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[SH(16-17)]苏门答腊西南94S - 10.2S 99.4E

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更多 发布于:2016-11-11 15:01
94S INVEST 161111 0600   7.7S   92.2E SHEM   15   NA
94S INVEST 161111 0600   7.7S   92.2E SHEM   15  1010

图片:20161111.0610.himawari8.x.vis2km.94SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-77S-922E.100pc.jpg

图片:WMBds222.png


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[颱風巨爵于2016-11-16 03:07编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2016-11-11 18:21
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 9 November 2016
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 12 November 2016.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

A weak tropical low near 5S 95E (north of the region) will move slowly southwest
and gradually deepen over the next few days. By Saturday it will most likely be
near the northwest of the of the Western Region (10S 90E) and may cross into the
area on Sunday or early next week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Thursday: Very Low
                                   Friday: Very Low
                                   Saturday: Very Low
There are no other significant lows in the Western Region at present and none
are expected to develop over the next three days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Thursday: Very Low
                                   Friday: Very Low
                                   Saturday: Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Low:          5% to 20%
Moderate:     20 to 50%                    High:         Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.
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2楼#
发布于:2016-11-12 16:39
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Saturday, 12th November 2016,Time 07.00 Western Indonesia Time

Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:
None.
Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Suspect area with minimum pressure 1007 mb is observed in Indian Ocean near 8.2 S 92.3 E, about 1617 km southwest of Jakarta , and moving West 2 km/hr.
Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Sunday (tomorrow) : small possibility
Monday (tomorrow +1): small possibility
Tuesday (tomorrow +2) : small possibility

Note:
Small possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is less than 10%.
Medium possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is about 20%-40%.
Large possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is more than 50%.

Southern Indonesia area is area within equator to 11 S and 90 to 141 E.


TPXS11 PGTW 120612
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (SW OF SUMATRA)
B. 12/0530Z
C. 7.21S
D. 92.03E
E. THREE/MET7
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   LEMBKE
[刚打酱油回来于2016-11-12 16:43编辑了帖子]
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3楼#
发布于:2016-11-13 03:09

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TPXS11 PGTW 121835
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (SW OF SUMATRA)
B. 12/1800Z
C. 7.71S
D. 92.52E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   BERMEA
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发布于:2016-11-13 11:24
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 93.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 92.3E, APPROXIMATELY 390
NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION BEING SHEARED AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND A VERY
BROAD CIRCULATION. A 121203Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC, WITH SOMEWHAT
DEFINED BANDING WRAPPING INTO IT. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO 20-25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR;
HOWEVER IT IS LOCATED WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LENDING TO THE DISTURBANCE PERSISTING OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM, BUT AGREE THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DUE TO
AREAS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

图片:abiosair.jpg

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5楼#
发布于:2016-11-13 18:30
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Sunday, 13 November 2016, 08.00 Western Indonesia Time

Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:
None.

Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Suspect area with minimum pressure 1007 mb is observed in Indian Ocean near 8.1S 92.5E, about 1185km west southwest of Bengkulu, and moving west 3 km/hr.

Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Thursday (tomorrow) : small possibility
Wednesday (tomorrow +1): smallpossibility
Thursday (tomorrow +2) : small possibility

Note:
Small possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is less than 10%.
Medium possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is about 20%-40%.
Large possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is more than 50%.

Southern Indonesia area is area within equator to 11 S and 90 to 141 E.
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发布于:2016-11-14 07:00
ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZNOV2016//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 93.0E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//


TXXS27 KNES 131755
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)
B.  13/1730Z
C.  7.9S
D.  93.5E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU
H.  REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN DEFINED BY CIRCULAR
CLOUD LINES, PROXIMITY MORE THAN 1.25 DG FROM OVERCAST, SMALL
SIZE. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    13/1533Z 8.0S 93.3E AMSU

...SCHWARTZ
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7楼#
发布于:2016-11-15 15:25
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Tuesday 15 November 2016
for the period until midnight WST Friday 18 November 2016.

Potential Cyclones:  

A tropical low was located near 09S 98E at 12pm WST Tuesday (north of the
region) and has been slowly moving to the east. The low is forecast to become
slow moving tomorrow before starting to move back to the west on Thursday and
Friday. Environmental conditions are unfavourable for the low to develop into a
tropical cyclone, and it is forecast to remain north of 10S out of the region.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Wednesday: Very Low
                                   Thursday: Very Low
                                   Friday: Very Low
There are no other significant lows in the Western Region at present and none
are expected to develop over the next three days.

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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8楼#
发布于:2016-11-15 22:43
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Tuesday, 15 November 2016 08.00 Western Indonesia Time

Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:
None.

Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Suspect area with minimum pressure 1007 mb is observed in west southwest waters of Lampung near 8 S 98 E, about 500 km west southwest of Lampung, and moving stationary.
Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Wednesday (tomorrow) : small possibility
Thursday (tomorrow +1): small possibility
Friday (tomorrow +2) : small possibility

Note:
Small possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is less than 10%.
Medium possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is about 20%-40%.
Large possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is more than 50%.

Southern Indonesia area is area within equator to 11 S and 90 to 141 E.


TPXS11 PGTW 151231
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (SW OF SUMATRA)
B. 15/1200Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/MET7
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL FIX ISSUED BY JTWC ON THIS
AREA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   CHAPPOTIN
[刚打酱油回来于2016-11-15 23:16编辑了帖子]
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