风王2012
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[报文翻译][2016] 1614号热带气旋“莫兰蒂”(16W.Meranti) JTWC预报理由翻译帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2016-09-13 20:41
“莫兰蒂”目前已经达到极高的强度,JTWC评价亦是今年以来最高。对于路径方面,JTWC与其余数值预报存在分歧,JTWC预报理由具有颇高的存档意义,目前莫兰蒂已经达到巅峰接近登陆,翻译贴开的比较晚,希望大家多多支持。本人将选择挑选之前比较有存档意义的预报理由补充翻译,确保翻译贴相对完整。

图片:截图20160914203650.png


说明:
1、由于该热带系统未来发展态势良好,且可能影响我国南部沿海,所以特开此贴。
2、本贴翻译JTWC报文,时间以协调世界時的作准。
3、翻译前为防止重复翻译原则上需要预约,可以直接回帖预约或发私信至开帖人预约。
4、为信息展示需要,请将报文原文和译文放置于同一楼层。若回帖预约的,请将翻译放在预约帖。
5、有时间的童鞋建议全文翻译,我们也鼓励抓要点进行简单翻译,简单翻译的要点:
发报时定位,过去的移动速度、结构、强度、环境场,未来的强度、路径、环境场,数值的预测。
6、本帖不允许发与翻译和预约不相符的内容,否则将被视为灌水删帖处理。
7、翻译中若若有其他任何疑惑,欢迎加入翻译小组QQ群152955236加入我们的讨论。
 
组织规则:
第一条 预报理由翻译贴是对JTWC Reasoning文件进行翻译的专贴。由于气旋的Reasoning文件翻译量不定,因此需要一定的人事组织,参与组织或翻译的会员将获得一定程度的奖励。
第二条 任何会员都可对任何JTWC升格的系统开贴,但原则上建议只对我国有影响的系统开帖。对不影响我国的系统,不建议单独开贴,翻译者可在追击贴或深度贴内进行,版主将按第八条之标准酌情加分。
第三条 开帖人默认为组织人,负责更新首楼的翻译信息表,并履行好翻译工作的责任,自己开帖让别人翻译的行为将被谴责及追究。如遇多人开贴,则同“抢扰动”规则,只保留一个帖子。若开帖人无时间组织,可委托管理团队组织。
第四条 翻译的模式有两种,分别为全部翻译、要点翻译。实践中,不建议连续全文翻译,可针对预报理由变动进行要点总结。
第五条 内容发布时,报文原文、中文翻译必须齐全。
第六条 开贴加分:开帖人翻译一篇或以上报文,威望+5;否则削减为威望+2。
第七条 组织加分:开设翻译信息表,贡献值+1;维护翻译信息表至台风结束,根据台风维持时间长短,追加贡献值2点,威望3~8点。
第八条 内容加分:全文翻译,视翻译质量加贡献值6-9点;要点翻译,视翻译质量贡献值2-5点。对单个台风,翻译5~9报者,追加贡献值5点,翻译10报以上者,追加贡献值10点。
第九条 使用翻译机进行翻译的,不予加分。
第十条 台风论坛管理团队对本条例有最终解释权。
[颱風巨爵于2016-09-20 14:00编辑了帖子]
3条评分, 贡献值 +15 威望 +5
  • 颱風巨爵
    贡献值 10
    補翻工程浩大,此為額外鼓勵
    2016-09-20 15:33
  • 颱風巨爵
    贡献值 5
    翻譯7報
    2016-09-16 06:11
  • 颱風巨爵
    威望 5
    支持
    2016-09-14 11:57
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风王2012
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1楼#
发布于:2016-09-13 20:42
16W 预报理由翻译贴 #12 9月11日23時(091112Z)
1L及3-7L均为补翻,已失时效性,仅为维护翻译贴的完整性。
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析
台风16W(莫兰蒂)目前正位于雅浦岛西北偏北方约554海里处,在过去6小时内其以每小时15节的速度向西北偏西方向移动。红外增强云图动画显示继续勾画出一个底层环流中心附近有深对流的正在加强中的台风,其对流也正在加强,这在红外增强云图动画和11日20时20分的METOP-B 89GHZ图像上都清楚地反应了出来。这使我们对当前定位有较高的信心,当前强度评价为45节是基于所有德法机构分析出的T4.5的结果。16W将继续在北边副热带高压脊的影响下向西北偏西方向移动,进入低垂直风切变和流出条件逐步改善的环境。
3. 预报理由
A. 预报理由无明显改变。
B. 在未来的72小时内,16W将继续在北边副热带高压脊的影响下向西北偏西方向移动,数值预报对60-72小时后台风将接近南台湾分歧不大。当前环境将使其继续增强。鉴于高空流出将继续维持,较高的海温,台风16W有可能在接下来的24-48小时中迅速加强,并达到至少125节的峰值强度。
C. 72小时后,与台湾地形的相互作用将大大削弱台风的环流,并破坏台风的结构。除了潜在的不确定性,(目前我们)一般认为其将向西北方向运动,并在一个经过的中纬度短波槽打击出的副高弱点处转北沿着中国大陆海岸线前行。各数值预报均对影响台湾南部分歧不大,与JTWC的预测接近。总体而言,我们对我们的路径预测信心一般,72小时后的转向路径的信心也相对更低。

