luhang
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[报文翻译][2015] 1522号"彩虹"(22W.MUJIGAE) JTWC预报理由翻译帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2015-09-30 22:22
翻译信息表:
                   
报数
                               
时间
                               
翻译情况
                               
翻译者
                               
楼层
                               
#TCFA
                               
0930-0530Z
                             
全文翻译
                             
luhang
                             
1
                             
#1
                             
1001-0300Z
                             
全文翻译
                             
风王2012
                             
2
                             
#2
                             
1001-0900Z
                             
全文翻译
                             
颱風巨爵
                             
3
                             
#3
                             
1001-1500Z
                             
全文翻译
                             
颱風巨爵
                             
4
                             
#4
                             
1001-2100Z
                             
全文翻译
                             
luhang
                             
5
                             
#5
                             
1002-0300Z
                             
全文翻译
                             
颱風巨爵
                             
7
                             
#6
                             
1002-0900Z
                             
全文翻译
                             
颱風巨爵
                             
8
                             
#7
                             
1002-1500Z
                             
全文翻译
                             
风王2012
                             
9
                             
#8
                             
1002-2100Z
                             
全文翻译
                             
颱風巨爵
                             
10
                             
#9
                             
1003-0300Z
                             
全文翻译
                             
风王2012
                             
11
                             
#10
                             
1003-0900Z
                             
全文翻译
                             
颱風巨爵
                             
12
                             
#11 - #14
                             
1003-1500Z
1003-2100Z
1004-0300Z
1004-0900Z
                             
无人翻译
                             
-
                             
-
                             
#15 (Final Warning)
                             
1004-1500Z
                             
无人翻译
                             
-
                             
-
 
  
1. 由于该热带系统未来发展态势良好,且可能影响我国华南沿海以及南海海区,为了从头翻译,所以特开此贴。
2. 本贴翻译JTWC报文,时间以协调世界時的作准。
3. 翻译前为防止重复翻译原则上需要预约,可以直接回帖预约或发私信至开帖人预约。
4. 为信息展示需要,请将报文原文和译文放置于同一楼层。若回帖预约的,请将翻译放在预约帖。
5. 有时间的童鞋建议全文翻译,我们也鼓励抓要点进行简单翻译,简单翻译的要点: 发报时定位,过去的移动速度、结构、强度、环境场,未来的强度、路径、环境场,数值的预测。
6. 本帖不允许发与翻译和预约不相符的内容,否则将被视为灌水删帖处理。
7. 翻译中若若有其他任何疑惑,欢迎加入翻译小组QQ群152955236加入我们的讨论。

