海外追风者
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-12-12
  • 最后登录2017-04-25
  • 粉丝82
  • 关注66
  • 发帖数1117
  • 来自
阅读:2082回复:22

[追击雷暴]美国中部5.7-5.10强对流过程讨论帖,俄州出现EF4级强龙卷,已确认:EF4:1 EF3:4 EF2:4 EF1:11 EF0:15

楼主#
更多 发布于:2016-05-09 04:48
Tornado Watch镇楼。

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH
   TX...TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   STORMS.  ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE WEAKENING.


   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
   WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALVA OKLAHOMA.  FOR
   A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).


   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
[beta于2016-05-14 13:34编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
  • beta
    威望 3
    优秀帖
    2016-05-09 12:23
  • beta
    金钱 3
    优秀帖
    2016-05-09 12:23
喜欢0 评分2
海外追风者
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-12-12
  • 最后登录2017-04-25
  • 粉丝82
  • 关注66
  • 发帖数1117
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2016-05-09 04:51
由于SPC前两次预报严重失准,最后以皮鸭告终。本次表示先持观望态度。

...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A FEW TORNADOES WITH A
   COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
   CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF
   NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
   SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE. THE
   FIRST CHANGE IS TO TRIM THE 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY FROM
   NCNTRL KS WHERE INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
   LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH. HAVE DRAWN A SIGNIFICANT HATCHED AREA ACROSS
   THE ENTIRE 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY WHERE A COUPLE STRONG
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
   EVENING. THE LATEST RAP HAS DEVELOPED MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS
   WRN OK AND SCNTRL KS WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 2500
   J/KG RANGE. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP SEVERAL DISCRETE
   STORMS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REPEAT INITIATION
   WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
   A STRONG TORNADO WILL BE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN
   THE 22Z TO 02Z WINDOW FROM BETWEEN LAWTON AND ALTUS EXTENDING NWD TO
   BETWEEN WOODWARD AND ENID TO MEDICINE LODGE AND GREAT BEND KS.
   ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE THE ENHANCED RISK FROM NE
   KS WHERE TODAY'S CONVECTION HAS IMPEDED DESTABILIZATION. HAVE
   FOCUSED THE SIGNIFICANT HAIL HATCHED AREA FROM WRN OK NWD INTO WRN
   AND CNTRL KS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   IS CURRENTLY PRESENT.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
海外追风者
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-12-12
  • 最后登录2017-04-25
  • 粉丝82
  • 关注66
  • 发帖数1117
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2016-05-09 11:30
科州5.7号Wray龙卷风评级EF2
顺带一提昨天5.7号科罗拉多州Wray附近的一个龙卷风。雷达上强烈旋转持续不是很久,但是看了Twitter/Favebook/Youtube的一些照片和视频,实在壮观。今天当地NWS评价为EF2



RATING:                 EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    130 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  8 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   440 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0


START DATE:             MAY 07 2016
START TIME:             551 PM MDT
START LOCATION:         2 N WRAY


END DATE:               MAY 07 2016
END TIME:               616 PM MDT
END LOCATION:           10 NNE WRAY


TORNADO PATH WAS ONLY SURVEYED BETWEEN 2 AND 5 MILES NORTH OF
WRAY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 385. TORNADO LIKELY CONTINUED
WELL NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WRAY BUT LACK OF ROADS PREVENTED FURTHER
SURVEY. THREE RESIDENCES AND TWO BUSINESSES NORTH OF WRAY WERE
IMPACTED...MAJORITY OF TRACK WAS OVER OPEN COUNTRY.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
beta
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2012-01-05
  • 最后登录2017-05-24
  • 粉丝147
  • 关注107
  • 发帖数4869
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2016-05-09 15:16

图片:day1otlk_1200.gif


图片:day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif


本次强对流活动过程仍然弱于预报,仅有少数弱龙卷出现,冰雹最大直径3英寸。而明天虽然SPC仍然维持着ENH的评级,但是对于龙卷活动已经不是那么看好。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
海外追风者
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-12-12
  • 最后登录2017-04-25
  • 粉丝82
  • 关注66
  • 发帖数1117
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2016-05-10 05:58
下午一回家打开GR2就是惊喜。两个相连的TOR周边没有SVR,没等雷达显示就知道有大货
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
海外追风者
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-12-12
  • 最后登录2017-04-25
  • 粉丝82
  • 关注66
  • 发帖数1117
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2016-05-10 06:06
Murray County, OK大型龙卷风
OMG终于有大的了

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE HICKORY AND ROFF AREAS...
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PONTOTOC...NORTHEASTERN MURRAY AND EAST CENTRAL GARVINCOUNTIES...
AT 454 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF SULPHUR...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE HICKORY AND ROFF AREAS. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
[海外追风者于2016-05-10 06:10编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
beta
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2012-01-05
  • 最后登录2017-05-24
  • 粉丝147
  • 关注107
  • 发帖数4869
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2016-05-10 11:23

图片:today.gif

图片:CiDQZRdU4AAzNCV.jpg


图片:CiC3GY7UoAANgru.jpg


今天雷暴活动的区域似乎和SPC预报的完全不一样,主要仍然发生在OK KS NE三州,而预报的对流活动中心阿肯色几乎啥都没有,龙卷风报告也比昨天要多,不过看了一下除了楼上的那个基本上以较弱龙卷为主。第二张图是追风者拍到的楼上Sulphur龙卷风的风毁,看起来挺强的,树木都被剥皮。图中的龙卷为正在减弱的Sulphur龙卷。而第三张照片是该龙卷形成不久的摸样(此处有误,第三张图应为Katie-Wynnewood附近的龙卷巅峰时期的摸样,不是后来的Sulphur龙卷)
[beta于2016-05-11 12:09编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
beta
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2012-01-05
  • 最后登录2017-05-24
  • 粉丝147
  • 关注107
  • 发帖数4869
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2016-05-10 11:26

图片:CiDJQX_VAAI0QDF.jpg


另外今天冰雹活动也非常可观,有两个4英寸级别的冰雹报告,最大的达到了4.25英寸(10.8厘米),已经是很巨大的级别。
[beta于2016-05-10 13:14编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
beta
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2012-01-05
  • 最后登录2017-05-24
  • 粉丝147
  • 关注107
  • 发帖数4869
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2016-05-10 11:36

图片:CiD7WzaUUAATd-0.jpg


NWS Norman已经为今天俄州的龙卷风制作了临时路径图,,,责任区内大约有5个龙卷
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
beta
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2012-01-05
  • 最后登录2017-05-24
  • 粉丝147
  • 关注107
  • 发帖数4869
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2016-05-10 13:41

图片:QQ图片20160510134352.png

图片:QQ图片20160510134424.png


才出来的一个航拍,仅仅拍到了少数一部分。从这个房屋的风毁来看EF3似乎可以保底。另外该龙卷目前已造成2人死亡
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
上一页
游客

返回顶部