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[北大西洋]大西洋北部NA02-0203,EC:931hpa GFS:934hpa OPC:932hpa Met Office:929hpa,风场扫描≥80kt

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-02-03 16:14

图片:A_w_sfc_color.png


图片:A_96hrsfc.gif


图片:gfs_z500_mslp_atl_15.png


图片:gfs_ir_atl_15.png


目前还只是个气旋波,但数值预报3-4天后的北大强温气就是它了,GFS 00Z一报甚至预报可以达到935hpa的强度
[beta于2017-02-06 23:22编辑了帖子]
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论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2017-02-03 16:23

图片:54.phase1.png


图片:54.phase2.png


GFS路径
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2楼#
发布于:2017-02-03 18:15
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC FEB 03
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FEB 04
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FEB 05

...STORM WARNING...
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW 36N67W 1012 MB. WITHIN 120 NM SE AND 300
NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N66W 1006 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE...960 NM
SW...AND 660 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N55W 996 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 360 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N36W 985 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
180 NM SE OF A FRONT TO EXTEND FROM LOW CENTER TO 36N50W WINDS
40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM N...900 NM
S...1320 NM SW...AND 960 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS
9 TO 20 FT.
[风行者于2017-02-03 18:49编辑了帖子]
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3楼#
发布于:2017-02-03 18:18
巨幅调弱。。。

图片:gfs_pres_wind_atl_15.png



图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_atl_5.png


[风行者于2017-02-03 18:49编辑了帖子]
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4楼#
发布于:2017-02-03 18:51

图片:ps2png-atls17-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-KXr_8e.png

图片:ps2png-atls02-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-XLkpnm.png

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5楼#
发布于:2017-02-04 10:18
OPC 18Z
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.LOW 34N72W 1017 MB MOVING NE 30 KT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. WITHIN 120 NM N...NW...S...AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 35N68W 1012 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N51W 990 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 44N BETWEEN 68W AND A LINE FROM 31N51W TO 40N42W TO 44N42W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N39W 980 MB. WITHIN 480 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST E OF AREA 49N34W 948 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 24 TO 40 FT. ALSO WITHIN 540 NM SW AND 180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 780 NM SW AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.
[风行者于2017-02-04 10:22编辑了帖子]
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6楼#
发布于:2017-02-04 13:53

图片:ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_4.png

图片:ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-ikNE_z.png

图片:gfs_z500_mslp_atl_10.png


其实机构也没怎么调弱,EC 12Z一报上望938,GFS 00Z一报同样上望938
[beta于2017-02-04 14:03编辑了帖子]
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7楼#
发布于:2017-02-04 13:55
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.LOW 36N66W 1012 MB MOVING NE 40 KT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.
WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 300 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 37N61W 1007 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N45W 988 MB. WITHIN 360 NM S AND SE
QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
180 NM N SEMICIRCLE...ALSO WITHIN 600 NM SE...720 NM S...AND
1020 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 20
FT...HIGHEST SW.
.42 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST E OF AREA 49N34W 952 MB. OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 50 TO 65 KT.
SEAS 20 TO 36 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 51N30W 944 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SW
QUADRANT WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 TO 32 FT. ALSO WITHIN 360 NM
NW...900 NM W AND 960 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13
TO 26 FT...EXCEPT NW QUADRANT SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

只是风力实在是很弱的样子,OPC只上望65kt,今年不知道怎么了大西洋风力强的气旋也很少
[beta于2017-02-04 14:07编辑了帖子]
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    只上望65是因为出责任区了吧
    02-04 17:25
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8楼#
发布于:2017-02-04 17:23
beta锛毱涫祷挂裁辉趺吹魅酰珽C 12Z一报上望938,GFS 00Z一报同样上望938鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
之前GFS上望过921/90kt
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9楼#
发布于:2017-02-04 18:29
虽然只预报了65,但其实是因为出了责任区,+48h预报图上其实画了75kt。
OPC 06Z
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.LOW 38N60W 1007 MB MOVING NE 40 KT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 34N69W. WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT
AND 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
ALSO FROM 31N TO 43N W OF 69W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N41W 982 MB. WITHIN 540 NM SW AND 420 NM
SE QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
31N TO 48N BETWEEN 35W AND 61W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 22
FT...HIGHEST SW OF LOW CENTER.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL E OF AREA 50N33W 954 MB. OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 50 TO 65 KT.
SEAS 18 TO 34 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL E OF AREA. FROM 42N TO 50N BETWEEN
35W AND 44W WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
39N TO 54N BETWEEN 35W AND A LINE FROM 54N52W TO 39N45W WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 24 FT.    
另外GFS 06Z调强到932/80+,850百帕目测可达115kt以上(之前最高预报过125)
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