组织规则:
第一条:预报理由翻译贴是对JTWC Reasoning文件进行翻译的专贴。由于气旋的Reasoning文件翻译量不定,因此需要一定的人事组织,参与组织或翻译的会员将获得一定程度的奖励。
第二条:任何会员都可对任何JTWC升格的系统开贴,但原则上建议只对我国有影响的系统开帖。对不影响我国的系统,不建议单独开贴,翻译者可在追击贴或深度贴内进行,版主将按第八条之标准酌情加分。
第三条:开帖人默认为组织人,负责更新首楼的翻译信息表,并履行好翻译工作的责任,自己开帖让别人翻译的行为将被谴责及追究。如遇多人开贴,则同“抢扰动”规则,只保留一个帖子。若开帖人无时间组织,可委托管理团队组织。
第四条:翻译的模式有两种,分别为全部翻译、要点翻译。实践中,不建议连续全文翻译,可针对预报理由变动进行要点总结。
第五条:内容发布时,报文原文、中文翻译必须齐全。
第六条:开贴加分: 开帖人翻译一篇或以上报文,威望+5;否则削减为威望+2。
第七条:组织加分: 开设翻译信息表,贡献值+1;维护翻译信息表至台风结束,根据台风维持时间长短,追加贡献值2点,威望3~8点。
第八条:内容加分: 全文翻译,视翻译质量加贡献值6-9点;要点翻译,视翻译质量贡献值2-5点。对单个台风,翻译5~9报者,追加贡献值5点,翻译10报以上者,追加贡献值10点。
第九条:使用翻译机进行翻译的,不予加分。
第十条:台风论坛管理团队对本条例有最终解释权。
翻译信息表见附件
[颱風巨爵于2016-07-16 18:31编辑了帖子]
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22W.xls (13KB)  6 2015-10-05 13:05
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回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
我在论坛的当年今日:一年前,还满怀追风热情的我当上了论坛版主。如今卸任在即,希望有朝一日我能满怀激情再度归来!
当时等级 强台风
——1-21
luhang
论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2015-09-30 22:23
90W预报理由翻译帖 TCFA 9月30日13时30分(09300530Z)
1.在未来12至24小时内,一个热带气旋很可能在北纬11.4度,东经131.4度至北纬15.4度,东经121.6度的直径250海里的矩形区域内形成。但以目前的资料来看,系统还不足以(令联合台风警报中心)编号并发出热带气旋警报。目前该区域的风速估计约为15至20节。300300Z的气象卫星显示系统的(底层)旋转中心位于北纬11.8度,东经130.4度。目前系统正以14节的速度向西偏北方向移动。
2.点评[备注]:主对流区由原先的北纬11.1度,东经131.8度附近转移至目前的北纬11.8度,东经130.4度附近,即位于菲律宾马尼拉东南约575 海里的西北太平洋洋面上。动画多光谱卫星图像显示出一个巩固程度低的底层环流中心,但中层环流中心已经开始卷绕对流带。300053Z的ASCAT风场扫描显示出北侧拥有15-20节且迷你的半个风圈。高层分析显示系统所处环境改善,10至15节的东风垂直风切变【有利于系统流出(DIFFLUENT FLOW?)】。数值预报显示,系统将继续发展并趋向菲律宾。
目前最大持续海平面持续风速(1分钟持续)估计在15到20节,最低海平面气压约为1006百帕。系统在未来24小时内发展为热带气旋的概率高。
3.这个警报可能会在010530Z补发,也可能升级为热带气旋警报或取消热带气旋形成警报。
 
与本报有关的图片:
1、TRORICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(热带气旋形成警报)

图片:79_93271_4bddfb1f144ed2e.gif


2、气象卫星(可见光)图像

图片:20150930.0530.himawari-8.vis.90W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.11.8N.130.4E.100pc.jpg


3、093000Z左右的ASCAT风场扫描

图片:WMBds256.png


4、高层分析(垂直风切变)

图片:wgmsshr-5.gif


 
WTPN21 PGTW 300530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4N 131.4E TO 15.4N 121.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 130.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
131.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 575 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING AND WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING. A 300053Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS THE OUTER PERIPHERIES OF AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT
WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EASTERLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010530Z.
//
NNNN
[luhang于2015-10-01 17:27编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +7
回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
我在论坛的当年今日:一年前,还满怀追风热情的我当上了论坛版主。如今卸任在即,希望有朝一日我能满怀激情再度归来!
当时等级 强台风
——1-21
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风王2012
资深会员-热带辐合带
资深会员-热带辐合带
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2楼#
发布于:2015-10-01 10:51
22W预报理由翻译帖 #01 10月1日11时 (100103Z)
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析
热带低气压22W,位于菲律宾马尼拉以东约267海里,其在过去6小时内以每小时18海里的速度向西北方向移动。多光谱卫星云图(MSI)动画继续显示系统底层环流西部带状对流和东部稀少的对流。302157Z(北京时间1日6时,笔者注)的windsat图显示在没有雨水影响下,LLCC北部的对流区域拥有25节的风力。302312Z(北京时间1日7时,笔者注)的SSMIS显示了系统西侧有深对流,这同时也支持了我们对当前定位的中度信心。初始强度的确立是基于RJTD和PGTW分析而出的1.5的DT值。上层环流分析显示系统拥有良好的径向流出和低风切,这有利于系统的进一步强化。系统目前正沿着副热带高压的南部集结在琉球群岛附近(原文出错,琉球群岛位于中国东海,与22W当前位置相去甚远)。
3.预报理由。
A.这是22W的第一报,我们为其设立了预报理由。
B.22W将在未来72小时内向西北方向移动。我们认为未来24小时内气象条件的好转和保持良好状态的海温和垂直风切变的降低仍然是有利条件。其将在24小时后快速横过北菲律宾并在36小时后重新出现在中国南海,并继续被副热带高压西南边缘制约向西北方向移动。72小时后,我们预测其将达到巅峰强度55节。
C.在延伸预报期内,我们预测22W将略有增强并横过雷州半岛进入北部湾东北部。在延伸预报期的末尾,我们预测其将再次登陆越南北部的红河并由于陆地的影响而消散。我们的预报综合多个预报模型,但由于预报模型有限,因而我们对预报的信心很低。


