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[SH(16-17)]珊瑚海四级强热带气旋“黛比”(24U/13P.Debbie) - 于28日中午登陆Airlie Beach附近 - BOM:105KT JTWC:105KT

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-03-22 10:16
BOM路径图

图片:qldtc20170325SnnQueenslandnSevWxnTCn2016_2017nDebbie-28Mar2017nWebsummaryndebbie



云图特写
via Wikipedia)
Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie about to make landfall over Queensland at peak intensity early on 28 March 2017

图片:Debbie_2017-03-28_0010Z.jpg



编扰资讯

91P INVEST 170322 0000  11.5S  152.8E SHEM   15   NA

图片:QQ20170322-0.jpg



Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 22 March 2017
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 25 March 2017.
Potential Cyclones:

A low pressure system southeast of the Papua New Guinea mainland is forecast to develop over the next few days while drifting slowly southwest. Conditions are expected to become more favourable for tropical cyclone development in the coming days, particularly from Saturday onwards.
At this stage, the likelihood for a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region is moderate - this rating should continue into next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Low
Saturday:Moderate

扫描二维码,查看更多台风内容!

[颱風巨爵于2017-04-05 17:26编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2017-03-22 18:58
ECMWF预期成为2015年Quang以来BoM责任区首个强热带气旋,也预期2015年Marcia以来首个登陆昆士兰的强热带气旋。

图片:螢幕快照 2017-03-22 18.56.28.png


登陆强度在950hPa、80kt左右。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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iam最小值
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发布于:2017-03-22 21:50
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.4S 154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN THE AREA. A
220827Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH
VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION. A 221058Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A SYMMETRIC
BUT WEAK 10-15 KNOT LLCC AT THE SURFACE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-25 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING DEVELOPMENT BEYOND THE 72 HOUR TIMEFRAME AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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发布于:2017-03-23 14:15

   (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 154.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 154.1E, APPROXIMATELY
290 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 222252Z AMSU-B METOP A MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW PATCHES OF
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH INTENSIFICATION GRADUALLY OCCURRING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

图片:abpwsair.jpg




Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 23 March 2017
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 26 March 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low pressure system is located southeast of the Papua New Guinea mainland. It is forecast to drift southward for the next 24 to 36 hours, before turning more westward towards the tropical Queensland coast late Friday or on Saturday.
Conditions are favourable for this system to develop, and the probability of it forming into a tropical cyclone will steadily increase into the weekend.
This system is likely to make landfall on the north tropical Queensland coast early next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:Low
Saturday:Moderate
Sunday:High

图片:20170323.042733.h8.ahi.Visible.tc1791PINVEST.covg100p0.himawarinesdisstar.res1km




两大数值都支持成旋,区别在于强度的强弱,路径趋向昆士兰州东部沿海的中北部地带。
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07051a18
强热带风暴
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4楼#
发布于:2017-03-23 17:51
EC 23/00Z ENSEMBLE.
目前預料將於26/18Z左右登陸昆士蘭州東北.

图片:EEMN_2.png


图片:A_3.png

[07051a18于2017-03-23 18:02编辑了帖子]
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superstorm
热带风暴
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发布于:2017-03-23 20:29
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?product=mpsatwnd&storm_identifier=SH912017&product_filename=2017SH91_MPSATWND_201703230600


或将严重影响澳东北部,汤斯维尔请注意
 
中文名称  汤斯维尔
外文名称  Townsville
所属地区  澳大利亚昆士兰州
地理位置  位于罗斯河口,濒克利夫兰湾,距离布里斯本1300公里
面积  140.2平方公里  (54.1平方英里)
人口  175,542人(2008年)181,743(2009年)
气候条件  热带雨林气候
地方政府  City of Townsville
区域郡   Elphinstone
[iam最小值于2017-03-23 21:45编辑了帖子]
以后去海南工作,那里才有大台风可以看
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6楼#
发布于:2017-03-23 21:46
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 154.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 152.2E, APPROXIMATELY
161 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230813Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW PATCHES
OF CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A STILL SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SOME BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
INTENSIFICATION GRADUALLY OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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发布于:2017-03-24 12:24
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0408 UTC 24/03/2017
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 151.4E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: south [173 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1003 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1009 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  24/0600: 16.5S 151.6E:     070 [135]:  025  [045]: 1006
+12:  24/1200: 16.8S 151.4E:     085 [155]:  030  [055]: 1003
+18:  24/1800: 16.9S 151.3E:     090 [165]:  035  [065]:  999
+24:  25/0000: 17.1S 151.0E:     100 [185]:  040  [075]:  997
+36:  25/1200: 17.2S 150.6E:     100 [185]:  045  [085]:  994
+48:  26/0000: 17.5S 149.8E:     110 [205]:  065  [120]:  980
+60:  26/1200: 17.8S 148.8E:     120 [220]:  080  [150]:  968
+72:  27/0000: 18.2S 147.4E:     130 [240]:  085  [155]:  964
+96:  28/0000: 18.9S 144.6E:     160 [295]:  045  [085]:  983
+120: 29/0000: 19.9S 142.0E:     320 [590]:  030  [055]: 1004
REMARKS:
Position fix is considered fair based on a combination of animated visible
imagery, Willis Island radar and peripheral surface observations. The tropical
low has been showing signs of development over the past 24 hours. Multiple
episodes of deep convection, showing some curvature, have developed near the
centre in the past 12 to 24 hours, although they have remained somewhat
transient in nature. Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band wrapping 0.4 to
0.5 in both Vis and IR imagery, yileding a DT of 2.5. Given the transient nature
of this convection though, the FT was biased towards the MET and PT of 2.0.

The low is currently being steered to the south by the combination of a mid
level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the
Tasman Sea. During the weekend, this trough is expected to move further east,
and a new mid level ridge should build to the south of the system, leading to a
change to a westerly track, taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. All
model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there are
significant differences in forward speed amongst the guidance, which affects not
only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to
intensify over the water.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over SSTs of 29 to
30 deg C. Upper level outflow is unrestricted in all quadrants, and may become
enhanced to the south due to the weak interaction with the upper trough.
Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to
landfall on the Queensland coast, and it is reasonably likely that the system
will have sufficient time over water to reach category 3 status. A period of
more rapid intensification cannot be ruled out, which would lead to a higher
category system at landfall.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0730 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

图片:BOM 20170324 00UTC备用.png


 
WTPS22 PGTW 240130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5S 151.7E TO 17.9S 150.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 151.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 151.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 151.5E, APPROXIMATELY
100 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232049Z MHS NOAA-18 89GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS SHOW CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS LIKELY WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS
SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. BASED ON IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250130Z.
//
NNNN

图片:sh9117.gif

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07051a18
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8楼#
发布于:2017-03-24 16:05
EC上調91P登陸強度,
新報登陸位置比早前預報稍南及稍遲.
Townsville可能吹起持續颶風.


EC 24/00Z決定報風圈:

图片:A_3.png

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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
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9楼#
发布于:2017-03-24 20:36

图片:20170324.0900.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.91PINVEST.30kts-997mb-165S-1513E.100pc.jpg


TPPS10 PGTW 240921
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91P (NE OF AUSTRALIA)
B. 24/0900Z
C. 16.62S
D. 151.91E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   24/0401Z  16.73S  151.33E  GPMI

   LEMBKE
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