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[SH(16-17)]斐济西北热带扰动12F(92P) - 16.2S 176.2E - 少有向低纬移动

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更多 发布于:2017-02-17 11:00
92P INVEST 170217 0000  21.1S  175.2W SHEM   15   NA

图片:20170217.0140.himawari-8.x.vis1km.92PINVEST.15kts-NAmb-211S-1752W.100pc.jpg

图片:WMBds8.png



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12F CENTRE [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21.2S 175.0W
AT 162300UTC.
POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. TD12F MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.

CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF TD12F CENTRE. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS IS MOVING TD12F NORTHWESTWARDS WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***

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[颱風巨爵于2017-02-23 01:03编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
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十載追風失意多,一笑看破風雲過。
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2017-02-17 18:50
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12F CENTRE [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 20.9S 175.4W
AT 170600UTC.
POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATION. TD12F MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.

CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF TD12F CENTRE. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER UNDER A UPPER TROUGH IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 850HPA. SST IS
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE TD12F NORTHWESTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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iam最小值
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2楼#
发布于:2017-02-20 18:30
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD12F CENTRE [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.1S
172.0E AT 200900UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATION. TD12F MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

CONVECTION SUPPRESSED AND ORGANISATION POOR. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE TD12F WESTWARDS WITH NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
****

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD14F CENTRE [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.7S
176.0E AT 200900UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 1R/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATION. TD14F SLOW MOVING.

ORGANISATION POOR WITH CONVECTION PERSISTANT TO THE NORTH OF LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND
30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
 

图片:latestSWP.png


图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


 
12F和14F都能看到,都是很弱的LLCC。12F即将并入到幅合带中,14F有对流覆盖,后者可能会获得NRL编号。
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iam最小值
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3楼#
发布于:2017-02-21 12:34
今天早晨14F已经获得编号,12F经过一夜之后中心在可见光上已不那么明显。NRL似乎经过了一次重新定位,之前的那个LLCC消散了。
 
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD12F CENTRE [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.8S
170.6E AT 202100UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATION. TD12F SLOW MOVING.

CONVECTION SUPPRESSED AND ORGANISATION POOR. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE TD12F WESTWARDS WITH NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:vis_lalo-animated (1).gif


 

图片:路径20170221 00Z.png

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