颱風巨爵
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[报文翻译][2015] 1521号"杜鹃"(21W.DUJUAN) JTWC预报理由翻译帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2015-09-24 18:01
翻译信息表:

报数

时间

翻译情况

翻译者

翻译楼层

TCFA

-

-

-

-

#1 – #10

-

-

-

-

#11

240900Z

全文翻译

颱風巨爵

1

#12

241500Z

全文翻译

颱風巨爵

2

#13

242100Z

-

-

-

#14

250300Z

全文翻译

颱風巨爵

3

#15

250900Z

全文翻译

颱風巨爵

4

#16

251500Z

全文翻译

风王2012

5

#17

252100Z

-

-

-

#18

260300Z

全文翻译

风王2012

6

#19

260900Z

全文翻译

颱風巨爵

7

#20

261500Z

全文翻译

颱風巨爵

8

#21

262100Z

-

-

-

#22

270300Z

全文翻译

风王2012

9

#23

270900Z

全文翻译

颱風巨爵

10

#24

271500Z

全文翻译

颱風巨爵

11

#25

272100Z

-

-

-

#26

280300Z

-

-

-

#27

280900Z

全文翻译

颱風巨爵

12

#28

281500Z

全文翻译

颱風巨爵

13

#29

282100Z

全文翻译

颱風巨爵

14

#30 (Final Warning)

290300Z

全文翻译

颱風巨爵

15
 
 
1. 由于该热带系统未来发展态势良好,且可能影响我国东部或东南部沿海,所以特开此贴。
2. 本贴翻译JTWC报文,时间以协调世界時的作准。
3. 翻译前为防止重复翻译原则上需要预约,可以直接回帖预约或发私信至开帖人预约。
4. 为信息展示需要,请将报文原文和译文放置于同一楼层。若回帖预约的,请将翻译放在预约帖。
5. 有时间的童鞋建议全文翻译,我们也鼓励抓要点进行简单翻译,简单翻译的要点: 发报时定位,过去的移动速度、结构、强度、环境场,未来的强度、路径、环境场,数值的预测。
6. 本帖不允许发与翻译和预约不相符的内容,否则将被视为灌水删帖处理。
7. 翻译中若若有其他任何疑惑,欢迎加入翻译小组QQ群152955236加入我们的讨论。

组织规则:
第一条:预报理由翻译贴是对JTWC Reasoning文件进行翻译的专贴。由于气旋的Reasoning文件翻译量不定,因此需要一定的人事组织,参与组织或翻译的会员将获得一定程度的奖励。
第二条:任何会员都可对任何JTWC升格的系统开贴,但原则上建议只对我国有影响的系统开帖。对不影响我国的系统,不建议单独开贴,翻译者可在追击贴或深度贴内进行,版主将按第八条之标准酌情加分。
第三条:开帖人默认为组织人,负责更新首楼的翻译信息表,并履行好翻译工作的责任,自己开帖让别人翻译的行为将被谴责及追究。如遇多人开贴,则同“抢扰动”规则,只保留一个帖子。若开帖人无时间组织,可委托管理团队组织。
第四条:翻译的模式有两种,分别为全部翻译、要点翻译。实践中,不建议连续全文翻译,可针对预报理由变动进行要点总结。
第五条:内容发布时,报文原文、中文翻译必须齐全。
第六条:开贴加分: 开帖人翻译一篇或以上报文,威望+5;否则削减为威望+2。
第七条:组织加分: 开设翻译信息表,贡献值+1;维护翻译信息表至台风结束,根据台风维持时间长短,追加贡献值2点,威望3~8点。
第八条:内容加分: 全文翻译,视翻译质量加贡献值6-9点;要点翻译,视翻译质量贡献值2-5点。对单个台风,翻译5~9报者,追加贡献值5点,翻译10报以上者,追加贡献值10点。
第九条:使用翻译机进行翻译的,不予加分。
第十条:台风论坛管理团队对本条例有最终解释权。

