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[EP]墨西哥西南四级飓风“西摩”(20E.Seymour) - 槽前爆发,风眼清空,对流强悍 - MAX:130KT

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更多 发布于:2016-10-22 02:00
JTWC云图特写
(0000Z:130 KT)

图片:20E_260000sams.JPG



编扰资讯 (NRL)

91E INVEST 161021 1800  11.0N   96.5W EPAC   20  1008

图片:LATEST.jpg


NHC

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png



1. Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a broad
area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
generally conducive for development of this disturbance over the
next few days, and a tropical depression will likely form early next
week while the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

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[颱風巨爵于2017-03-11 01:22编辑了帖子]
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十載追風失意多,一笑看破風雲過。
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1楼#
发布于:2016-10-23 00:29
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 22 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located about 350 miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for development of this low during the next few days,
and a tropical depression will likely form by early next week while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

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发布于:2016-10-23 14:40
TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 230630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 102.4W TO 15.0N 110.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
230600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
102.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
12.6N 102.8W, APPROXIMATELY 1440NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER
IT. A 230526Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DISTINCT BANDING AND
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC, MOSTLY CONSOLIDATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. A 230424Z METOP-B ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH 20-25KT WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240630Z.//
NNNN

图片:ep9116.gif











1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 325 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, have
become better organized since this afternoon.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later tonight or Sunday while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

图片:two_pac_5d0.png

[tcfa_gw于2016-10-23 17:48编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2016-10-23 17:23
NHC升格20E,首报上望飓风



000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230846
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Conventional and microwave satellite data indicate that deep
convection associated with the low pressure area located south of
Mexico has become much better organized overnight.  A fortuitous
0526 UTC GPM microwave overpass revealed a significant increase in
banding and was also very helpful in determining the center
location.  Based on these data, and an earlier partial ASCAT pass
which indicated that the circulation had become sufficiently well
defined, advisories are being initiated on the twentieth tropical
depression of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.  The
initial intensity has been set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with
Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB.

The depression is forecast to move over SSTs of 29-30 degrees
Celsius and remain in an area of vertical shear of around 10 kt or
less during the next 2 to 3 days, which should allow for
steady strengthening.  Despite these seemingly favorable
conditions, the global and regional hurricane models show much less
strengthening than the statistical SHIPS/LGEM guidance which show a
peak intensity of around 70-75 kt in about 3 days.  Given the
expected favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is above
the dynamical guidance and model consensus, but is lower than the
SHIPS and LGEM.  Late in the forecast period, cooler SSTs and
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to weaken
the cyclone.

Since the depression is still in the formative stage, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/14.  A strong mid- to upper-
level ridge that is forecast to shift westward over the Baja
California peninsula should steer the cyclone west-northwestward
during the next several days.  By day 4, the cyclone is forecast
to turn northwestward when it approaches the western periphery of
the ridge.  The track guidance is in good agreement on this overall
scenario, but there are some differences in the forward speed of the
cyclone and exactly when the northwestward turn will materialize.
The NHC forecast track is slightly faster than the model consensus
and is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 13.1N 103.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 13.8N 105.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 14.7N 107.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 15.4N 110.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W 65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 17.0N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 18.8N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

图片:084735W_sm.gif

图片:ir-animated.gif

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yuwenhuang
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发布于:2016-10-23 20:33
形态挺好。

图片:20E_230600sair.jpg

[iam最小值于2016-10-23 22:25编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2016-10-23 20:39
加幅图。

图片:ep2016 20161023 0600Z.gif

[iam最小值于2016-10-23 22:25编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2016-10-24 06:22
命名報
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 232046
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

The cyclone has become better organized during the last several
hours.  Visible satellite images suggest that an inner core is
forming, with a few curved bands surrounding this central
convection. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are
2.5/35 kt, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin are slightly higher.  In addition, an ASCAT pass around
1600 UTC showed maximum winds in the 30 to 35 kt range.  Based on
these data, the initial wind speed is increased to 35 kt.

The global models are in agreement that Seymour should remain in
a favorable upper-level wind pattern during the next few days.
These light upper-level winds, combined with very warm water and
high mid-level moisture values should allow Seymour to steadily, or
perhaps rapidly, strengthen during the next 72 hours. Beyond that
time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear, cooler waters,
and a decrease in moisture should end the strengthening trend and
induce weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the
previous one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt.  A
mid-level ridge over Mexico should continue to steer Seymour
west-northwestward at a slightly slower pace during the next few
days.  After that time, the ridge is likely to erode as a deep-
layer low pressure moves eastward toward California.  This pattern
change will likely cause Seymour to turn northwestward and then
northward in 4 to 5 days.   The models have shifted considerably to
the right at the longer range points, and the new NHC track forecast
has been adjusted in that direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 13.9N 105.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 14.5N 107.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 15.2N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 17.8N 119.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 20.8N 121.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 23.1N 120.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:204755W5_NL_sm.gif



過去數小時,位於墨西哥以南的熱帶低氣壓20E快速發展,NHC於太平洋時間午後將其升格為熱帶風暴「西摩」,是為東太今年第十八股命名風暴。

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

图片:WMBds64.png



從衛星雲圖動畫可見,西摩最近發展出多條外圍螺旋雲帶,核心雲區進一步建立,中心位置漸趨名確,與風場掃描顯示的旋轉中心相符。目前該區海域水温高達29-30度,上空正處於南北兩側較強風切區的中間,而北側有西風流出加強輻散,故下墊面和大氣條件皆有利增強。估計兩天內可增強為颶風,現時預測巔峰在C1上限左右,但留意數值過去幾報有所調強,有可能上試更高強度。

在副高偏東氣流的引導下,系統於週初將繼續向西北偏西移動,遠離墨西哥。其後,位處東北太平洋的深厚大槽會打擊陸上副高,而屆時系統亦移至副高西南側,將轉向西北然後北移。時值深秋,北緯20度以北水温在26度以下,受高緯較涼海水和低熱含量影響,加上大槽牽引乾空氣南下,西摩後期會快速減弱,化成空殻消失在茫茫西風之中。。

图片:14_pac.png

图片:20E_intensity_latest.png



另外,一年前 Patricia 在此叱吒風雲,一時無兩;光陰似箭,今日環境已不能同日而語了。
[颱風巨爵于2016-10-24 07:10编辑了帖子]
十載追風失意多,一笑看破風雲過。
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7楼#
发布于:2016-10-24 07:38
JTWC不跟随NHC,没升TS

图片:ep2016.gif


WTPN31 PHNC 232200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20E (SEYMOUR) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 105.3W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 105.3W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 14.5N 107.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 15.2N 110.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 15.8N 112.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 16.4N 115.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 17.8N 119.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 20.8N 121.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 23.1N 120.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
232200Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 106.1W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20E (SEYMOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1310 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND
242200Z.//
NNNN
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Mitch
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发布于:2016-10-24 09:46
不是美国海军不跟随是2点nhc评价就是30kt。
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yuwenhuang
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9楼#
发布于:2016-10-24 17:48
发展的还不错。

图片:ep2016.gif

图片:20E_240600sair.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2016-10-24 18:06编辑了帖子]
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