图片:79_93271_28352f4c644e150.jpg



图片:79_24446_72fca9b57449660.jpg

图片:79_100776_7dc355c737351c5.png


WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (MERANTI)
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 554 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INTENSIFYING TYPHOON WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO INCREASE, AS EVIDENT FROM BOTH EIR
AND A 111220Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75
KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 ACROSS ALL
AGENCIES. TY 16W CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH, IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING
RADIAL OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STR TO THE NORTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A TRACK THAT TAKES TY 16W NEAR SOUTHERN TAIWAN IN 60 TO 72
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THAT UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH AMPLE WARM WATER, RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, WITH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 125 KNOTS REACHED AROUND AND AFTER TAU
48, PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN TAIWAN.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, OROGRAPHIC INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION OF TY 16W, WITH TRACK SHIFTS
LIKELY DUE TO THE DISRUPTION TO THE VORTEX STRUCTURE. ASIDE FROM
POTENTIAL WOBBLES IN THE TRACK, A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST
OF MAINLAND CHINA AS TY 16W MOVES POLEWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
STR INDUCED BY A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK THAT
IMPACTS SOUTHERN TAIWAN, AND THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE BEYOND 72 HOURS GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN
TIMING OF THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.//
NNNN
[风王2012于2016-09-14 22:07编辑了帖子]
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2楼#
发布于:2016-09-13 20:42
16W 預報理由翻譯帖 #14 — 九月十二日十一時(120300Z)
转载自:@颱風巨爵   原地址:http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=75219&fid=23#read_3340044 加分移步原帖

1. 供氣象從業員使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
颱風16W(莫蘭蒂)集結在嘉手納空軍基地之東南偏南約534海里,過去六小時以14節向西北偏西移動。動態多頻衛星圖像以及一幅協調世界時11日22時11分,頻率為910億赫茲的特別微波探測成像儀/探空儀(Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder — SSMIS)圖像,顯示一個快速整合中的低層環流中心及其螺旋雲帶捲入一個闊5海里的針眼之中。故此,我們對現時位置及近期路徑運動的信心十足。高空分析和動態水氣圖像顯示環境有利,垂直風切變低而流出呈接近輻射狀。此外,温暖的海表温度和高海洋熱含量支持現時的急劇增強趨勢(颱風16W於過去24小時從60節增強到現時的115節,上升了55節)。現時強度是基於來自所有機構達T6.0(115節)的德沃夏克強度估值。颱風16W正受紮基於北面的副熱帶高壓脊之駛流引導,向西北偏西移動。

