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[SH(16-17)]马达加斯加以东中等热带风暴第1号“阿贝拉”(01S.Abela) - 南半球新风季首旋,残余登陆马达加斯加

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更多 发布于:2016-07-09 19:48
90S INVEST 160709 1200   3.0S   85.7E SHEM   15  1010

图片:20160709.0850.himawari8.x.vis2km.90SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-30S-857E.100pc.jpg



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图片:79_26427_120650facde4f3c.jpg



[9914dan于2016-07-21 19:26编辑了帖子]
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  • tcfa_gw
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    2016-07-09 20:01
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    2016-07-09 20:01
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发布于:2016-07-10 02:58
AWIO20 FMEE 091148
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2016/07/09 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
 Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The South West Indian Ocean basin is still in a Near Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern, south of the
equator, axis along 2 to 4S, from 70E to 90E. Convective activity has clearly strengthened during
the last 24hours east to 80E, a trough can be detected without any low.
Over the next five days, deep convection is likely to increase inside the NET, with the passage of an
equatorial Rossby wave in phasis with the arrival of the MJO over the basin. Then, a low may
appear, early next week, according to the numerical guidance. The presence of a north-easterly
upper level constraint is likely to prevent any significant deepening in the begining of the forecast
period.
However, at the end of the period, up to wednesday, the low may benefit from a good polar low
level convergence as the new anticyclonic cell establishs over the basin, and a weakening upper
level constraint. This evolution is also visible on the storm signal of the ECMWF ensemble
prediction, with a maximum between the 13 and the 15/07. Even if for the moment, a cyclogenesis
seems unlikely, the evolution may produce a weather degradation on the Seychelles islands at the
end of the week.

For the next 5 days, the lihelihood that a tropical depression develops over the basin is very
low, and becomes low to moderate from wednesday.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression
over the basin and within the next five days:


Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%           High: 50% to 90%


The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african
coastlines to 90E.
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2楼#
发布于:2016-07-11 04:55
AWIO20 FMEE 100933
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2016/07/10 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The South West Indian Ocean basin is still in a Near Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern, south of the
equator, axed along 4S.
Convective activity has remained fluctuant during the past 24hours east to 75E, from the Equator to
10S.
Avalaible satellite pictures do not display any low level closed circulation. But the ASCAT data
suggest a broad and elongated low level circulation between 80E and 90E, axed along 4S. The
winds are in the range of 10kt equatorward and 15/20kt poleward.

Over the next five days, deep convection is likely to increase inside the NET, with the passage of an
equatorial Rossby wave in phasis with the arrival of the MJO over the basin. Then, a low may
appear, early next week, according to the numerical guidance and move East-South-Eastward over
the high subtropical high pressure.
The presence of a north-easterly upper level constraint is likely to prevent any significant deepening
in the begining of the forecast period.
However, at the end of the period, up to wednesday, the low may benefit from a good polar low
level convergence as the new anticyclonic cell establishes over the basin, and a weakening upper
level constraint. This evolution is also visible on the storm signal of the ECMWF ensemble
prediction, with a maximum between the 14 and the 16/07.
Up to wednesday, the lihelihood that a tropical depression develops over the basin is very low,
and becomes low to moderate beyond.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression
over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%           High: 50% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african
coastlines to 90E.


ASCAT 100350

图片:WMBds210.png

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发布于:2016-07-11 21:18
GFS反应强烈,认为能够成旋
不过巅峰处的海温真心抓鸡
EC反应倒是挺正常的,认为能够以低压撑到马达加斯加,不过不会成旋

图片:QQ图片20160711211214.png

图片:27.track.png

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4楼#
发布于:2016-07-11 22:41
非洲东岸不是有马达加斯加暖流吗?为何海温还比同纬度的底
几经兴衰,终放光明。
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5楼#
发布于:2016-07-12 02:57
AWIO20 FMEE 111114
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2016/07/11 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The South West Indian Ocean basin is still in a Near Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern, south of the
equator, axed along 4S.
Convective activity has remained fluctuant during the past 24hours east to 75E, from the Equator to
12S.
No Available satellite pictures neither MW data do not display any low level closed circulation. But
the ASCAT data suggest a broad and elongated low level circulation between 75E and 85E, axed
along 6S. The winds are in the range of 10kt equatorward and 15/20kt pole-ward, and remain quite
weak in the center of the area.

