颱風巨爵
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[报文翻译][2016] 1601号热带气旋“尼伯特”(02W.Nepartak) JTWC预报理由翻译帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2016-07-02 18:21
尼伯特:

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翻译信息表:
                                                                                         
报数
                                                                                         
时间
                                                                                         
翻译情况
                                                                                         
翻译者
                                                                                         
楼层
                                                                                         
#TCFA
                                                                                         
0702-0630Z
                                                                                         
全文翻译
                                                                                         
颱風巨爵
                                                                                         
                                                                                         
#1
                                                                                                           
0703-0300Z
                                                                                                           
全文翻译
                                                                                                           
颱風巨爵
                                                                                                           
                                                                                                         
#2
                                                                                                         
0703-0900Z
                                                                                                         
全文翻译
                                                                                                         
kennethiumchan
                                                                                                         
                                                                                                         
#3
                                                                                                         
0703-1500Z
                                                                                                         
全文翻译
                                                                                                         
颱風巨爵
                                                                                                         
                                                                                                         
#4 - #5
                                                                                                         
0703-2100Z
0704-0300Z
                                                                                                         
-
                                                                                                         
-
                                                                                                         
-
                                                                                                       
#6
                                                                                                       
0704-0900Z
                                                                                                       
全文翻译
                                                                                                       
颱風巨爵
                                                                                                       
                                                                                                         
#7 - #9
                                                                                                       
0704-1500Z
0704-2100Z
0705-0300Z
                                                                                                       
-
                                                                                                       
-
                                                                                                       
-
                                                                                                       
#10
                                                                                                       
0705-0900Z
                                                                                                       
全文翻译
                                                                                                       
颱風巨爵
                                                                                                       
                                                                                                       
#11
                                                                                                       
0705-1500Z
                                                                                                       
全文翻译
                                                                                                       
风王2012
                                                                                                       
                                                                                                       
#12
                                                                                                       
0705-2100Z
                                                                                                       
-
                                                                                                       
-
                                                                                                       
-
                                                                                                       
#13
                                                                                                       
0706-0300Z
                                                                                                       
全文翻译
                                                                                                       
风王2012
                                                                                                       
                                                                                                       
#14
                                                                                                       
0706-0900Z
                                                                                                       
全文翻译
                                                                                                       
颱風巨爵
                                                                                                       
                                                                                                       
#15
                                                                                                       
0706-1500Z
                                                                                                       
全文翻译
                                                                                                       
颱風巨爵
                                                                                                       
                                                                                                       
#16
                                                                                                       
0706-2100Z
                                                                                                       
-
                                                                                                       
-
                                                                                                       
-
                                                                                                       
#17
                                                                                                       
0707-0300Z
                                                                                                       
全文翻译
                                                                                                       
风王2012
                                                                                                       
                                                                                                       
#18
                                                                                                       
0707-0900Z
                                                                                                       
全文翻译
                                                                                                       
颱風巨爵
                                                                                                       
                                                                                                       
#19
                                                                                                       
0707-1500Z
                                                                                                       
全文翻译
                                                                                                       
风王2012
                                                                                                       
                                                                                                       
#20
                                                                                                       
0707-2100Z
                                                                                                       
-
                                                                                                       
-
                                                                                                       
-
                                                                                                     
#21
                                                                                                     
0708-0300Z
                                                                                                     
全文翻译
                                                                                                     
风王2012
                                                                                                     
                                                                                                     
#22
                                                                                                     
0708-0900Z
                                                                                                     
全文翻译
                                                                                                     
风王2012
                                                                                                     
                                                                                                     
#23
                                                                                                     
0708-1500Z
                                                                                                     
全文翻译
                                                                                                     
颱風巨爵
                                                                                                     
                                                                                                     
#24
                                                                                                     
0708-2100Z
                                                                                                     
全文翻译
                                                                                                     
颱風巨爵
                                                                                                     
                                                                                                     
#25
                                                                                                     
0709-0300Z
                                                                                                     
-
                                                                                                     
-
                                                                                                     
-
                                                                                                     
#26 (FW)
                                                                                                     
0709-0900Z
                                                                                                     
全文翻译
                                                                                                     
颱風巨爵
                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                             
                                                                                           
                                                                                             
   