3. 預報理由
A. 預報基礎對比上次沒有改變。
B. 未來72小時,颱風16W會在深厚副熱帶高壓脊的駛流引導下,大致朝西北偏西移動。此脊在近期的500毫巴分析天氣圖上呈現為一廣闊、強盛的副熱帶高壓脊向西伸延,從一北緯32度,東經158度的高壓中心直抵臺灣,而一大型短波槽正南探入中國東部和東南部。持續模式預報就未來48小時的狀況共識一般,終點處運算分歧達120海里。其後,各路徑模式對臺灣附近的確切路徑分歧擴大,不確定性甚高。預測颱風16W將繼續急劇增強,於未來36小時前達到135節的強度巔峰。其後,系統將在靠近臺灣時減弱,於山地以南掠過。

C. 72小時後,持續模式預報分道揚鑣,呈現兩大派系。第一派的模式(UKMET, ECMWF, GFDN 和 NAVGEM)仍然頗為不規則,並已從轉向改回更為偏西的路徑,進入中國東南部。就現有模式領域的分析揭示這些模式引領系統進入上述的大槽當中,而非如第二派所指出趨向北面的副高弱點。目前而言,此情景被判定為較不可能或錯誤,因此聯合颱風警報中心的預測傾向支持第二派模式(GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, HWRF, JGSM ENSEMBLE 和 COAMPS-TC)預示的轉向情況。預測颱風16W會在約48小時後於臺灣東南沿岸登陸,並顯著減弱。系統橫過中國東部時會進一步減弱。由於48小時後各模式展現龐大分歧,聯合颱風警報中心的路徑預測信心低迷。

(香港/ 北京時間為協調世界時加八小時)

图片:79_54563_2ead1a0d0023d9b.gif

图片:20160911.2211.f18.x.91h_1deg.16WMERANTI.100kts-960mb-176N-1317E.96pc.jpg

图片:up50_2016091200.png

图片:5fe5f525gw1f7qmt889gvj21e01e0k1y.jpg


(fxhopexi)

WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 16W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 534 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 112211 SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPIRAL BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE. THEREFORE, THERE IS EXCELLENT
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES SUPPORT
THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND (TY 16W HAS INTENSIFIED 55
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 60 TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TY 16W IS TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TY 16W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). THIS STR IS DEPICTED IN THE RECENT 500MB ANALYSES AS A BROAD,
STRONG STR EXTENDING WESTWARD, FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N 158E,  
TO TAIWAN WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A 120-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. AFTER
TAU 48, THE MODEL TRACKERS DIVERGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT TRACK NEAR TAIWAN. TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN AND
TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF ITS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH TWO
DISTINCT CLUSTERS. THE FIRST CLUSTER OF MODELS (UKMET, ECMWF, GFDN
AND NAVGEM) HAVE REMAINED QUITE ERRATIC AND HAVE NOW SHIFTED FROM A
RE-CURVE TRACK BACK TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA.
ANALYSIS OF AVAILABLE MODEL FIELDS INDICATES THAT THESE MODELS ARE
DRIVING THE SYSTEM INTO THE MAJOR TROUGH RATHER THAN TRACKING IT
POLEWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR AS THE SECOND CLUSTER
DEPICTS. THIS SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS UNLIKELY /
ERRONEOUS, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO
AS DEPICTED BY THE SECOND CLUSTER OF MODELS (GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE,
HWRF, JGSM ENSEMBLE AND COAMPS-TC). TY 16W IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN NEAR TAU 48 AND WILL
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT TRACKS
OVER EASTERN CHINA. DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD BEYOND 48 HOURS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

