颱風巨爵
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[报文翻译][2016] 1603号热带气旋“银河”(05W.Mirinae) JTWC预报理由翻译帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2016-07-25 18:57
银河:

图片:latestNWP.png



翻译信息表:
                                                                                                               
报数
                                                                                                               
时间
                                                                                                               
翻译情况
                                                                                                               
翻译者
                                                                                                               
楼层
                                                                                                               
#TCFA
                                                                                                               
0725-0900Z
                                                                                                               
全文翻译
                                                                                                               
颱風巨爵
                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                             
#1
                                                                                                                             
0725-1500Z
                                                                                                                             
全文翻译
                                                                                                                             
颱風巨爵
                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                             
#2
                                                                                                                             
0725-2100Z
                                                                                                                             
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#3
                                                                                                                             
0726-0300Z
                                                                                                                             
全文翻译
                                                                                                                             
颱風巨爵
                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                             
#4
                                                                                                                             
0726-0900Z
                                                                                                                             
全文翻译
                                                                                                                             
颱風巨爵
                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                             
#5
                                                                                                                             
0726-1500Z
                                                                                                                             
全文翻译
                                                                                                                             
颱風巨爵
                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                             
#6
                                                                                                                             
0726-2100Z
                                                                                                                             
-
                                                                                                                             
-
                                                                                                                             
-
                                                                                                                             
#7
                                                                                                                             
0727-0300Z
                                                                                                                             
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tyfans
                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                             
#8 - #9 (FW)
                                                                                                                             
0727-0900Z
0727-1500Z
                                                                                                                             
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说明:
1、由于该热带系统未来发展态势良好,且可能影响我国南部沿海,所以特开此贴。
2、本贴翻译JTWC报文,时间以协调世界時的作准。
3、翻译前为防止重复翻译原则上需要预约,可以直接回帖预约或发私信至开帖人预约。
4、为信息展示需要,请将报文原文和译文放置于同一楼层。若回帖预约的,请将翻译放在预约帖。
5、有时间的童鞋建议全文翻译,我们也鼓励抓要点进行简单翻译,简单翻译的要点:
发报时定位,过去的移动速度、结构、强度、环境场,未来的强度、路径、环境场,数值的预测。
6、本帖不允许发与翻译和预约不相符的内容,否则将被视为灌水删帖处理。
7、翻译中若若有其他任何疑惑,欢迎加入翻译小组QQ群152955236加入我们的讨论。
  
组织规则:
第一条 预报理由翻译贴是对JTWC Reasoning文件进行翻译的专贴。由于气旋的Reasoning文件翻译量不定,因此需要一定的人事组织,参与组织或翻译的会员将获得一定程度的奖励。
第二条 任何会员都可对任何JTWC升格的系统开贴,但原则上建议只对我国有影响的系统开帖。对不影响我国的系统,不建议单独开贴,翻译者可在追击贴或深度贴内进行,版主将按第八条之标准酌情加分。
第三条 开帖人默认为组织人,负责更新首楼的翻译信息表,并履行好翻译工作的责任,自己开帖让别人翻译的行为将被谴责及追究。如遇多人开贴,则同“抢扰动”规则,只保留一个帖子。若开帖人无时间组织,可委托管理团队组织。
第四条 翻译的模式有两种,分别为全部翻译、要点翻译。实践中,不建议连续全文翻译,可针对预报理由变动进行要点总结。
第五条 内容发布时,报文原文、中文翻译必须齐全。
第六条 开贴加分:开帖人翻译一篇或以上报文,威望+5;否则削减为威望+2。
第七条 组织加分:开设翻译信息表,贡献值+1;维护翻译信息表至台风结束,根据台风维持时间长短,追加贡献值2点,威望3~8点。
第八条 内容加分:全文翻译,视翻译质量加贡献值6-9点;要点翻译,视翻译质量贡献值2-5点。对单个台风,翻译5~9报者,追加贡献值5点,翻译10报以上者,追加贡献值10点。
第九条 使用翻译机进行翻译的,不予加分。
第十条 台风论坛管理团队对本条例有最终解释权。
[颱風巨爵于2016-07-28 09:52编辑了帖子]
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颱風巨爵
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1楼#
发布于:2016-07-25 19:04
95W 預報理由翻譯帖 #TCFA — 七月廿五日十七時(250900Z)
備註/
1. 在未來12至24小時,從北緯16.2度,東經117.0度至北緯19.1度,東經111.9度兩邊各190海里的範圍內可能形成一個明顯的熱帶氣旋。現有數據並不支持發出帶編號的熱帶氣旋警報。此區域內風力估計為17至22節。一幅協調世界時25日04時05分的氣象衛星圖像顯示一個環流中心位於北緯16.6度,東經116.0度附近。此系統正以15節向西移動。