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组织规则:
第一条 预报理由翻译贴是对JTWC Reasoning文件进行翻译的专贴。由于气旋的Reasoning文件翻译量不定,因此需要一定的人事组织,参与组织或翻译的会员将获得一定程度的奖励。
第二条 任何会员都可对任何JTWC升格的系统开贴,但原则上建议只对我国有影响的系统开帖。对不影响我国的系统,不建议单独开贴,翻译者可在追击贴或深度贴内进行,版主将按第八条之标准酌情加分。
第三条 开帖人默认为组织人,负责更新首楼的翻译信息表,并履行好翻译工作的责任,自己开帖让别人翻译的行为将被谴责及追究。如遇多人开贴,则同“抢扰动”规则,只保留一个帖子。若开帖人无时间组织,可委托管理团队组织。
第四条 翻译的模式有两种,分别为全部翻译、要点翻译。实践中,不建议连续全文翻译,可针对预报理由变动进行要点总结。
第五条 内容发布时,报文原文、中文翻译必须齐全。
第六条 开贴加分:开帖人翻译一篇或以上报文,威望+5;否则削减为威望+2。
第七条 组织加分:开设翻译信息表,贡献值+1;维护翻译信息表至台风结束,根据台风维持时间长短,追加贡献值2点,威望3~8点。
第八条 内容加分:全文翻译,视翻译质量加贡献值6-9点;要点翻译,视翻译质量贡献值2-5点。对单个台风,翻译5~9报者,追加贡献值5点,翻译10报以上者,追加贡献值10点。
第九条 使用翻译机进行翻译的,不予加分。
第十条 台风论坛管理团队对本条例有最终解释权。
[颱風巨爵于2016-07-17 01:01编辑了帖子]
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颱風巨爵
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发布于:2016-07-02 18:22
99W 預報理由翻譯帖 #TCFA — 七月二日十四時三十分(020630Z)
備註/
1. 在未來12至24小時,從北緯7.7度,東經144.5度至北緯9.5度,東經142.3度兩邊各160海里的範圍內可能形成一個明顯的熱帶氣旋。現有數據並不支持發出帶編號的熱帶氣旋警報。此區域內風力估計為20至24節。一幅協調世界時02日00時00分的氣象衛星圖像顯示一個環流中心位於北緯7.8度,東經144.1度附近。此系統正以4節向西北偏西移動。

2. 備註:原先位於北緯7.7度,東經144.5度附近的對流區現在位於北緯7.8度,東經144.1度附近,即在關島以南約186海里。動態多頻衛星圖像以及一幅協調世界時02日02時20分的「全球變化觀察任務」,頻率為360億赫兹的衛星圖像皆顯示呈螺旋帶狀的深層對流正捲入一個鞏固中的低層環流中心(LLCC)。最近的散射測定儀數據反映出一道達20節的核心風場開始從南到北捲入系統,而南方更遠處則有零星的25節風矢。高空分析顯示有輻射式流出和低(10至15節)垂直風切變,環境有利發展。持續模式預報就系統未來24至36小時西北移動期間的增強趨勢呈現良好共識。表面最高持續風速估計達20至24節。最低海平面氣壓估計1007毫巴左右。基於有所改善的對流組織和有利的環境,一個明顯的熱帶氣旋於未來24小時內發展的機會頗高。

3. 此警報將於協調世界時03日06時30分前被重新發出、升級為熱帶氣旋警報或解除。

(香港/ 北京時間為協調世界時加八小時)

图片:wp9916.gif

图片:99W_020630sams.jpg


WTPN21 PGTW 020630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7N 144.5E TO 9.5N 142.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.8N 144.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N
144.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 020220Z GCOM
36 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATE A CORE OF 20 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH WITH ISOLATED 25 KNOT WINDS WELL
TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030630Z.//
NNNN
[拉姆爱推销于2016-07-10 08:37编辑了帖子]

