颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[SH(16-17)]莫桑比克海峡热带气旋第5号“迪内奥”(05S.Dineo) - 海峡土产风暴,近岸显著增强,吹袭莫桑比克 - MFR:75KT JTWC:80KT

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-02-11 08:34
MFR路径图

图片:SWI$05_20162017.png



JTWC云图特写
(1200Z:80 KT)

图片:05S_151200sams.jpg


SSD云图特写

图片:avn0-lalo.gif

图片:bd0-lalo.gif


登陆后初期,系统形态持续改善 (FNMOC/ NRL)

图片:msg-3.irbd.05S.DINEO.gif

图片:20170215.2000.msg1.ir.BD.05SDINEO.75kts-977mb.jpg


莫桑比克城市“伊尼扬巴内”机场天气实测
(距离登陆点以南约60公里,资料来源:World Weather Online)

图片:Inhambane Airport Observations.png



编扰资讯 (NRL)

98S INVEST 170211 0000  18.5S   40.7E SHEM   15   NA
98S INVEST 170211 0000  18.5S   40.7E SHEM   15  1010

图片:20170211_0000_meteo-7_ir_98S_INVEST_15kts_1010mb_18_5S_40_7E_100pc.jpg


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[颱風巨爵于2017-02-27 08:06编辑了帖子]
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tontonyuatonton...
十載追風失意多,一笑看破風雲過。
tontonyua
强热带风暴
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1楼#
发布于:2017-02-11 09:05
莫桑比克海峡里的扰动
我与论坛相遇在猴年马月。 tontonyua
已经迎来35.9℃高温的洗礼。现在关注哈市奇葩换季&5月3日强降水
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327
327
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2楼#
发布于:2017-02-12 21:00
JTWC: TCFA

图片:sh9817.gif


WTXS21 PGTW 121300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.5S 40.4E TO 23.2S 37.9E WITHIN
THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 121230Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.0S 40.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:  THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.7S 39.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.0S 40.1E, APPROXIMATELY 505
NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER.
A 120930Z GCOM-W1 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE, WELL-ORGANIZED
LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 30C ARE VERY FAVORABLE.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SOUTHWESTWRAD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131300Z.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2017-02-12 21:12编辑了帖子]
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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3楼#
发布于:2017-02-13 00:51
DATE: 2017/02/12 AT 1200 UTC

Zone of disturbed weather in the South of the Mozambique Channel :
The last evening ASCAT swath reveals a small closed circulation. pression over this area are
dropped, the pressure data from Europa island south of the system has decreased by 1.5 hPa in 24
hours.
Furthermore, the last satelites imagery shows a good upper level divergence, and a strong
convective activity over the area.
the last SSMIS data at 03h46Z shows a broken deep convection not yet organized.
Benefiting from a good upper divergence and with no windshear, the already active convection
could begin to become better organized. Thus, in the beginning of next week, the available model
guidance is in good agreement to develop a significant tropical system in this area, over waters with
particularly high energy content.
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meow
世纪风王
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4楼#
发布于:2017-02-13 01:14
tontonyua锛毮1瓤撕O坷锏娜哦鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
2013–14年西南印度洋风王Hellen就是从莫桑比克海峡发迹的,也没到过别的海域。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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约瑟但以理
强热带风暴
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5楼#
发布于:2017-02-13 09:32
首报上望55KT,FMS已经发报
[约瑟但以理于2017-02-13 09:33编辑了帖子]
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  • iam最小值
    金钱 +1
    西南印是MFR,FMS是斐济气象部门
    02-13 09:46
家住宝山吴淞
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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6楼#
发布于:2017-02-13 09:52
WTIO30 FMEE 130028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/5/20162017
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  5
2.A POSITION 2017/02/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 40.7 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY    DECIMAL
SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-EAST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/02/13 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2017/02/14 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2017/02/14 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2017/02/15 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2017/02/15 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 36.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2017/02/16 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 35.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2017/02/17 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 33.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5+

OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, A STRONG CONVECTION AREA HAS SHIFTED OVER THE
SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. BENEFITING FROM A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND FROM THE EQUATORWARD CONVERGENCE PRODUCED BY THE
MONSOON FLOW, CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO ORGANISE AS SHOWN ON THE MW
IMAGES OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE LAST HOURS, CONVECTION BEGAN
TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS WEAK IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE BECAUSE
OF A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE WV IMAGES DEPICT A STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE.