图片:79_93271_c892281c9416dcc.gif

图片:22W_302332sams.jpg

图片:WMBas62_noaa.png



图片:20151001.0117.metopa.x.89_1deg.22WTWENTYTWO.25kts-1004mb-137N-1255E.100pc.jpg



(抱歉,找不到图片,使用两小时后的AMSUB扫描图代替)

WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
267 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW
BANDING CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE. A 302157Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWS SOME
25 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC THAT ARE NOT RAIN
CONTA MINATED AND A 302312Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION ON
THE WESTERN SIDE AND PROVIDES MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DT OF 1.5 FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW IN ADDITION TO LOW VWS AND THUS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TD 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR ANCHORED OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 22W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
EXPECT CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24 AS SSTS AND VWS
REMAIN FAVORABLE. BY TAU 24, TD 22W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN LUZON AND
QUICKLY TRACK THOUGH THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINES, RE-EMERGING IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 36. TD 22W WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH EAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 72, EXPECT TD 22W TO INTENSITY TO A PEAK
OF 55 KNOTS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, EXPECT LIMITED
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THOUGH THE LEIZHOU
PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF TONKIN. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST, TD 22W WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM,
NORTH OF HANOI AND BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[风王2012于2015-10-01 11:51编辑了帖子]
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  • iam最小值
    贡献值 6
    集结在琉球群岛附近的是副高脊,原文并没有错
    2015-10-07 09:10
我们相识在冬季。
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颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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3楼#
发布于:2015-10-01 10:58
22W 預報理由翻譯帖 #2 — 十月一日十七時(100109Z)
1. 供氣象學家使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
熱帶低氣壓22W集結在菲律賓馬尼拉以東約175海哩,過去六小時以16節向西北偏西移動。動態多頻衛星圖像(MSI)顯示形成中的雲帶有所穩固,並更緊密地捲入一個被雲層遮蓋的低層環流中心。系統目前的位置是基於上述的 MSI 動畫,而我們信心頗低。目前30節的強度是基於 RJTD 的德沃夏克估值,亦反映出系統有所改善的情況。 高空分析顯示系統處於具有接近輻射式流出和低(5至10節)垂直風切變的區域中,因此有利其進一步增強。此氣旋正沿著北方副熱帶高壓脊(副高)的南緣移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 預報理由對比上次沒有明顯改變
B. 在副高的駛流引導下,熱帶低氣壓22W會在預報期內繼續向西北偏西移動。有利的高空條件以及菲律賓海温暖的海表温度,會在未來12小時令熱帶低氣壓增強為一熱帶風暴。然而,其後由於受呂宋山脈的影響,系統在進入馬尼拉灣以西、南中國海的温暖海域前將減弱為一熱帶低氣壓。持續有利的高空條件以及温暖的海表温度將驅使系統進一步增強,於72小時後達到70節的巔峰強度。
C. 在預報延伸時段,熱帶低氣壓22W會橫過雷州半島,短暫掠過東京灣(即北部灣)北部並於中越邊境以北作最後登陸。地形影響將令氣旋急速衰退,於120小時後減弱至弱熱帶低氣壓的強度。持續預報模式達成頗緊密的共識,令聯合颱風警報中心對路徑預測抱有高度信心。