當前 JTWC 仍然傾向較東路徑並支持轉向,屬各大氣象機構預測中最東的取向,而 JMA 和 HKO 則是最西,預測趨向汕頭一帶。報文中解釋美方決定不採納西進模式的方案,是由於「這些模式引領系統進入上述的大槽當中,而非如第二派所指出趨向北面的副高弱點」。然而現時情況是副高勢力較先前預測強盛,如兩日前 GFS 00Z 預測今日上午八時副高5880線到廣西,實際已達雲南,南海東北部500百帕高空位勢米更接近5910。此外,位處東邊的熱帶氣旋18W近日快速發展,其環流有助抵制副高從低緯西伸,為莫蘭蒂減少北向量。再者系統本身就已經較預期更快增強,颱風受更高層面、更強盛的偏東氣流引導高速西移,在副高終於受大槽打擊東退前進入南海。故此 JTWC 的預測路徑於稍後仍會繼續西調,貼合其他機構的預測。
[颱風巨爵于2016-09-19 21:18编辑了帖子]
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风王2012
资深会员-热带辐合带
资深会员-热带辐合带
  • 注册日期2013-11-09
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3楼#
发布于:2016-09-13 20:42
16W 预报理由翻译贴 #16 9月12日23時(091212Z)
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析
超级台风16W(莫兰蒂),目前正位于嘉手纳空军基地以南约457海里,在过去6小时内以每小时12节的速度向西北偏西方向移动。红外卫星增强动画图像表明台风从14时开始显著加强,云顶温度迅速下降,风眼附近的深对流变得更加匀称。风眼温度也明显上升,我们估测眼温已经超过18℃。12日21时前后的AMSU-B 89 ghz微波图像显示许多的深对流组成螺旋雨带包围着台风眼。撰写本文时台风环流的对称性还在进一步上升。PGTW和RJTD的德法强度分析都上升到T7.5。鉴于以上分析,我们将当前强度定为155节。台风16W目前处于一个非常有利的环境,这包括所有象限的流出通道都已经打开,十分低的垂直风切变(小于5-10节)和较高的海温(30-31摄氏度),这足以使台风维持其高强度。通过12日17时30分前后的WINDSAT图像可以看出台风16W的风力半径正在调整,16W将继续在北边副热带高压脊的引导下继续向西北偏西方向移动。
3. 预报理由
A. 预报理由无明显改变。
B. 在未来的72小时内,16W将继续在北边副热带高压脊的影响下向西北偏西方向移动,大多数的模型指导已经选定了登陆台湾南部或者横过南吕宋海峡的路径。唯一例外的是JGSM,EGRR和JENS,他们都选定了一个更偏南的预测路径。鉴于最近台风向西北运动,JTWC更认同较偏北的预测路径。由于台风可能与台湾中央山脉互相作用,强度的预报将取决于这一变化。台风16W可能已经接近热力学最大潜在的强度,由于即将进入眼壁置换周期,我们预测接下来24小时内其将维持短期强度波动。24小时后开始由于台湾陆地作用和海温的降低而缓慢减弱。
C. 72小时后,各数值预报均认为台风16W将穿过台湾海峡并有所减弱,并在60小时后在中国作再次登陆。台风将由于陆地作用而迅速减弱,并由于副高弱点的出现而转向向北。鉴于预报争议不大的时段不超过48小时,我们对我们的预报信心较低。

图片:79_93271_b8a1a9aa759279a.gif

图片:79_48078_614966b18b7b733.png

图片:79_48078_45bf8179ff1c35d.png


WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 457 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
INDICATED CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION SINCE 120600Z, WITH CLOUD
TOPS CONTINUING TO COOL AND THE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE WELL-
DEFINED EYE BECOMING EVEN MORE SYMMETRIC. EYE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO
WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH THERMOMETRIC ESTIMATES OF OVER 18C IN THE
CENTER OF THE EYE. A 121247Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED EYE. CONVECTIVE SYMMETRY AND BANDING CONTINUES
TO IMPROVE AS OF THIS WRITING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH
PGTW AND RJTD HAVE RISEN TO T7.5. GIVEN THE ABOVE ANALYSIS, THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 155 KNOTS. STY 16W IS CURRENTLY IN
AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF AN INTENSE
SUPER TYPHOON, WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS, VERY
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 5 TO 10 KNOTS), AND WARM SSTS (30
TO 31C). CURRENT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON A 120928
WINDSAT PASS. STY 16W CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 16W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOW SETTLED ON A TRACK THAT TAKES THE SYSTEM
TOWARD SOUTHERN TAIWAN OR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LUZON
STRAIT. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE THE EGRR, JGSM, AND JENS TRACKERS,
WHICH INDICATE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST
PREFERS THE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION, GIVEN THE RECENT MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. BEYOND TAU 36, TRACK SHIFTS DUE TO VORTEX
INTERACTION WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF TAIWAN ARE POSSIBLE,
AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON THESE TRACK SHIFTS. STY
16W IS LIKELY APPROACHING IS THERMODYNAMIC MAXIMUM POTENTIAL
INTENSITY, SO SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DRIVEN PREDOMINANTLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES. A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 24 AS SSTS BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY COOL AND LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN COMMENCES.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STY 16W WILL
CROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS A WEAKER SYSTEM AND MAKE A SECOND
LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND CHINA BY AROUND TAU 60. WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER, WITH A POLEWARD TURN
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD BEYOND
48 HOURS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BEYOND
THAT TIME.//
NNNN

