spidyl2009
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-07-15
  • 最后登录2017-05-23
  • 粉丝137
  • 关注46
  • 发帖数2771
  • 来自
阅读:6206回复:22

[报文翻译]1513号热带气旋"苏迪罗”(13W.Soudelor)之JTWC预报理由翻译帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2015-08-04 10:05
翻译信息表:      

   
报数
   
时间
   
翻译情况
   
翻译者
   
楼层
   
TCFA
   
-
   
   
-
   
-
   
#1-#19
   
-
   
   
-
   
-
   
#20
   
08.04-0300Z
   
全文翻译
   
spidyl2009
   
2楼
   
#21
   
08.04-0900Z
   
全文翻译
   
spidyl2009
   
3楼
   
#22
   
08.04-1500Z
   
全文翻译
   
风王2012
   
4楼
   
#22
   
08.04-1500Z
   
重复翻译
   
spidyl2009
   
5楼
   
#23
   
08.04-2100Z
   
全文翻译
   
小范老师
   
6楼
   
#24
   
08.05-0300Z
   
全文翻译
   
spidyl2009
   
8楼
   
#25
   
08.05-0900Z
   
全文翻译
   
风王2012
   
9楼
   
#26
   
08.05-1500Z
   
全文翻译
   
风王2012
   
10楼
   
#27
   
08.05-2100Z
   
全文翻译
   
spidyl2009
   
11楼
   
#28
   
08.06-0300Z
   
全文翻译
   
新细明体
   
12楼
   
#29
   
08.06-0900Z
   
全文翻译
   
新细明体
   
13楼
   
#30
   
08.06-1500Z
   
全文翻译
   
风王2012
   
14楼
   
#31
   
08.06-2100Z
   
全文翻译
   
新细明体
   
15楼
   
#32
   
08.07-0300Z
   
全文翻译
   
风王2012
   
16楼
   
#33
   
08.07-0900Z
   
全文翻译
   
spidyl2009
   
17楼
   
#34
   
08.07-1500Z
   
全文翻译
   
风王2012
   
18楼
   
#35
   
08.07-2100Z
   
全文翻译
   
新细明体
   
19楼
   
#36
   
08.08-0300Z
   
全文翻译
   
spidyl2009
   
20楼
   
#37
   
08.08-0900Z
   
全文翻译
   
风王2012
   
21楼
   
#38
   
08.08-1500Z
   
全文翻译
   
风王2012
   
22楼
   
#39最后警报
   
08.08-2100Z
   
无需翻译
   
-
   
-



说明:
1、由于该热带系统未来发展态势良好,且可能影响我国南部沿海,所以特开此贴。
2、本贴翻译JTWC报文,时间以协调世界時的作准。
3、翻译前为防止重复翻译原则上需要预约,可以直接回帖预约或发私信至开帖人预约。
4、为信息展示需要,请将报文原文和译文放置于同一楼层若回帖预约的,请将翻译放在预约帖
5、有时间的童鞋建议全文翻译,我们也鼓励抓要点进行简单翻译,简单翻译的要点:
发报时定位,过去的移动速度、结构、强度、环境场,未来的强度、路径、环境场,数值的预测
6、本帖不允许发与翻译和预约不相符的内容,否则将被视为灌水删帖处理。
7、翻译中若若有其他任何疑惑,欢迎加入翻译小组QQ群152955236加入我们的讨论。

 
组织规则
第一条 预报理由翻译贴是对JTWC Reasoning文件进行翻译的专贴。由于气旋的Reasoning文件翻译量不定,因此需要一定的人事组织,参与组织或翻译的会员将获得一定程度的奖励。
第二条 任何会员都可对任何JTWC升格的系统开贴,但原则上建议只对我国有影响的系统开帖。对不影响我国的系统,不建议单独开贴,翻译者可在追击贴或深度贴内进行,版主将按第八条之标准酌情加分。
第三条 开帖人默认为组织人,负责更新首楼的翻译信息表,并履行好翻译工作的责任,自己开帖让别人翻译的行为将被谴责及追究。如遇多人开贴,则同“抢扰动”规则,只保留一个帖子。若开帖人无时间组织,可委托管理团队组织。
第四条 翻译的模式有两种,分别为全部翻译、要点翻译。实践中,不建议连续全文翻译,可针对预报理由变动进行要点总结。
第五条 内容发布时,报文原文、中文翻译必须齐全。
第六条 开贴加分:开帖人翻译一篇或以上报文,威望+5;否则削减为威望+2。
第七条 组织加分:开设翻译信息表,贡献值+1;维护翻译信息表至台风结束,根据台风维持时间长短,追加贡献值2点,威望3~8点。
第八条 内容加分:全文翻译,视翻译质量加贡献值6-9点;要点翻译,视翻译质量贡献值2-5点。对单个台风,翻译5~9报者,追加贡献值5点,翻译10报以上者,追加贡献值10点。
第九条 使用翻译机进行翻译的,不予加分。
第十条 台风论坛管理团队对本条例有最终解释权。