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1条评分, 贡献值 +8
  • luhang
    贡献值 8
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    2016-07-03 07:32
颱風若只如初見。
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颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2016-07-03 15:19
02W 預報理由翻譯帖 #1 — 七月三日十一時(030300Z)
1. 供氣象從業員使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
動態多頻衛星圖像捕捉到一廣闊的密集雲層區缺乏雲帶發展,然而於過去六小時逐漸鞏固和改善。一幅協調世界時02日21時45分,頻率為910億赫兹的特別微波探測成像儀/測深儀(Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder — SSMIS)圖像顯示一道非常深厚的對流雲帶從南面捲入低層環流中心之內,為此我們對初始定位信心一般。基於有所改善的整合情況和來自關島、華盛頓和東京各機構的客觀德法分析估值,現時強度被定在25節。高空輻射式流出、15至20節之間的垂直風切變和攝氏31度左右的海面温度,皆為有利增強的環境條件。

3. 預報理由
A. 此乃初始之預報理由,奠定了預報哲理基礎
B. 在未來12至24小時,北面一個熱帶對流層上部槽單體將向西移離,熱帶低氣壓02W會維持在引導氣流微弱的環境之中。預期一道副熱帶高壓脊會從東北面建立,驅使尼伯特向西北移動。期間,流出將持續改善,預料系統將於暖水上空逐漸整合增強。

C. 在預報延伸時段,預測尼伯特能增強至颱風強度。隨著系統於副高引導下繼續向西北移動,其移速預料會上升。120小時後,預期一道西風槽將移入區域內並打擊副高,引致系統北轉。現有的持續模式預報共識良好,只有在延伸時段內就路徑展現少許分歧。因此,聯合颱風警報中心對路徑預測信心頗高。

(香港/ 北京時間為協調世界時加八小時)

图片:wp0216.gif

图片:02W_030000sams.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (NEPARTAK)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
DENSE OVERCAST WITH LIMITED FORMATIVE BANDING AND IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. A 022145Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE
SHOWS A DEEP VERY CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE SOUTH GIVING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS
AND IS BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 31 CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 02W WILL REMAIN UNDER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE NORTH MOVES OFF
TO THE WEST.  A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TAKING NEPARTAK ON A NORTHWESTERN TRACK.  GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME AS OUTFLOW
STEADILY IMPROVES AND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WARM
WATER.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD NEPARTAK IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH. ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE
AS IT CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTERN TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TAU 120 A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE AND CAUSING A SHIFT NORTHWARD.  
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, DIFFERING
SLIGHTLY IN THE EXTENDED TAU TRACKS, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2016-07-03 16:59编辑了帖子]

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1条评分, 贡献值 +8
  • luhang
    贡献值 8
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    2016-07-04 18:53
颱風若只如初見。
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kennethiumchan
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发布于:2016-07-03 17:57
02W 預報理由翻譯帖 #2 — 七月三日十七時(030900Z)
1. 供氣象從業員使用。
2. 6小時總結及分析:

動態多頻譜衛星圖像顯示一個整合中的低層環流中心及向系統中心旋捲的螺旋對流雲帶。一幅於協調世界時02日04時54分拍攝的370億赫茲特別微波探測成像儀(Special Sensor Microwave Imager — SSMI)圖像顯示螺旋雲帶主要侷限於系統的東側及南側,並使聯合颱風警報中心本報的定位信心頗高。於協調世界時03日00時21分的散射風場掃描錄得系統帶有30節風速,並於東側的深厚對流局部錄得35節風速,使目前系統強度評估為35節。高層的徑向流出、低(10至15節)垂直風切變及溫暖的海面等大氣環境於目前均有利於系統增強。

3. 預報理由

A. 預報哲理自上報預報理由起並無改變。

B. 一個位於熱帶風暴02W(JTWC誤標為TD)以北的熱帶高空對流槽將逐漸向西移離,令02W於未來12至24小時處於微弱的駛流場中。副熱帶高壓脊將在尼伯特之東北面建立,使尼伯特採取西北路徑移動。基於流出正穩定地改善,目前預測系統將在溫暖的海洋上繼續整合並逐漸增強。

C. 在預報延伸時段,預料尼伯特將穩定地增強至颱風強度。其移動速度亦預料在其於副熱帶高壓脊影響下向西北移動下逐漸加快,並伴隨較低垂直風切變及極佳的高層流出。120小時後,一道西風槽將移近並削弱副熱帶高壓脊,使系統轉向偏北方向移動。目前持續模式預報共識良好,只於預報延伸時段的路徑有少許分歧,使聯合颱風警報中心對路徑預測信心頗高。

