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[定期翻译]欧中官网:世纪厄尔尼诺登顶 历史记录大量改写

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更多 发布于:2015-12-19 13:39
ECWMF:Records tumble as El Nino peaks
17 December 2015

图片:nino1.png



El Nino conditions in the central Pacific have now reached their peak, setting new records for sea-surface temperature in the central and western equatorial Pacific.The current El Nino event is expected to decline fairly rapidly in the coming months.However, anomalies will still be large while this process takes place.


中太平洋厄尔尼诺目前已达到顶峰,创下了赤道中西太平洋新的海表温度记录。未来数月,这一厄尔尼诺事件将迅速衰减。不过,在这一过程中,海温仍将偏高得厉害。


An El Nino event is a prolonged period of abnormally high sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean.



厄尔尼诺事件指的是太平洋热带地区海表温度的持续异常偏高。

New records

SSTs in the NINO3.4 region in October were already very close to record-high values. During November they increased further as a delayed response to a westerly wind burst in October.The resulting peak in SSTs has broken monthly mean records in the NINO3.4 region:

早在 十月份,Nino3.4区的海表温度已经很接近有记录以来的最高值。作为十月一次西风爆发的延迟反应,这里的海温在十一月继续攀升。最终,海表温度达到过程最高值,打破了Nino3.4区的月平均历史记录。
  • the highest ever recorded absolute SST value (29.6 °C, breaking the record of 29.4 °C set in January 1983, and the November record of 29.3 °C set in 1997)
  • and the highest ever anomaly (3.0 °C, compared to 2.8 °C in January 1983)


The monthly mean December SST is also likely to be a record high, ahead of both 1982 and 1997.

  • Nino3.4区最高海温29.6℃,超过1983年一月记录29.4℃及1997年11月记录29.3℃;Nino3.4区最高海温29.6℃,超过1983年一月记录29.4℃及1997年11月记录29.3℃;
  • 有史以来最高正距平:3.0℃,超过1983年1月的2.8℃;


十二月平均海面温度也极有可能打破1982年和1997年的记录。


图片:nino2.png


Average sea-surface temperature anomalies in November 2015. The chart shows sea-surface temperature anomalies compared to the 1981–2009 average.
2015年十一月平均海表温度距平,以1981-2009年平均值为基础作比较。

Records have also been broken in the western-central Pacific: the monthly mean NINO4 SST exceeded 30 °C for the first time, reaching 30.3 °C and beating the previous record of 29.9 °C set in June this year.
In terms of anomalies, the record prior to 2015 in the NINO4 area was 1.3 °C, set in 2009. The modest size of this previous record underlines how stable ocean temperatures are in this part of the Pacific. The NINO4 anomaly this November was 1.7 °C, a significant increase on the previous record.
SST analyses become less precise going back in time, but the size of the anomalies in NINO4 and NINO3.4 means we are fairly confident that these are record values for the whole of the observational period back to 1860.



中太平洋西部的纪录也被刷新:
中太平洋西部,Nino4区月平均海温首次超过30℃,以30.3℃的峰值打破今年六月29.9℃的记录。
Nino4区海温先前(2015之前)的最大距平为1.3℃(2009),这一数字的不温不火显示出这片海域温度之稳定。但今年11月,Nino4区海温距平却达1.7℃,远超历史记录。
过往的海温纪录随时代久远而愈加不甚精确,但今年Nino3.4及Nino4区海温惊人的偏高程度,已毫无疑问成为了自1860年有观测记录以来的最高值。


图片:nino3.png


Average and observed sea-surface temperatures in NINO3.4. The chart shows the average evolution of sea-surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region based on the years 1981 to 2010 (red line) and the observed evolution since January 2015 according to two different analyses (dark and light blue lines). The difference between the red and blue lines is the sea-surface temperature anomaly.
Nino3.4区海表温度的平均值与实际观测值对比。红线为1981-2010年Nino3.4区平均海温月变化,暗蓝和亮蓝两条线为两种不同分析方法得到的2015年1月起的实际海温观测值。红蓝线之间的差异便是海表温度的异常。

In the eastern Pacific, the El Nino event is very strong but not record-breaking. The anomaly in the NINO1+2 region was 2.1°C in November, down from a peak value of about 2.9 °C in July. This is the third-strongest El Nio event in this region in the satellite-era record but still a long way behind 1982 and 1997, both of which had anomalies exceeding 4 °C.
The NINO3 anomaly for November was 2.9 °C, which is the second-highest November value on record behind 1997. In 1982/83, the NINO3 anomaly peaked at 3.3 °C in January 1983, whereas it is likely that the 2015 anomaly has already peaked. The 1997 peak anomaly was 3.6 °C.


此次厄尔尼诺事件对于东太平洋而言亦较强,但却未达“破纪录”的程度。Nino1+2区域海温距平从七月的2.9℃下降到十一月的2.1℃,是卫星年代以来此区域的第三记录,不过与1982和1997超过4℃的距平比起来仍相形见绌。
Nino3区十一月海温距平为2.9℃,为十一月第二高记录(次于1997年)。1982-1983年的厄尔尼诺事件中,Nino3区距平在83年一月达到3.3℃,然而本次强厄事件峰值已过。1997年的记录为3.6℃。


Latest forecasts
The latest forecasts suggest that SST anomalies in the central Pacific have now reached their peak and will start to decline. Although there is some uncertainty related to the winds, the forecasts do suggest that the amplitude of El Nino is likely to decline fairly rapidly in the early part of 2016, with NINO3.4 cooling to 1 °C by April.



最新预报显示,中太平洋海温异常已达到顶峰,即将开始走下坡路。虽然与赤道地区风的预测有关的某些不确定性仍旧存在,但预报确信厄尔尼诺的强度将在2016年初十分迅速地衰减。预料到四月时,Nino3.4区距平即下降到1℃左右。


图片:nino5.png


ECMWF plume of NINO3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies. The chart shows the predicted sea-surface temperature anomalies over the NINO3.4 region produced on 1 December from the ECMWF model. Ensemble forecasts account for the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of weather and ocean parameters by producing a set of possible outcomes.
12月1日,EC模式对Nino3.4区的海温距平预报,集合预报的结果考虑了海气参数的多种内在不确定因素。

Forecasts for NINO1+2 suggest that, although anomalies will continue to decline until February, after that there is considerable uncertainty.

Nino1.2区的预报显示,虽然二月之前,距平将趋于正常,但后续海温变化不确定性仍极大。



图片:nino6.png


ECMWF plume of NINO1+2 sea-surface temperature anomalies. The chart shows the predicted sea-surface temperature anomalies over the NINO1+2 region produced on 1 December from the ECMWF model.
12月1日,EC模式对Nino1.2区的海温距平预报
[追寻风之足迹于2015-12-19 22:48编辑了帖子]
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我想起了当年西马仑在南海北部的苟延残喘,心底泛起一种不可名状的落寞。夕阳已洒落西墙,秋风撩起,枝头残花飘落下,似乎在为这位走向末路的王者壮行。
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