颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[SH(16-17)]汤加以东热带低压09F(97P) - KNES一度分析T=2.5

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-02-10 06:12
97P INVEST 170209 1800  20.7S  176.1W SHEM   25  1004

图片:20170209.1940.himawari-8.x.vis1km.97PINVEST.25kts-1004mb-207S-1761W.100pc.jpg



图片:bd-animated.gif


TXPS24 KNES 091843
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
B.  09/1800Z
C.  20.7S
D.  176.1W
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A ROBUST AREA OF PERSISTENT  DEEP
CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. POSITION OF LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND WAS AIDED BY EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES
WHICH SHOWED CONVECTION SHEARED TO EAST OF CIRCULATION. DT=2.0 BASED ON
CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE COLD OVERCAST
WHICH IS GREATER THAN 90NM WIDE. MET=2.0 BASED ON 24 HOUR DEVELOPING
TREND. PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...RUMINSKI
蔚為奇觀

图片:latestSWP.png

图片:20170209.1800.himawari8.ir.x.shem.x.jpg


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[颱風巨爵于2017-02-14 01:21编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
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十載追風失意多,一笑看破風雲過。
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2017-02-10 08:50
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 092352 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE [999HPA] LOCATED NEAR 20.6S 174.3W
AT 092100UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD09F MOVING EAST AT
06 KNOTS.
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOVING TD09F EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.



TXPS24 KNES 101209
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97P)
B.  10/1130Z
C.  22.4S
D.  169.0W
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A CENTER LOCATED LESS THAN A 1/2DEG
FROM DG WHICH YIELDS A DT=3.0 MET=2.0 PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT BECAUSE
THE CLOUD FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...FISHER
[颱風巨爵于2017-02-14 01:24编辑了帖子]
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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  • 注册日期2011-07-16
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2楼#
发布于:2017-02-11 10:46
NRL已撤,云图上看形态倒是不错

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE [1000HPA] LOCATED NEAR 22.9S 167.1W
AT 101800UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD09F MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOVING TD09F EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:SHGOESVS.JPG

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