9914dan
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[SH(16-17)]马达加斯加东北强热带气旋第6号“爱娜沃”(09S.Enawo) - 卷眼多时终成大器,南半球风季最晚MH,纵贯马达加斯加 - MFR:110KT JTWC:125KT

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-02-28 01:21
路径图

图片:SWI$06_20162017.png


图片:Enawo_2017_track.png



云图特写
(JTWC:125 KT)

图片:09S_061800sair.jpg


Cyclone Enawo on March 7, 2017(via Wikipedia)

图片:Enawo_2017-03-07_0606Z.png


发展历程
(via Wikipedia)

2017年3月2日12:00UTC,留尼旺气象部把集结南纬11.9度,东经60.1度的低压区升格为热带扰动,当时该热带扰动一直向西南偏西方向移动。
2017年3月3日06:00UTC,由于该热带扰动迅速增强,所以留尼旺气象部把该热带扰动直接升格为中等热带风暴,并取名为爱娜沃。
2017年3月4日18:00UTC,留尼旺气象部把爱娜沃升格为强烈热带风暴。
2017年3月5日06:00UTC,留尼旺气象部把爱娜沃升格为热带气旋。
2017年3月6日12:00UTC,留尼旺气象部把爱娜沃升格为强烈热带气旋。
2017年3月7日06:00UTC,爱娜沃到达了一生中最强的时候,风速为每小时205公里(每小时125英里)。09:00UTC,爱娜沃保持着每小时205公里的风速登陆马达加斯加东北部。18:00UTC,爱娜沃登陆后迅速减弱,所以留尼旺气象部把爱娜沃降格为热带气旋,而爱娜沃开始转向南移动。
2017年3月8日00:00UTC,留尼旺气象部把爱娜沃降格为强烈热带风暴。
2017年3月10日00:00UTC,爱娜沃在马达加斯加南部出海。
2017年3月11日00:00UTC,留尼旺气象部把爱娜沃直接降格为热带低氧压。06:00UTC,爱娜沃在南纬33.1度,东经48.1度消散,留尼旺气象部为它发出最后报告。

走向巅峰(GIF)

图片:走向巅峰.gif


登陆过程(GIF)

图片:登陆过程.gif



编扰资讯

95S INVEST 170227 1800   6.0S  73.0E SHEM   15   1006

图片:20170227.1830.meteo-7.ir.95S.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.6S.73E.100pc.jpg



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1楼#
发布于:2017-02-28 02:48
正确位置的云图发布了。

图片:20170227.1830.meteo-7.ircolor.95S.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.6S.73E.100pc.jpg




ECMWF的最新预测相当恐怖。

图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_ind_9.png

Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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发布于:2017-02-28 19:01
ECMWF今天00Z预测分两次巅峰,第一次914hPa第二次921hPa,分别在3月6日18Z和7日18Z,随后登陆马达加斯加。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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9914dan
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发布于:2017-02-28 22:27
AWIO20 FMEE 281259
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2017/02/28 AT 1200 UTC
PART1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
A monsoon trough (MT) is defined all over the basin along 9S. Monsoon flow converge within the MT, especially north of the Chagos Archipelago, where deep convection increased during the past 24 hours, strengthened by the MJO active phase and the arrival of an equatorial Rossby wave. Convective activity is locally severe, and a suspect area is located west of Diego-Garcia.

Suspect area west of the Chagos Archipelago :
Last satellite data show the building of a rotating movement inside the cloud pattern. The center of this mid-level circulation is around 6.5S/70.2E at 10Z. However, 0510Z ASCAT swath, in agreement with DIego Garcia, ground observations, depicts a different pattern at sea level. The circulation is ill-defined, probably not close, and seems to be located souther than the previous vortex, around 8S. Thus, te low and mid level circulations are not coupled yet (as seen by CIMSS vorticty data). Strongest winds ranging up to 15kt are far from the center, in the feedings (especially in the polar one). In relation with this lack of organization, 0341Z GMI and 0751Z AMSR2 microwave swaths, confirm that convective activity is very weak near the broad core. Still, the system benefits from a very good upper divergence and a decaying wind shear (10kt according to CIMSS). MSLP is near 1007hPa.
By the end of the week, low level environment is expected to improve. Polar and equatorial convergence are forecast to increase with the arrival of a new anticyclone at south, and the strengthening of a near equatorial ridge at north-east. The inner core may become symmetric and contract a little, allowing a deepening phase in a conducive environment at all levels.
Numerical guidance is still in rather disagreement on the evolution of this minimum, with increasing uncertainties from Thursday. Indeed, IFS suggest a strong intensification, on a west- south-westwards track meanwhile GFS forecast a slower deepening on the southward track. Theses differences are mostly explained by the different structures. In the GFS scenario, the system is hindered by it monsoon depression pattern, at first, in contrary to the European scenario where it rapidly gains a more classical structure. On the lastest guidance, a convergence trend seems to occur towards a median track closer to UKMO. Predictibility is expected to increase tomorrow and Thursday.
For the next 5 days, the likelihood of development of a moderate tropical storm becomes moderateThursday and then high from Saturday.

 NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90% Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

图片:gfs_mslp_uv850_ind_24.png

图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_ind_7.png




中心目前还不明确,缺乏组织。两大数值都是支持发展的,GFS认为未来整合缓慢,季风低压的模式阻碍增强,而EC预计能稳步构建核心,导致后期强度能顺利的快速增强。路径方面,GFS认为在60E南下,而EC预报西南行登陆马达加斯加。
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刚打酱油回来
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4楼#
发布于:2017-03-01 06:19

图片:abiosair.jpg


ABIO10 PGTW 282000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/282000ZFEB-011800ZMAR2017//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3S 69.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 208 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA.  ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.
281410Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE DIFFLUENCE BEING
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 27C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH INTENSIFICATION LIKELY
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND UNFAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).
NNNN
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5楼#
发布于:2017-03-02 12:13
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/011800Z-021800ZMAR2017//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.3S 69.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 67.9E, APPROXIMATELY 305
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 010450Z ASCAT PASS, AND A 011431Z 91 GHZ SSMIS
IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND MODERATE, BUT DECREASING,
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28C ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AND
CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND MULTIPLE MODEL DEVELOPMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abiosair.jpg




AWIO20 FMEE 011204
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2017/03/01 AT 1200 UTC
PART1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
Convective activity is moderate over the basin, between 5S and 15S. The monsoon flow is well established between 40E and 75E, strengthened by a tropical low located South of India in the northern hemisphere. A trough pattern is concentrating convection East of 75E, where the trade winds converge with the monsoon flow bend Westward by this low.
Between 50E and 75E, a wide clockwise circulation is forming a suspect area. Suspect area west of the Chagos Archipelago :
At 10Z, the low level center of the weak circulation is located near 10S/63E and moving Westward. The analysis of the sat images still suggests that the mid-layer circulation remains shifted Westwards compared to the surface. A weak to moderate Easterly shear is affecting the area for now. The nearby available ground observations do not show a decrease in sea level pressure as convection show no sign of organisation yet. This morning ASCAT swath show a still elongated circulation with max winds of about 10/15kt.
Over the next few days, despite the light Easterly shear, the upper conditions should globally improve with the appearance of a poleward evacuation channel. In the low levels, the environment remains very conducive. The available guidance is in good agreement and suggest a significant deepening from Friday night. In terms of track, the ECMWF ensemble prediction still reveals a strong dispersion, with mainly two possible scenarii : a South-Westward track with a landfall on the Malagasy coastline and a parabolic track near the Mascarenes islands. While the ensemble prediction is still favoring the first option with a slight majority, the available deterministic models are now in agreement with the second scenario, which seems now more likely.
An other weaker clockwise circulation could appear between 70E and 80E over the week-end. In the low levels, conditions remain conducive with an especially good poleward convergence. However, the upper conditions are rather unfavorable with vertical windshear and no significant divergence. Thus, the potential of development for this second system is rather low.
For the next 5 days, the likelihood of development of a moderate tropical storm North of the Mascarenes islands becomes moderate Friday, then high from Saturday. Over the Eastern part of the basin, there is no likelihood of formation of a moderate tropical storm for the next 5 days.
 NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

图片:C54oNmmWYAI1On5.jpg

[9914dan于2017-03-02 16:43编辑了帖子]
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meow
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6楼#
发布于:2017-03-02 15:46
ECMWF和GFS预测继续分歧:前者再次西调掠过马达加斯加东岸,后者以高强度直扑留尼汪。

图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_ind_8.png

图片:gfs_mslp_wind_ind_25.png

[9914dan于2017-03-02 16:21编辑了帖子]
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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iam最小值
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发布于:2017-03-02 22:07
MFR定为扰动区,编号第6号,第一报上望ITC。修正之后的预报显示会比较快速的加强。

图片:f2574c086e061d9519d3a8bd72f40ad163d9ca70.jpg


COR

图片:SWI$06_20162017.png


 

图片:2017SH95_4KMIRIMG_201703021200.GIF


WTIO30 FMEE 021322
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/6/20162017
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER  6
2.A POSITION 2017/03/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 60.1 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY    DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/03/03 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2017/03/03 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2017/03/04 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2017/03/04 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2017/03/05 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2017/03/05 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 57.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2017/03/06 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION INSIDE OF
WHICH IT IS DIFFICULT TO DEFINE A CENTER PRECISELY. THE ASCAT SWATH
ENABLES TO ESTIMATE MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 20KT FAR FROM THE CENTER,
WHICH MAY LOCALLY REACH 25KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG
CONVECTIVE BURSTS CONCERN THE SOUTH-WEST SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE DISTURBED
AREA.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS DRIVEN BY A NORTHEASTERN RIDGE, BENDING
GRADUALLY THE MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MASCARENES
ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
ARE FLUCTUATING ON THE PHILOSOPHY OF THIS TRACK, WITH A POSSIBLE MORE
WESTWARD ORIENTATION. INDEED, A 500HPA RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR MIGHT INFLUENCE THE TRACK FROM THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE
RECENT RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST SCENARIOS OF THE ECMWF'S
ENSEMBLIST FORECAST. A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ALL CONDUCIVE FOR A SUSTAINED AND
CONTINUOUS INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THUS, IT SHOULD REACH THE
STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE END OF RANGE.=
[iam最小值于2017-03-02 23:26编辑了帖子]
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meow
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8楼#
发布于:2017-03-02 22:08
上看ITC

图片:SWI$06_20162017.png

[颱風巨爵于2017-03-02 22:51编辑了帖子]
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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9914dan
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发布于:2017-03-02 22:33
疯狂的GFS
让我们看看擅长激进的GFS预报的留尼汪大旋风

图片:疯狂的GFS.gif

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