2. 備註:最近的動態多頻衛星圖像,以及一幅協調世界時25日06時46分,頻率為890億赫兹的NOAA-19號衛星微波濕度探空圖像,皆顯示消長中的中央對流和形成中的雲帶開始捲入低層環流中心(LLCC)。此LLCC呈部分外露,東北垂直風切變約10節。流出存在,而海表温度有利發展,達攝氏30度左右。全球性的數值模式預示此LLCC會在未來24小時進一步整合為一弱熱帶氣旋。預測路徑為西北,於未來48至72小時登陸華南。基於低層環流和其持續和整合中的對流特徵,一個明顯的熱帶氣旋於未來24小時內發展的機會頗高。

3.此警報將於協調世界時26日09時00分前被重新發出、升級為熱帶氣旋警報或解除。

(香港/ 北京時間為協調世界時加八小時)

图片:79_89185_43ca8fcbac7fcfc.gif

图片:TCFA satellite.JPG


WTPN21 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 117.0E TO 19.1N 111.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250405Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.6N 116.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND A
250646 MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ INDICATE FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THIS LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH APPROXIMATELY 10
KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW IS
PRESENT AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LLCC WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE INTO A
WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ANTICIPATED TRACK IS
NORTHWESTWARD AND LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA IS ANTICIPATED
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION COUPLED
WITH A PERSISTENT AND CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR FORMATION FOR A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260900Z.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2016-07-26 01:18编辑了帖子]

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  • 9914dan
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    2016-07-28 12:04
颱風若只如初見。
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颱風巨爵
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2楼#
发布于:2016-07-26 01:08
05W 預報理由翻譯帖 #1 — 七月廿五日廿三時(251500Z)
1. 供氣象從業員使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
熱帶低氣壓05W(五)集結在香港以南約314海里,過去六小時以12節向西北偏西移動。
動態色調強化紅外線衛星圖像顯示,一對流消長的區域及其形成中的深厚雲帶正捲入一低層環流中心(LLCC)。初始位置信心良好,並是基於一幅協調世界時25日11時08分,頻率為910億赫兹的特別微波探測成像儀/探空儀(Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder — SSMIS)圖像顯示深厚對流捲入LLCC之內。初始強度定在25節,是基於現時的對流結構和來自所有機構達T1.5(25節)的客觀德沃夏克估值。過去12小時,由於環境條件十分有利,熱帶低氣壓05W的發展非常迅速。海表温度十分温暖,接近攝氏31度,而垂直風切變頗低,在5至10節左右,亦有中等的高空流出。現時熱帶低氣壓05W正沿著北面副熱帶高壓脊的邊緣向西北偏西移動。

3. 預報理由
A. 此乃初始之預報理由,奠定了預報哲理基礎
B. 預期熱帶低氣壓05W會繼續循西北路徑移動,36小時之後因東面作引導的高壓脊略為改變形態而稍轉偏北移動。途經的海表温度將持續十分温暖,而預期未來24小時流出會得到改善。預測熱帶低氣壓05W將於未來24至36小時間登陸海南,並在之前增強至45節的強度巔峰。36小時以後,系統將重新到達北部灣温暖的海面上,然而地形影響將於此前把其顯著削弱。預料屆時會有一短暫重新組織和增強的時期,48小時以後系統將於中國南部再次登陸。預測熱帶低氣壓05W將於72小時內在陸上消散。持續模式預報正對路徑運算結果稍為呈現兩派分歧。NAVGEM及其中尺度相應的GFDN和COAMPS-TC顯示較早的向北轉向,完全避開海南並不現實地衝入作引導的高壓脊中。現時的預測路徑與EC、GFS和GFS的集合結果相近,顯示一持續的西北路徑和較遲的北轉。此等結果就高壓改變形態之後的情況而言較為合理,然而由於預報分歧,預測路徑的信心頗低。

(香港/ 北京時間為協調世界時加八小時)