[spidyl2009于2015-08-09 17:54编辑了帖子]
4条评分, 威望 +11 贡献值 +3
  • 风王2012
    贡献值 +2
    维护翻译信息表,时间较长。
    2015-08-09 17:55
  • 风王2012
    威望 +6
    维护翻译信息表,时间较长。
    2015-08-09 17:55
  • wangruizhi
    贡献值 1
    开帖
    2015-08-04 10:51
  • wangruizhi
    威望 5
    开帖
    2015-08-04 10:51
喜欢2 评分4
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
spidyl2009
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-07-15
  • 最后登录2017-05-23
  • 粉丝137
  • 关注46
  • 发帖数2771
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2015-08-04 10:06
--- 留位 ---
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
spidyl2009
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-07-15
  • 最后登录2017-05-23
  • 粉丝137
  • 关注46
  • 发帖数2771
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2015-08-04 10:08
13W预报理由翻译帖 #20 08月04日11时 (080403Z)
1.供气象人员使用
2. 六小时总结与分析:
超强台风13W苏迪罗,位于日本冲绳嘉手纳空军基地东南约822海里,过去六小时以11节向西偏北移动。动态多频卫星图像(MSI)显示系统保持高度着对称的招牌外貌,以及清晰勾画出15海里的风眼。初步定位乃基于MSI动画中的风眼,可信性高。目前强度155节乃基于PGTW及RJTD完全一样的德法定位分析。上层气流分析显示超强台风13W处于弱风切区域并拥有极好的双向流出。此外,31摄氏度的水表温度对进一步发展非常有利。13W正沿着其北的深层副热带高压脊的南部边缘移动。
3A. 预报理由无明显改变。
B. 超强台风13W在余下预报时段,都将受已建立的副热带高压脊的引导,向西偏北移动。环境将继续有利其进一步增强,13W在未来12-24小时将达到160节的巅峰强度。尔后,环境将变得稍微不利,导致其渐渐减弱。
C. 超强台风13W在延伸预报时段将因为海潜热减少、较低水表温度、微增的垂直风切等,继续减弱。苏迪罗将于约96小时后掠过台湾北部海岸,然后在预报期结束前在中国东部登陆。数值预报共识路径在整个预报期都保持紧密,因此我们预测路径的可信性为高。

图片:wxcht02.gif


图片:13W_032332sams.jpg




WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 822 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE AND A SHARPLY OUTLINED 15-NM EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 155 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT AND CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STY 13W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, SSTS AT 31 CELSIUS ARE
HIGHLY-CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.


3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WELL-
ESTABLISHED STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 160 KNOTS FROM TAU 12 TO
24. AFTERWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 13W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO
REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOWER SSTS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VWS.
STY SOUDELOR WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN SHORTLY AT TAU
96 BEFORE MAKING A FINAL LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA BEFORE END OF
FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
[spidyl2009于2015-08-07 16:42编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +7
  • nasdaq
    贡献值 +7
    优秀帖
    2015-08-10 17:55
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
spidyl2009
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-07-15
  • 最后登录2017-05-23
  • 粉丝137
  • 关注46
  • 发帖数2771
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2015-08-04 17:05
13W预报理由翻译帖 #21 08月04日17时 (080409Z)