图片:wp2215.gif

图片:22W_010532sams.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
175 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE SOLID AND HAVE
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS OBSCURED BY
CLOUD COVER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM RJTD AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 22W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, TD 22W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, WILL STRENGTHEN THE TD TO A TROPICAL
STORM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 12, INTERACTION WITH
THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF LUZON WILL WEAKEN IT BACK TO A TD BEFORE IT
RE-EMERGES BACK ON THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA JUST WEST
OF MANILA BAY. CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION
TO THE WARM SSTS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING TO 70
KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TD 22W WILL DRAG THROUGH THE
LEIZHOU PENINSULA AND BRIEFLY CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF
OF TONKIN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF THE
VIETNAM-CHINA BORDER. LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
CYCLONE, REDUCING IT TO A WEAK TD BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2015-10-01 17:13编辑了帖子]
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颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2015-10-01 17:14
22W 預報理由翻譯帖 #3 — 十月一日廿三時(100115Z)
1. 供氣象學家使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
熱帶風暴22W集結在菲律賓馬尼拉之東北偏東約105海哩,過去六小時以15節向西北移動。動態色調強化紅外線衛星圖像(EIR)顯示形成中的雲帶有所穩固,並更緊密地捲入一個低層環流中心。一幅下午五時四十五分(010945Z)的特別微波探測成像儀/測深儀(Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder — SSMIS)微波掃描突顯出一道深厚、連貫、自西北向東南呈弧形的雲帶。系統目前的位置是基於菲律賓科技部門(Department of Science and Technology — DOST)的雷達綜合反射率動畫,所以我們信心良好。目前35節的強度是基於客觀的德沃夏克估值,與微波圖上的形態一致,並反映出系統有所改善的情況。 高空分析顯示熱帶風暴22W處於具有良好輻射式流出和低(5至10節)垂直風切變的區域中。此氣旋正沿著北方副熱帶高壓脊(副高)的南緣移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 預報理由對比上次沒有明顯改變
B. 在副高的駛流引導下,熱帶風暴22W會在預報期內繼續向西北偏西移動。有利的高空條件以及菲律賓海温暖的海表温度,會在未來6小時令熱帶風暴在 奎松省 奧羅拉省巴萊爾 (筆者按:巴萊爾不在奎松省,而在奧羅拉省;預測路徑圖顯示風暴於巴萊爾附近登陸,故作修改)附近登陸前進一步增強。然而,登陸後由於受呂宋山脈的影響,系統在進入馬尼拉灣以北、南中國海的温暖海域前將減弱為一熱帶低氣壓。持續有利的高空條件以及温暖的海表温度將驅使系統進一步增強,於66小時後達到70節的巔峰強度,然後在雷州半島作第二次登陸。
C. 在預報延伸時段,熱帶風暴22W會橫過雷州半島,短暫掠過東京灣(即北部灣)東北部並於中越邊境以北作最後登陸。地形影響將令氣旋急速衰退,於120小時後減弱至弱熱帶低氣壓的強度。持續預報模式達成頗緊密的共識,令聯合颱風警報中心對路徑預測抱有高度信心。

图片:wp2215.gif

图片:22W_011132sair.jpg


附上11時左右的綜合雷達圖像作參考之用;另外找不到8時,非常抱歉還請見諒!