图片:wp0516.gif

图片:05W_251200sair.jpg

图片:05W EIR.gif


WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH DEEP FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 251108Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE SHOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE
CURRENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES REPORTING T1.5 (25 KNOTS). TD 05W HAS DEVELOPED VERY
QUICKLY IN THE LAST 12 HOURS DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM NEAR 31 CELSIUS,
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW NEAR 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH MODERATE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. CURRENTLY TD 05W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BEYOND TAU 36 AS THE STEERING RIDGE
REORIENTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. SSTS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM ALONG ITS
TRACK AND DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD
05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL OVER HAINAN BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. LAND INTERACTION
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY BEFORE IT RESURFACES OVER THE
WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN BEYOND TAU 36. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
REORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AGAIN OVER SOUTH CHINA AFTER TAU 48. TD 05W
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING SLIGHT BIFURCATION IN THE TRACK SOLUTIONS. NAVGEM AND ITS
MESOSCALE COUNTERPARTS GFDN AND COAMPS-TC SHOW AN EARLIER TURN TO
THE NORTH, MISSING HAINAN COMPLETELY AND UNREALISTICALLY DRIVING
INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR
THE ECMFW, GFS, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWING A STEADY
NORTHWESTERN TRACK AND A LATER TURN TO THE NORTH. THESE SOLUTIONS
ARE MORE REASONABLE FOLLOWING THE REORIENTATION OF THE STEERING
RIDGE, HOWEVER DUE TO THE SPLIT IN GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2016-07-26 06:51编辑了帖子]

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  • 9914dan
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    2016-07-28 12:04
颱風若只如初見。
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发布于:2016-07-26 13:00
05W 預報理由翻譯帖 #3 — 七月廿六日十一時(260300Z)
1. 供氣象從業員使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
熱帶低氣壓05W(五)集結在中國海口之東南約203海里,過去六小時以12節向西北偏西移動。 現時的位置是基於最近來自關島和東京機構的衛星定位,以及一幅協調世界時25日23時43分的特別微波探測成像儀/探空儀(Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder — SSMIS)圖像。30節的強度與來自相同匯報機構的主觀德沃夏克衛星強度估值一致。過去六小時,一道深厚對流於西邊和南邊發展,低層環流稍為整合。系統繼續受到東北垂直風切變影響,導致低層環流的東北象限部分外露。熱帶低氣壓05W繼續沿著北面副熱帶高壓脊的邊緣向西北偏西移動。

3. 預報理由
A. 預報基礎大致維持不變。然而,短期的預測位置基於最近的風暴動態向北稍作調整。
B. 未來數小時,預期熱帶低氣壓05W會在現時高壓脊持續引導下向西北偏西移動,趨向海南島。預期途經的温暖海水和向西的高空流出將容許登陸前的緩慢增強。然而,持續的東北垂直風切變將抑制增強幅度。預期系統將於橫過海南時減弱。24小時以後,當熱帶低氣壓05W進入北部灣時,預測其或能些微重新加強。預期36小時以後將有第二次登陸,72小時內消散。官方的預測基於700毫巴高空現時位於中國東南部脊場的強度和形態,處於預報共識以西,歐中運算結果附近。隨著作引導的高壓脊受一道中緯度西風槽經過影響而減弱,預期系統將於進入內陸時轉向西北移動。由於過去兩次模式預報的表現較為一致,預測路徑的信心頗高。

(香港/ 北京時間為協調世界時加八小時)

图片:wp0516.gif

图片:05W_260000sams.jpg

图片:rgb_lalo-animated.gif


WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 252343Z SSMIS IMAGE.
THE INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME REPORTING AGENCIES. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS CONSOLIDATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS AS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, WHICH HAS LEFT THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PARTIALLY EXPOSED. TD 05W CONTINUES TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. HOWEVER,
NEAR-TERM FORECAST POSITION HAVE BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
BASED ON RECENT STORM MOTION.
   B. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HAINAN
ISLAND UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED PRIOR
TO LANDFALL IN RESPONSE TO PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND WESTWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, ONGOING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES HAINAN. LITTLE. IF ANY, REINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST ONCE
TD 05W RE-EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN AFTER TAU 24. A SECOND
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36, WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES TO THE WEST OF CONSENSUS NEAR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION GIVEN THE INTENSITY AND ORIENTATION OF THE 700 MB RIDGE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND IT TRACKS INLAND AS THE STEERING RIDGE
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES. GIVEN RELATIVE CONSISTENCY IN THE PAST TWO MODEL
GUIDANCE PACKAGES, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2016-07-26 13:10编辑了帖子]