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM. A 020454Z 37 GHZ SSMI IMAGE REVEALS THIS BANDING IS
MAINLY CONFINED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM, AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A
030021Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING A BAND OF 30 KNOT WINDS WITH ISOLATED 35
KNOT WINDS WITHIN DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION
WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM SSTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W WILL REMAIN UNDER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE NORTH MOVES OFF
TO THE WEST.  A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TAKING NEPARTAK ON A NORTHWESTERN TRACK. GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME AS OUTFLOW STEADILY
IMPROVES AND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WARM
WATER.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD NEPARTAK IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH AT A STEADY RATE. ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE IS ALSO
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS IT CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTERN TRACK UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITH RELATIVELY LOW VWS AND
EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. BY TAU 120 A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE AND CAUSING A
SHIFT NORTHWARD. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, DIFFERING SLIGHTLY IN THE EXTENDED TAU TRACKS, GIVING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.

图片:wp0216.gif

图片:02W_030600sams.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2016-07-03 23:00编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +7
  • luhang
    贡献值 7
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    2016-07-04 18:53
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颱風巨爵
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发布于:2016-07-04 01:20
02W 預報理由翻譯帖 #3 — 七月三日廿三時(031500Z)
1. 供氣象從業員使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
動態色調強化紅外線衛星圖像捕捉到深厚而持久的對流雲系大致圍繞著低層環流中心(LLCC),過去數小時雲頂温度顯著下降。一幅協調世界時03日08時54分,頻率為910億赫兹的特別微波探測成像儀/測深儀(Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder — SSMIS)圖像亦顯示緊密螺旋對流雲帶捲入系統之中。基於來自所有機構達T2.5至3.0(35至45節)的德沃夏克現時強度估值,系統強度被定在40節。一幅協調世界時03日12時14分的進階散射測定儀(Advanced Scatterometer - ADSCAT)「靶心」掃描顯示 LLCC 之東北側有一35節的核心風場。對此數據的粗略分析支持現時的「最佳路徑」定位,信心良好。隨著一支極向流出通道的發展,加上低(10至15節)垂直風切變和非常高的海表温度,環境條件有利進一步增強。

3. 預報理由
A. 預報基礎對比上次沒有改變
B. 熱帶風暴02W已開始加速向西北移動,並會在北面副熱帶高壓脊持續建立並支配駛流的情況下繼續加速前進。未來12至24小時,隨著一道熱帶對流層上部槽移至對02W更為有利的西北面,令高空流出繼續改善,穩定增強的步伐將會展開。

C. 在預報延伸時段,預測尼伯特能穩步增強至颱風強度。在副熱帶高壓脊影響下,02W會繼續加速向西北移動,沿途垂直風切變較低,高空流出優越。96小時後,一道高空槽預期會橫過中國東北,削弱主導駛流的高壓脊,引致系統北轉。預測熱帶氣旋尼伯特將在96小時後,在副高脊線附近的有利位置達到110節的巔峰強度。持續模式預報對未來72小時的路徑運算呈現相當良好的共識,然而就其後系統轉向的情形存在上升的不確定性。總體而言,聯合颱風警報中心對路徑預測的信心頗高。

(香港/ 北京時間為協調世界時加八小時)

图片:wp0216.gif

图片:02W_031200sair.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP,
SUSTAINED CONVECTION AROUND MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD-TOP COOLING OBSERVED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. A 030854Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE ALSO REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED
AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
BETWEEN T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. A 031214Z ASCAT
BULLS-EYE PASS SHOWS A CORE OF 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. AN AMBIGUOUS ANALYSIS OF THE DATA SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY HIGH SSTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 02W HAS BEGUN ACCELERATING NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PICK UP FORWARD SPEED AS A STR TO THE NORTH BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED AND ACTS AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. STEADY
INTENSIFICATION WILL COMMENCE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE, AS A TUTT MOVES TO A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION TO THE NORTHWEST OF 02W.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD NEPARTAK IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH AT A STEADY RATE. 02W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STR, WITH RELATIVELY LOW VWS AND EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. BY
TAU 96, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHEAST
CHINA WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE AND CAUSING A SHIFT NORTHWARD. TC
NEPARTAK IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS AT TAU
96 AT A FAVORABLE POSITION NEAR THE STR AXIS. DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 72
HOURS, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE RECURVATURE OF THE SYSTEM
IN THE LATER TAUS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
HIGH.//
NNNN

