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[WP]1614号热带气旋“莫兰蒂”(16W.Meranti)机构发报专帖

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更多 发布于:2016-09-09 15:01

图片:wp982016.16090818.gif


 
WTPN21 PGTW 080530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 143.4E TO 17.5N 137.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 142.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 143.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 142.9E, APPROXIMATELY
100 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 072121Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT
DEFINED CENTER. A 072340Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 5-10 KNOT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TUTT CELL
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST IS HAVING LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE SYSTEM
WITH MOISTURE NOW EXPENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT
OVER THEN NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090530Z.//
NNNN
[9914dan于2016-11-14 22:06编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2016-09-09 15:03
1614号热带气旋“莫兰蒂”机构发报指引
9月8日:
JTWC   TCFA   18Z--Prognostic Reasoning          

9月9日:
JMA    18   21                                                            
JTWC   00Z--Prognostic Reasoning  06Z--Prognostic Reasoning                          
           12Z--Prognostic Reasoning    18Z--Prognostic Reasoning          
 
9月10日:
JMA    00   03   06(命名)   09   12   15   18   21                                
CMA    06   12   18   21          
          台风预报(17:00)              
KMA    06   12   18                        
CWB   06   12   18                                      
HKO    06   12              
JTWC   00Z--Prognostic Reasoning   06Z--Prognostic Reasoning                          
           12Z--Prognostic Reasoning    18Z--Prognostic Reasoning

9月11日:
JMA      00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21                                
CMA     00   06   12   18   21        
           台风预报(06:00)   台风预报(10:00)   台风预报(18:00)              
KMA     00   06   12   18                        
CWB    00   06   12   18                
HKO    00   12                    
JTWC   00Z--Prognostic Reasoning   06Z--Prognostic Reasoning                          
           12Z--Prognostic Reasoning    18Z--Prognostic Reasoning

9月12日:
JMA      00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21                                
CMA     00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21        
           台风预报(06:00)   台风预报(10:00)   台风预报(18:00)              
KMA     00   06   12   18                        
CWB    00   06   12   15   18   21    
          海上台风警报   23:30            
HKO    00   06   12   18                    
JTWC   00Z--Prognostic Reasoning   06Z--Prognostic Reasoning                          
           12Z--Prognostic Reasoning    18Z--Prognostic Reasoning

9月13日:
JMA      00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21                                
CMA     00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21                        
           台风黄色预警(06:25)   台风橙色预警(10:00)   台风橙色预警(18:00)              
KMA     00   06   12   18                        
CWB    00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21    
           海上台风警报   02:30   05:30   海上陆上台风警报   08:30   11:30   14:30   17:30   20:30   23:30                            
HKO    00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21                                              
JTWC   00Z--Prognostic Reasoning   06Z--Prognostic Reasoning                          
           12Z--Prognostic Reasoning    18Z--Prognostic Reasoning

9月14日:
JMA      00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21                                
CMA     00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21              
           台风红色预警(06:00)   台风红色预警(10:00)   台风红色预警(18:02)              
KMA     00   06   12   18                        
CWB    00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21              
           海上陆上台风警报   02:30   05:30   08:30   11:30   14:30   17:30   20:30   23:30                    
HKO    00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21                                          
JTWC   00Z--Prognostic Reasoning   06Z--Prognostic Reasoning                          
           12Z--Prognostic Reasoning   18Z(Final Warning)--Prognostic Reasoning              

9月15日:
JMA      00   03   06   09   12(降格TD)                                  
CMA     00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21              
           台风登陆消息(03:20)   台风红色预警(06:02)   台风黄色预警(10:00)   解除台风预警(18:00)              
KMA     00   06(降格TD)                        
CWB    00   03   06                  
           海上陆上台风警报   02:30   05:30   08:30   解除台风警报   11:30                    
HKO    00   03   06   12   18(降格低压区)                                            

9月16日:
CMA     00   03   06   09   12   15   18(停编)          
            台风预报(06:00)   台风预报(10:00)   台风预报(18:00)              

     
[9914dan于2016-10-18 13:53编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2016-09-09 15:08
JTWC/16W/#01/09-08 18Z

图片:wp162016.16090806.gif


 
WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080521ZSEP2016//
APMN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 142.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 142.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 14.4N 141.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 15.0N 140.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 15.9N 139.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 16.9N 137.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 18.9N 133.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 21.1N 129.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 23.8N 125.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 142.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM WEST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 080530).//
NNNN
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发布于:2016-09-09 15:10
JTWC/16W/#01/09-08 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158
NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, CONVECTION
SLOWLY ORGANIZING AROUND A WEAK AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ON REFLECTIVITY
AND VELOCITY LOOPS FROM THE NWS GUAM RADAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH OF TWO RIDGE AXES IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW
THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THESE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS GREATER THAN 28C), ARE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE. THE
CYCLONE IS VERY SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SHALLOW LAYER OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM. .
   B. TD 16W WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR
TERM. AFTER TAU 36 AND AFTER THE SYSTEM REACHES TS INTENSITY, A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EAST OF JAPAN WILL ASSUME STEERING
AND ACCELERATE THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE SLOW DUE TO THE SUBSIDENT EFFECT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TUTT CELL. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL REACH 55 KNOTS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 16W WILL REMAIN UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND INITIALLY DRIFT IN AN AREA OF INCREASED VWS
(20-25 KNOTS), ONCE AGAIN TEMPERING THE INTENSIFICATION RATE DESPITE
THE DIMINISHED EFFECT OF THE TUTT CELL. HOWEVER, NEAR TAU 96, TD 16W
IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS VWS RELAXES, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INCREASES, AND THE CYCLONE DRIFTS INTO EVEN WARMER SSTS
(GREATER THAN 30C). THE SYSTEM WILL BE A VERY STRONG TYPHOON AT 110
KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. THE INITIAL SET OF DYNAMIC AIDS ARE SPREAD
AND FAN OUT AT APPROXIMATELY 20 DEGREES BUT MEMBERS ARE IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UP TO THE END OF FORECAST. IN
VIEW OF THE SLOW INITIAL STORM MOTION AND THE VARIABILITY OF AN
INITIAL FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC WARNING TRACK.//
NNNN
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发布于:2016-09-09 15:14
JTWC/16W/#02/09-09 00Z

