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[EP]东太平洋四级飓风“乔杰特”(08E.Georgette) - 七月东太连续第七个命名风暴,发展出乎意料 - MAX:115KT

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更多 发布于:2016-07-21 07:05
90E INVEST 160720 1800   9.5N  109.5W EPAC   20  1009

图片:20160720.2230.goes13.x.vis1km_high.90EINVEST.15kts-NAmb-100N-1040W.jpg


图片:two_pac_2d2.png

图片:two_pac_5d0.png


2. A weak low pressure area is located almost 1000 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some
development of this system later this week or this weekend while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

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[9914dan于2016-07-30 14:34编辑了帖子]
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回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
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1楼#
发布于:2016-07-21 20:26

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Estelle, located more than 1100 miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located
about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
marginally conducive for some development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

图片:two_pac_2d2.png

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9914dan
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发布于:2016-07-22 05:18
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 212037
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
300 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

An ASCAT-B pass at 1742Z showed that the area of low pressure
located well southwest of Mexico now has a well-defined center, and
the geostationary imagery shows a curved convective band wrapping
nearly halfway around the system.  Given this, the low is now
classified as a tropical cyclone.  The initial intensity is set to
30 kt based on the ASCAT data, which is also in agreement with the
latest Dvorak estimate from SAB.  The depression will be moving over
SSTs of 28C or higher for the next couple of days, but will also be
in a moderate easterly to northeasterly shear environment during
that time.  Given these conditions, gradual intensification is
forecast in the short term.  The cyclone is forecast to peak in
about 72 hours before it moves over cooler waters and into a more
stable environment, which should result in slow weakening.  The NHC
intensity prediction is close to the intensity consensus through the
forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/10 given the
recent formation of the system.  The dominant steering mechanism for
the first 2-3 days of the forecast period will be a large
subtropical ridge that will migrate westward from central North
America over the eastern Pacific.  This should keep the cyclone
moving generally west-northwestward for the first 48 hours or so.
After that time, there is an increase in the spread of the guidance.
The ECMWF and HWRF show the cyclone turning more poleward into a
weakness in the ridge caused by an upper-level low, with the ECMWF
showing some northward motion possibly due to the influence of
Tropical Storm Fred to the the northeast.  The GFS, GEFS mean, and
COAMPS-TC show a more westward track with the cyclone staying south
of the ridge.  For now the NHC track forecast is down the middle of
the guidance envelope and is very close to the multi-model
consensus.  Given the large spread in the guidance, the track
forecast uncertainty is higher than usual late in the forecast
period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 10.8N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 11.4N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 12.3N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 13.0N 119.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 13.6N 122.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 15.0N 125.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 17.0N 128.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 18.0N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan


图片:205123W5_NL_sm.gif

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3楼#
发布于:2016-07-22 08:29
后期强度不看好 风切+互旋制约影响 预计未来将不会走流水线老路 东太流水线也是没sei了
frank和他强度都不会太高的
うるさくてたまらないんだ...
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t02436
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4楼#
发布于:2016-07-22 21:26
Georgette来了。
EP, 08, 2016072212,   , BEST,   0, 121N, 1166W,  35, 1005, TS,  34, NEQ,   30,   30,    0,    0, 1011,  150,  30,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      EIGHT, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 013,
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meow
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5楼#
发布于:2016-07-22 22:21
左边塞了好多个

图片:STORMPLOT.GIF

[颱風巨爵于2016-07-22 23:19编辑了帖子]
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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Meowmi
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6楼#
发布于:2016-07-22 23:12
話說Georgette應該是女生的名字吧
乔杰特... 喬潔
三^w^三
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meow
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7楼#
发布于:2016-07-22 23:36
Meowmi锛氃捳fGeorgette應該是女生的名字吧
乔杰特... 喬潔
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
中国大陆给的名字比较中性,刚看NHC给的发音是jor-JET。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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luhang
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8楼#
发布于:2016-07-23 08:44
WTPZ43 KNHC 222035
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Georgette has continued to strengthen today.  A small central dense
overcast is present in geostationary imagery with a well-defined
low-level eye seen in a 1415Z WindSat pass.  A hint of an eye was
also noted in earlier visible imagery.  The initial intensity is set
at 55 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.5/55 kt and
the UW-CIMSS ADT of T3.4/53 kt at 18Z.  It appears that the shear
has relaxed at least somewhat over the cyclone today, and the SSTs
of over 28C should be conducive for at least steady intensification
in the next 36 to 48 hours.  The new NHC intensity forecast has
again been adjusted upward and is above the intensity consensus and
close to the LGEM model.  Note that the HWRF shows more rapid
intensification in the short range, which is possible.  Later in the
forecast period the SSTs gradually cool, which should result in
steady weakening at days 3 through 5.