1.供气象人员使用
2. 六小时总结与分析:
超强台风13W苏迪罗,位于日本冲绳嘉手纳空军基地东南约750海里,过去六小时以13节向北偏西移动。动态多频卫星图像(MSI)显示稍微减弱的系统,带有变得松散的对流旋臂,卷进直径12海里的风眼。目前定位乃基于MSI动画中的风眼,可信性高。目前强度140节乃基于所有预报机构的德法估值的整体估算以及(系统)目前结构。上层气流分析显示超强台风13W处于弱风切区域,辐散良好,向赤辐散明显偏强。此外,暖水表温度仍是有利因素。超强台风苏迪罗正沿着其北的深层副热带高压脊的南部边缘移动。
3A. 预报理由无明显改变。
B. 超强台风13W将受副热带高压脊的引导,保持西偏北的移动路径。由于上层气流以及环境因素不变,苏迪罗将在未来24小时保持强度。尔后,环境将变得稍微不利,导致其逐渐减弱。
C. 72小时后,一度中纬西风槽将在北方迁移,导致高压脊减弱,容许13W采取稍微偏西北的路径。13W将因为海潜热减少、较低水表温度、微增的垂直风切等,继续减弱。苏迪罗将掠过台湾北部海岸,然后在中国东部作最后登陆。数值预报共识路径保持紧密,因此我们预测路径的可信性为高。


图片:wp1315.gif

图片:13W_040532sams.jpg




WDPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI
DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED STRUCTURE WITH LOOSEN CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A 12 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL AS THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STY 13W IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH A STRONG
EQUATORWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SSTS IN THE AREA REMAINS
FAVORABLE. STY SOUDELOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.

3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 13W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED. AFTERWARDS, CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING.
   C. BY TAU 72, A MIGRATORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE STR, ALLOWING STY 13W TO SLIGHTLY SHIFT MORE
NORTHWESTWARD. SOUDELOR WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO REDUCED OHC,
LOWER SSTS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VWS.  STY 13W IS EXPECTED TO
CLIP THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL LANDFALL
OVER EASTERN CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
1条评分, 贡献值 +7
  • nasdaq
    贡献值 +7
    优秀帖
    2015-08-10 17:56
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
风王2012
资深会员-热带辐合带
资深会员-热带辐合带
  • 注册日期2013-11-09
  • 最后登录2017-05-23
  • 粉丝134
  • 关注71
  • 发帖数5142
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2015-08-04 22:39
13W预报理由翻译帖 #22 08月04日23时 (080415Z)
1.供专业气象人员分析
2.六小时总结与分析:
超强台风13W苏迪罗,位于冲绳嘉手纳空军基地东南约700海里,过去六小时以10节的速度向西方向移动。红外线卫星影像(EIR)描绘了苏迪罗些许松散的对流悬臂和一个直径18海里的风眼。当前的定位是基于EIR动画中具有代表性的台风眼,我们的信心较高。当前强度140节是基于所有预报机构的德法分析和苏迪罗当前的结构,我们的信心较高。上层环流分析显示苏迪罗所处海域的风切很小,高层对外流出良好,南侧的辐散非常优秀。另外,高海温仍然有利于苏迪罗的发展,其正在沿着背部副热带高压的南部边缘而移动中。
3.预报理由
A. 预报理由无明显改变。
B.苏迪罗未来将在副热带高压的引导下继续向西北西方向移动,由于高空流出以及其他环境因素的维持,苏迪罗也将在未来12-18小时内维持强度。随后,环境将略不利于苏迪罗发展,导致其缓慢减弱。
C.72小时后,中纬度的西风槽将会移动打击副热带高压,并允许苏迪罗增加向北分量。同时,苏迪罗也将因为环境的不利和陆地影响而出现减弱。苏迪罗将在登陆台湾北部后,于72小时后在中国大陆东部最后登陆。由于数值预报路径大致一致,因而我们对预测路径的信心高。

