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[SH(16-17)]留尼汪西南中等热带风暴第7号“费尔南多”(11S.Fernando) - 高纬混名,甘当配角

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更多 发布于:2017-03-03 18:59
路径图

图片:SWI$07_20162017.png



云图特写
(via Wikipedia
Moderate Tropical Storm Fernando southeast of Madagascar on 14 March 2017

图片:Fernando_2017-03-14_0942Z.jpg



编扰资讯

97S INVEST 170303 0600   7.7S   84.2E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20170303.1230.meteo-7.ir.97S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.7.7S.84.2E.100pc.jpg



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9914dan
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发布于:2017-03-04 20:37
East of the Chagos Archipelago near 75E-85E :
No clockwise circulation can be detected, according to ascat data of 03h48Z there is a trough
between 75E and 82E along 8S, and the convective activity has not intensified during the last
24hours. A potential development should be slow to occur mainly because of a poor low level
convergence equatorwards. However, ECMWF ensemble prediction still develop a low pressure in
this area but the potential is very low.



图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_ind_8.png

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发布于:2017-03-05 01:31

图片:20170304.1130.msg1.x.vis1km.97SINVEST.15kts-1006mb-112S-827E.100pc.jpg


TXXS23 KNES 041422
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97S)
B.  04/1130Z
C.  11.7S
D.  83.1E
E.  FIVE/MET-8
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...INITIAL CLASSIFICATION FOR THIS SYSTEM. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS WITH A CURVED BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. LOW LEVEL CLOUD MOTION SUGGESTS
A BROAD CIRCULATION WHICH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
SHIELD. 2 TENTHS BANDING GIVES DT=1.0. MET AND PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...RUMINSKI
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发布于:2017-03-05 12:43

ABIO10 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/050300Z-051800ZMAR2017//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041951ZMAR2017//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050151ZMAR2017//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 041800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.7S 56.9E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS,
AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 042100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12S 130E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S 130E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 042155Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
INCREASED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 C). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO 10-
15 KNOTS OVER THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO DEEPEN OVER THE
LLCC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST, STEADILY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 050200) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.4S 81.5E, APPROXIMATELY 615 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 042054Z AMSU-
B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 C) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH
AND ADDED INVEST 97S AS A LOW.//
NNNN

图片:abiosair.jpg

我是一个普普通通的上海风迷
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yuwenhuang
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发布于:2017-03-06 19:40
ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZMAR2017//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050751ZMAR2017//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351ZMAR2017//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 050600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.5S 56.1E, APPROXIMATELY 402 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 050900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 051200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BLANCHE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3S 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 126 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 051500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S 130E,
IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 2.A.(2)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 81.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 79.9E, APPROXIMATELY 550
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 051340Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIGHT CONVECTION LOCATED MOSTLY TO
THE SOUTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATED
THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF
LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abiosair.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2017-03-06 21:11编辑了帖子]
我是一个普普通通的上海风迷
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发布于:2017-03-06 22:34

图片:20170306.1200.msg1.x.vis1km.97SINVEST.25kts-1006mb-148S-763E.100pc.jpg


TPXS12 PGTW 061226
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97S (SE OF DIEGO)
B. 06/1200Z
C. 14.65S
D. 76.37E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS DT OF 1.5. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   HART

TXXS23 KNES 061231
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97S)
B.  06/1130Z
C.  14.6S
D.  76.6E
E.  THREE/MET-8
F.  T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING FOR A DT=1.5. MET=1.5. PT=1.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    06/0715Z 14.2S 77.0E AMSR2

...LEE
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发布于:2017-03-07 03:02
** WTIO30 FMEE 061826 RRA ***
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/7/20162017
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  7
2.A POSITION 2017/03/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 76.1 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL
ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/03/07 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2017/03/07 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 72.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2017/03/08 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2017/03/08 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2017/03/09 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2017/03/09 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2017/03/10 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2017/03/11 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5+

GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTION THAT REMAINS VERY
FLUCTUATING MAINLY LOCATED WITHIN THE WESTERN AND THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT DUE TO A MODERATE EASTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A GOOD
POLEWARD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (0715Z
GCOM AND SSMIS 1342Z) SHOWED SOME SIGNS OF ORGANISATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED LITTLE CURVED BAND.

THE MINIMUM IS MOVING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW/MID LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN AND CURVE ITS TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE, FROM FRIDAY, TO ACCELERATE
AND TO  BEND SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE RESIDUAL ENAWO
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION.

ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS MARGINALLY BEFORE TO
BECOME UNFAVOURABLE FROM THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL SUPPLY IS VERY EFFICIENT
POLEWARD BUT WEAK EQUATORWARD. IN THE UPPER LEVEL, THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH A MODERATE
EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE BENEATH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT FROM
THURSDAY, A ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING IN THE VICINITY OF RODRIGUES ISLAND
SHOULD INCREASE GREATLY THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON THE SYSTEM.=

图片:SWI$07_20162017.png



 (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.9S 79.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 76.3E, APPROXIMATELY 500
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 051340Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A NARROW
REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BEYOND 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

图片:abiosair.jpg

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iam最小值
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发布于:2017-03-07 12:54
WTXS21 PGTW 070430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 75.7E TO 16.3S 69.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070400Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 74.9E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 76.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 74.9E, APPROXIMATELY 515
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 070054Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC WITH A DEFINED CENTER. THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), AND A NARROW REGION OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080430Z.//
NNNN

图片:sh9717 20170307 0000Z.gif

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Mitch
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发布于:2017-03-07 16:37
正好处于一个低垂直风切区,命名机会比较高,不过后天开始环境不理想垂直风切很快速加大。
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发布于:2017-03-09 02:59

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TPXS12 PGTW 081817
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97S (S OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 08/1800Z
C. 14.94S
D. 70.09E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES WITH DT YIELDING A 2.5 WHILE
MET YIELDS A 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   08/1419Z  15.53S  70.53E  MMHS

   LEMBKE
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