
     until 600 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
       inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...At first, a pair of thunderstorms moving out of Mexico
   will pose a threat for large, damaging hail and severe gusts.  With
   time, additional storm development is expected on either side of the
   international border, moving into an environment increasingly
   favorable for a tornado or two as well.  See SPC mesoscale
   discussion 396 for initial meteorological reasoning.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
   either side of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Del Rio TX to
   45 miles east southeast of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
   storm motion vector 24025.

图片:ww0107_radar.gif

图片:360截图20170402131846578.jpg

我呢,就送你两个字,找茬!
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2楼#
发布于:2017-04-02 13:20
爆出多个涡旋信号和冰雹

图片:360截图20170402132001796.jpg

图片:360截图20170402131924656.jpg


且出现两个红色回转

图片:360截图20170402132159812.jpg

[RFD于2017-04-02 13:22编辑了帖子]
我呢,就送你两个字,找茬!
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3楼#
发布于:2017-04-02 15:10

图片:day1otlk_1200.gif

图片:day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif


 ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of Texas
   eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley today and into tonight.
   A concentrated area of significant wind damage is likely near and
   north of the I-20 corridor in east Texas and Louisiana. The risk
   for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/damaging, will probably
   maximize near and south of I-20 in Texas and Louisiana, along with
   the threat for hail.


Day1预报,中心区域往东挪了不少,主体反而变成路易斯安娜了,龙卷概率15%,还是很高的
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4楼#
发布于:2017-04-03 07:13
牛逼了

图片:360截图20170403071247421.jpg

图片:360截图20170403071235984.jpg

图片:360截图20170403071255015.jpg

一大堆紫区



Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 110



SEL0

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 110
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   135 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of
     Central and Northern Louisiana
     West-central Mississippi
     East Texas

   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
     900 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include...
     Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected
     Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
       inches in diameter likely
     Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...A dangerous combination of parameters suggests that
   tornadoes will occur over parts of east TX, northern and central LA,
   and eastern MS this afternoon and evening.  Strong tornadoes are a
   concern.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 85 miles west of Fort Polk LA to 65
   miles northeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 109...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
   storm motion vector 23035.




概率爆表;95%!!!

图片:360截图20170403071924531.jpg

图片:360截图20170403072004031.jpg


另外出现极强旋转信号跟65kt的直线强风报告

图片:360截图20170403072310187.jpg

[RFD于2017-04-03 07:26编辑了帖子]
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5楼#
发布于:2017-04-03 17:30
亚历山大龙卷风做出了最高EF1上限的风毁

图片:360截图20170403174327640.jpg

图片:360截图20170403174315000.jpg


路易安那州大型龙卷风

图片:360截图20170403175015640.jpg

图片:360截图20170403175024734.jpg

图片:360截图20170403175055265.jpg


[RFD于2017-04-03 17:52编辑了帖子]
我呢,就送你两个字,找茬!
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6楼#
发布于:2017-04-04 10:51

图片:yesterday_filtered.gif


昨天有事没空关注...但活动水平其实远不如预报,路易斯安娜州确认的龙卷中目前最强的只有一个入门级EF2,另外还有一只EF1造成两人死亡
.Woodworth Tornado...

Rating:                   EF-2
Estimated Peak Wind:      115 MPH
Path length /Statute/:    5.5 Miles
Path width /Maximum/:     800 Yards
Fatalities:               0
Injuries:                 0

Start date:               Apr 02 2017
Start time:               155 pm CDT
Start location:           3 WSW Woodworth/Rapides/LA
Start Lat/Lon:            31.1255/-92.5368

End date:                 Apr 02 2017
End time:                 210 pm CDT
End location:             5 NNW Woodworth/Rapides/LA
End lat/lon:              31.2057/-92.5313

Survey Summary: The tornado began near Bayou Clear and moved north across Bayou
Clear Road where 4 homes were damaged by falling trees. The tornado continued
north across Castor Plunge Road where it reached its maximum width of around
half a mile. Many pine trees were snapped or uprooted. The tornado dissipated
near Bayou Boeuf. Most of the path was in the Kisatchie National Forest. This
tornado was seen and filmed by many people in the area.
[beta于2017-04-04 10:58编辑了帖子]
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7楼#
发布于:2017-04-04 11:03
RFD锛氀抢酱罅矸缱龀隽俗罡逧F1上限的风毁
路易安那州大型龙卷风
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘

图片:C8bgwMNWsAMi663.jpg


补个Alexandria龙卷的雷达,雷达上看倒是不弱但风毁就真不怎么样了
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8楼#
发布于:2017-04-04 11:05

图片:today_filtered.gif


佐治亚州今天龙卷不少,但从报告字眼来看主要也就是倒倒树什么的...但是这个倒树的面积倒是不小,也不一定就很弱。个别房屋受到了破坏但是没什么人受伤,个人估计最强可能有下等EF3的样子
[beta于2017-04-04 11:08编辑了帖子]
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9楼#
发布于:2017-04-05 20:36

图片:day1otlk_1200.gif

图片:day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif


又一个MDT+龙卷概率15%!!希望这次不要像上一波那样令人失望...另外这两波其实不是同一次天气系统导致的过程了但是为了保持连续性还是放在这个帖子里讨论
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