图片:wp1315.gif


图片:13W_041132sair.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS A 18 NM
DIAMETER EYE WITH SLIGHTLY LOOSEN CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES AND THE CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
STY 13W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SSTS IN THE AREA
REMAINS FAVORABLE. STY SOUDELOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 13W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED. AFTERWARDS,
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE LEADING TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
   C. BY TAU 72, A MIGRATORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE STR, ALLOWING STY 13W TO SLIGHTLY SHIFT MORE
NORTHWESTWARD. CONCURRENTLY, DEGRADED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. STY 13W IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL
LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
[风王2012于2015-08-05 11:11编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +7
  • nasdaq
    贡献值 +7
    优秀帖
    2015-08-10 17:57
我们相识在冬季。
回复(0) 喜欢(1)     评分(1)
spidyl2009
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-07-15
  • 最后登录2017-05-23
  • 粉丝137
  • 关注46
  • 发帖数2771
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2015-08-04 22:39
13W预报理由翻译帖 #22 08月04日23时 (080415Z)
1.供气象人员使用
2. 六小时总结与分析:
超强台风13W苏迪罗,位于日本冲绳嘉手纳空军基地东南约700海里,过去六小时以10节向西移动。最近的动态加强红外线卫星图像(EIR)可见直径18海里的风眼,带有稍微变松的对流旋臂。目前定位乃基于EIR动画中的风眼,可信性高。目前强度140节乃基于所有预报机构的德法估值的整体估算以及(系统)目前结构。上层气流分析显示超强台风13W处于弱风切区域,高层辐散良好,向赤辐散明显偏强。此外,暖水表温度仍是有利因素。超强台风苏迪罗正沿着其北的深层副热带高压脊的南部边缘移动。
3A. 预报理由无明显改变。
B. 超强台风13W将受副热带高压脊的引导,保持西偏北的移动路径。由于上层气流以及环境因素不变,苏迪罗将在未来12-18小时保持强度。尔后,环境将变得稍微不利,导致其逐渐减弱。
C. 72小时后,一度中纬西风槽将在北方迁移,导致高压脊减弱,容许超强台风13W采取稍微偏西北的路径。同时,不利的环境因素以及受地形影响等将使系统进一步减弱。苏迪罗将穿过台湾北部海岸,并在稍晚于96小时后在中国东部作最后登陆。数值预报共识路径在整个预报期内保持紧密,因此我们预测路径的可信性为高。


图片:wp1315.gif



图片:13W_041132sair.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS A 18 NM
DIAMETER EYE WITH SLIGHTLY LOOSEN CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES AND THE CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
STY 13W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SSTS IN THE AREA
REMAINS FAVORABLE. STY SOUDELOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 13W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED. AFTERWARDS,
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE LEADING TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
   C. BY TAU 72, A MIGRATORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE STR, ALLOWING STY 13W TO SLIGHTLY SHIFT MORE
NORTHWESTWARD. CONCURRENTLY, DEGRADED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. STY 13W IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL
LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
小范老师
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-03-27
  • 最后登录2017-05-23
  • 粉丝282
  • 关注467
  • 发帖数5282
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2015-08-05 06:59
13W预报理由翻译帖 #23 08月05日05时 (080421Z)
1.供气象学家使用
2.6小时总结与分析
超强台风苏迪罗(13W)目前大约冲绳嘉手纳空军基地东南约630海里处,并且在过去六小时中以12节的速度向西北西方向移动,现在的红外线卫星图像(EIR)显示出其保持着对称的形态虽然他有一个松散的对流悬臂并准确勾画出了直径为12海里的眼,另外,其西北侧的下沉气流阻碍了其更进一步的发展。当前的定位是基于EIR动画中具有带表性的台风眼,我们的信心较高。当前强度为130节是基于一致的德法分析来自于PGTW和RJTD以及系统减弱的反映。系统的高层分析显示STY13W位于一个低风切,良好辐散和强的赤向流出的区域,但是一个TUTT在北侧给其带来了下沉气流。STY苏迪罗正沿着位于其北缘的深层副高的南缘移动。
3.
A.预报理由无明显改变
B.STY13W将受副高影响向西北西方向移动。苏迪罗预计在接着的36小时出现减弱,因为我们之前我们所提到的TUTT带来的下沉气流。之后,随着TUTT影响的减弱和持续的低风切,高海温,强流出,系统会在72小时达到第二次顶峰 125节。
C.在延伸期,苏迪罗将穿过台湾北部,然后在中国的福州登陆。之后,北侧中纬度的系统将会打击副高,系统也将会转为西北方向移动,随着地上环境因素的变差并使系统减弱,系统预计将会在预报期最后达到45节,数值预报共识路径在预报期内保持紧密,因此我们预测的可能性高

