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[SH(16-17)]TCFA - 西澳近岸热带低压15U(93S) - 大型季风低压系统,西澳沿海风雨强劲

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更多 发布于:2017-02-06 11:04
93S INVEST 170206 0000  16.4S  124.2E SHEM   15   NA

图片:20170206.020500.terra.modis.Visible.tc1793SINVEST.covg100p0.modislance.res1km.jp



Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough is active over the Browse Basin, Timor Sea, Arafura Sea and over waters north of the Pilbara. A weak low may form in the monsoon trough on Monday near the west Kimberley coast. The system will slowly develop while moving west or southwest away from the Kimberley during Tuesday. There is a Moderate risk of this system developing into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday as it moves over open waters north of the Pilbara coast.

The likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Low
Wednesday:Moderate

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[颱風巨爵于2017-02-10 17:43编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2017-02-06 14:27
The monsoon trough is active over the Browse Basin, Timor Sea, Arafura Sea and over waters north of the Pilbara. A weak low is forming near the west Kimberley coast. The system will slowly develop while moving west or southwest away from the Kimberley during Tuesday.
There is a Moderate risk of developing into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday if the system remains over water. There is a large amount of uncertainty, both in system track and development. Regardless of the development of the system, gales maybe possible in eastern quadrants aided by the active monsoonal surge, and may extend onto the Pilbara coast between Wallal and Mardie. The system crossing the coast east of Karratha during Wednesday before reaching tropical cyclone intensity is the most likely scenario.
During Thursday the system may have reached tropical cyclone intensity if it has remained over water. However the system crossing the coast into the west Pilbara is the most likely forecast. Gales could still be possible in coastal parts west of Karratha, but are likely to ease later in the day.

The likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:Low
Wednesday:Moderate
Thursday:Moderate
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2楼#
发布于:2017-02-07 14:17
15U
At 2pm WST Tuesday, a weak tropical low (15U), 988hPa, was located near 17.4S 120.1E, about 230 kilometres west northwest of Broome and 360 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland. Recent movement has been to the west southwest at about 9 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to move in a southwesterly direction through the remainder of today and on Wednesday, towards the Pilbara coast. The low should cross the Pilbara coast during Wednesday, somewhere between Pardoo and Mardie. By this stage it is unlikely to have developed into a tropical cyclone.
Even though the low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone, gales are possible in the northern and eastern quadrants. As a result, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and dangerous surf conditions are possible along the coast between Cape Leveque and Port Hedland, including Broome. A Severe Weather Warning [IDW20032] is current; refer to www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for more details.
Heavy rainfall is expected with the passage of the low and with the vigorous monsoonal flow to the north of the low. Various Flood Warnings are current across the Kimberley and Pilbara; refer to www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for more details.
The likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Low
Thursday:Low
Friday:Low

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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3楼#
发布于:2017-02-07 14:20
应该没有机会了在陆上BOM不会认为热带系统。
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颱風巨爵
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4楼#
发布于:2017-02-08 07:50
TCFA
譯文:

備註/
1. 在未來12至24小時,從南緯18.4度,東經119.6度至南緯23.8度,東經115.0度兩邊各175海里的範圍內可能形成一個明顯的熱帶氣旋。現有數據並不支持發出帶編號的熱帶氣旋警報。此區域內風力估計達30至35節。一幅協調世界時07日21時00分的氣象衛星圖像顯示一個環流中心位於南緯19.2度,東經118.9度附近。此系統正以08節向西南移動。


2. 備註:原先位於南緯17.9度,東經122.9度附近的對流區(INVEST 93S)現在位於南緯19.2度,東經118.9度附近,即在澳洲黑德蘭港之東北偏北約70海里。動態色調強化紅外線衛星圖像顯示一個季風低壓環流及其位於低層環流中心西緣上的深厚對流。一幅協調世界時07日19時26分,頻率為890億赫兹的「全球降水探測」(Global Precipitation Measurement — GPM)微波圖像揭示該道對流已經開始捲入整體環流之中。一幅協調世界時07日14時10分的進階散射儀(Advanced Scatterometer - ADSCAT)「靶心」圖像顯示一個龐大而微弱的核心風區(10-15節)被正在北邊旋捲但與此熱帶系統無直接關係的強勁風潮包圍。來自羅萊淺灘(北方100海里)的實測確認風潮風力介乎35至45節。此外,澳洲西岸一股達30至35節的南風潮正幫助系統閉合其廣闊的環流。系統正位於一個惡劣的環境中,非常強烈(超過40節)的垂直風切變阻礙對流於中心上方鞏固。然而風切在澳洲西北部較弱(15-20節)以及該處有強健的高空流出。全球性的預報模式顯示系統將循西南路徑於未來12-24小時登陸。當擾動登陸時,預期環流北側出現中等至強勁的烈風風力。表面最高持續風速估計達30至35節。最低海平面氣壓估計989毫巴左右。一個明顯的熱帶氣旋於未來24小時內發展的潛力頗高。


