颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-08-03
  • 最后登录2017-04-29
  • 粉丝36
  • 关注5
  • 发帖数278
  • 来自
阅读:1088回复:12

[WP]28W机构发报专帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2016-11-10 13:47

图片:wp9616.gif



WTPN21 PGTW 100530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 170.7E TO 11.9N 159.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 170.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 171.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 170.0E, APPROXIMATELY
185NM NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN.  ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WELL DEFINED CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.  A MHS
100257Z MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN
FROM THE WESTERN SIDE.  RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY REVEALS A MORE
PRONOUNCED WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KTS OF WIND.  UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS) AND WEAK DIVERGENT OUTFLOW.  DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE LIMITED DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS
WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110530Z.
//
NNNN
[9914dan于2016-11-11 09:03编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 威望 +3 贡献值 +3
  • tcfa_gw
    贡献值 3
    原创帖
    2016-11-10 14:38
  • tcfa_gw
    威望 3
    原创帖
    2016-11-10 14:38
喜欢0 评分2
十載追風失意多,一笑看破風雲過。
拉姆爱推销
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-11-30
  • 最后登录2017-04-27
  • 粉丝136
  • 关注52
  • 发帖数4134
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2016-11-10 15:15
食在有味道
文艺小清新
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2009-06-25
  • 最后登录2017-04-29
  • 粉丝81
  • 关注43
  • 发帖数1878
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2016-11-11 11:09
JTWC/28W/#01/11-11 00Z

图片:wp2816.gif


WTPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100521ZNOV2016//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z --- NEAR 9.8N 163.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 163.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 9.5N 161.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 9.5N 158.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 9.4N 155.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 9.6N 152.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 10.4N 147.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 11.0N 143.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 11.7N 138.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 163.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 100530). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 27W
(MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
1条评分, 威望 +3
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2009-06-25
  • 最后登录2017-04-29
  • 粉丝81
  • 关注43
  • 发帖数1878
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2016-11-11 11:12
JTWC/28W/#01/11-11 00Z Prognostic Reasoning

WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
139 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS
HAVE BEGUN TO WRAP INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE
ABOVE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES BETWEEN
T1.5 AND T2.0 (30-35 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 101910Z WINDSAT
SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS
NEARLY SURROUNDING THE LLCC. HIGHER WINDS ARE INDICATED IN THE
WINDSAT DATA, BUT ANALYSIS INDICATES THESE ARE UNREPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ACTUAL WIND FIELD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND WEAKLY DIVERGENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING WESTWARD WITH THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ON THIS SYSTEM.
   B. TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAK WESTERLY OUTFLOW, WHICH
WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAU'S, THE STR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, BRINGING TD 26W TO 60 KNOTS BY END OF
FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
1条评分, 威望 +3
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
tcfa_gw
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2012-04-02
  • 最后登录2017-04-29
  • 粉丝285
  • 关注102
  • 发帖数12645
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2016-11-11 17:51
JTWC/28W/#02/11-11 06Z

WTPN32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 002    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z --- NEAR 9.5N 162.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 162.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 9.3N 159.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 9.4N 155.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 9.8N 153.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 10.2N 150.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 10.8N 145.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 11.4N 140.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 12.0N 135.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 161.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284
NM NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND
120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 27W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:wp2816.gif

1条评分, 威望 +3
僕らタイムフライヤー 時を駆け上がるクライマー
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
tcfa_gw
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2012-04-02
  • 最后登录2017-04-29
  • 粉丝285
  • 关注102
  • 发帖数12645
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2016-11-11 17:51
JTWC/28W/#02/11-11 06Z Prognostic Reasoning

WDPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
284 NM NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE WEAK LLCC IS EVIDENT IN AN
110606Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON THE DEFINED LLCC IN THE GPM IMAGE; HOWEVER, THE
INTENSITY COULD BE LOWER. TD 28W IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE UNDER STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. LIMITED DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW
TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE WANING CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WESTWARD WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY; HOWEVER, THE PEAK INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS
BEEN DECREASED.
   B. TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ONLY SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING THE CYCLONE AT A WEAK
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK; HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE DEGREE OF THE NORTHWESTWARD
COURSE. THE EARLY INSTABILITY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
1条评分, 威望 +3
僕らタイムフライヤー 時を駆け上がるクライマー
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
tcfa_gw
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2012-04-02
  • 最后登录2017-04-29
  • 粉丝285
  • 关注102
  • 发帖数12645
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2016-11-11 22:42
JTWC/28W/#03/11-11 12Z
WTPN32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 003    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z --- NEAR 9.1N 160.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 160.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 9.2N 157.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 9.6N 154.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 10.5N 151.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 11.2N 148.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 12.7N 143.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 13.9N 138.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 14.1N 133.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 9.1N 159.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190
NM NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND
121500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 27W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:wp2816.gif

[tcfa_gw于2016-11-11 22:47编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 威望 +3
僕らタイムフライヤー 時を駆け上がるクライマー
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
tcfa_gw
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2012-04-02
  • 最后登录2017-04-29
  • 粉丝285
  • 关注102
  • 发帖数12645
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2016-11-11 22:49
JTWC/28W/#03/11-11 12Z Prognostic Reasoning

WDPN32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
190 NM NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS LIMITED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS EVIDENT IN AN 111117Z ASCAT PASS.
THE SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A MAX OF 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WHICH SUPPORTS THE DECREASE IN INTENSITY. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE LLCC ON THE AMSU IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. TD 28W IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE UNDER
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. LIMITED DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WANING
CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WESTWARD WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ONLY SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE, REACHING 40 KNOTS AT TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE STEERING STR WHERE IT WILL GAIN AN ENHANCED OUTFLOW
AND DECREASING VWS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM TURNS WESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY CLOSER TO THE MARIANA ISLANDS;
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WEAKENING IN THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE, THE NEAR TERM TRACK WILL BE ERRATIC. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL INDICATES A CONTINUED WEAKENING THAT DISSIPATES PRIOR TO
REACHING THE ISLAND CHAIN. DUE TO THE LARGE DISAGREEMENT IN BOTH
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR TD 28W, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
1条评分, 威望 +3
僕らタイムフライヤー 時を駆け上がるクライマー
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2017-04-29
  • 粉丝212
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数11148
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2016-11-12 08:54
JTWC/28W/#04/11-11 18Z

图片:wp2816 20161111 1800Z.gif


 
WTPN32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 004    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 9.0N 159.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.0N 159.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 9.2N 156.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 9.8N 152.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 10.5N 149.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 11.3N 146.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 12.9N 141.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 13.8N 136.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 13.5N 130.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 158.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 137
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 27W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
1条评分, 威望 +3
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2017-04-29
  • 粉丝212
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数11148
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2016-11-12 08:55
JTWC/28W/#04/11-11 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
137 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES INCLUDING 111618Z SSMI AND 111736Z GMI
IMAGES. THE INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEW BATCH OF DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH CONTINUES TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT.
TD 28W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, LIMITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLCC. THERE IS A
SMALL PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT SHEAR. HOWEVER, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS CURRENTLY
REGARDED AS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO DUE TO ANTICIPATED PASSAGE OVER
VERY WARM WATER AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TD 28W SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH. A MORE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TREND IS LIKELY AS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO DROP OFF AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND
THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
1条评分, 威望 +3
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
上一页
游客

返回顶部