颱風巨爵
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[SH(16-17)]波拿巴湾二级热带气旋“布兰奇”(20U/10S.Blanche) - 起源阿拉弗拉海,南下吹袭金伯利,历来最迟首个登陆澳洲的热带气旋

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更多 发布于:2017-03-02 10:44
BOM路径图

图片:nttc20170302blanche2.jpg



JTWC云图特写
(0000Z:50 KT)

图片:10S_060000sams.jpg


SSD云图特写

图片:rgb_lalo-animated.gif

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif



上陆雷达 (BOM)

图片:Blanche landfall radar.gif



编扰资讯 (NRL)

96S INVEST 170302 0000   7.0S  134.0E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20170302.0130.himawari-8.x.vis1km.96SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-70S-1340E.100pc.jpg



Potential Cyclones:

A developing Tropical Low is located in the northeast Arafura Sea, about 450km north of Nhulunbuy. The low is expected to move southwest through the Arafura Sea and towards the north coast of the Northern Territory. It has a moderate chance of developing into a Tropical Cyclone from Saturday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Thursday:Very Low.
Friday:Low.
Saturday:Moderate.

The Tropical Low is expected to continue moving southwest towards the Timor Sea later in the weekend and early next week.
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[颱風巨爵于2017-03-27 02:23编辑了帖子]
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  • 9914dan
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十載追風失意多,一笑看破風雲過。
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发布于:2017-03-03 11:33
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Friday, 3rd March 2017, Time 07.00 Western Indonesia Time

Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:
None.
Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Suspect area with minimum pressure 1005 mb is observed in Arafura Sea near 7.8 S 134.3 E, about 1220 km northeast of Kupang , and moving southwest 2 km/hr.
Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Saturday (tomorrow) : small possibility
Sunday (tomorrow +1): small possibility
Monday (tomorrow +2) : medium possibility

Note:
Small possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is less than 10%.
Medium possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is about 20%-40%.
Large possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is more than 50%.

Southern Indonesia area is area within equator to 11 S and 90 to 141 E.
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9914dan
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发布于:2017-03-03 12:00
  (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.8S
134.3E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 021258Z ASCAT PASS,
AND A 021551Z 91 GHZ ASMR2 IMAGE DEPICT SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD AND POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE WEAK LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abiosair.jpg

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Mitch
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发布于:2017-03-03 14:10
BOM与BMKG看好如果在帝汶岛附近发展为TC的话11S以北是BMKG责任区后期在西澳金伯利海岸登陆。BMKG区名字与西北太台风名字同名。编号估计是20U。
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iam最小值
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发布于:2017-03-03 15:02
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Friday 3 March 2017
for the period until midnight CST Monday 6 March 2017.

Potential Cyclones:

A developing Tropical Low, 1003 hPa, is located in the north Arafura Sea, near 7.9S, 133.4E, about 560km northeast of Darwin at 9:30am CST on 3 March, and moving towards the west southwest at about 8 kilometres per hours. The low is expected to move west or southwest through the Arafura Sea and into the Timor Sea and may develop into a tropical cyclone by late Sunday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Saturday:Low.
Sunday:Moderate.
Monday:High.

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


 

图片:BOM 20170303 06UTC.png

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发布于:2017-03-04 10:12
BOM:20U
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0206 UTC 04/03/2017
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 9.5S
Longitude: 132.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south [189 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  04/0600: 10.1S 132.2E:     040 [080]:  025  [045]: 1002
+12:  04/1200: 10.4S 131.9E:     055 [100]:  025  [045]: 1002
+18:  04/1800: 10.9S 131.6E:     065 [125]:  030  [055]: 1000
+24:  05/0000: 11.3S 131.2E:     080 [145]:  035  [065]:  997
+36:  05/1200: 12.3S 130.1E:     100 [185]:  045  [085]:  992
+48:  06/0000: 13.2S 129.1E:     120 [220]:  055  [100]:  985
+60:  06/1200: 14.4S 127.8E:     140 [255]:  050  [095]:  989
+72:  07/0000: 15.6S 126.4E:     155 [290]:  030  [055]: 1000
+96:  08/0000: 17.5S 124.0E:     200 [370]:  030  [055]: 1000
+120: 09/0000: 18.5S 122.7E:     290 [535]:  030  [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
The centre was located using animated Visible satellite imagery. Satellite
depicts an exposed small, tight vortex close to the deep convection moving in a
southerly direction.

