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[SH(16-17)]布鲁姆以西99S - 17.0S 110.6E

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-02-13 21:29
99S INVEST 170213 1200  14.8S   129.1E SHEM   15   NA
99S INVEST 170213 1200  14.8S  129.1E SHEM   20  1006

图片:20170213.1320.himawari-8.ir.99S.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.14.8S.129.1E.100pc.jpg



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图片:79_2366_9ea83845f6b68cd.jpg


[9914dan于2017-02-19 16:11编辑了帖子]
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9914dan
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1楼#
发布于:2017-02-15 17:29
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:09 pm WST on Wednesday 15 February 2017
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 18 February 2017.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region. Over the next week the monsoon trough will lie over waters north of the Pilbara through the Kimberley, the Top End of the Northern Territory, and into the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Model guidance agrees on a very weak system forming in the monsoon trough, then moving off the west Kimberley coast on Thursday, and westwards on Friday over open waters north of the Pilbara.
On Saturday most model guidance has the system moving westwards, away from the WA mainland, over open waters north or northwest of the Pilbara. There is only a Low chance that the system will reach tropical cyclone intensity during Saturday.

The likelihood of a system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Very Low.
Friday:Very Low.
Saturday:Low

图片:gfs_pres_wind_ind_31.png



GFS确定了预报中的强气旋是99S,此气旋已经稳定出现多报,但EC也很稳定的不支持发展,东南印的干空气可不是开玩笑的。

图片:2017SH99_16KMGWVP_201702150310.gif



图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[9914dan于2017-02-15 17:33编辑了帖子]
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2楼#
发布于:2017-02-17 16:17
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Friday 17 February 2017
for the period until midnight WST Monday 20 February 2017.

Potential Cyclones:  

Over the next few days the monsoon trough will lie over waters north of the
Pilbara through the Kimberley, the Top End of the Northern Territory, and into
the Gulf of Carpentaria.
A tropical low lies over open water north of the Pilbara coast. It will continue
to move west away from the WA coast to be well northwest of Exmouth by Sunday
and further west away from the mainland on Monday. It is unlikely the system
will develop into a tropical cyclone during the next three days.

The likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Saturday: Very Low.
                                   Sunday: Very Low.
                                   Monday: Very Low.
There are no other significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected
to develop in the next three days.

图片:2017SH99_1KMSRRGB_201702170605_TRUE.GIF

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3楼#
发布于:2017-02-19 22:26
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:06 pm WST on Sunday 19 February 2017
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 22 February 2017.

Potential Cyclones:  

A tropical low lies over open water over 750km northwest of the Northwest Cape.
Over the next few days the system will continue to move further west away from
the WA mainland into the central Indian Ocean and is unlikely to develop into a
tropical cyclone.

The likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Monday: Very Low.
                                   Tuesday: Very Low.
                                   Wednesday: Very Low.
There are no other significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected
to develop in the next three days.

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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