P.S.写完第一次后论坛卡掉崩溃了 不得不再写一次 哭
[风王2012于2016-09-14 20:37编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2016-09-13 20:43
16W 预报理由翻译贴 #17 9月13日05時(091218Z)
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析
超级台风16W(莫兰蒂),目前正位于日本冲绳的嘉手纳空军基地以南约436海里,在过去6小时内以每小时16节的速度向西北偏西方向移动。红外卫星增强动画图像勾画出一个拥有由深对流包围着的约8海里的台风眼的令人印象深刻的台风,这也使我们对当前定位有着很高的信心。在日际变化的影响下台风的云顶温度略有回暖。13日2时26分的AMSU微波图像显示许多的深对流组成螺旋雨带包围着清楚可见的台风眼。基于PGTW和RJTD分析出T7.5,我们认为其台风16W仍然维持着155节的强度。水汽图显示台风16W得益于其上方的反气旋而出现了放射状流出, 垂直风切变也低至5-10节。30℃以上的高海温和较高的海洋潜热也有利于其加强。16W将继续在北边副热带高压脊的引导下继续向西北偏西方向移动。
3. 预报理由
A. 预报理由无明显改变,但预测路径已经南调到台湾海峡。
B. 在未来的72小时内,16W将继续在北边副热带高压脊的影响下向西北偏西方向移动。非常有利的环境可能使它在接下来的12-24小时内继续加强。之后,其与台湾的相互作用和加大的垂直风切变将使它开始有所减弱。48小时后,台风16W将会以很强的强度在中国海岸登陆。数值预报系统预报出了两种情形,但都认为台风将进入南台湾海峡。第一种情形是在台湾南部登陆,第二种是(通过巴士海峡)进入台湾海峡。
C. 在延伸预报期内,台风16W将由于与陆地的相互作用和中纬度西风带造成的风切增大而完全消散。在延伸预报期内,数值系统分歧颇大。垂直风切变预计将超过30节。尽管当前的预测已经向南调整,接近多个模型达成的共识,我们对我们的预报信心仍然较低。