Over the next five days, deep convection is likely to increase inside the NET, with the passage of
the MJO over the basin. Then, a low may appear, early in the week, according to the numerical
guidance and move East-South-Eastward over the high subtropical high pressure.
Up to Wednesday, the low may benefit from a good polar low level convergence as the new
anticyclonic cell establishes over the basin, and a good upper level divergence. This evolution is
also visible on the storm signal of the ECMWF ensemble prediction, with a maximum between the
14 and the 16/07.
Even if some members develop a little this low, no one does it significantly due to the persistence of
a moderate to strong north-easterly vertical wind over this area until Saturday.
Then this low may track under the upper level ridge over unfavorable SST.
Up to Wednesday, the likelihood that a tropical depression develops over the basin is very low,
and becomes low to moderate beyond.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression
over the basin and within the next five days:


Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%           High: 50% to 90%


The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african
coastlines to 90E.
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6楼#
发布于:2016-07-12 02:58

图片:abiosair.jpg


ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/111800Z-121800ZJUL2016//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.6S 77.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A PREVIOUS METOP-B 110424Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTED
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE AS IT
TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE THAT INDUCES A PERSISTENT SURFACE VORTICITY RESPONSE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
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meow
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7楼#
发布于:2016-07-12 14:42
今年西南印度洋海温分布不太寻常......

图片:color_newdisp_anomaly_20E_85E_25S_20N_ophi0.png



所以前期路径偏暖导致海温适合发展,近岸急剧冷却会迎来快速减弱。
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8楼#
发布于:2016-07-13 11:17
总得来说EC与GFS还是很看好这个系统的,特别是GFS一直认为能够成旋。现在形态上也是挺不错的,涡度显示基本上摆脱槽性。
EC认为会在出暖水区之前巅峰,比较可信,而且认为会被西风提前勾走,而不登陆马达加斯加。
GFS则认为会在登陆马达加斯加之前巅峰,喂喂,那里的海温只有25上下耶!以前是也有过在26-27℃海温巅峰的TC,但是25℃你想巅峰,我想说GFS是不是抽了。

图片:wm5vor.GIF


图片:20160713_0230_meteo7_x_vis2km_90SINVEST_20kts-1007mb-81S-744E_100pc.jpg

图片:ecmwf_z500_mslp_ind_5.png

图片:gfs_pres_wind_ind_24.png

图片:16.phase2.zoom.png

图片:wm5sht.GIF


另外前方风切挺强的,不过看EC与GFS的预报风切要减弱,另外前方的干空气也不容忽视
我有点期待南印7月初旋
虽说东太已经开启流水线,不过都是普通货色,没有什么亮点
最后提醒一下楼主,你这个水货2T该改标题啦
[听着闹铃睡觉于2016-07-13 11:27编辑了帖子]
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  • 拉姆爱推销
    金钱 +0.233
    你这个水货2T该改标题啦
    2016-07-13 11:34
俱往矣,何不寻欢。
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9楼#
发布于:2016-07-14 06:05
AWIO20 FMEE 120956
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2016/07/12 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The South West Indian Ocean basin is still in a Near Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern, south of the
equator, axed along 6S.
Convective activity has remained fluctuant during the past 24hours east of 70E, from the Equator to
12S.
Neither the available satellite pictures nor the ASCAT data display any low level closed circulation
in this area.
But the ECMWF deterministic model analyzes a broad low level circulation located near 6S/75E at
12Z, consistent with the available surface observations.

Over the next five days, deep convection is likely to remain active inside the NET, with the passage
of the MJO over the basin. According to the numerical guidance, a low may deepen slowly from
tomorrow and move west-south-westward over the high subtropical high pressure.
From tomorrow, the low may benefit from a good polar low level convergence as the new
anticyclonic cell establishes over the basin. The north-easterly upper level windshear is strong.
The ECMWF ensemble prediction continues to increase the cyclogenesis probability from Thursday
14th, in relation with the winds strengthening south of the low level circulation in the pressure
gradient.
However, none of the EPS member deepens the low significantly for the next five days, due to the
persistence of a moderate to strong north-easterly vertical windsher over this area until Saturday,
and weak oceanic heat potential south of 10S.

For the next five days, the potential of development of a tropical depression is low to moderate
between Thursday and Saturday.ou


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression
over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%           High: 50% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african
coastlines to 90E.
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