@风王2012,衷心感謝您為本翻譯帖捧場!同樣我要多謝 @拉姆爱推销 和 @wusifeng 對本帖的支持。
[katrina于2016-01-30 19:33编辑了帖子]
5条评分, 贡献值 +13 威望 +11
  • iam最小值
    贡献值 10
    翻译10报以上
    2015-09-30 01:38
  • 拉姆爱推销
    贡献值 2
    维持翻译信息表
    2015-09-29 12:40
  • 拉姆爱推销
    威望 6
    维持翻译信息表
    2015-09-29 12:40
  • 拉姆爱推销
    贡献值 +1
    开设翻译信息表
    2015-09-25 12:35
  • wusifeng
    威望 +5
    建议移至台风预报版
    2015-09-24 18:45
喜欢1 评分5

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颱風巨爵
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1楼#
发布于:2015-09-24 18:02
21W預報理由翻譯帖 #11 — 九月廿四日十七時(240900Z)
1. 供氣象學家使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
熱帶風暴21W(杜鵑)集結在日本沖繩嘉手納空軍基地之東南偏南約541海哩,過去六小時以4節向西南偏西移動。動態多頻衛星圖像(MSI)顯示有所加深的中央對流與緊密螺旋雲帶,正捲入一個鞏固中的低層環流中心。現時系統的位置是基於上述的 MSI 以及 PGTW 的衛星定位,所以我們信心良好。現時55節的強度,是基於系統已改善的結構,並定在所有匯報機構的德沃夏克強度估值之上。高空分析顯示,熱帶風暴21W現時處於垂直風切變有利的環境中。此外,有一點源維持著有所增強的深厚對流。熱帶風暴杜鵑正沿著深厚副熱帶高壓脊的西南緣移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 預報理由對比上次沒有改變
B. 由於系統於未來24小時會繼續鞏固,預料其將緩慢移動。在副熱帶高壓脊的駛流影響下,杜鵑會維持向西北移動。持續有利的條件將容許系統進一步增強,於72小時後達到115節的巔峰強度。
C. 隨著西環副熱帶高壓脊重掌駛流環境,熱帶風暴21W會稍為轉西移動。預期系統開始與臺灣的互動將驅使其緩慢減弱。現有的預報模式就系統近期的西北移動路徑持有整體良好共識,但在延伸時段則仍然分歧。鑑於預報短期內系統定位與路徑有不確定性,聯合颱風警報中心對路徑預測信心低迷。

图片:wp2115.gif

图片:21W_240532sams.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 541 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL
CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND HEDGED
HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 21W IS NOW LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
VWS ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A POINT-SOURCE SUSTAINING
THE ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION. TS DUJUAN IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DUJUAN WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOT BY TAU 72.
   C. TS 21W WILL SLIGHTLY TURN WESTWARD AS THE WESTERN STR ASSUMES
THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH TAIWAN.  AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE
NEAR TERM, BUT REMAINS DIVERGENCE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. DUE TO
POSITIONAL AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2015-09-24 18:07编辑了帖子]
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2楼#
发布于:2015-09-24 23:23
21W預報理由翻譯帖 #12 — 九月廿四日廿三時(241500Z)
1. 供氣象學家使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
熱帶風暴21W(杜鵑)集結在日本沖繩嘉手納空軍基地之東南偏南約538海哩,過去六小時以3節向西南偏西移動。動態色調強化紅外線衛星圖像(EIR)持續顯示維持深厚的中央對流與緊密螺旋雲帶,正捲入一個鞏固中的低層環流中心。一幅下午六時十一分(241011Z)的特別微波探測圖像儀/測深儀(Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder — SSMIS)圖像亦顯示位處南象限的緊密螺旋雲帶正捲入一個顯然的微波風眼中。現時系統的位置是基於上述的 EIR 動畫及 SSMIS 圖像,所以我們信心良好。目前55節的強度,是基於系統現時的結構,並定在所有匯報機構的德沃夏克強度估值之上。高空分析顯示,熱帶風暴21W仍然處於低垂直風切變和有水汽圖像所印證、具有輻射式流出的有利環境之中。熱帶風暴杜鵑正沿著深厚副熱帶高壓脊的西南緣移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 預報理由對比上次沒有改變
B. 由於系統於未來18至24小時會繼續鞏固,預料其將緩慢移動。然後,在副熱帶高壓脊的駛流影響下,杜鵑會維持向西北移動。持續有利的環境和高空條件將容許杜鵑於其後24小時迅速增強。預期熱帶風暴21W會在72小時後達到115節的巔峰強度。
C. 隨著西環副熱帶高壓脊重掌駛流環境,杜鵑會稍為轉西移動。預期系統開始與臺灣的互動將驅使其減弱。現有的預報模式就系統近期的西北移動路徑持有整體良好共識,但在延伸時段則出現顯著分歧。鑑於預報短期內系統路徑有不確定性,以及各現有路徑預測展現的分歧,聯合颱風警報中心表示對路徑預測的信心依然低迷。

图片:wp2115.gif

图片:21W_241132sair.jpg

图片:20150924.1011.f18.x.colorpct_91h_91v_1deg.21WDUJUAN.55kts-982mb-185N-1322E.91pc.


WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 538 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 241011Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS WRAPPING
INTO AN APPARENT MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EIR ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE
AND HEDGED HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 21W REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND RADIAL OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS DUJUAN IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, DUJUAN WILL
MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST, ALLOWING DUJUAN TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. DUJUAN WILL SLIGHTLY TURN WESTWARD AS THE WESTERN STR ASSUMES
THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH TAIWAN. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR
TERM, BUT SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. DUE TO
TRACK UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE SPREAD AMONG AVAILABLE
TRACKERS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2015-09-24 23:45编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +7
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3楼#
发布于:2015-09-25 11:58
21W預報理由翻譯帖 #14 — 九月廿五日十一時(250300Z)
1. 供氣象學家使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
颱風21W(杜鵑)集結在日本沖繩嘉手納空軍基地之東南偏南約501海哩,過去六小時以3節向西北偏北移動。動態多頻衛星圖像顯示一個鞏固中的系統,緊密螺旋雲帶正捲入一個闊18海哩、參差不齊的風眼;而一幅上午六時四十五分(242245Z)的特別微波探測圖像儀/測深儀(Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder — SSMIS),頻率為370億赫茲(37GHz)圖像則顯示一個明確的微波風眼特徵。總體來說,我們對系統目前的位置和最近的路徑移動信心良好。動態水汽圖像揭示了大幅改善的流出,而由於垂直分切變的下降,流出改善以系統東半圓尤為明顯。目前65節的強度被定在德沃夏克估值 T3.5(55節)之上,這是基於系統的對流結構和衛星共識(CIMSS Satellite Consensus — SATCON)的70節估值 。颱風杜鵑正沿著深厚副熱帶高壓脊(副高)的西南緣,在微弱駛流環境下緩慢移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 預報理由對比上次沒有改變
B. 最近的500百帕分析顯示一道短波槽在日本西部上空,而沖繩附近則有一副高弱點。該次分析亦顯示隨著短波槽在東環副高以上東傳,西環副高正擴展至東海。此外,亞洲高空呈現緯向環流,這形勢將容許副高繼續在系統以北建立,並重新主導駛流影響。72小時後,颱風21W會繼續向西北至西北偏西移動。持續預報模式已達成良好共識,雖就移速和西轉時間有些少分歧,然而預報(包括集合預報在內)已顯著改善並於過去一天維持一貫。預料颱風21W會在12小時後迅速增強,於48小時後達到115節的巔峰強度。
C. 在預報延伸時段,隨著颱風21W開始受西環副高的駛流引導,其會轉向西移動。持續預報已有所改善,大部分模式現在都指出系統會在臺灣附近採取向西的路徑;然而確實的登陸點存在不確定性,運算結果從臺灣中部到北緯28度附近都有。預期颱風21W在接近臺灣時會受地形影響而減弱,進入中國後開始迅速消散。總體來說,主要出現在72小時後的路徑走向不確定性,令聯合颱風警報中心對路徑預測的信心低迷。