图片:79_93271_8432d93a533b9ec.gif

图片:79_52656_b1a7f5d75300670.png

图片:20160912_1826_noaa19_x_color_89_150_16WMERANTI_155kts-904mb-193N-1267E_99pc.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 16W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 436 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE WITH A DEEP
CONVECTIVE CORE SURROUNDING A SHARP 8NM EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM RESPONDS TO DIURNAL
PHASES. A 121826Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED EYE. STY 16W REMAINS AT 155
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.5 (155
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RADIAL OUTFLOW
DUE TO A POINT SOURCE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM WITH
LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. STY 16W CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE; HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 16W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS,
LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN AND INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN THE
WEAKENING PHASE. STY MERANTI WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
CHINA JUST AFTER TAU 48 AS A STRONG TYPHOON. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THE SYSTEM BUT OVERALL CONTINUE TO
WALK THE TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE FIRST SCENARIO
SHOWS LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN WITH THE SECOND
SCENARIO IS SHOWING A TRACK OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, STY 16W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING OVER
LAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASED VWS
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE ZONAL MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST DIVERGES GREATLY DUE TO THE RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. VWS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 30
KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
[风王2012于2016-09-14 20:37编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2016-09-13 20:43
16W 预报理由翻译贴 #18 9月13日11時(091300Z)
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析
超级台风16W(莫兰蒂),目前正位于台湾台北的东南方约398海里处,在过去6小时内以每小时12节的速度向西北偏西方向移动。多光谱卫星动画图像显示台风的云顶温度进一步下降至另一个色阶,在风暴的中心有一个清晰的8海里的台风眼。这为我们当前的定位提供了很高的信心。初始强度定为160节是基于云顶温度的下降,而最终强度定为165节则是基于SATCON强度计算支持其进一步增强。PGTW和RJTD的德法分析保持在155节(T7.5)。水汽图显示台风16W得益于其上方的反气旋而出现了放射状流出, 垂直风切变也低至5-10节。30℃以上的高海温和较高的海洋潜热也有利于其加强。16W将继续在北边副热带高压脊的引导下继续向西北偏西方向移动。
3. 预报理由
A. 预报理由无明显改变
B. 在未来的72小时内,16W将继续在北边副热带高压脊的影响下向西北偏西方向移动。非常有利的环境可能使它在接下来的12小时内继续加强。之后,其与台湾的相互作用和加大的垂直风切变将使它开始有所减弱。48小时后,台风16W将会以很强的强度在中国海岸登陆。各数值预报系统就台风将掠过台湾南部达成了共识,仅有NAVGEM认为其将经过台湾南部。
C. 在延伸预报期内,台风16W将由于与陆地的相互作用和中纬度西风带造成的风切增大而完全消散。在延伸预报期内,由于台风的迅速减弱,数值系统分歧颇大。垂直风切变预计将超过30节。鉴于多个模型就台风登陆前的路径打成了共识,且稳定维持超过两个周期,我们当前的路径预测有较高的信心。

图片:79_93271_8432d93a533b9ec.gif

图片:79_91849_e8c423e829aec3b.jpg

图片:201616W_wind_ssmis.gif



SATCON强度计算

图片:79_91849_6274c7c1fffc427.gif


WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 16W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER PHASE OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS DEPICTING
STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE SURROUNDING A DISTINCT
8NM EYE. THE EYE FEATURE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 160 KNOTS
BASED ON THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND IS SUPPORTED BY A CONTINUOUS
INCREASE IN SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH NOW STAND AT 164 KNOTS.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD REMAIN AT 155
KNOTS (T7.5). THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RADIAL OUTFLOW DUE TO A
POINT SOURCE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM WITH LOW (5-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30
CELSIUS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE. STY 16W
CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
  A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
  B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 16W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE INTENSE CYCLONE TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, LAND
INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN AND INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING
PHASE. STY MERANTI WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA JUST
NEAR TAU 48 AS A STRONG TYPHOON. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK THAT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF
TAIWAN. AT THIS TIME ONLY NAVGEM CLIPS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN.
  C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, STY 16W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING OVER
LAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASED VWS
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE ZONAL MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST DIVERGES GREATLY DUE TO THE RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. VWS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 30
KNOTS AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT PRIOR TO
LANDFALL AND THE STABILITY OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE
PAST TWO CYCLES, THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
[风王2012于2016-09-14 20:38编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2016-09-14 21:06
16W 预报理由翻译贴 #20 9月13日23時(091312Z)
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析
超级台风16W(莫兰蒂),目前正位于台湾台北的东南方约284海里处,在过去6小时内以每小时14节的速度向偏西方向移动。红外增强卫星图像动画显示系统保留着超强对流和极其深邃的15海里的台风眼。我们对当前的定位有着较高的信心,是基于从台湾中央气象局得到的雷达图像动画和13日19时前后的37GHZ微波底层扫描图像。我们将当前强度定为160节是基于所有德法机构的客观评价。上层环流分析表明台风正位于副热带高压脊以南的东风带中,有着较低的垂直风切变,优秀的径向流出得益于系统上方的反气旋而维持。30℃以上的高海温和较高的海洋潜热也有利于其加强。16W将继续在北边副热带高压脊的引导下继续向西北偏西方向移动。
3. 预报理由
A. 预报理由无明显改变。
B. 超强台风16W将继续在副热带高压脊的影响下向西北偏西方向移动。正在上升的风切和其擦过台湾南部时与陆地的相互作用将导致其缓慢减弱。在未来36小时前不久,台风将在中国再次登陆,登陆地接近汕头。崎岖的地形和逐渐增加的风切将会快速侵蚀系统,驱使其在陆地上彻底消散。各数值预报系统对此已经达成共识,我们对台风登陆前的路径抱有很高的信心,后期由于与陆地的作用,路径的不确定性很大。