图片:DOST.png


WDPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE SOLID
AND HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
010945Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS HIGHLIGHTS A DEEP CONTINUOUS BAND
ARCING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A RADAR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM THE PHILIPPINES
DOST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES, IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE, AND
REFLECTS THE IMPROVED CONDITION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TS 22W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, TS 22W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE TS OVER
THE NEXT SIX HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR BALER, QUEZON PROVINCE.
AFTER LANDFALL, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
LUZON WILL WEAKEN IT BACK TO A TD BEFORE IT RE-EMERGES BACK ON THE
WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA JUST NORTH OF MANILA BAY.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE WARM
SSTS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING TO 70 KNOTS BY
TAU 66 BEFORE MAKING A SECONDARY LANDFALL OVER THE LEIZHOU
PENINSULA.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS 22W WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
LEIZHOU PENINSULA AND BRIEFLY CROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF TONKIN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF THE
VIETNAM-CHINA BORDER. LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
CYCLONE, REDUCING IT TO A WEAK TD BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2015-10-02 15:10编辑了帖子]
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luhang
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2015-10-02 06:32
22W预报理由翻译帖 #04 10月2日05时 (100121Z)
1.供气象学者使用。
2.近6小时总结与分析。
热带低压(TD)22W(Twenty-two[注:当时已命名彩虹]),目前位于菲律宾首都马尼拉东北偏北方约59 海里的吕宋岛上。过去六小时系统以13节的速度向西偏北方向移动。动画增强红外卫星图像(IR)显示过去中心持续有对流爆出并覆盖LLCC,并逐渐翻越吕宋岛的马德雷山脉。大雅台的雷达令我们对当前系统定位的信心中等,且告诉我们系统受吕宋岛山区的地形摩擦影响,强度已稍为下降。高层分析显示TD 22W处在一个接近极向流出的地区,且垂直风切变低至10至20节。TD 22W将沿着副热带高压南部向偏西方向移动。
3.预报理由。
A.预报理由相对于上一报没有改变。
B.在整个预测期内, TD 22W将继续受副热带高压的引导,一直向西北方向移动。预料系统将在吕宋中部逐渐减弱,但进入南海后将重新加强[注:RE-INTENSIFICATION是法语]。系统将在12小时内FLAT LINING。有利的高层条件加上高海水潜热(OHC)以及高海表温度(SST)将会使TD 22W在南海快速加强,并在48小时内达到巅峰60节。在未来48和72之间,TD 22W将会穿过雷州半岛,随后进入东京湾[注:即北部湾],在此期间,系统受陆地摩擦以及低OHC的影响将逐渐减弱。
C.在延长预报期内,TD 22W将再次登陆中越边境,并开始迅速减弱。直到预测期结束时,系统受陆地摩擦影响完全消散。我们与数值模式之间依旧保持紧密共识,我们(JTWC)对自己的路径预测信心度高。