LACKING A WELL DEFINED STEERING FLOW, THE LOW SHOULD NOT MOVE A LOT
TODAY. TUESDAY, WITH A LOW TO MID-TROPOSPERIC RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS
SOUTH-EAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST. A FEW MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SUGGEST A MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK BUT THE MAJORITY AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, AS THE MODELS ARE HANDLING
VERY DIFFERENTLY THE PERIOD WITH NO STEERING FLOW, THEY ALL BEGIN
THEIR SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION FROM DISPERSED POSITIONS. THUS, THERE IS
STILL GREAT UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY CONCERNING THE LOCATION OF THE
POTENTIAL LANDFALL ON THE AFRICAN COAST.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A MEAN OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS
TRACKS.

ALONG THIS TRACK, BENEFITING FROM AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ANTI-CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION ALOFT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD DEVELOP POLEWARD
THEN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS LATER TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD
BEGIN A QUICKER INTENSIFICATION PHASE FROM TUESDAY. THE OCEANIC
ENERGY CONTENT IS VERY HIGH IN THE AREA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE
THURSDAY OVERLAND, THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY.=

图片:MFR 20170213 00UTC.png


图片:20170213.0130.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.98SINVEST.30kts-1003mb-216S-399E.100pc.jpg

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meow
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7楼#
发布于:2017-02-13 21:28
莫桑比克海峡形成的热带系统移到哪都可能会造成重大灾情,尤其现在预报Dineo将快速增强。

图片:SWI$05_20162017.png

Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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8楼#
发布于:2017-02-13 21:43

图片:LATEST.jpg



隨著新一波 MJO 事件由印度洋東傳至太平洋,過去數星期熱帶對流活動顯著增加,頹廢良久的南半球風季亦轉趨活躍。其間西南印度洋生成了至去年 4 月“方塔拉”以來首個 TY 級別的熱帶氣旋“卡洛斯”,南太平洋輻合帶就出現了多枚熱帶低氣壓,霎時風起雲湧好不熱鬧。

當下“卡洛斯”已步走高緯徐徐逝去,是次 MJO 亦抵埗東太將告落幕,熱帶洋面的對流活動呈現衰減。然而在先前中亞地區的寒潮爆發和“卡洛斯”北側引入的越赤道氣流共同作用下,受之加強的偏北氣流與馬斯克林高壓西側的偏東氣流在莫桑比克海峽匯聚形成了輻合區。近日這個正渦系統開始發展,低層環流漸趨明確,被 NRL 編號 98S。今日系統進一步整合加之 ASCAT 風場掃描測出烈風,MFR 將其升格並命名為熱帶風暴第 5 號“迪內奧”(05S.Dineo)。

該處環境非常優越:海峽暖流令水温維持在 29-30 度,東非高空的赤道反氣旋和馬斯克林高壓提供了雙向流出通道,垂直風切變近乎零,而引導氣流微弱有利緩慢移動,預期系統能夠穩步增強。美中不足的是系統南側捲入乾空氣,對核心雲區稍為削弱和導致環流不對稱。週中高壓將重新建立西伸,驅使“迪內奧”加速向西南移動,登陸莫桑比克東南沿岸。

除了關注風暴吹襲所造成的影響外,“迪內奧”的另一看點是她的巔峰強度,要知歷來強烈氣旋此地出沒屢見不鮮。主流數值模式認為,受惠於良好條件和較慢移速,“迪內奧”於登陸前有一定機會達到熱帶氣旋強度,亦不排除鑑於其細小體積有迅速增強的可能。有一種情況是風暴採取較為偏南的路徑移動,停留在洋面更久並達到較高強度(包括 EC 在內的數值模式曾經報過此一變數存在)。無論如何,“迪內奧”都有相當大的發展潜力,至於時間容許與否就只有拭目以待。


HWRF:935mb 巔峰登陸(參考居多)

图片:hwrf_mslp_wind_98S_32.png



JTWC 第一報上望 65 節:

图片:sh052017.20170213134444.gif



图片:bd0-lalo.gif



TPXS11 PGTW 131217
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98S (E OF MOZAMBIQUE)
B. 13/1200Z
C. 21.38S
D. 39.95E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   CHAPPOTIN
[颱風巨爵于2017-02-13 22:33编辑了帖子]
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  • 9914dan
    好评度 +1
    原创帖
    02-13 21:46
十載追風失意多,一笑看破風雲過。
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meow
世纪风王
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9楼#
发布于:2017-02-13 22:24
底层风眼已近乎完成了。

图片:20170213.1304.f16.x.colorpct_91h_91v.05SDINEO.40kts-998mb-215S-398E.62pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2017-02-13 22:25编辑了帖子]
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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