Dvorak intensity at 00Z is based a shear pattern averaged over 3h giving a
DT=2.0. MET is not available. Max winds set at 25kt.

The low is in a region of high 20-30kt ESE wind shear based on CIMSS. The upper
ridge is located further south and is providing good upper diffluence and
allowing the convection to develop to the W of the LLCC.

The low is expected to move S to SW during the next 2-3 days placing the low in
a more favourable shear environment. Intensity forecast is based on a standard
development rate with TC strength expected by 00Z on 5 March.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/0800 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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发布于:2017-03-04 10:27

图片:20170303.2330.himawari-8.x.vis1km.96SINVEST.20kts-1002mb-86S-1320E.100pc.jpg


TXXS22 KNES 040032
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96S)
B.  03/2330Z
C.  9.6S
D.  132.5E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL, LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUDS
LINES WITH A POORLY DEFINED CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES
FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0 USING THE SHEAR
PATTERN. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...TURK
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yuwenhuang
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发布于:2017-03-04 12:17
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZMAR2017//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030751ZMAR2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 030600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WAS LOCATED NEAR
12.7S 56.8E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 030900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.2S 133.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 132.6E, APPROXIMATELY 280
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031235Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW CONSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING STARTING TO
DEVELOP IN THE MICROWAVE. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGE FROM THE AUSTRALIAN
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY AT DARWIN SHOW CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CITY AND MOVING TO THE WEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), FAVORABLE
POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 C).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INTENSIFICATION LIKELY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abiosair.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2017-03-04 12:36编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2017-03-04 22:02

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1346 UTC 04/03/2017
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 10.4S
Longitude: 131.4E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [226 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  04/1800: 10.8S 130.9E:     040 [080]:  030  [055]:  997
+12:  05/0000: 11.3S 130.4E:     055 [100]:  035  [065]:  996
+18:  05/0600: 11.8S 129.8E:     065 [125]:  040  [075]:  993
+24:  05/1200: 12.2S 129.3E:     080 [145]:  045  [085]:  990
+36:  06/0000: 13.0S 128.3E:     100 [180]:  055  [100]:  984
+48:  06/1200: 14.1S 127.3E:     120 [220]:  050  [095]:  984
+60:  07/0000: 15.1S 125.9E:     140 [255]:  030  [055]:  996
+72:  07/1200: 16.2S 124.7E:     155 [290]:  030  [055]:  998
+96:  08/1200: 17.1S 123.0E:     200 [370]:  025  [045]:  998
+120: 09/1200: 18.2S 122.0E:     290 [535]:  025  [045]:  998
REMARKS:
The system centre is currently difficult to locate. Using animated visible
satellite imagery and microwave imagery, the low-level centre looks to be
located under the eastern edge of the deep convection north of the Tiwi
islands.While wind shear, as indicated by CMSS analysis, remains less than
favourable, the recent movement of the LLCC to under the dense overcast, and
model data, suggests that shear is becoming less unfavourable. Models predict
shear will become more favourable as the system tracks further south.The 200 hPa
upper ridge is located south of the system centre and is providing good upper
diffluence, with an outflow channel to the system's south.

Dvorak intensity at 12Z is based on a curved band pattern with spiral arc of
between 0.3 and 0.4 giving DT=2.0. Adj MET=PAT=2.5 and CI=2.5. There is not much
confidence with the DT, so FT based on PAT. ADT yields FT=2.3. System intensity
is set at 30 knots.

The low is expected to be steered generally southwest during the next 2 to 3
days, moving closer to the upper subtropical ridge and into a low sheared
environment. Mid level ridge to the southwest may weaken as a short wave trough
approaches from the west, while the middle level ridge to the northeast is
likely to become the dominant steering influence, resulting in the forecasted
southwesterly movement. Intensity forecast is based on a standard development
rate with tropical cyclone strength expected by 00Z on 5 March. Land influences
may be a negative influence in the expected development of this system.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/2000 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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发布于:2017-03-05 00:39

图片:QQ图片20170305003740.gif


发展出对流空洞,准备强行卷眼
俱往矣,何不寻欢。
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