图片:79_26427_5667cd1793c05ce.gif

图片:20151001.2100.himawari-8.ir.22W.TWENTYTWO.30kts.1000mb.15.5N.121.4E.100pc.jpg



WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 59 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO AN LLCC THAT IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE IN EASTERN LUZON. THE TAGAYTAY RADAR IN
ADDITION TO THE SATELLITE LOOP GIVES MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DROPPED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE FRICTIONAL FORCES OF THE MOUNTAIN
RANGE AND REFLECTED OF THE LIMITED OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 22W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF VWS. TD 22W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 22W WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE STR, TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO DECAY
AS IT TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL LUZON, WITH SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS BACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE NET RESULT IS A
FLAT-LINING IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 12. FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO OHC AND SSTS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW TD 22W TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE,
PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS BY TAU 48. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, TD 22W IS
EXPECT TO TRACK THROUGH THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA, AND INTO THE GULF OF
TONKIN, SLIGHTLY DECAYING THE SYSTEM DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER OHC VALUES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TD 22W WILL TRACK THOUGH THE
VIETNAM-CHINA BOARD AND BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DECAY. EXPECT COMPLETE
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[luhang于2015-10-03 16:32编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 0.0 贡献值 +6
  • iam最小值
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    展词
    2015-10-07 09:16
  • iam最小值
    贡献值 6
    RE-INTENSIFICATION并不是法语,re前缀是“重新”的意思,是一个扩展词
    2015-10-07 09:16
回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
我在论坛的当年今日:一年前,还满怀追风热情的我当上了论坛版主。如今卸任在即,希望有朝一日我能满怀激情再度归来!
当时等级 强台风
——1-21
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幸福的Kian
热带风暴
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发布于:2015-10-02 10:16
luhang锛1.供气象学者使用。
2.近6小时总结与分析。
热带低压(TD)22W(Twenty-two[注:当时已命名彩虹]),目前位于菲律宾首都马尼拉东北偏北方约59 海里的吕宋岛上。一直追到西—以13节的速度向西北过去六小时系统以13节的速度...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
FLAT LINING 可译为减弱。
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颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2015-10-02 12:47
22W 預報理由翻譯帖 #5 — 十月二日十一時(100203Z)
1. 供氣象學家使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
熱帶低氣壓22W(彩虹)集結在菲律賓馬尼拉之西北約110海哩,過去六小時以16節向西北偏西移動。動態多頻衛星圖像(MSI)顯示,形成中的雲帶捲入一個現評估位於三描禮士山脈北端上空的低層環流中心。系統目前的位置是基於菲律賓大氣地球物理和天文服務管理局(Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration — PAGASA)的雷達以及 MSI 動畫,而我們信心一般。目前強度維持在30節,這反映了系統受呂宋地形摩擦的影響和該區域備用的觀測資料。高空分析顯示熱帶低氣壓22W處於具有接近輻射式流出和10至20節垂直風切變的區域中。熱帶低氣壓22W正沿著東北方副熱帶高壓脊(副高)西延部分的南緣移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 預報理由對比上次沒有明顯改變
B. 在副高駛流的持續引導下,熱帶低氣壓彩虹會在預報期內向西北移動。隨著熱帶低氣壓彩虹橫過南中國海温暖的海域上空,良好的赤向流出以及低垂直風切變將容許系統於48小時後增強至60節的巔峰強度。當熱帶低氣壓22W橫過雷州半島並進入東京灣(即北部灣),由於該區域的海洋熱含量較低,預期系統在72小時後於中越邊境以北登陸時將稍為衰退。
C. 在預報延伸時段,地形影響將令熱帶低氣壓22W急速衰退;其亦會因副高脊線和摩擦力影響而稍為北轉。熱帶低氣壓彩虹在96小時後將已完全消散。持續預報模式維持達成非常緊密的共識,令聯合颱風警報中心對路徑預測抱有高度信心。

图片:wp2215.gif

图片:22W_011732sair.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (MUJIGAE)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110
NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN LLCC THAT IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED OVER THE
NORTHERN TIP OF THE ZAMBALES MOUNTAINS. PAGASA RADARS IN ADDITION TO
MSI LOOP GIVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY HELD AT 30 KNOTS TO REFLECT THE
FRICTIONAL AFFECTS OF LUZON AND SPARE OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA.  
UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 22W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH
NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF VWS. TD 22W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN EXTENSION OF A STR TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TD MUJIGAE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE STR, TRACKING TO
THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TD MUJIGAE TRACKS
THROUGH THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
60 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AS TD 22W TRACKS THROUGH THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA,
AND INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN, WITH ITS LOWER OHC VALUES, EXPECT
SLIGHT DECAY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL ON THE VIETNAM-CHINA
BOARDER BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 22W WILL DECAY RAPIDLY DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AND TAKE A SLIGHT POLEWARD TURN DUE TO THE STR AXIS
AND FRICTIONAL FORCES. TD MUJIGAE WILL BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY
TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2015-10-02 16:44编辑了帖子]
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颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2015-10-02 12:49
22W 預報理由翻譯帖 #6 — 十月二日十七時(100209Z)
1. 供氣象學家使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
熱帶風暴22W(彩虹)集結在菲律賓馬尼拉之西北約158海哩,過去六小時以9節向西北偏西移動。動態多頻衛星圖像(MSI)顯示,系統在橫過呂宋中部平原、進入南中國海後開始重新組織。系統目前的位置是基於 MSI 和外推自菲律賓大氣地球物理和天文服務管理局(Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration — PAGASA)的雷達綜合反射率動畫,而我們信心一般。目前35節的強度是基於來自 PGTW,KNES 和 RJTD 一致的德沃夏克估值。高空分析顯示熱帶風暴22W處於輕微至中等(10至20節)垂直風切變的區域中;然而,垂直風切變的影響被一股強勁赤向流出所抵消。另外,達攝氏28至29度的温暖海表温度亦會加強系統的進一步發展。此氣旋正沿著東北方副熱帶高壓脊(副高)西延部分的南緣移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 預報理由對比上次沒有明顯改變
B. 在副高的駛流引導下,熱帶風暴22W會繼續向西北偏西移動,在48小時後不久橫過雷州半島,並在72小時前於中國南部作最後登陸。有利的環境條件將驅使系統進一步增強,在48小時後達到65節的巔峰強度。其後,地形影響和垂直風切變上升將開始削弱系統。
C. 在預報延伸時段,地形影響將令熱帶風暴22W急速衰退;其亦會因中緯度西風槽的靠近而稍為北轉。熱帶風暴彩虹將於96小時後從陸上消散。持續預報模式維持達成非常緊密的共識,令聯合颱風警報中心對路徑預測抱有高度信心。

