9914dan
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[SH(16-17)]卡奔塔利亚湾一级热带气旋“阿尔弗雷德”(19U/06P.Alfred) - 离岸过近发展受限,调头再次登陆卡湾南岸

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更多 发布于:2017-02-16 05:42
Tropical Cyclone Alfred (19U / 06P) over in the Gulf of Carpentaria on 20 February 2017
(via Wikipedia

图片:Alfred_2017-02-20_0500Z.jpg


路径图

图片:Alfred_2017_track.png



编扰资讯

91P INVEST 170215 1800  16.0S  139.0E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20170215.2100.himawari-8.ir.91P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.16S.139E.100pc.jpg



扫描二维码,查看更多台风内容!

图片:79_2366_9ea83845f6b68cd.jpg


[9914dan于2017-03-25 22:34编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2017-02-16 14:47
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Thursday 16 February 2017
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 19 February 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria is expected to be slow moving during the next few days with an increasing risk of a tropical cyclone forming.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Friday:Low.
Saturday:Moderate.
Sunday:High.

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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9914dan
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发布于:2017-02-16 15:18
JTWC:LOW
 (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.8S 138.6E, APPROXIMATELY 60NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE, PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A 160011Z METOP-A 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE
SUGGESTS A WEAK, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON
ISLAND SHOW EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A SLP VALUE OF
1005MB AND A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 2.5MB. IF THIS AREA REMAINS
OVER WATER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (29 TO 30C). THE GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abpwsair.jpg



Mornington Island Airport 测站气压稳定下降

图片:66905D89-019A-47BE-B19F-9240AA391DDC.png



图片:4263C851-C329-4599-9863-11ED1AEF92AD.png


TPPS10 PGTW 160631

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91P (N OF MORNINGTON IS.)

B. 16/0600Z

C. 15.88S

D. 139.40E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AREUNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   CHAPPOTIN

图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_aus_5.png

[9914dan于2017-02-16 15:29编辑了帖子]
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Mitch
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发布于:2017-02-16 15:42
BOM的达尔文分局在热带系统展望报看好发展认为有较大机会发展为热带气旋,短期在卡奔塔利亚湾徘徊少动。卡本塔利亚湾138E以东热带气旋分析报文由布里斯班发报不过展望报由达尔文发。
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发布于:2017-02-16 21:45
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
   (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 138.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY
20NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION
DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT, HOWEVER, RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE
MORNINGTON ISLAND RADAR SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 160914Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND SHOW SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A SLP VALUE OF 1004.3MB AND A 24-HOUR
SLP DECREASE OF 2.6MB. IF THIS AREA REMAINS OVER WATER,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (29 TO 30C). THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A
QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

图片:abpwsair.jpg



图片:20170216.0914.f17.91h.91P.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.15.9S.139.4E.100pc.jpg



图片:42190481-A865-4202-8C03-E3DAE5BF6A4D.png



TPPS10 PGTW 161224

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91P (N OF MORNINGTON IS)

B. 16/1200Z

C. 16.10S

D. 139.60E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   CHAPPOTIN
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发布于:2017-02-17 09:17
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1910 UTC 16/02/2017
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 19U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.6S
Longitude: 139.2E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [15 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [224 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  17/0000: 16.7S 139.0E:     015 [030]:  030  [055]:  995
+12:  17/0600: 16.7S 138.8E:     030 [055]:  030  [060]:  994
+18:  17/1200: 16.7S 138.5E:     040 [075]:  040  [070]:  994
+24:  17/1800: 16.7S 138.3E:     055 [100]:  045  [085]:  990
+36:  18/0600: 16.4S 138.1E:     075 [135]:  050  [095]:  988
+48:  18/1800: 16.0S 138.7E:     095 [170]:  050  [095]:  989
+60:  19/0600: 15.7S 139.6E:     100 [185]:  050  [095]:  989
+72:  19/1800: 15.7S 140.4E:     100 [185]:  060  [105]:  982
+96:  20/1800: 16.6S 141.1E:     175 [325]:  055  [105]:  983
+120: 21/1800: 17.6S 140.9E:     265 [490]:  020  [040]: 1004
REMARKS:
The tropical low over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters has rapidly developed
over the last 24 hours. Mornington Island radar has shown that convection is
tightly wrapping around the low level centre, which is currently located near
the north coast of Mornington Island. The automatic weather station [AWS] at
Mornington Island Airport has shown pressure falls of 10hPa over the last 24
hours and 4hPa in the hour to 18UTC, which supports the recent development
trend. ASCAT-B at 1148UTC indicated an area of marginal gale force winds on the
eastern flank of the system and gales have recently been observed at Mornington
Island Airport AWS.

The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.5 degree
wrap, giving a DT of 2.5. MET and PAT 1.5 and 2.0 respectively. FT based on DT
as it appeared fairly clear.