3. 此警報將於協調世界時08日21時30分前被重新發出、升級為熱帶氣旋警報或解除。 //

WTXS21 PGTW 072130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.4S 119.6E TO 23.8S 115.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 072100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2S 118.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9S 122.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 118.9E, APPROXIMATELY
70 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION CIRCULATION
WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071926Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO WRAP INTO THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION. A 071410Z ASCAT BULLSEYE SHOWED A LARGE WEAK CORE OF
WINDS (10-15 KNOTS) SURROUNDED BY STRONG SURGE WINDS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE.
OBSERVATIONS FROM ROWLEY SHOALS (100NM TO THE NORTH) HAVE CONFIRMED
THE SURGE WINDS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA
IS HELPING ROUND OFF THE BROAD CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN
A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY STRONG (40+ KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
CENTER. HOWEVER, VWS IS LOWER (15-20 KNOTS) OVER NORTHWESTERN
AUSTRALIA AND THERE IS A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN 12-24 HOURS ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AS THE DISTURBANCE MAKES
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 989 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
082130Z.//
NNNN

羅萊淺灘海平面實測:
今晨持續受烈風吹襲,最高陣風高達106km/h,氣壓徘徊在990hPa以下。

图片:Rowley Shoals.png

图片:Fix.png



图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif



TXXS28 KNES 072357
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93S)
B.  07/2330Z
C.  19.0S
D.  118.8E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI/AMSU/SSMIS(← 很盡責)
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC)
WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A DT.  FT BASED ON MET. MET=1.5. PT=1.5.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    07/1818Z 18.9S 119.3E SSMI
    07/1858Z 18.9S 118.9E AMSU
    07/2227Z 18.7S 119.0E SSMIS

...SCHWARTZ

TPXS11 PGTW 080031
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93S (NE OF LEARMONTH)
B. 08/0000Z
C. 19.40S
D. 118.87E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PTAND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   07/1926Z  19.17S  118.90E  GPMI   07/2227Z  19.32S  118.80E  SSMS

   MARTINEZ
[颱風巨爵于2017-02-08 09:34编辑了帖子]
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5楼#
发布于:2017-02-08 15:50
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:04 pm WST on Wednesday 8 February 2017
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 11 February 2017.

Potential Cyclones:  

At 2pm WST Wednesday, a tropical low (15U), 984hPa, was located over land near
20.4S 119.3E, about 70 kilometres east of Port Hedland. Recent movement has been
to the south at about 15 kilometres per hour.
The low is now over land, and is not expected to develop into a tropical
cyclone. However, damaging winds and areas of heavy rainfall are possible
through parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne today and on Thursday. A Severe
Weather Warning [IDW20032] is current; refer to www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for
more details.
Various Flood Warnings are also current across the Kimberley and Pilbara; refer
to www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for more details.

The likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Thursday: Very Low
                                   Friday: Very Low
                                   Saturday: Very Low

图片:vis_lalo-animated (1).gif


 

图片:IDY00030.201702080600.png


 
从对流云系中蹦出一个LLCC,今天早上登陆西澳,从最近的云图上看,中高层旋转中心之下似乎没有另外的LLCC。 BOM据此不看好系统未来发展。
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6楼#
发布于:2017-02-08 17:18
iam最小值锛歍ropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:04 pm WST on Wednesday 8 February 2017
for the period unti...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
比Yvette的气压还低了……本年度风季完全没按照BoM的预期走。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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发布于:2017-02-08 22:24
JTWC:Final Warning -> LOW
WTXS21 PGTW 081430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072121Z FEB 17//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 072130). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 118.9E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 118.2E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED INLAND AND IS NOW TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWEST REGION OF AUSTRALIA. THIS IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD, MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH DEEP CONVECTION
AND NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM LEARMONTH INDICATE PERSISTENT 20 TO 25 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE OVER WATER
NEAR TAU 36, HOWEVER, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS UNLIKELY DUE TO
COLD SST (21-23C) AND THE PRESENCE OF COOLER, DRIER SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH WEST OF AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 987MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg


图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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8楼#
发布于:2017-02-09 16:45
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 9 February 2017
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 12 February 2017.

Potential Cyclones:  

At 1pm WST Thursday, a tropical low (15U), 985hPa, was located over land near
23.9S 114.7E, about 150 kilometres northeast of Carnarvon. Recent movement has
been to the southwest at about 30 kilometres per hour and it should move out
over water to the west of the WA mainland offshore between Carnarvon and Shark
Bay later in the evening.
The low is NOT expected to develop into a tropical cyclone. However, damaging
winds and areas of heavy rainfall are possible through parts of the Pilbara and
Gascoyne today. A Severe Weather Warning [IDW20032] is current; refer to
www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for more details.
Various Flood Warnings are also current across the Kimberley and Pilbara; refer
to www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for more details.

The likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Friday: Very Low
                                   Saturday: Very Low
                                   Sunday: Very Low

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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发布于:2017-02-10 14:24
JTWC撤编了。

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Friday 10 February 2017
for the period until midnight WST Monday 13 February 2017.

Potential Cyclones:

At 2pm WST Friday, the tropical low (15U), 996 hPa, was located around 235km to the west southwest of Denham. Recent movement continues to be to the west further away from the WA mainland. The low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.
There are no other significant lows in the Western Region at present and none are expected to develop over the next three days.

The likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Very Low

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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