图片:avn_lalo-animated.gif

[颱風巨爵于2016-07-04 01:54编辑了帖子]

图片

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  • luhang
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    2016-07-04 18:54
颱風若只如初見。
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发布于:2016-07-04 18:21
02W 預報理由翻譯帖 #6 — 七月四日十七時(040900Z)
1. 供氣象從業員使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
熱帶風暴02W(尼伯特)集結在法斯島以北約175海里,過去六小時以14節向西北移動。動態多頻衛星圖像捕捉到一形成中的中心密集雲層區特徵,並於過去六小時觀察到雲頂温度下降,預示系統可能即將進一步加強。一幅協調世界時04日05時41分,頻率為890億赫兹的進階微波測深儀(Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit - AMSU)圖像顯示緊密螺旋對流雲帶捲入一個明確的低層環流中心之中;由其反映出的「最佳路徑」現時定位,信心一般。基於來自關島和東京機構達T3.0(45節)的德沃夏克現時強度估值,初始強度被定在45節。良好的極向流出、低(10至15節)垂直風切變和非常高的海表温度,令環境條件有利發展。

3. 預報理由
A. 預報基礎對比上次沒有改變
B. 預料熱帶風暴尼伯特會在東南—西北向的副熱帶高壓脊引導下繼續向西北移動。預期持續有利的高空環境將容許系統於未來72小時穩步增強。24小時後,熱帶風暴尼伯特將達致颱風強度,並於未來72小時前後達到105節的巔峰強度,屆時系統將靠近副高脊線。

C. 在預報延伸時段,隨著一道中緯度西風槽從西面靠近並引致主導駛流的副高出現一輕微弱點,熱帶風暴02W會減速北轉。96小時後,受中緯度槽、不利的垂直風切變和較涼的海表温度影響,熱帶風暴尼伯特將開始呈減弱趨勢。持續模式預報對未來72小時的路徑運算呈現相當良好的共識,然而就其後系統轉向的幅度展現較高的不確定性。總體而言,聯合颱風警報中心對路徑預測的信心頗高。

(香港/ 北京時間為協調世界時加八小時)

图片:wp0216.gif

图片:02W_040600sams.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH
OF FAIS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FORMATIVE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH CLOUD-TOP COOLING OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS, INDICATING FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM MAY
BE IMINENT. A 040541Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM SSTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS NEPARTAK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
STR. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A STEADY RATE OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE. TS
NEPARTAK WILL REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 24, AND A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 105 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE STR AXIS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TS 03W IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND CURVE TO
THE NORTH AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM WEST CAUSING A
SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE. TS NEPARTAK WILL BEGIN A
WEAKENING TREND FROM TAU 96 AND BEYOND AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE MID-LATTITUDE TROUGH, UNFAVORABLE VWS VALUES, AND COLDER SSTS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72, WITH HIGHER UNCERTAINTY OBSERVED AFTER TAU
72 ASSOCIATED WITH THE VARYING DEGREES OF RECURVATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[颱風巨爵于2016-07-04 18:36编辑了帖子]

图片

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  • luhang
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    2016-07-04 18:55
颱風若只如初見。
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发布于:2016-07-05 17:48
02W 預報理由翻譯帖 #10 — 七月五日十七時(050900Z)
JTWC今次報文解釋了預測調整的原因,惟篇幅較長,翻譯需時,敬請期待!

1. 供氣象從業員使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
颱風02W(尼伯特)集結在臺北之東南偏東約927海里,過去六小時以18節向西北偏西移動。最近的紅外線衛星圖像顯示系統變得更具組織,而一風眼正在形成,令現時定位信心良好。85節的強度評估與最近的客觀衛星強度共識估值,以及來自關島、華盛頓和日本機構的主觀德沃夏克估值一致。受惠於沿途非常温暖的海水、低垂直風切變和由西北面一道高空槽所加強的有利流出,颱風02W正迅速增強。在廣闊而深厚的副熱帶高壓脊邊緣,颱風02W繼續在其引導下向西北快速移動。