图片

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  • 9914dan
    贡献值 9
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    2016-07-28 12:05
颱風若只如初見。
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发布于:2016-07-26 18:52
05W 預報理由翻譯帖 #4 — 七月廿六日十七時(260900Z)
1. 供氣象從業員使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
熱帶風暴05W(銀河)集結在中國海口之東南約132海里,過去六小時以12節向西北偏西移動。 動態多頻衛星圖像顯示一緩慢整合中的低層環流中心(LLCC)有深厚對流於中心上空建立,深厚對流雲帶亦有所改善。一幅協調世界時26日02時25分的進階散射測定儀(Advanced Scatterometer - ADSCAT)局部圖像顯示LLCC之東半圓上有一道30節的風場,此資訊以及達30至35節的德沃夏克估值俱支持現時35節的強度分析。現時位置是基於一幅協調世界時26日07時14分的特別微波探測成像儀(Special Sensor Microwave Imager — SSMI)圖像,顯示一明確中心位處深厚對流雲帶的北緣之下,並具備淺層雲帶緊密螺旋。雖然系統已經有所整合,受中等(20節)的東北垂直風切變影響,LLCC的北邊仍呈部分外露之態。熱帶風暴05W繼續沿著北面副熱帶高壓脊的邊緣向西北偏西移動。

3. 預報理由
A. 預報基礎大致維持不變。
B. 未來24小時,預期熱帶風暴05W將持續受北面低至中層副熱帶高壓脊的引導向西北偏西移動。其後,一道中緯度短波槽的靠近將令高壓脊內部出現弱點,系統會朝該處向更為偏北移動。持續預報就未來24小時展現緊密共識,因此預測路徑的早段信心頗高。其後,持續預報對預測路徑轉向階段的時間和幅度運算的些許不同呈現擴大的分歧,因此系統的確實路徑存在擴大的不確定性。預期熱帶風暴05W將在登陸海南島前稍為增強,於未來12小時前後達到40節的強度巔峰。熱帶風暴05W將於橫過海南島時減弱,於未來24小時前後橫過北部灣時稍作重新加強。當系統登陸越南東北部並進入內陸時,預測其將進一步減弱和消散。官方預報與共識相近。

(香港/ 北京時間為協調世界時加八小時)

图片:wp0516.gif

图片:05W_260600sams.jpg

图片:rgb_lalo-animated.gif


WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (MIRINAE) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND IMPROVED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 260225Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS A BAND
OF 30-KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC, WHICH
ALONG WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS, SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BOLSTERED BY A 260714Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CENTER
POSITIONED JUST UNDER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND
WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS
CONSOLIDATED, THE LLCC REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC DUE TO MODERATE (20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 05W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME.  
   B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
INCREASINGLY POLEWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR CREATED BY AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 24, THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES INCREASING SPREAD DUE TO MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
AND DEGREE OF THE RE-CURVE PHASE OF THE FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE
THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. TS
05W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER
HAINAN ISLAND WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS EXPECTED NEAR TAU
12. TS 05W SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER HAINAN ISLAND WITH A
SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF
TONKIN NEAR TAU 24. FURTHER WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST AS
THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER NORTHEAST VIETNAM AND TRACKS INLAND.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2016-07-26 22:51编辑了帖子]

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  • 9914dan
    贡献值 9
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    2016-07-28 12:06
颱風若只如初見。
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发布于:2016-07-26 22:50
05W 預報理由翻譯帖 #5 — 七月廿六日廿三時(261500Z)
1. 供氣象從業員使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
熱帶風暴05W(銀河)集結在中國海口之東南偏南約77海里,過去六小時以10節向西北偏西移動。動態色調強化紅外線衛星圖像顯示一緩慢整合中的低層環流中心(LLCC)和深厚對流擴張。基於來自所有機構達T2.5(35節)的德沃夏克估值,現時強度訂在35節。現時位置獲一幅協調世界時26日11時02分的特別微波探測成像儀/探空儀(Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder — SSMIS)圖像的支持,其顯示一個明確中心位處一道深厚對流螺旋雲帶的北緣。雖然系統已經有所整合,受中等(15至20節)的東北垂直風切變影響,LLCC的北邊仍呈部分外露之態。熱帶風暴05W繼續沿著北面副熱帶高壓脊的南緣向西北偏西移動。

