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[SH(16-17)]库克群岛西南热带低压14F(08P) - 高速东南移动,半圆效应明显

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更多 发布于:2017-02-21 06:09
JTWC云图特写
(0000Z:35 KT)

图片:08P_220000sams.jpg


编扰资讯 (NRL)

94P INVEST 170220 1800  15.4S  176.5E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20170220.2040.himawari-8.x.vis1km.94PINVEST.15kts-NAmb-154S-1765E.100pc.jpg



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD14F CENTRE [1001HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.7S
178.4E AT 202100UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 1R/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATION. TD14F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION POOR WITH CONVECTION PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH OF LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND
30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***************

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[颱風巨爵于2017-02-23 00:27编辑了帖子]
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iam最小值
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发布于:2017-02-21 12:28
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.7S 179.2E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING.
A 202132Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT UNDU POINT (91652) SHOW SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 21 KNOTS WITH A SLP VALUE OF 1002.7MB. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST. THE GLOBAL  
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD, AWAY FROM FIJI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

图片:abpwsair.jpg


图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[iam最小值于2017-02-21 12:37编辑了帖子]
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Mitch
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发布于:2017-02-21 12:48
数值预报西南太平洋2016到2017年热带气旋季第二个热带气旋,FMS命名标准FT3.0
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发布于:2017-02-21 12:59
数值预测比较强对斐济汤加有比较大影响。汤加的TMS前几年成立了。
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发布于:2017-02-21 23:09
14F FMS也发扰动公报了,初报预计12小时内命名
 
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 211411 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 178.2W
AT 211200 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD14F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 19 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.  

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN PAST
24 HOURS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
CYCLONE CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.30 WRAP YEILDS DT=2.0. MET=2.0 AND PT=1.5.FT BASED ON DT. THUS,
YEILDING T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 220000 UTC 21.4S 173.2W MOV ESE AT 25KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 221200 UTC 24.4S 168.0W MOV ESE AT 25KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 230000 UTC 27.3S 164.0W MOV SE AT 25KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 212000 UTC.

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[iam最小值于2017-02-21 23:13编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2017-02-22 02:46
ASCAT 211003,风场不合格

图片:WMBas7.png

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发布于:2017-02-22 12:21
JTWC升08P,又是一个靠风场直接升格的系统。FMS 00Z维持热带低压,移动速度很快,预报只有24小时,之后可能转温。

WTPS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 21.2S 172.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 30 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 172.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 24.2S 167.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 27.1S 163.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 171.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 431 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 30 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 212113Z ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND RECENT FIXES FROM KNES AND
PGTW. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTIPLE
AGENCY DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND ASCAT WIND
OBSERVATIONS OF 35-40 KNOTS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WINDS, UP TO 45 KNOTS, ARE PRESENT ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. TC 08P IS TRACKING RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THE NORTHEAST AND A DEEP-LAYERED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST. PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
INDUCING STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE STORM MOTION IN THE
DIRECTION OF THIS FLOW IS MINIMIZING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, SHEAR HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO DISPLACE A
LARGE PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE CURRENT STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12, AND COMPLETE THE
TRANSITION TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 24. INTENSITY SHOULD
REMAIN APPROXIMATELY STEADY DURING THE TRANSITION DUE TO A FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PATTERN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07P (BART) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN

图片:sh0817 20170222 0000Z.gif


 

图片:WMBds3.png

图片:WMBds4.png


 
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 220115 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 171.6W
AT 220000 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 AND GOES IR/VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD14F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
WITHIN 60 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TD14F CENTRE, EXPECT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS.  

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AND ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN
PAST 24 HOURS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. CYCLONE CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.40 WRAP YEILDS DT=2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS, YEILDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 24.9S 166.4W MOV ESE AT 28KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 221800 UTC 28.0S 162.5W MOV SE AT 26KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 220800 UTC

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[iam最小值于2017-02-22 12:23编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2017-02-23 12:05
昨晚12Z FMS发最后一报表示即将出界,18Z新西兰接手后表示已经转温,JTWC亦发布最后一报。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 221352 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD14F CENTRE [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6S
166.9W AT 221200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 AND GOES
IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD14F MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.
 
LLCC EXPOSED WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ORGANISATION
POOR. SYSTEM UNDER THE SUB-TROPICAL JET AND IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 27
DEGREE CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH DEEP
CONVECTION GREATER THAN 75 NAUTICAL MILES FROM LLCC YIELDS DT=1.5,
MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. CI HELD HIGHER DUE CI RULE. THUS
YIELDING, T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO WELLINGTON TCWC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14F.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 163.7W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 35 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 163.7W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 31.1S 157.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 162.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 388 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 35 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME SEVERELY SHEARED, EXPOSING
A RAGGED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON AN ELLIPTICAL LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE ON THE
221700Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA.
ANALYSES INDICATE TC 08P HAS BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL, CORROBORATED BY
THE CIRA/RAMMB AMSU RADIAL/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTION PRODUCT AND THE FSU
CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM SHOWING AN ASYMMETRIC COLD-CORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS
15 FEET.//
NNNN

图片:sh0817 20170222 1800Z.gif


 
GALE WARNING 324
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 230000UTC
Over waters south of 25S.
Low 995hPa near 27S 163W moving southeast 25kt.
Within 180 nautical miles of low in sector from northwest through northeast to east: Clockwise 35kt.
Gale area moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 320.

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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发布于:2017-02-23 13:13
WWNZ40 NZKL 221802
GALE WARNING 320
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: PACIFIC
AT 221800UTC
OVER WATERS SOUTH OF 25S.
LOW 997HPA NEAR 26S 165W MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 20KT.
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST TO EAST: CLOCKWISE 35KT.
GALE AREA MOVING WITH LOW.
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