3. 預報理由
A. 尤其在未來48至120小時期間,預測路徑向西和南調整。巔峰強度上調至125節,其後基於地形和其他環境因素影響,預期系統將在延伸時段較快速地減弱。

B. 最新的大氣中層分析和模式預報集合顯示主導駛流的高壓脊較之前預測更為連續,西伸幅度更大。預料未來48小時,颱風尼伯特會處於上述副熱帶高壓脊的邊緣,受其引導下繼續大致向西北移動,而登陸臺灣是絕對有可能發生。由於多項環境因素仍然有利進一步發展,預料短期內迅速增強的趨勢將持續。雖然預期的巔峰強度是125節,然而系統仍有可能於登陸前達到超級颱風強度。72小時後,颱風02W將開始繞過主導駛流的高壓脊邊緣,並受地形影響稍為減弱。數值模式預報就未來72小時的預測情況共識良好,令該時段的路徑預測信心頗高。

C. 在預報延伸時段,預期颱風02W將越過高壓脊線,於中國東部沿岸上空向北移動。屆時地形、垂直風切變上升和較涼的海水將導致系統持續減弱。數值模式就預報的大體情況呈現良好共識,然而對路徑於高壓脊邊緣的位置和時間分歧嚴重。基於延伸時段的分歧和最近的預報調整,現時延伸路徑的預測信心低迷。

图片:wp0216.gif

图片:02W_050000sams.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 927 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND A DEVELOPING EYE, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF 85
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT OBJECTIVE, SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY
CONSENSUS ESTIMATES AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK VALUES REPORTED BY PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. TY 02W IS UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AIDED BY PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN  UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST. TY 02W CONTINUES TO TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST,
PARTICULARLY IN THE TAU 48 THROUGH TAU 120 FORECAST PERIOD. THE PEAK
FORECAST INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 125 KNOTS, AND A MORE RAPID
WEAKENING TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
ANTICIPATED LAND INTERACTION AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS.
   B. THE LATEST MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE PACKAGE
INDICATES A MORE CONTINUOUS STEERING RIDGE EXTENDING FARTHER TO THE
WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND LANDFALL IN TAIWAN IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NEAR-TERM AS MULTIPLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECASTED AT
125 KNOTS, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH SUPERTYPHOON
INTENSITY AT SOME POINT BEFORE LANDFALL. BY TAU 72, TY 02W WILL
BEGIN TO ROUND THE STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY AND WEAKEN A BIT DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO WITHIN THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE
STEERING RIDGE AXIS AND TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF
CHINA. LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND PASSAGE
OVER COOLER WATER WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING DURING THIS PERIOD.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE TRACK AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY.
GIVEN THIS SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THE RECENT FORECAST
SHIFT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2016-07-05 23:23编辑了帖子]

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  • spidyl2009
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    2016-07-12 14:25
颱風若只如初見。
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风王2012
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发布于:2016-07-05 22:44
01W预报理由翻译帖 #11 07月05日23时 (070515Z)
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析
台风02W(尼伯特),目前正位于台湾台北市东南偏东方约821海里处,在过去6小时内其以每小时18节的速度向西北偏西方向移动。我们对目前定位有着颇高的信心,这主要是基于PGTW和RJTD利用卫星云图所作出的定位。最新的德法分析结果显示在过去六小时内,台风02W经历了快速加强的过程。我们估测其目前强度为120节。它正在通过高海温、上层流出良好的海域,而其西北部海域(的条件)也支持其进一步快速加强。我们预测其将继续沿着广大、呈块状的副热带高压脊向西北方向移动。
3.预报理由
A. 近期我们预测的强度一直在上升,这主要是由于我们目前所观测到台风02W正在快速增强的事实。
B. 我们预测,在未来48小时内,台风02W将在副热带高压脊的引导下朝着台湾,继续向西北方向移动。由于环境良好,我们认为其将继续保持快速增强的趋势。在登陆前,其有可能由于上层流出条件的不利而略有减弱。在72小时后,其将开始沿着副热带高压脊转向并在陆地作用下进一步减弱。数值预报在未来72小时的预报中一致性较高,因而我们对该时间段内的预报信心颇高。
C. 在延伸预报期内,台风02W将继续沿着副热带高压脊转向并横过中国华东一带。陆地作用、增大的垂直风切变和海温的降低都将会导致台风02W在这一时期稳步减弱。数值模型预测对此有很高的一致性,但是具体的转向时间、转向时所处的位置、方向等方面仍有分歧。鉴于此,我们对延伸预报期内的预报信心很低。