The CIMMS satellite winds indicate that the system lies in an environment
favourable for development with low vertical wind shear and dual outflow
channels evident. Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm at 30 degrees
around the southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters. As a result, it is anticipated
that the system may form into a tropical cyclone today and that it could reach
category 2 intensity on Saturday near the Qld/NT border, but this will be highly
dependent on the system taking a track over water during the next 24 hours.

The recent movement of the system has been towards the southwest, presumably
under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated to the south. It is expected
that the system should continue moving in this direction, or to the
west-southwest, until Saturday when an upper trough breaks down the current
steering influence, resulting in a recurving of the system towards the east.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.


WTPS21 PGTW 161830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 16.4S 139.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 161800Z
INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 139.2E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 138.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 139.2E, APPROXIMATELY
16NM NORTH OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN DEEP
CONVECTION, HOWEVER, RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE MORNINGTON ISLAND RADAR
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON
ISLAND SHOW EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30
TO 35 KNOTS WITH A SLP VALUE OF 1000.3MB AND A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE
OF 5.9MB. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (29 TO 30C). MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS
QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF CARPENTARIA WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS
SHOW THE DISTURBANCE MOVING INLAND AND DELAYING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171830Z.//
NNNN

图片:sh9117 20170216 1800Z.gif

[iam最小值于2017-02-17 11:50编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2017-02-17 12:58
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0152 UTC 17/02/2017
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 19U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.8S
Longitude: 138.5E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [252 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  17/0600: 17.0S 138.3E:     030 [055]:  025  [045]: 1000
+12:  17/1200: 16.9S 138.0E:     050 [095]:  025  [045]: 1002
+18:  17/1800: 16.7S 137.5E:     070 [130]:  025  [045]: 1002
+24:  18/0000: 16.4S 137.3E:     090 [165]:  030  [055]: 1000
+36:  18/1200: 15.9S 137.4E:     130 [240]:  030  [055]:  998
+48:  19/0000: 15.7S 138.1E:     170 [315]:  045  [085]:  994
+60:  19/1200: 15.3S 139.1E:     220 [405]:  055  [100]:  988
+72:  20/0000: 15.2S 139.5E:     270 [500]:  060  [110]:  983
+96:  21/0000: 16.0S 139.7E:     340 [620]:  045  [085]:  993
+120: 22/0000: 16.5S 139.5E:     400 [740]:  035  [065]: 1000
REMARKS:
The tropical low is crossing the coast in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria.
Mornington Island radar has shown that convection is still tightly wrapped
around the low level centre, although cloud top temperatures have warmed
significantly. Scatterometer winds at 1148UTC last night indicated an area of
marginal gale force winds on the eastern flank of the system and gales were
observed briefly at Mornington Island early in the morning.

The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.5 degree
wrap, giving a DT of 2.5. MET and PAT 2.0 and 2.5 respectively. FT based on DT
as it appeared fairly clear.

The CIMMS satellite winds indicate that the system lies in an environment
favourable for development with low vertical wind shear and dual outflow
channels evident. Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm at 30 degrees
around the southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters. As a result, it is anticipated
that the system may form into a tropical cyclone if it moves back over water and
that it could reach category 2 intensity on Sunday, but this will be highly
dependent on the system taking a track over water during the next 24 to 48
hours.

The recent movement of the system has been towards the southwest, presumably
under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated to the northeast. It is
expected that the system will start to track westwards as a middle level ridge
builds to the south, turning towards the northwest on Saturday when an
amplifying upper trough from the southwest breaks down the steering influence,
resulting in a recurving of the system towards the east.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0800 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

图片:IDD65001.png



环境优越,低风切高海温,双通道流出,出海后预计能很快成旋,在海湾内绕个圈圈,Mornington Island或将受到二次影响。不过西进的程度和在陆上的时间会影响未来的强度和路径。

图片:24686709c93d70cf7b0d83a2f1dcd100bba12b7b.jpg



雷达显示登陆形态不错。

图片:6897FE00-F24E-4306-8D32-E4E33DF3CA7D.png



Mornington Island测站几乎被中心直接穿过,过程最低气压995.6hpa,与此同时测到持续风34kt,阵风47kt。

图片:B3E2D654-3B91-48A6-861B-A95A564214D9.png



图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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meow
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发布于:2017-02-17 15:08
按WMO分区,这个就算命名了也不算RSMC Nadi的,南太平洋依旧空白。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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永恒切尔西
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发布于:2017-02-17 15:43

图片:vis-animated (8).gif


贴着海岸线走,很快就能再次出海。
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Mitch
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发布于:2017-02-17 17:18
季风槽即将到达今晚将转向西北到东北东南移动顺时针转一圈。WMO对热带系统的西南太平洋或者南太平洋仅指斐济与新西兰责任区。布里斯班责任区会说珊瑚海,达尔文责任区会说卡奔塔利湾阿拉弗拉海蒂汶海珀斯责任区称东南印度洋。
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