颱風巨爵
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[SH(16-17)]黑德兰港西北无名一级热带气旋22U(99S) - 近岸结构显著改善,正面吹袭黑德兰港,实测持续70km/h、海压993.9hPa,发展太迟事后升格 - BOM:45KT

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更多 发布于:2017-03-19 14:46
BOM路径图

图片:watc20170320Znnfilesntropical_cyclonesn2016_2017nAU201617_22Unbesttrack_22U4.png



SSD云图特写

图片:image13.GIF


上陆雷达 (BOM)

图片:99S landfall radar.gif


黑德兰港天气实测

图片:Port Hedland observations.png



编扰资讯 (NRL)

99S INVEST 170319 0600  12.0S  121.2E SHEM   15   NA
99S INVEST 170319 0600  12.0S  121.2E SHEM   15  1010

图片:20170319.063733.h8.ahi.Visible.tc1799SINVEST.covg100p0.himawarinesdisstar.res1km


Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough currently lies over waters south of Indonesia and across the Timor Sea. A tropical low is likely to form tonight or tomorrow in the trough a long way north of Broome. It is then forecast to move slowly west before turning south on Tuesday and Wednesday. The risk of the system developing into a tropical cyclone increases over the next few days, with a Moderate risk on Wednesday. The risk increases to High towards the end of the week as the system tracks towards the Pilbara coast.

Likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Low
Wednesday:Moderate

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[颱風巨爵于2017-04-29 08:02编辑了帖子]
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十載追風失意多,一笑看破風雲過。
yuwenhuang
热带风暴
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1楼#
发布于:2017-03-19 20:17
EC预报登陆澳洲前39KT,989百帕。

图片:未命名_.jpg

图片:顶顶顶.jpg

我是一个普普通通的上海风迷
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2楼#
发布于:2017-03-20 15:25
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:13 pm WST on Monday 20 March 2017
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 23 March 2017.

Potential Cyclones:  

A weak tropical low lies near 12.3S 119.4E (about 700km north northwest of
Broome). It is forecast to move slowly west and then south towards the Pilbara
coast. The risk of the system developing into a tropical cyclone increases over
the next few days, with a Moderate rating on Wednesday and a High rating on
Thursday. While there is some uncertainty in the forecast track, there is a
chance the system reaches the central or western Pilbara coast later Thursday or
Friday. There is also a chance the system moves slower and tracks to the west
before reaching the coast.

Likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Tuesday: Low
                                   Wednesday: Moderate
                                   Thursday: High

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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3楼#
发布于:2017-03-20 18:01

图片:20170320.0726.gpm.x.composite.99SINVEST.15kts-1005mb-138S-1190E.64pc.jpg



图片:abiosair.jpg


ABIO10 PGTW 200930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/200930Z-201800ZMAR2017//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.0S 118.7E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH OF ROWLEY SHOALS,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200726Z GMI COMPOSITE
IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SHARPLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA WHILE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1).//
NNNN
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4楼#
发布于:2017-03-21 16:26
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:06 pm WST on Tuesday 21 March 2017
for the period until midnight WST Friday 24 March 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

A weak tropical low lies near 14.7S 117.2E (about 650km north northwest of port
Hedland). It is forecast to move southwest and then south towards the Pilbara
coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Model guidance does not develop it into a
tropical cyclone and maintains a tropical low before it crosses the Pilbara
coast during Friday.
The environment is not extremely favourable for development into a tropical
cyclone. However, if the system does show good development despite the
environment there is a chance it could reach category 1 intensity during Friday
before landfall.
From Saturday the system will weaken as it moves south over land.

Likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Wednesday: Low,
                                   Thursday: Moderate,
                                   Friday: Moderate.

图片:BOM 20170321 06UTC.png


 

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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5楼#
发布于:2017-03-21 17:44
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 3:12 pm WST on Tuesday 21 March 2017

Headline:
A tropical low may impact the Pilbara coast on Thursday as a tropical cyclone.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: Wallal to Onslow including Karratha and Port Hedland.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per
hour
with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 130 kilometres of 15.3 degrees South 116.8 degrees East,
estimated to be 590 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 600
kilometres north of Karratha.
Movement: southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

The low is likely to move towards the south towards the Pilbara coast on
Wednesday and has a moderate chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity as
it nears the coast on Thursday.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Onslow and
Wallal during Thursday. Heavy rain is likely near the track.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises that there are no community alerts at present.
Communities between Wallal and Onslow should listen for the next advice.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Tuesday 21 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
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发布于:2017-03-22 04:56

图片:20170321.1800.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.99SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-166S-1167E.100pc.jpg


TPXS10 PGTW 211902
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99S (NE OF LEARMONTH)
B. 21/1800Z
C. 16.75S
D. 116.70E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   CHAPPOTIN

TXXS24 KNES 211804
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99S)
B.  21/1730Z
C.  16.7S
D.  116.7E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...SCHWARTZ
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7楼#
发布于:2017-03-22 11:36
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.2S 117.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 116.8E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM NORTHWEST OF ROWLEY SHOALS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
211347Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DISPLAYS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING
AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND A WELL DEFINED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

图片:abiosair.jpg


 

BOM已经停止对该系统发布Advice,认为不会发展成热带气旋。今早的风场扫描扫到了中心,但是周围风力较弱。

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 8:53 am WST on Wednesday 22 March 2017
Headline:
The Tropical Cyclone Watch has been CANCELLED as the low is now not expected to reach cyclone intensity.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Onslow to Wallal Downs.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 95 kilometres of 17.2 degrees South 116.5 degrees East, estimated to be 395 kilometres north of Karratha and 410 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland.

Movement: south at 11 kilometres per hour.

The low is forecast to track to the south towards the Pilbara coast but is now not expected to reach tropical cyclone intensity by the time it reaches the coast on Thursday.

Hazards:
GALES are no longer expected to affect the Pilbara coast.

A Severe Weather Warning is current for heavy rain along the Pilbara coast east of Karratha. Please refer to the warning for latest details.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises that there are no community alerts.

Next Advice:
No further advices will be issued for this system.

图片:BOM 20170322 00UTC.png


图片:WMBds57.png

[iam最小值于2017-03-22 11:46编辑了帖子]
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07051a18
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8楼#
发布于:2017-03-22 17:24
EC 22/00Z 集合
預報維持TD強度登陸.

图片:EEMN_2.png


图片:A_3.png

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9楼#
发布于:2017-03-23 07:36

图片:20170322.2030.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.99SINVEST.20kts-1007mb-191S-1173E.100pc.jpg


TPXS10 PGTW 222043
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99S (NE OF LEARMONTH)
B. 22/2030Z
C. 19.32S
D. 117.69E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS DT OF 1.5. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   HART
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