图片:wp2115.gif

图片:21W_242332sams.jpg

图片:20150924.2245.f18.x.37h.21WDUJUAN.55kts-982mb-189N-1322E.99pc.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO AN 18-NM RAGGED EYE WHILE A 242245Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED OUTFLOW,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO DECREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS, HEDGED
HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) BASED ON THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND SATCON ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS. TY DUJUAN IS
TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. RECENT 500MB ANALYSES DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
JAPAN WITH A BREAK IN THE STR NEAR OKINAWA. THE ANALYSES ALSO
INDICATE THAT THE WESTERN STR IS BUILDING INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN STR.
FURTHERMORE, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER ASIA IS ZONAL, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE STR TO CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, RE-
ESTABLISHING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. TY 12W SHOULD CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TRACK
SPEED AND TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN, HOWEVER, GUIDANCE (INCLUDING
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE) HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY AND HAS REMAINED
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST DAY. TY 21W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY
TAU 48.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 21W WILL TURN WESTWARD AS IT BEGINS
TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS NOW SHOWING A
WESTWARD TRACK NEAR TAIWAN, HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT LANDFALL POINT WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM CENTRAL TAIWAN TO
NEAR 28N. TY 21W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION AND WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS
INTO CHINA. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO TRACK UNCERTAINTY, MAINLY AFTER TAU 72.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2015-09-26 20:57编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2015-09-25 18:58
21W預報理由翻譯帖 #15 — 九月廿五日十七時(250900Z)
1. 供氣象學家使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
颱風21W(杜鵑)集結在日本沖繩嘉手納空軍基地之東南偏南約485海哩,過去六小時以4節向西北偏西移動。動態多頻衛星圖像顯示一個鞏固中的系統,緊密螺旋雲帶正捲入一個闊9海哩、參差不齊的風眼;而因有該風眼的支持,我們對系統現時的位置信心良好。目前系統強度已被上調至75節,這是基於其有所改善的結構,以及全體匯報機構的德沃夏克強度估值出現上升。高空分析顯示,颱風21W仍然處於低(10至15節)垂直風切變和具有輻射式流出的有利環境之中。颱風杜鵑正沿著深厚副熱帶高壓脊(副高)的西南緣,在微弱駛流環境下緩慢移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 預報理由對比上次沒有改變
B. 未來12小時,在微弱駛流環境的持續影響下,預期系統將移動緩慢。其後,杜鵑會維持向西北偏西移動,72小時後亦如是。預測持續有利的環境和高空條件將容許杜鵑迅速增強,於48小時後達到120節的巔峰強度。
C. 隨著颱風21W開始受西環副高的駛流引導,其會轉向西移動。預期颱風21W在靠近臺灣時會受地形影響而減弱,進入中國後開始迅速消散。現有的預報模式就各現有的路徑預測於48小時後表現出顯著分歧:GFS認為系統會向西北移動趨近嘉手納,NVGM則指其會西進橫過臺灣。聯合颱風警報中心的路徑預測於過去一天維持一貫,定線接近多項模式的共識。然而,預報延伸時段的路徑不確定性,令聯合颱風警報中心對路徑預測的信心仍然低迷。

图片:wp2115.gif

图片:21W_250532sams.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 9-NM RAGGED EYE WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS RISEN TO 75 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND
AN INCREASE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 21W REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VWS AND RADIAL
OUTFLOW. TY DUJUAN IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WITHIN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, DUJUAN WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, ALLOWING DUJUAN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
   C. TY 21W WILL TURN WESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR. DUJUAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND WILL BEGIN
DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INTO CHINA. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS
AFTER TAU 48 WITH GFS DRIVING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD CLOSE TO
KADENA WHILE NVGM TAKING IT WESTWARD ACROSS TAIWAN. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST DAY AND IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, DUE TO TRACK UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS
LOW.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2015-09-25 19:01编辑了帖子]
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风王2012
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发布于:2015-09-25 23:24
21W预报理由翻译帖 #16 09月25日23时 (092515Z)
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析
台风21W杜鹃,位于嘉手纳空军基地东南偏东方约444海里,在过去6小时内以每小时8海里的速度向西北方向移动。红外增强卫星动画显示系统卷曲的对流包裹住25海里的风眼,这支持了我们对当前定位的较高信心。当前强度评定为80节是基于系统目前的结构和所有德法分析机构的德法分析报告。上层环流分析显示系统仍然位于10-20节低-中度风切环境中,辐射流出良好,这在水汽图像上非常明显。台风杜鹃将继续缓慢地沿着副热带高压的西南边缘移动。
3.预报理由
A.预报理由无明显改变。
B.72小时内,杜鹃将继续在副热带高压脊的影响下向西北方向前进。有利的环境和高空条件将持续至36小时后,使杜鹃增强至接近115节。
C.台风杜鹃将继续在副热带高压的影响下向西移动,杜鹃将因为接近台湾、中国并与陆地产生摩擦而减弱。现有的模型预测在48小时后出现明显分歧。GFS预测系统将向西北接近嘉手纳,而NVGM认为系统将西行横过台湾。我们过去一天内的预测大致一致,也与多数模型达成共识。然而延伸预报期内具有较大不确定性,我们对自己预报的信心很低。