图片:wp2215.gif

图片:22W_020532sams.jpg


下午約二時的綜合雷達圖像

图片:DOST.png


WDPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (MUJIGAE) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO RE-CONSOLIDATE AFTER IT
EXITED INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER IT CROSSED THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OF LUZON. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND EXTRAPOLATED
FROM A RADAR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM THE PHILIPPINES PAGASA
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 22W IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY A
VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL ALSO ENHANCE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE  
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, CROSSING THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 BEFORE MAKING A FINAL LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN
CHINA PRIOR TO TAU 72. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
AFTERWARDS. LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE SYSTEM.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 22W WILL DECAY RAPIDLY DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AND TAKE A SLIGHT POLEWARD TURN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TS MUJIGAE WILL DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2015-10-02 17:08编辑了帖子]
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风王2012
资深会员-热带辐合带
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发布于:2015-10-02 22:56
22W预报理由翻译帖 #07 10月2日23时 (100215Z)
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析
热带风暴22W彩虹,位于菲律宾马尼拉西北约238海里,其在过去6小时内以每小时14海里的速度向西北偏西方向移动。红外增强卫星动画(EIR)动画显示系统正在进一步巩固增加的对流,并试图巩固加深为一个更大的环流中心。当前定位是基于红外增强卫星动画和020939Z(北京时间2日17时39分,笔者注)的 AMSU-B微波图像上半封闭的底层风眼的大致推断,我们对此只有很低的信心。初始强度评定为45节是基于KNES和PGTW一致认为22W对流深化的结果。上层环流分析表明22W附近只有轻微-中度的垂直风切变(10-20节),尽管如此,高空反气旋还为其抵消了部分风切。除此之外,较高的海洋表面温度将持续在29-30℃,这也将支持22W的进一步发展。其正在沿着副热带高压向西延伸的南部边缘移动中。
3.预报理由
A.预报理由无明显改变。
B.在整个预报期内,22W将继续在副热带高压引导下向北偏西方向移动,并将在48小时后在中国作最后登陆。在36小时内,有利的环境将促使其加强至巅峰强度60节。之后,陆地和上升的垂直风切变将迅速削弱系统,并在72小时内在中国南方消散,其残余将向北移动并入西风槽。由于各数值预报大致一致,因而我们的信心颇高。

图片:79_93271_44da688bdd3f21c.gif

图片:22W_021132sair.jpg

图片:20151002_0939_noaa18_x_89_1deg_22WMUJIGAE_35kts-996mb-165N-1191E_73pc.jpg




WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (MUJIGAE) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS  
FORMATIVE BANDS, WRAPPING INTO A LARGER CIRCULATION CENTER, DEEPENED.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
SEMI-CLOSED MICROWAVE EYE ON THE 020939Z AMSU-B PASS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE
DEEPENED CONDITION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS
22W IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY A VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 28-29
DEGREES CELSIUS WILL ALSO ENHANCE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS MUJIGAE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING
A FINAL LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA PRIOR TO TAU 48. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION,
PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, DISSIPATING OVER
SOUTHERN CHINA BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TS 22W WILL DEFLECT
NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[风王2012于2015-10-02 23:38编辑了帖子]
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