3. 預報理由
A. 預報基礎大致維持不變。
B. 未來36小時,預期熱帶風暴05W將持續受北面低至中層副熱帶高壓脊的引導向西北偏西至西北移動。其後,一道中緯度短波槽的靠近將令高壓脊內部出現弱點,系統會朝該處向更為偏北移動。持續預報就未來24小時展現緊密共識,因此預測路徑的早段信心頗高。其後,持續預報對預測路徑轉向階段的時間和幅度運算的些許不同呈現擴大的分歧,因此系統的確實路徑存在擴大的不確定性。預期熱帶風暴05W將在登陸海南島前稍為增強,然後於橫過海南島時減弱。12小時後,預期熱帶風暴05W將於北部灣上空因温暖的海表温度、高海洋熱含量和垂直風切變下降而重新增強。24小時後系統將登陸越南東北部,進入內陸並減弱。官方預報與共識相近。

(香港/ 北京時間為協調世界時加八小時)

图片:wp0516.gif


图片:05W_261200sair.jpg

图片:05W EIR.gif


WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (MIRINAE) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 77 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL
EXTENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS (T2.5) FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 261102Z SSMIS IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED, THE LLCC
REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC
DUE TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TS 05W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME.  
   B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU
36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK MORE POLEWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
STR CREATED BY AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 24,
THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING SPREAD DUE TO MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE RE-CURVE PHASE OF THE
FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER HAINAN ISLAND THEN SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS OVER HAINAN ISLAND. AFTER TAU 12, TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN DUE TO WARM SST, HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT VALUES AND DECREASING VWS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
TAU 24 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER NORTHEAST VIETNAM AND TRACKS
INLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2016-07-27 01:42编辑了帖子]

图片

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  • 9914dan
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    2016-07-28 12:06
颱風若只如初見。
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tyfans
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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发布于:2016-07-27 14:47
05W预报理由翻译帖 #7 七月廿七日十一时(270300Z)
1、供气象从业者使用。
2、6小时总结与分析:
热带风暴05W(银河),集结在越南河内东南偏东方约176海里(的海面上),在过去的六个小时内,以(每小时)12节的速度往西北偏西方向移动。当前定位是基于来自RJTD和PGTW最近的卫星修整。而现时所订的35节的强度,则是基于所有报告机构主观给出的德沃夏克T估值。在过去的六小时内,热带风暴05W已在过去六小时内穿过海南岛,之后进入北部湾。此系统还将沿着位于其北侧的副热带高压脊的南缘,继续往西北偏西方向移动。持续的东北垂直风切使得低层环流中心(LLCC)部分外露。
3、预报理由:
A.预测的哲学基础与之前大致一样,没有改变。
B.预期热带风暴05W受当前的副热带高压脊引导,持续往西北偏西方向移动。未来12小时,因持续的垂直风切抵消,很温暖的海水支持和强的高空赤向流出通道的有利环境,可能会稍微加强。12小时后,热带风暴05W将到达越南北部并逐渐消散。未来36小时的预报,数值模式路径预报大致分成两派:一种是GFS、GEFS和GFS-INITIALIZE中尺度模式指出的,发展后突破高压脊,进行转向;一种是NAVGEN、ECMWF、JGSM和TC EPS指出的,稳定地往西北方向移动。当前的预测更符合第二种模式组,因为在过去一天中,它表现出了更好的代表性的转向模式,与最近的实际路径更加吻合,所以对目前的路径预报有高信心,更加倾向于有更多模式支持的第二种。

图片:1393467_1451090.gif


图片:1393467_1451290.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (MIRINAE) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 05W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS
IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME
REPORTING AGENCIES. TS 05W HAS EMERGED OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AFTER CROSSING HAINAN ISLAND. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS LEFT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
PARTIALLY EXPOSED.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
   B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS SUSTAINED VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR COUNTERACTS THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES OF PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO
NORTHERN VIETNAM AFTER TAU 12 AND STEADILY DISSIPATE THEREAFTER.
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SPLIT, WITH THE GFS,
GEFS, AND GFS-INITIALIZED MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATING A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK TOWARD A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE, AND
OTHER MODELS INCLUDING NAVGEM, ECMWF, JGSM, AND TC-EPS DEPICTING A
STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SECOND MODEL GROUPING, WHICH HAS
DEMONSTRATED A BETTER REPRESENTATION OF THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE PAST DAY OR SO. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MODEL GROUPING AND RECENT TRACK TRENDS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES TO THE LEFT OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
[拉姆爱推销于2016-07-27 15:13编辑了帖子]
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  • 9914dan
    贡献值 7
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    2016-07-28 12:06
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