图片:79_49260_203e51b2362356d.gif



图片:21W_251132sair.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 444 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDS WRAPPING
INTO A LARGE 25-NM DIAMETER EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 21W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS BEING OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS
EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TY DUJUAN IS TRACKING SLOWLY
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY DUJUAN WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, ALLOWING DUJUAN TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
   C. TY 21W WILL TURN WESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR. DUJUAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND WILL BEGIN
DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INTO CHINA. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG AVAILABLE
TRACKERS AFTER TAU 48 WITH GFS DRIVING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD
CLOSE TO KADENA WHILE NVGM TAKES IT WESTWARD ACROSS TAIWAN. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST DAY AND IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, DUE TO TRACK
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
[风王2012于2015-09-26 10:31编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2015-09-26 10:27
21W预报理由翻译帖 #18 09月26日11时 (092603Z)
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析
台风21W杜鹃,位于嘉手纳空军基地东南偏南方约361海里,在过去6小时内以每小时9海里的速度向西北方向移动。最近的多光谱卫星云图(MSI)动画显示系统卷曲的对流紧密地包裹住33海里的风眼,这支持了我们对当前定位的较高信心。当前强度提升为90节是基于所有德法分析机构的德法分析报告。上层环流分析显示系统仍然位于低风切环境中,辐射流出良好。台风杜鹃将继续缓慢地沿着副热带高压的西南边缘移动。
3.预报理由
A.预报理由无明显改变。
B.台风杜鹃在预报期内(即72小时)将继续在副热带高压脊的影响下向西北方向移动。由于持续良好的环境,这其中包括低风切、较高的海水热含量和较好的高空流出,台风将在36小时内持续加强并达到巅峰强度115节左右。然而,我们预测杜鹃将在36小时后开始减弱,这是因为杜鹃所在区域海水热含量的降低、风切的上升和台湾山区和陆地对杜鹃产生的负面影响。由于我们认为在48-72小时内杜鹃出现背风猛增(看不懂....)的可能性非常之大,因而我们对72小时后的预测定位信心很低。
C.台风杜鹃将在登陆中国大陆后明显消散。由于数值预报大致一致,因而我们对预测的信心高。

图片:wp2115.gif



图片:21W_251132sair.jpg




WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MSI SHOWS TIGHTLY WRAPPED
CURVED BANDING INTO A LARGE 33-NM DIAMETER EYE. THIS LEADS TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
RAISED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 21W REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS BEING OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. TY
DUJUAN IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY DUJUAN WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DUE
TO PERSISTENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS TO INCLUDE LOW
VWS, GOOD OHC AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, EXPECT CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36 AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITH A PEAK
OF 115 KNOTS. HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 48, EXPECT TY DUJUAN TO BEGIN TO
WEAKEN DUE TO LOWER OHC, AN INCREASE IN VWS AND LAND INTERACTION
WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF TAIWAN. DUE TO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF A LEEWARD JUMP SCENARIO BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, THERE IS LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN THE TAU 72 POSITION.
   C. TY 21W WILL DISSIPATE SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MAKES LANDFALL IN
CHINA THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[风王2012于2015-09-26 10:46编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2015-09-26 18:40
21W預報理由翻譯帖 #19 — 九月廿六日十七時(260900Z)
1. 供氣象學家使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
颱風21W(杜鵑)集結在日本沖繩嘉手納空軍基地之東南偏南約323海哩,過去六小時以7節向西北移動。動態多頻衛星圖像 (MSI)顯示深厚對流雲帶圍繞著一個擴大中、闊38海哩的風眼,並正捲入中心。過去六小時風眼位置呈現不規則移動,但已於過去三小時穩定下來並採取一個向西北偏西的軌跡。動態水汽圖像顯示受乾空氣入侵和西側下沉氣流的影響,西邊風眼牆開始崩塌。「總可降水量」產品進一步反映出乾空氣開始滲透系統。一幅下午一時十七分 (260517Z)的進階微波測深儀B號(Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B — AMSU-B)微波圖像顯示一個開口的微波風眼特徵,以及淺薄、緊密螺旋雲帶。一幅上午八時三十四分(260034Z)的進階散射測定儀(Advanced Scatterometer — ADSCAT)「靶心分析圖」顯示系統東北側一道有所擴展的34節風場。目前系統位置是基於 MSI 動畫上的風眼特徵,所以我們信心良好。目前強度維持在90節,這是基於所有機構的德沃夏克強度估值。颱風21W正處於一個中等有利的環境之中,良好輻散流出和10至15節的垂直風切變正有助現時的對流結構;然而,上述的乾空氣和下沉氣流亦正影響系統西側。颱風杜鵑正沿著深厚副熱帶高壓脊(副高)的西南緣緩慢移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 預報理由對比上次沒有改變
B. 隨著主導駛流的副高繼續在系統上方建立,颱風杜鵑會在預報期完結前維持向西北偏西移動。現時的環境條件會支持系統於未來36小時稍為增強。其後,颱風杜鵑會因較低的海洋熱含量、垂直風切變上升和臺灣高山的地形影響而開始減弱。由於當颱風橫過臺灣時,出現背風跳躍現象的可能性頗高,我們對系統72小時後的位置信心有限。
C. 在預報延伸時段,颱風21W會在中國沿岸作第二次登陸,並於預報期完結時急速消散。持續預報模式在預報期內達成良好共識,在48小時後、颱風登陸臺灣前只有135海哩的分歧。各模式的共識令聯合颱風警報中心對路徑預測的信心頗高。

