颱風巨爵
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[SH(16-17)]迪戈加西亚东南热带低压第3号(91S) - 侏儒系统挣扎求存,受惠流出苟延残喘

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更多 发布于:2017-01-25 05:06
MFR路径图

图片:SWI$03_20162017.png


编扰资讯 (NRL)

91S INVEST 170124 1800   9.7S   77.5E SHEM   15  1010

图片:20170124.1900.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.91SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-97S-775E.100pc.jpg


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[颱風巨爵于2017-02-27 08:12编辑了帖子]
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十載追風失意多,一笑看破風雲過。
933954
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1楼#
发布于:2017-01-26 17:43
TPXS10 PGTW 260940
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 26/0900Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/MET7
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HART

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颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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2楼#
发布于:2017-01-27 21:38
MFR 编扰,上望中等热带风暴

图片:trajectoire.png



Tropical Disturbance South of Diego-Garcia :
Since this morning, convection has shown signs of organization. Thus, since 0600Z, a little curved band has developped within the northwestern quadrant of the circulation and this night microwave imagery showed a low level center better defined. Water-vapor imagery shows a good polerward and equatorward upper level outflow. In the absence of ASCAT data, maximal winds are estimated about 15/20 kt with 25 kt in the southern quadrant by gradient effect. Minimal pressure is estimated at 1008 hPa. The centre is located near 11.0S/74.3E at 0900Z. Due to the improving of the cloudpattern, advisories will be produce at 1200Z.

Environmental conditions are forecasted to become unfavorable with a moderate to strong easterly vertical windshear. The low level feeding is also forecasted to decrease. Then, deterministic and ensemble models don't deepen tis circulation.

For the next 5 days, the likelihood of development of a moderate tropical storm is become moderate to hight South of Diego Garcia.

图片:DBKNK032JGY.png

图片:20170127.0954.noaa19.x.color_89_150.91SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-97S-775E.100pc.jpg


[颱風巨爵于2017-01-27 22:50编辑了帖子]
十載追風失意多,一笑看破風雲過。
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刚打酱油回来
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发布于:2017-01-28 03:41
TPXS10 PGTW 271912
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (S OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 27/1800Z
C. 11.26S
D. 74.27E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.0 DT. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   BERMEA

TXXS26 KNES 271858
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)
B.  27/1730Z
C.  10.6S
D.  74.0E
E.  THREE/MET-7
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR
H.  REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH CIRCULAR LL CLOUD
LINES AND A CENTER NEAR TO A VERY SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. MET
AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...RAMIREZ
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tontonyua
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发布于:2017-01-28 06:50
新春佳节出首旋,今年1月快过完了全球一个命名热带气旋也没有,月底最后机会
我与论坛相遇在猴年马月。 tontonyua
天气皮鸭。
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刚打酱油回来
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5楼#
发布于:2017-01-28 11:26

图片:vis0-lalo.gif


TPXS10 PGTW 280259
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (S OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 28/0230Z
C. 10.51S
D. 73.72E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.5 DT. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   27/2112Z  11.27S  74.30E  SSMI

   BERMEA
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发布于:2017-01-28 21:09
WTIO30 FMEE 281222

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/3/20162017
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  3

2.A POSITION 2017/01/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0 S / 72.9 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL
NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/01/29 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISTURBANCE
24H: 2017/01/29 12 UTC: 11.2 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISTURBANCE
36H: 2017/01/30 00 UTC: 11.3 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, LOW
48H: 2017/01/30 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, LOW
60H: 2017/01/31 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.0, CI=1.5

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW EXPOSED AND CONVECTION IS
ONLY ORGANISED IN A FEW CONVERGENCE LINES. ON THE LAST IMAGES, A FEW
CONVECTIVE BURSTS TRIGGERED NEAR THE CENTER BUT THEY REMAIN SPORADIC.

THE LOW IS STILL TRACKING WESTWARD, ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A HIGH
GEOPOTENTIAL AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE ALONG THIS TRACK WITH DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER EASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING UNDER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND THUS STILL UNDERGOING THE DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS OF THE
SHEAR. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM AND DISRUPT THE TRADE WINDS FLOW, WEAKENING THE POLEWARD
CONVERGENCE. THE MONSOON FLOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN.

IN THIS UNFAVORABLE CONTEXT, AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL FORECAST
A DISSIPATION OF THE LOW BY TUESDAY, EVEN IF THE LAST IFS RUN IS
SUGGESTING AN UNLIKELY AND WEAK TEMPORARY REINTENSIFICATION TOMORROW.

EXCEPT REINTENSIFICATION, THIS ADVISORY IS THE LAST ISSUED BY THE
RMSC CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BE MONITORED IN THE SHIPPING
BULLETINS OF METAREA VIII (FQIO25).=

图片:MFR 20170128 12UTC 2.png

[iam最小值于2017-01-29 10:58编辑了帖子]
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  • iam最小值
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    复制的时候也稍微看下内容吧,复制个法文谁看得懂
    01-29 10:58
发发,我们依然想念着你!
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933954
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发布于:2017-01-29 09:41
JTWC: LOW

图片:abiosair.jpg


   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1S 72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION THAT HAS
STARTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 280414 ASCAT PASS SHOWED A WELL DEFINED LLCC
WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER. HOWEVER, THE
CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL DUE TO PERSISTENT 25 TO 30 KNOT
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
[颱風巨爵于2017-01-29 10:07编辑了帖子]
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8楼#
发布于:2017-01-29 11:40

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TPXS10 PGTW 290306
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (S OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 29/0230Z
C. 10.81S
D. 71.68E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   28/2233Z  10.85S  72.03E  MMHS
   28/2241Z  10.93S  72.15E  SSMS

   BERMEA
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发布于:2017-01-30 13:54
TXXS26 KNES 300539
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)
B.  30/0530Z
C.  11.6S
D.  70.3E
E.  THREE/MET-7
F.  T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON SHEAR PATREN DEFINED BY CIRCULAR
CLOUD LINES, PROXIMITY LESS THAT 1.25 DG FROM OVERCAST, SMALL
SIZE. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...SCHWARTZ
TPXS10 PGTW 300614
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 30/0600Z
C. 11.78S
D. 70.25E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   30/0206Z  11.38S  70.47E  MMHS
   MARTINEZ
[933954于2017-01-30 14:21编辑了帖子]
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