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[SH(16-17)]纽埃东南热带低压19F(14P) - 中心外露,因风场升格,在高纬徘徊数日,维持副热性并带有烈风

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更多 发布于:2017-04-02 10:36
93P INVEST 170402 0000  15.5S  166.0W SHEM   15  1010

图片:20170402.0222.goes-15.vis.1km.93P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.15.5S.166W.100pc.jpg


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发布于:2017-04-03 01:02
19F?
FQPS01 NFFN 020600
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and 120W
issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Apr 020800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNINGNIL

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Apr 030600 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 19F CENTRE [1006HPA] ANLAYSED NEAR 13.2S 168.0W AT 020600UTC. SLOW MOVING.
POSTION POOR.

LOW L2 CENTRE [1005HPA] ANLAYSED NEAR 12.0S 175.0E AT 020600UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSTION
POOR.

LOW L3 CENTRE [1003HPA] ANLAYSED NEAR 24.6S 159.0W AT 020600UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSTION POOR.
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发布于:2017-04-03 08:29
021800

93P INVEST 170402 1800  13.0S  169.8W SHEM   20  1006
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD19F CENTRE [1005HPA] ANLAYSED NEAR 12.0S 170.9W AT 021800UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.
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发布于:2017-04-03 21:34
JTWC:LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 031300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031300Z-040600ZAPR2017//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.8S 169.3E, APPROXIMATELY 87 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO,
AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 030914Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP FLARING CONVECTION IS DISPLACED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AN
ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). STRONG (25-35 KNOTS)
CONVERGENT WINDS ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, AS EVIDENCED IN A
030915Z METOP-A 25KM ASCAT PASS. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO DEPICTS 15-20
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LLC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PAGO PAGO
REPORTED WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND A
24-HOUR PRESSURE DECREASE OF 2 MILLIBARS. ALTHOUGH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW
EXISTS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT WINDS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD, HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST IS CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE AND MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON CURRENT
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS AND RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED A LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg


图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif

图片:ir-animated.gif

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发布于:2017-04-04 22:21
JTWC:MEDIUM
TPPS10 PGTW 041451

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93P (SE OF PAGOPAGO)

B. 04/1423Z

C. 19.25S

D. 169.55W

E. FIVE/GOES15

F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
1.5 DT. PT/MET N/A. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   04/0906Z  18.05S  169.58W  GPMI


   CHAPPOTIN

图片:ir-animated.gif

图片:93P_gefs_latest.png



ABPW10 PGTW 041400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041400Z-050600ZAPR2017//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
169.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 169.7W, APPROXIMATELY 163 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 040346Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS
DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 032115Z
ASCAT PARTIAL PASS REVEALED 20-25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WITH WEAKER WINDS TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.////
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg


 
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 19F [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.2S 169.4W AT
040600UTC. TD19F MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED
ON HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PRESISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
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发布于:2017-04-05 06:21
ASCAT (METOP-B) 042056来看,就差西北侧

图片:WMBds7.png

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发布于:2017-04-05 09:11
JTWC:TCFA
WTPS21 PGTW 050130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.4S 170.1W TO 22.6S 170.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.4S 170.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.6S 169.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 170.1W, APPROXIMATELY
300 NM NORTHEAST OF TONGA. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 042056Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 042058Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060130Z.//
NNNN

图片:sh9317.gif

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发布于:2017-04-05 22:57
WTPS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 20.1S 171.1W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 171.1W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 20.4S 172.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 20.5S 172.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 20.7S 173.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 21.1S 173.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 171.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 91 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 050925Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A DEFINED
BUT PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING,
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, AND SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITIES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 050927Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALING 35 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP IN ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND 28C SSTS, HOWEVER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES REMAIN MODERATE-STRONG (20 TO 25
KNOTS). TC 14P IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED STR TO THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN UNDER THIS STEERING INFLUENCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CYCLONE MAY HAVE A SHORT WINDOW OF WEAK INTENSIFICATION WHILE
OUTFLOW AND SSTS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER,
BEYOND TAU 24, AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO
RECURVE TC 14P SHARPLY SOUTHWARD INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER VWS AND
COLDER SSTS RESULTING IN FULL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE UPPER-
LEVEL STEERING PATTERN LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN

图片:sh1417.gif



TPPS10 PGTW 051450

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN)

B. 05/1423Z

C. 20.18S

D. 170.52W

E. THREE/GOES15

F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. 65NM SHEAR YIELDS 2.0 DT.
MET/PT 2.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   CHAPPOTIN

图片:LATEST.jpg




图片:14P_051200sair.jpg


 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD19F [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 20.0S 170.9W AT
050900UTC. TD19F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON GOES-15 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.


LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO EAST OF
LLCC. ORGANISATION POOR. SYSTEM LIES EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN A
DIFFLUENT REGION AND IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
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发布于:2017-04-06 07:29
JTWC编号的同时KNES其实已经直接给TOO WEAK宣告死亡

TXPS21 KNES 051154
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93P)
B.  05/1122Z
C.  20.1S
D.  171.0W
E.  FIVE/GOES-W
F.  TOO WEAK
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LACK OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITHIN 1.25 DEGREES OF THE CENTER. THIS IS THE
FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS CONVECTION PERSISTS FOR 12 HOURS OR MORE.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...GAETANO
 

又一个没到T2.5但风场合格编号的TC

TPPS10 PGTW 052112
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN)
B. 05/2023Z
C. 20.38S
D. 170.40W
E. FIVE/GOES15
F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .10 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT
YIELDING A 1.5. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   LEMBKE

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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发布于:2017-04-07 21:57
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD19F [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 21.8S 168.6W
AT 070900UTC. TD19F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8
SAT IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

LLCC EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED AND DISPLACED TO SOUTHEAST
OF LLCC. ORGANISATION POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A UPPER TROUGH IN HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT INTIALLLY
WESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS WITH VERY LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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