The initial motion is now a little faster toward the west-northwest
at 295/13.  Georgette should continue on this heading for the next
48 hours while being steered by a subtropical ridge centered to the
northeast.  After that time an upper-level low will undercut the
ridge northwest of the tropical cyclone, which should result in a
slower motion toward the northwest at days 3 and 4, followed by a
turn back toward the west-northwest at day 5 as the ridge rebuilds.
The new NHC track forecast is along the previous one but is again
faster during the first 72 hours following the guidance trend.  Late
in the period the new NHC track is a little to the left of the
previous one and is close to the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 12.8N 118.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 13.4N 119.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 14.0N 121.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 14.6N 123.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 15.5N 125.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 17.0N 127.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 18.0N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 19.0N 131.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

图片:203617W5_NL_sm.gif

图片:2016EP08_4KMSRBDC_201607230000.jpg

图片:2016EP08_1KMSRVIS_201607230000.gif

回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
我在论坛的当年今日:一年前,还满怀追风热情的我当上了论坛版主。如今卸任在即,希望有朝一日我能满怀激情再度归来!
当时等级 强台风
——1-21
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9楼#
发布于:2016-07-23 11:23
WTPZ43 KNHC 230235
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

This evening's satellite presentation has revealed some
deterioration of the cloud pattern.  Georgette's earlier impressive,
banding-eye feature is no longer present, and recent microwave
images indicate a more sheared, tilted structure.  Apparently,
modest northeasterly shear has once again returned and has partially
exposed the center of circulation to the east of the strongest
convection.  The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this
advisory and is based on Dvorak intensity estimates of T3.5 from
TAFB and SAB.  The large-scale guidance and the SHIPS model all
show the shear lingering for the next 24 hours or so.  Subsequently,
only modest strengthening is reflected, but all the
statistical-dynamical guidance show Georgette still becoming a
hurricane in 12 hours.  The intensity models indicate further
strengthening through mid-period, then agree on a gradual weakening
trend through day 5.  The official forecast follows this scenario
and is based on the combination of the IVCN multi-model consensus
and the stronger HWRF hurricane model.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwest at 290/11.  A
mid- to upper-level ridge extending westward over the eastern
Pacific from the southwestern United States should continue to
steer Georgette in this general direction for the next 36 hours.
Afterward, a retrograding upper-tropospheric trough, embedded in the
deep-layer easterly flow south of the ridge axis, is expected to
temporarily disrupt the steering flow just enough to cause Georgette
to decrease in speed and turn toward the northwest.  Late in the
period, the ridge should reestablish north of the cyclone and turn
Georgette back toward the west-northwest.  The NHC forecast is
quite similar to the last one, and closely follows the TVCN
multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 13.2N 119.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 13.7N 120.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 14.3N 122.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 15.0N 124.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 16.0N 125.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 17.5N 127.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 18.4N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 19.4N 131.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

图片:023643W5_NL_sm.gif


有点被切的感觉

图片:20160723.0230.goes15.x.ir1km_bw.08EGEORGETTE.55kts-999mb-130N-1189W.jpg

图片:20160722.2238.noaa19.x.color_89_150.08EGEORGETTE.50kts-1001mb-126N-1179W.jpg



图片:wg9wxc.gif

回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
我在论坛的当年今日:一年前,还满怀追风热情的我当上了论坛版主。如今卸任在即,希望有朝一日我能满怀激情再度归来!
当时等级 强台风
——1-21
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