图片:wp2115.gif

图片:21W_260532sams.jpg

图片:wv_lalo-animated.gif

图片:mosaic20150926T060000.gif

图片:20150926.0517.noaa19.x.89_1deg.21WDUJUAN.90kts-956mb-209N-1302E.100pc.jpg

图片:46362_DUJUAN_150926_0000.WRave2_map.gif


WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 323 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANDING 38NM EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS THE EYE
POSITION HAS SHOWN AN ERRATIC MOTION BUT HAS SETTLED ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WESTERN EYEWALL HAS STARTED TO BREAK
DOWN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FURTHER ILLUSTRATES
THE DRY AIR BEGINNING TO PENETRATE THE SYSTEM. A 260517Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN OPEN MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH SHALLOW
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING. A 260034Z ASCAT BULLSEYE SHOWED AN EXPANDED
34 KNOT WIND FIELD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON AN
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. TY 21W
IS ENCOUNTERING A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND 10 TO 15 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AIDING IN
THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE; HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS IMPACTING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. TY DUJUAN IS
TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY DUJUAN WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE SYSTEM. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 36, TY
DUJUAN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LOWER OHC VALUES, AN INCREASE IN
VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF TAIWAN. DUE
TO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A LEEWARD JUMP SCENARIO AS THE TYPHOON
PASSES THROUGH TAIWAN, THERE IS LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE TAU 72
POSITION.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY 21W WILL MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL
ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A 135NM SPREAD AT TAU 48 PRIOR
TO LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN. THIS MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2015-09-27 17:07编辑了帖子]
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颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-08-03
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发布于:2015-09-27 01:04
21W 預報理由翻譯帖 #20 — 九月廿六日廿三時(261500Z)
1. 供氣象學家使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
颱風21W(杜鵑)集結在日本沖繩嘉手納空軍基地之東南偏南約282海哩,過去六小時以9節向西北移動。動態色調強化紅外線衛星圖像顯示一個有所改善的對流核心結構,雲頂冷化並圍繞著一個闊38海哩的大風眼;該風眼支持目前系統的位置,所以我們信心良好。水汽動畫顯示核心結構比之前對稱,影響颱風的乾空氣亦減少。一幅下午八時三十分 (261230Z)的進階微波測深儀B號(Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B — AMSU-B)微波圖像顯示,一個強烈對流核心圍繞著一個已閉合的微波風眼特徵。目前系統強度已被上調至95節,這是基於所有機構的德沃夏克強度估值,並獲最近的一個「衛星共識」(CIMSS Satellite Consensus — SatCon)97節的強度估值所支持。環境分析顯示一個已改善的環境,具有接近輻射式流出和低垂直風切變。颱風杜鵑正沿著深厚副熱帶高壓脊(副高)的西南緣移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 預報理由對比上次沒有改變
B. 隨著主導駛流的副高繼續在系統上方建立,颱風杜鵑會在預報期內維持向西北偏西移動。現時的環境條件會支持系統於未來24小時稍為增強。其後,颱風21W會因較低的海洋熱含量、垂直風切變上升和與臺灣高山的地形影響而開始減弱。由於當颱風橫過臺灣時,出現背風跳躍現象的可能性頗高,我們對系統72小時後的位置信心有限。
C. 在預報延伸時段,颱風21W會在中國沿岸作第二次登陸,並於預報期完結時急速消散。持續預報模式在預報期內達成良好共識,在48小時後、颱風登陸臺灣前只有130海哩的分歧。各模式的緊密共識令聯合颱風警報中心對路徑預測的信心頗高。

