9914dan
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[SH(16-17)]美属萨摩亚东南一级热带气旋“巴特”(15F/07P.Bart) - 风场合格,JTWC跳过任何评级直接升格,南太FMS区最晚首旋

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更多 发布于:2017-02-20 14:33
Tropical Depression 15F just before becoming Cyclone Bart over in the South Pacific on February 21, 2017
(via Wikipedia

图片:15F_2017-02-21_0045Z.jpg



编扰资讯

93P INVEST 170220 0600  16.3S  172.4W SHEM   15   NA
93P INVEST 170220 0600  16.8S  171.3W SHEM   15  1010

图片:20170220.0600.goes-15.ir.93P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.16.3S.172.4W.100pc.jpg



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[9914dan于2017-03-25 22:34编辑了帖子]
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2017-02-20 18:23
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD15F CENTRE [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18.4S
171.1W AT 200900UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATION. TD15F SLOW MOVING.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM
LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
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2楼#
发布于:2017-02-21 12:21
JTWC今天早上依据风场直接升格07P,FMS清晨提升为热带低压并迅速发布扰动公报,看好加强成为一级热带气旋,不过升格的位置在25S以南,可能由新西兰命名。
 
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 202233 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2S
166.2W AT 202100 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  TD15F MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
20 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. TD15F LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN YIELDS
DT=2.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING,
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WITH GRADUALL INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.  

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 210900 UTC 22.4S 162.2W MOV  SE AT 18 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 212100 UTC 24.7S 159.2W MOV  ESE AT  20 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 220900 UTC 26.9S 155.9W MOV ESE AT 27 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 222100 UTC 28.9S 151.6W MOV  ESE AT 27 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 210200 UTC.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 210217 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8S
165.4W AT 210200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  TD15F MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
20 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. TD15F LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND
PATTERN YIELDS DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
YIELDING, T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WITH GRADUALL INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.  

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 210900 UTC 22.9S 161.6W MOV  SE AT 18 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 212100 UTC 25.1S 158.6W MOV  ESE AT 20 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 220900 UTC 27.3S 155.1W MOV ESE AT 28 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 222100 UTC 29.0S 150.5W MOV  ESE AT 27 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 210800 UTC.

图片:FMS 20170221 00UTC.gif




WTPS32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 166.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 166.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 21.8S 162.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 24.2S 158.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 26.9S 154.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 165.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST
OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 202046Z METOP-
B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 202045Z ASCAT
IMAGE REVEALS AN OBLONG CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS 35 KNOT WINDS AND
SOME ISOLATED 40 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION,
WHICH SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. DESPITE
SOME SUBTROPICAL FORCING ON THE SYSTEM, THE ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS APPROXIMATELY 60NM, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SST 27-28C AND
STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH INCREASING VWS, COOLER SST
AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. TC 07P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE ENHANCED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE DEEP TROUGH AND
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE TIGHTLY-GROUPED NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACKERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P
(ALFRED) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:sh0717 20170221 0000Z.gif

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


    

图片:WMBds7.png

[iam最小值于2017-02-21 12:25编辑了帖子]
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Mitch
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3楼#
发布于:2017-02-21 12:46
25S以南的西南太平洋新西兰没有单独命名权,新西兰如果认为可以命名需要与斐济协商斐济同意命名新西兰才可以命名。如果15F命名是2016到2017年热带气旋季西南太平洋第一个热带气旋。也是西南太平洋最晚有热带气旋的热带气旋季。15F对库克群岛有一定影响。
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meow
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发布于:2017-02-21 13:22
斐济那预测有点奇怪,在南纬三十多度维持这么久热带气旋?
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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9914dan
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发布于:2017-02-21 22:59
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 211338 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BART CENTRE [994HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.6S 162.3W AT 211200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. BART MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 19 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UP TO 500HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREE CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND
PATTERN WITH 0.7 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON
DT. THUS YIELDING, T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST.  

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 220000 UTC 24.9S 159.1W MOV SE AT 19 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 221200 UTC 27.3S 155.8W MOV SE AT 19 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BART WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 212000 UTC.

图片:65660.gif



图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif



图片:ir-animated.gif



命名BART,南太斐济责任区的最晚首旋记录定格在2月21日。
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meow
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6楼#
发布于:2017-02-22 16:51
新西兰MetService接手发报,仍是一级热带气旋。

TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING 314
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
Tropical Cyclone BART [995hPa] centre was located near 26.1 South 153.8 West at 220600 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 26.1S 153.8W at 220600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving eastsoutheast 30 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 130 nautical miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and within 60 nautical miles of centre in the western semicircle.

Forecast position near 27.9S 150.0W at 221800 UTC
and near 29.4S 145.8W at 230600 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 313.

Issued at 8:03pm Wednesday 22 Feb 2017
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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听着闹铃睡觉
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7楼#
发布于:2017-02-22 22:36
07P与08PP无论从哪个方面都很像西北太平洋的1406米娜、1613玛瑙都是位于副高北侧南侧辐合带中的系统,自身的暖心性质不强,与其称为TC,还不如称为sub-TC。
南太前几年还有个类似的系统,貌似是15年某个95P,那个暖心要更强,结构要更好,不过却遭结构集体无视,只有JTWC当成sub-TC,然后给了45kt。看来这类TC要得到升格,完全是看机构心情。
俱往矣,何不寻欢。
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9914dan
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发布于:2017-02-23 02:44
ZCZC 723
WWNZ40 NZKL 221801
GALE WARNING 319
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: PACIFIC
AT 221800UTC
LOW 994HPA, FORMER CYCLONE BART, NEAR 29S 151W MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST
20KT.
WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN EASTERN SEMICIRCLE: CLOCKWISE
35KT.
GALE AREA MOVING WITH LOW.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 316.
NNNN
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发布于:2017-02-23 12:08
GALE WARNING 323
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 230000UTC
Low 993hPa, former Cyclone BART, near 30S 149W moving east 20kt.
1. Within 240 nautical miles of low in eastern semicircle: Clockwise 35kt.
2. Within 180 nautical miles of low in western semicircle: Clockwise 35kt.
Gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 319.

图片:758b-15a68447000-15a68a43272.0.png


 

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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