图片:wp1616 20160909 0000Z.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002A RELOCATED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 142.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 142.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 13.7N 141.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 14.2N 140.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 15.0N 138.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 16.0N 137.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 17.9N 133.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 20.0N 129.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 22.4N 126.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 142.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
//
NNNN
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发布于:2016-09-09 15:15
JTWC/16W/#02/09-09 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
IS LOOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT TRIES TO CONSOLIDATE. A GROUPING
OF RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES PROVIDES BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE 0900Z
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT POOR
ORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR), LEADING TO THE ERRATIC MOTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW (05-10
KNOTS), HOWEVER, THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. AS THE STR REBUILDS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, TD 16W WILL
RETURN TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS STEERING MECHANISM IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW IN THE SHORT TERM, AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND
MOVES AWAY FROM THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE TUTT CELL, AFTER WHICH,
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK SOLUTION ONCE THE STEERING
FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES, WITH THE GFS SERVING AS A NOTABLE OUTLIER GIVEN
THAT MODEL NEVER DEVELOPS BEYOND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SURFACE FIELDS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 16W WILL REMAIN UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BEYOND TAU 72, VWS AND OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SSTS WILL INCREASE, LEADING TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMICAL AID SPREAD IS
HIGHER IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION UNCERTAINTY
AND LONG TERM MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
WARNING TRACK.//
NNNN
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发布于:2016-09-09 16:34
JTWC/16W/#03/09-09 06Z

图片:wp162016.20160909075510.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z --- NEAR 14.0N 142.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 142.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 14.6N 141.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 15.5N 139.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 16.5N 137.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 17.6N 135.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 19.6N 131.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 22.2N 127.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 25.2N 125.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 142.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141 NM
WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z,
100300Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN
[t02436于2016-09-09 16:39编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2016-09-09 16:39
JTWC/16W/#03/09-09 06Z Prognostic Reasoning

WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141
NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK OVER THE CENTER. A
090235Z AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE GUAM RADAR LOOP SHOW A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, THE AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BROKEN
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM ALL QUADRANTS WITH THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED BASED ON THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE
LLCC AND BANDING SEEN IN THE MICROWAVE AND RADAR IMAGERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW,
AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) WHICH HAS LED TO QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE PAST 12-18
HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. AS THE STR REBUILDS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS, TD 16W WILL RETURN
TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS STEERING MECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, INCREASED VWS DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL STR POSITIONED
OVER CHINA WILL TEMPER THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48,
THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN, DECREASING THE VWS ONCE AGAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST,
WITH ONLY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE NEAR-TERM DUE TO THE RECENT
ERRATIC STORM MOTION.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 16W WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND BY TAU 120, WILL REACH THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TURN POLEWARD. BEYOND TAU 72,
IMPROVED VWS AND OUTFLOW, COMBINED WITH INCREASED SSTS AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT, WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED INTENSIFICATION RATE WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A
200NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. THE ONLY OUTLIER OF THE GROUP IS HWRF WHICH
TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO TAIWAN. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW) THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN RIGHT OF
CONW FAVORING ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOW A RECURVE
SCENARIO. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE RECENT ERRATIC STORM MOTION THERE IS
AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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发布于:2016-09-09 22:48
JTWC/16W/#04/09-09 12Z

图片:wp1616.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 142.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 142.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 15.4N 140.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 16.3N 138.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 17.1N 137.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 18.1N 135.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 20.2N 130.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 22.4N 127.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 25.4N 125.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 141.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z,
100900Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN
[9914dan于2016-09-09 22:49编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2016-09-09 22:49
JTWC/16W/#04/09-09 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTION BUILDING JUST SOUTH
OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 091301Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH INTO A
DEFINED LLCC WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON
AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30
KNOTS AND IS SUPPORTED BY A PARTIAL 091121Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST; HOWEVER,
THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VWS, WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING LOW LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 16W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE BUILDING
STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, INCREASED VWS DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL STR POSITIONED
OVER CHINA WILL TEMPER THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48,
THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN, DECREASING THE VWS ONCE AGAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, WITH ONLY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 16W WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND BY TAU 120, WILL REACH THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TURN POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK
IN THE STEERING RIDGE. BEYOND TAU 72, IMPROVED VWS AND OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST,
COMBINED WITH INCREASED SSTS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASED INTENSIFICATION RATE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH AN 125NM SPREAD AT TAU
120. HWRF CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY OUTLIER OF THE GROUP WITH A TRACK
INTO TAIWAN. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS (CONW) THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN RIGHT OF CONW FAVORING ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOW A RECURVE SCENARIO. DUE TO IMPROVING
MODEL TRACKERS WITH A SMALL SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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  • wusifeng
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    2016-09-10 21:13
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