图片:wp2115.gif

图片:21W_261132sair.jpg

图片:wv_lalo-animated.gif

图片:20150926.1230.metopa.x.89_1deg.21WDUJUAN.95kts-952mb-219N-1289E.98pc.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVED CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE WITH
COOLER CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A LARGE 38NM EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
MORE SYMMETRIC CORE STRUCTURE WITH DECREASED DRY AIR IMPACTING THE
TYPHOON. A 261230Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CLOSED OFF
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KNOTS BASED ON AN
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 97 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY DUJUAN IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY DUJUAN WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE SYSTEM. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24, TY
21W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LOWER OHC VALUES, AN INCREASE IN
VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF TAIWAN. DUE
TO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A LEEWARD JUMP SCENARIO AS THE TYPHOON
PASSES THROUGH TAIWAN, THERE IS LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE TAU 72
POSITION.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY 21W WILL MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL
ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SPREAD OF 130NM AT TAU 48 JUST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN. THIS TIGHT MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2015-09-27 17:08编辑了帖子]
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风王2012
资深会员-热带辐合带
资深会员-热带辐合带
  • 注册日期2013-11-09
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发布于:2015-09-27 10:31
21W预报理由翻译帖 #22 09月27日11时 (092703Z)
 1. 供专业气象人员分析
 2. 六小时总结与分析
台风21W杜鹃,位于嘉手纳空军基地偏南方约259海里,在过去6小时内以每小时7海里的速度向西方向移动。最近的多光谱卫星云图(MSI)动画显示了高度对称的对流和较为优秀的环流包裹住33海里的风眼。这支持了我们对当前定位的高信心。261750Z(北京时间27日1时50分,笔者注) AMSU-B微波图像显示被强对流包围着的近乎闭合的风眼。我们对当前强度提升为115节是基于KNES 和PGTW德法分析和系统的更好的对称性。环境分析显示杜鹃所在区域径向流出有所改善,风切较低。杜鹃将继续沿着副热带高压的西南边缘移动。
3.预报理由
A.预报理由无明显改变。
B.台风杜鹃将受到副热带高压加强的影响,在整个预报期内维持西北方向路径。未来24小时内,其所处环境将允许杜鹃加强至其巅峰强度130节左右。台风杜鹃将在登陆北台湾和受到中央山脉影响之后开始减弱。由于我们认为在48-72小时内杜鹃出现背风跳跃的可能性非常之大,因而我们对72小时后的预测定位信心很低。 72小时后,预计杜鹃将在中国东南部明显减弱。
C.我们预计杜鹃将在96小时后在中国东南部消散。由于数值预报大致一致,因而我们对预测的信心高。

图片:79_49260_23f00f039718bdd.gif

图片:20150926_1750_noaa19_x_89_1deg_21WDUJUAN_105kts-944mb-221N-1281E_99pc.jpg



WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
WITH VERY GOOD BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 33 NM EYE; SUPPORTING THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 261750Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A NEARLY CLOSED OFF MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY
AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 115 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM KNES AND PGTW AS WELL AS THE BETTER SYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS. TY DUJUAN IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY DUJUAN WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
SYSTEM. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS.
BEYOND TAU 24, TY 21W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO MAKING LANDFALL IN
NORTHERN TAIWAN AND ENCOUNTERING THE CHUNGYANG MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A LEEWARD JUMP SCENARIO AS THE TYPHOON PASSES
THROUGH TAIWAN, THERE IS LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE TAU 48 POSITION.
BY TAU 72, EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
PROPAGATES THROUGH SOUTHEAST CHINA.
   C. EXPECT COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[风王2012于2015-09-27 11:05编辑了帖子]
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