图片:wp0216.gif


JTWC预报图(070512Z)

图片:up50_2016070512.png


东亚500HPA位势(070512Z)

图片:02W_051200sair.jpg


台风02W卫星图像(070512Z)

图片:SST.png


台风02W目前及其预测路径上海域海温图

图片:辐合辐散.png


台风02W特写区域辐合辐散叠加图(蓝线为辐合,黄线为辐散)
WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)
WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 821 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. RECENT
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
INDICATE THAT TY 02W HAS UNDERGONE VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, TO A CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS.
PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST ARE
SUPPORTING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND. TY 02W CONTINUES TO
TRACK QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN THE NEAR-TERM
BASED ON THE OBSERVED RATE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
   B. TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TAIWAN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STEADY TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. SOME WEAKENING MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
LANDFALL AS OUTFLOW DECREASES IN RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. BY TAU 72, TY 02W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY AND WEAKEN FURTHER DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO WITHIN THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE
STEERING RIDGE AXIS AND TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF
CHINA. LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND PASSAGE
OVER COOLER WATER WILL RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING DURING THIS
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE TRACK AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. GIVEN
THIS SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.//
[风王2012于2016-07-05 23:51编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2016-07-06 09:50
01W预报理由翻译帖 #13 07月06日11时 (070603Z)
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析
超强台风02W(尼伯特),目前大致位于台湾台北市东南方约613海里处,在过去6小时内其以每小时18节的速度向西北偏西方向移动。多光谱卫星动画图像显示系统正在变得更加紧凑,圆润的台风眼扩大至16海里左右。我们对目前定位的较高信心主要基于卫星动画图像上的台风眼特征。我们将其当前强度定为140节主要是基于PGTW, KNES和RJTD综合德法评价。高层流场分析显示台风02W正处于低风切区(5-10节),拥有良好的双向流出。而且,它正处于海温很高的菲律宾海附近,在副热带高压脊的引导下向西北方向移动。
3. 预报理由
A. 预报理由无明显改变。
B. 我们预测,在未来48小时内,台风02W将在副热带高压脊的引导下朝着台湾,继续向西北方向移动。由于环境良好,我们认为其将继续保持快速增强的趋势。在登陆前,其有可能由于上层流出条件的不利而略有减弱。其在台湾北部登陆后(48小时后)沿着副热带高压脊转向并在陆地作用下进一步减弱。数值预报在未来72小时的预报中一致性较高,因而我们对该时间段内的预报信心颇高。
C. 在延伸预报期内,台风02W将继续沿着副热带高压脊转向并横过中国华东一带。陆地作用、增大的垂直风切变和海温的降低都将会导致台风02W在这一时期稳步减弱。数值模型预测对此有很高的一致性,但是具体的转向时间、转向时所处的位置、方向等方面仍有分歧。鉴于此,我们对延伸预报期内的预报信心很低。

图片:79_98662_a1ebc7c78820a91.gif


JTWC预报图(070600Z)

图片:SST.png


台风02W目前及其预测路径上海域海温图(07052233Z)

图片:up50_2016070600.png


东亚500HPA位势(070600Z)

图片:高空风场.GIF



高空风场(070600Z)

