9914dan
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[SH(16-17)]塔希提岛东南热带低压13F(90P)

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更多 发布于:2017-02-15 12:41
Tropical Depression 13F gradually intensifying on February 16, 2017
(via Wikipedia)

图片:13F_2017-02-16_2330Z.jpg


编扰资讯

90P INVEST 170215 0000  13.4S  148.6W SHEM   15  1010

图片:20170215.0452.goes-15.ir.90P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.13.4S.148.6W.100pc.jpg



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图片:79_2366_9ea83845f6b68cd.jpg


[9914dan于2017-03-25 22:33编辑了帖子]
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9914dan
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1楼#
发布于:2017-02-15 16:53
ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZFEB2017//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.4S 148.6W, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHEAST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 150423Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER EDGE, PRIMARILY ON
THE NORTHEAST SIDE, OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
141834Z METOP-B ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 30
KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE, BUT THE WINDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MIXED ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (AROUND 28 C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10 KNOTS), AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH POSITIONED JUST TO THE SOUTH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
PRIMARILY GRADIENT INDUCED AND CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg



图片:25.track.png



图片:25.phase1.png



图片:20170215.0423.f17.91h.90P.INVEST.15kts.994mb.13.4S.148.6W.095pc.jpg



图片:WMBds31.png



图片:QQ20170215-0.png



LLCC狭长,对流比较散,外围东侧的风场扫出30kt,发展时间只有三四天,系统东侧或将出现烈风。
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9914dan
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2楼#
发布于:2017-02-15 17:41

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 150919 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13F CENTRE [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.5S 147.8W
AT 150900UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. TD13F SLOW MOVING.

CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
POOR. TD13F LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
****

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

图片:LATEST.jpg




两家机构的定位有些差距。
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iam最小值
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发布于:2017-02-17 09:12
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.5S 146.1W
AT 162300UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES-15 VIS/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. TD13F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

CONVECTIVE BAND PERSISTING AND GRADUALLY WRAPPING INTO LLCC FROM THE
NORTHEAST. ORGANISATION CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. TD13F LIES UNDER AN
ANTI-CIRCLONIC  REGION
 IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.


FMS提升到热带低压
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Mitch
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4楼#
发布于:2017-02-17 17:20
如果这个热带系统命名是2016-2017年季西南太平洋第一个热带气旋。
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5楼#
发布于:2017-02-17 18:44
最近形态转变得不错,然而FMS没有命名的意思,连扰动公报都不发。按这个情况来看今年应该是破了原FMS责任区的最晚首旋记录了。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [998HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 20.3S 145.0W AT
170600UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES-15 IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. TD13F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION FAIR WITH CONVECTION PERSISTANT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH UNDER A DIFFULENT REGION IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARER ENVORONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.


TPPS11 PGTW 170946
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (SE OF TAHITI)
B. 17/0900Z
C. 21.00S
D. 144.86W
E. FIVE/GOES15
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/0505Z 20.50S 145.08W SSMS
CHAPPOTIN

图片:ir_lalo-animated.gif

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发布于:2017-02-18 09:55
即将出FMS的管辖边界,FMS发最后一报

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [998HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 24.0S 141.3W AT
180000UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES-15 IR/VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. TD13F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION FAIR WITH CONVECTION DIDPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH UNDER A DIFFULENT
REGION IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARER ENVORONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TD SUMMARY FOR TD13F UNLESS THE SITUATION
CHANGES.

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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约瑟但以理
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7楼#
发布于:2017-02-18 11:44
形态和风场上是副热
家住宝山吴淞
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Mitch
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8楼#
发布于:2017-02-18 16:33
MS NZ认为温带气旋。南半球亚热带气旋不命名亚热带气旋NHC CPHC JMA会命名。
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发布于:2017-02-18 18:15
Mitch锛歁S NZ认为温带气旋。南半球亚热带气旋不命名亚热带气旋NHC CPHC JMA会命名。鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
AT 180600UTC
Over waters south of 25S.
Low 990hPa near 25S 143W moving south 15kt.

JTWC认为是副热带低压

SH, 90, 2017021806,   , BEST,   0, 257S, 1434W,  30, 1000, SD

图片:20170218.0900.goes15.x.ir1km_bw.90PINVEST.30kts-1000mb-257S-1434W.100pc.jpg




THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.4S 145.0W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.8S 143.6W, APPROXIMATELY
540 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, FRENCH POLYNESIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED, PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AN 180145Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ORGANIZED LLCC WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 171914Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS PRIMARILY 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE
DISTURBANCE, WITH HIGHER WINDS LOCATED TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG
DIFFLUENCE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-27 C) FUELING THE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS). THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
SOUTHWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION TREND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDER
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND TRANSITIONS TO A FULLY SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.



昨天的云图一张,槽前的最后一搏,形态很不错,只可惜位置太偏远和纬度渐高,机构反应不大,现在来看FMS区的首旋或许要等到三月了。

图片:2017SH90_SRSNPPDV_201702171014.png

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