图片:79_54563_369608fefe9e3e7.gif

图片:79_86846_fce3bb5aa204df6.gif

图片:79_87117_a7800a75bbc877a.jpg

图片:20160913_1054_f18_x_colorpct_91h_91v_1deg_16WMERANTI_160kts-898mb-202N-1242E_56p


图片:s3p-2016-09-13-23-00.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI) WARNING NR
20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 16W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC ULTRA-DEEP
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 15-NM EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
RADAR LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU THAT LINES UP WELL
WITH A LOW REFLECTIVITY EYE FEATURE IN THE 131054Z 37GHZ MICROWAVE
SATELLITE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 160 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW SUSTAINED BY A POINT SOURCE ANTI-CYCLONE
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 30 CELSIUS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE. STY 16W IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 16W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT ITS
LIFE SPAN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. INCREASING VWS AND
LAND INTERACTION, AS IT BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN, WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 36, STY MERANTI WILL
MAKE LANDFALL IN CHINA NEAR SHANTOU. THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASED
VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, DISSIPATING IT AS A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO
LANDFALL IN CHINA WHERE TRACK VARIABILITY IS HIGH DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION.//
NNNN
[风王2012于2016-09-14 23:41编辑了帖子]
我们相识在冬季。
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风王2012
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发布于:2016-09-14 21:51
16W 预报理由翻译贴 #22 9月14日11時(091400Z)
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析
超强台风16W(莫兰蒂),目前正位于台湾台北的西南方约215海里处,在过去6小时内以每小时13节的速度向偏西北方向移动。多光谱卫星动画图像显示台风在接近台湾时向北有所偏移。台风与台湾南端相互作用导致风眼填塞,现在已经开始重新清空。台风北部的深对流正被推向台湾中部。14日7时30分前后的SSMIS 91GHZ微波图像显示宽厚的深对流从中心向南延伸了100海里。微波图像同时还显示台风正位于眼壁置换周期中,然而外部的对流由于与陆地的相互作用而被打乱。当前定位是基于台湾的雷达资料和云图上的台风眼,我们对此信心颇高。当前强度已经由于其与南台湾的相互作用而有所减弱,各德法分析机构分析出T7.5(155节)。较低的垂直风切变和较高的海温,强大的径向流出对其加强非常有利,但与南台湾的相互作用和眼壁置换带来的不利影响抵消了这一有利条件。16W将在北边副热带高压脊的引导下逐步转向偏北方向移动。
3. 预报理由
A. 预报理由无明显改变。
B. 超强台风16W预计将在副热带高压脊的引导下向西北方向移动,然而处于眼壁置换周期的风眼将会左右台风的路径。崎岖的地形和逐渐增加的风切将会快速侵蚀系统,驱使其在陆地上彻底消散。各数值预报系统对此已经达成共识,我们对台风登陆前的路径抱有很高的信心,后期由于与陆地的作用,路径的不确定性很大。