图片:himawari-8_band_03_sector_03_20160706000000.gif


进不去JTWC网站,这是向日葵卫星拍摄的云图(070600Z)
WDPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)
WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 613 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT, SYMMETRICAL, AND
DISPLAYING ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS AS THE EYE EXPANDED TO 16 NM.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF CLUSTERED DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW. IT IS ALSO
DRIFTING OVER VERY WARM SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. STY 02W IS BEING
STEERED NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. STY 02W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN TAIWAN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
NEAR-TERM AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. SOME
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS OUTFLOW DECREASES IN
RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. AFTER LANDFALL
OVER NORTHERN TAIWAN BEFORE TAU 48, STY 02W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY AND WEAKEN FURTHER DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO WITHIN THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STY NEPARTAK IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE
STEERING RIDGE AXIS AND TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF
CHINA. LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND PASSAGE
OVER COOLER WATER WILL RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST
SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LOCATION
AND TIMING OF THE TRACK AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. GIVEN THIS SPREAD
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[风王2012于2016-07-06 11:04编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +8
  • spidyl2009
    贡献值 8
    优秀帖
    2016-07-12 14:32
我们相识在冬季。
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颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2016-07-06 18:50
02W 預報理由翻譯帖 #14 — 七月六日十七時(060900Z)
1. 供氣象從業員使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
超級颱風02W(尼伯特)集結在臺北之東南約509海里,過去六小時以18節向西北偏西移動。現時的位置是基於最近來自關島和東京機構的風眼衛星定位,以及一幅協調世界時06日05時50分的特別微波探測成像儀(Special Sensor Microwave Imager — SSMI)圖像,信心良好。150節的強度與來自多所機構的主觀德沃夏克強度估值一致。受惠於低垂直風切變、沿途非常温暖的海水和強勁的雙向高空流出通道,超級颱風02W於過去六小時持續增強。在深厚的副熱帶高壓脊邊緣,系統繼續在其引導下朝西北快速移動。

3. 預報理由
A. 基於最近數值模式的預測路徑調整趨勢,以及現時對主導駛流的高壓脊形態作出的分析,預測路徑向西和南稍作調整。現預期較為顯著的地形影響令延伸時段的預測強度下降至消散的級別。

B. 預測未來48小時,超級颱風02W將位於上述的副熱帶高壓脊邊緣,受其引導下繼續大致向西北移動,趨向臺灣中部。短期內環境因素將大致維持良好,抑制了大幅減弱的可能。然而,高空流出配置的轉換,或意料之外的結構改變(如眼牆置換週期),仍然有機會引致登陸前的一些減弱。未來36至48小時間,系統將於橫過臺灣時出現減弱,其後進入中國大陸時再次減弱。屆時,預期系統的環流將繞過高壓脊線,北轉並進一步移入內陸。雖然數值模式預報稍作調整,短期內共識大體良好,令該時段的路徑預測信心頗高。

C. 在預報延伸時段,超級颱風02W將繼續橫過內陸並越過高壓脊線。由於現預料系統將長時間位於陸上,其將很可能於未來120小時內消散。數值模式繼續就北轉的速度和緊緻度呈現分歧,然而大多數都預測系統環流於陸上停留過久而消散。基於上述提到的分歧,延伸時段內的路徑預測信心低迷。

(香港/ 北京時間為協調世界時加八小時)

图片:wp0216.gif

图片:02W_060600sams.jpg

图片:02W BD.gif

图片:02W EIR.gif


WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)
WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 509 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 060550Z SSMI
IMAGE, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 150 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. STY 02W HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS, AIDED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM
WATER, AND VIGOROUS DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO TRACK QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE
AND CURRENT ANALYSIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE ORIENTATION. FORECAST
INTENSITIES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE HAVE DECREASED TO THE DISSIPATION
THRESHOLD DUE TO AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN LAND INTERACTION.
   B. STY 02W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL TAIWAN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE IN THE NEAR-TERM,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. HOWEVER, A SHIFT
IN THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OR UNANTICIPATED STRUCTURAL
CHANGES, SUCH AS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, COULD STILL YIELD
SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES TAIWAN BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, AND AGAIN AS IT PROGRESSES
INTO MAINLAND CHINA AFTER TAU 48. THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
TURN POLEWARD AND MOVE FURTHER INLAND AS IT ROUNDS THE STEERING
RIDGE AXIS AFTER TAU 48. WHILE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY, IT IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STY 02W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING OVER LAND AS IT ROUNDS THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF TIME THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD, DISSIPATION NOW APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR BY TAU
120. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING THE SPEED AND
TIGHTNESS OF THE POLEWARD TURN, BUT NEARLY ALL DEPICT THE
CIRCULATION REMAINING INLAND LONG ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE. GIVEN THE
NOTED MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2016-07-06 19:00编辑了帖子]

图片

1条评分, 贡献值 +9
  • spidyl2009
    贡献值 9
    优秀帖
    2016-07-12 14:37
颱風若只如初見。
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