9914dan
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[SH(16-17)]科科斯群岛东南一级热带气旋“迦勒”(23U/12S.Caleb) - 诞生于季风槽,强度变化不大,在苏门答腊以南海域徘徊

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更多 发布于:2017-03-21 10:43
BOM路径图

图片:watc20170322operationalbesttrackfinal.png



编扰资讯

90S INVEST 170321 0000  11.9S   97.3E SHEM   15  1010

图片:20170321.0400.meteo-7.vis.90S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.11.9S.97.3E.100pc.jpg


Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:13 pm WST on Monday 20 March 2017
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 23 March 2017.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough lies near the Cocos Islands and Christmas Island. A tropical
low may form in the trough near Cocos Islands over the next couple days and then
remain in the vicinity of Cocos Islands until later Saturday when it starts
moving away to the southwest. The system is expected to strengthen over the next
few days, with the risk of it developing into a tropical cyclone increasing
towards the end of the week.

Likelihood of this system or another system becoming a tropical cyclone in the
Western Region on:
Tuesday: Very Low
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Low

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[9914dan于2017-03-31 10:28编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2017-03-21 16:29
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:06 pm WST on Tuesday 21 March 2017
for the period until midnight WST Friday 24 March 2017.

Potential Cyclones:  

A weak tropical low lies near 14.7S 117.2E (about 650km north northwest of port
Hedland). It is forecast to move southwest and then south towards the Pilbara
coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Model guidance does not develop it into a
tropical cyclone and maintains a tropical low before it crosses the Pilbara
coast during Friday.
The environment is not extremely favourable for development into a tropical
cyclone. However, if the system does show good development despite the
environment there is a chance it could reach category 1 intensity during Friday
before landfall.
From Saturday the system will weaken as it moves south over land.

Likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Wednesday: Low,
                                   Thursday: Moderate,
                                   Friday: Moderate.
The monsoon trough lies along 12S between Cocos Islands and Christmas Island. A
tropical low is expected to form in the trough near 12S 95-100E (Cocos Islands
vicinity) on Wednesday but should move away to the southeast. The system is
expected to develop on Thursday with an increased risk of becoming a tropical
cyclone on Friday over open waters.

Likelihood of this system or another system becoming a tropical cyclone in the
Western Region on:
                                   Wednesday: Low,
                                   Thursday: Low,
                                   Friday: Moderate

图片:vis0-lalo.gif

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发布于:2017-03-22 11:38
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.0S 98.0E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 211204Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS
DISPLAYS FORMATIVE CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
RECENT 211445Z ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS THE ASSESSMENT OF THE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND SUGGESTS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION COULD OCCUR QUICKLY
IF THE STRONG MONSOONAL WINDS BEGIN TO WRAP MORE TIGHTLY INTO THE
AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH 10-20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

图片:WMBas57.png

[iam最小值于2017-03-22 11:44编辑了帖子]
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07051a18
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发布于:2017-03-22 17:17
EC 22/00Z 集合

預報強度不佳, 也就TS-C1左右.

图片:EEMN_2.png

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meow
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发布于:2017-03-22 18:50
07051a18锛欵C 22/00Z 集合

預報強度不佳, 也就TS-C1左右.
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
对于本年度BoM责任区,有名字就很好了。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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发布于:2017-03-22 22:52

图片:20170322.1200.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.90SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-108S-991E.100pc.jpg


TPPS10 PGTW 221247
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NE OF COCOS ISLAND)
B. 22/1200Z
C. 11.00S
D. 98.78E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.0 DT. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   22/1150Z  11.03S  98.90E  SSMS

   BERMEA

TXXS25 KNES 221202
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90S)
B.  22/1130Z
C.  10.9S
D.  98.9E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL.
PT=1.0. MET=1.0.  FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    22/0539Z 10.2S 99.4E AMSR2

...SCHWARTZ
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发布于:2017-03-23 04:52
IDY21010
40:3:1:04:30S085E25045:11:00
SECURITE
High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
At 1802UTC 22 March 2017

GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION AT 1800UTC
Tropical low 997hPa near 11S100E. Forecast 994hPa near 12S100E at 230000UTC,
995hPa near 12S101E at 230600UTC, 995hPa near 13S101E at 231200UTC and 995hPa
near 13S102E at 231800UTC.


AREA AFFECTED
Bounded by 10S098E 13S099E 13S104E 10S102E 10S098E.

FORECAST
Northwest quarter winds 30/40 knots within 120nm of Tropical Low in northeast
quadrant.

Rough to very rough seas. Moderate swell.
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发布于:2017-03-23 13:14

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0119 UTC 23/03/2017
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.7S
Longitude: 99.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [150 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1001 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  23/0600: 12.2S 100.0E:     040 [080]:  035  [065]:  996
+12:  23/1200: 12.7S 100.4E:     055 [100]:  035  [065]:  996
+18:  23/1800: 13.1S 100.7E:     065 [125]:  035  [065]:  996
+24:  24/0000: 13.5S 100.9E:     080 [145]:  035  [065]:  996
+36:  24/1200: 14.3S 101.3E:     100 [180]:  040  [075]:  994
+48:  25/0000: 14.9S 101.7E:     120 [220]:  040  [075]:  993
+60:  25/1200: 15.2S 101.8E:     140 [255]:  040  [075]:  993
+72:  26/0000: 15.4S 101.8E:     155 [290]:  035  [065]:  995
+96:  27/0000: 15.1S 101.0E:     200 [370]:  035  [065]:  996
+120: 28/0000: 15.1S 100.1E:     290 [535]:  030  [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
The low has developed well overnight, with deep convection persisting to the
west of the low level cyclonic circulation. Dvorak analysis yields a DT of 2.5,
based on a CB with curvature averaging 0.5-0.6 degrees over the past 6 hours.
MET is 2.0 based on a developing trend, but FT is set to 2.5 due to the fact
that the cloud features are clear-cut. The system intensity is 30 knots, but
winds on the northern side are reaching 35 knots due to the affects of a monsoon
surge.

An ASCAT pass from 1509 UTC showed winds generally 25-30 knots on the southern
side, reaching closer to 35 knots on the northern side with the monsoon surge.

The system has been aided by good upper divergence, with outflow evident to the
north and south. Shear at this stage is quite high, with 30-40 knots near and to
the north of the system centre. Shear is much lower to the south of the system
centre.

The system is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction over the
coming 48 hours, due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level
trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid
level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday
onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction.

The system should gradually intensify over the next 24 to 48 hours as it moves
into an area of lower vertical wind shear. However, ocean heat content becomes
more marginal near 15S, and after Saturday the system becomes disconnected from
the monsoon flow [and associated moisture]. So the expectation is for peak
intensity to be reached on Saturday as a 40 to 45 knot system, before a gradual
weakening trend commences.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/0730 UTC by Perth TCWC.

图片:IDW60280.png




图片:LATEST.jpg



图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif




形态自凌晨开始明显改善,深对流爆发在LLCC的西侧。北侧有季风加成所以有烈风,最新的风场扫描已出现45kt,JTWC有点迟钝了。
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发布于:2017-03-23 14:16
TPPS10 PGTW 230301
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NE OF COCOS ISLANDS)
B. 23/0300Z
C. 11.70S
D. 100.15E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. XT1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS DT OF 1.5. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   HART
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meow
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发布于:2017-03-23 14:57
命名Caleb,目前预测维持一级强度。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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