图片:79_54563_2b1e17e9ad29062.gif

图片:20160913_2326_f18_x_91h_1deg_16WMERANTI_155kts-900mb-216N-1207E_70pc.jpg

图片:sbo-2016-09-14-11-00.jpg



WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI) WARNING NR
22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 16W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTED A NORTHWARD WOBBLE IN THE STORM MOTION AS THE
CYCLONE APPROACHED TAIWAN. INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
TAIWAN CREATED A TEMPORARY CLOUD FILLED EYE WHICH HAS SINCE STARTED
CLEARING. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM IS PUSHING ONSHORE NEAR CENTRAL TAIWAN. A 132327Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS BROAD DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING 100NM TO THE SOUTH OF
THE EYE. THE SSMIS IMAGE ALSO CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE; HOWEVER, THE OUTER CONVECTIVE RING HAS BEEN
DISRUPTED BY LAND INTERACTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EYE FEATURE IN SATELLITE AND THE TAIWAN RADAR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH
SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT INTENSITY FIXES OF T7.5
(155 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. STY 16W MAINTAINS A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE LAND
INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN AND THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL
OFFSET THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. STY 16W IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS OVERALL NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
STR; HOWEVER, EXPECT CONTINUED TROCHOIDAL EYE MOTION WHICH WILL
CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE STORM TRACK. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
INCREASING VWS, LAND INTERACTION, AND THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
WILL ALL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES CHINA. JUST
BEFORE TAU 24, STY MERANTI WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN CHINA AS A STRONG
TYPHOON. THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASED VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM, DISSIPATING IT AS A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 48.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO LANDFALL IN CHINA WHERE
TRACK VARIABILITY IS HIGH DUE TO THE FORECASTED RAPID DISSIPATION.//
NNNN
[风王2012于2016-09-14 23:24编辑了帖子]
我们相识在冬季。
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发布于:2016-09-14 23:37
16W 预报理由翻译贴 #24 9月14日23時(091412Z)
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析
超级台风16W(莫兰蒂),目前正位于台湾台北的西南偏西方约176海里处,在过去6小时内以每小时12节的速度向偏西北方向移动。红外增强卫星图像动画显示系統已經開始减弱,中心附近的深对流土崩瓦解。我们对当前定位有较高的信心是基于从台湾中央气象局得到的雷达图像。当前强度定为125节是基于德法机构T5.9~T6.5的德法分析结果。上层环流分析表明台风所在海域风切为中等至强劲(20-25节)。台风16W正受其东北方的副热带高压引导(向西北方向前进)。
3. 预报理由
A. 预报理由无明显改变。
B. 超强台风16W预计将在副热带高压脊的引导下向西北方向移动。当接近中国东部时,陆地作用和逐渐增加的风切,将逐渐使系统减弱。在接下来的几个小时里,台风莫兰蒂将在广东汕头附近登陆。崎岖的地形和逐渐增加的风切将会快速侵蚀系统,驱使其在陆地上彻底消散。各数值预报系统对此已经达成共识,我们对台风登陆前的路径抱有很高的信心,后期由于与陆地的作用,路径的不确定性颇大。

图片:79_90507_da88ffdf560cc95.gif

图片:s3p-2016-09-14-23-00.jpg

图片:FJ201609142300.png

图片:up50_2016091412.png

图片:wgmswxc.GIF


WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 16W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
COLLAPSED AND UNRAVELED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON A COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN
CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS BASED
ON AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.9 TO T6.5.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CYCLONE IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 16W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE
SPAN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. INCREASING VWS AND
LAND INTERACTION, AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CHINA, WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, TY MERANTI WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN
CHINA NEAR SHANTOU. THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND STRONG VWS (GREATER THAN
30 KNOTS) WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, DISSIPATING IT AS A
SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST UP TO LANDFALL IN CHINA WHERE TRACK VARIABILITY IS HIGH DUE
TO THE LAND INTERACTION AND RAPID DISSIPATION.//
NNNN

P.S. 并不知道JTWC是怎么瞎了眼看出来登陆汕头的。。。。。
2条评分, 金钱 0.0 贡献值 +8
  • 颱風巨爵
    金钱 0.0
    注意「节」是速率单位,相等于每小时1海里,故无「每小时x节」之说
    2016-09-16 06:09
  • 颱風巨爵
    贡献值 8
    優秀帖
    2016-09-16 06:06
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