图片:wp1315.gif

图片:13W_041732sair.jpg


JTWC/13W/#23/08-04 18Z Prognonstic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE EVEN AS
CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE WRAPPING LOOSER INTO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 15-NM
DIAMETER EYE. ADDITIONALLY, SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
IS HAMPERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT AND CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STY 13W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND
GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. HOWEVER, A TUTT
IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY. STY SOUDELOR IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 13W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UP TO TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE SUBSIDING EFFECT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT. AFTERWARDS, THE DIMINISHING EFFECT OF THE
TUTT PLUS CONTINUED LIGHT VWS, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS WILL
REINVIGORATE THE CYCLONE TO A SECONDARY PEAK OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY SOUDELOR WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
TAIWAN, THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THEN MAKE LANDFALL INTO CHINA NEAR FUZHOU.
AFTERWARDS, A MIGRATORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL
WEAKEN THE STR AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWESTWARD. DEGRADED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN AND ERODE
THE SYSTEM ANEW - REDUCING IT TO 45 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
[拉姆爱推销于2015-08-05 09:39编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +6
  • nasdaq
    贡献值 +6
    优秀帖
    2015-08-10 17:58
うるさくてたまらないんだ...
回复(1) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
spidyl2009
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-07-15
  • 最后登录2017-05-23
  • 粉丝137
  • 关注46
  • 发帖数2771
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2015-08-05 09:22
小范老师锛1.供气象学家使用
2.6小时总结与分析
超强台风苏迪罗(13W)目前大约冲绳嘉手纳空军基地东南约630海里处,并且在过去六小时中以12节的速度向西北西方向移动,现在的红外线卫星图像(EIR)显示出其保持着对称的形态虽然他有一个松散的对...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
@风王2012、@小范老师 ,谢谢帮忙翻译!然而请留意规则3:

3、翻译前为防止重复翻译原则上需要预约,可以直接回帖预约或发私信至开帖人预约。

下次翻译的时候,为免重复翻译,请先按版规PM我预约,并按照预约安排按时作翻译,谢谢你们。
2条评分, 威望 +1 金钱 +1
  • 风王2012
    威望 +1
    谢谢
    2015-08-05 10:49
  • 小范老师
    金钱 +1
    表客气 感谢论坛有机会让我们锻炼翻译水平
    2015-08-05 09:27
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(2)
spidyl2009
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-07-15
  • 最后登录2017-05-23
  • 粉丝137
  • 关注46
  • 发帖数2771
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2015-08-05 11:51
13W预报理由翻译帖 #24 08月05日11时 (080503Z)
1.供气象人员使用
2. 六小时总结与分析:
台风13W苏迪罗,位于日本冲绳嘉手纳空军基地东南约574海里,过去六小时以11节向西移动。最近的动态多频卫星图像(MSI)显示系统继续拥有良好的对流旋臂,连同一些干空气卷进清晰的直径16海里的风眼。此外,沿着西北外围可见下沉气流正限制北部的对流发展。042309Z的特别微波探测仪(SSMIS)部分扫描显示深层对流集中在低层环流中心的南部。目前定位乃基于MSI动画中的风眼,可信性高。目前强度115节乃基于所有机构的德法估值并反映系统正在减弱的状态。上层气流分析显示13W处于弱风切区域并拥有良好的高层辐散。不过,一度热带对流层上部槽(TUTT)正为其西北外围带来下沉气流。台风苏迪罗正沿着其北的深层副热带高压脊的南部边缘移动。
3A. 预报理由无明显改变。
B. 台风13W在未来72小时,都将受副热带高压脊的引导,向西偏北移动。台风苏迪罗将因北部的下沉气流,在未来24小时缓慢减弱。尔后,我们预计系统将因良好海潜热、低风切和良好高空辐散,在48小时后逐渐增强至第二次巅峰125节。72小时后,苏迪罗将撞击台湾中部,系统将被玉山山脉的地形破坏。
C. 在延伸预报时段,台风苏迪罗将横过台湾海峡,在福建省登陆。随着系统在预报期末移向福建,地形效应与较差的高空辐散将继续使系统减弱。数值预报共识路径保持紧密,因此我们预测路径的可信性为高。

图片:wp1315.gif


WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 574 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 16-NM DIAMETER EYE
WITH SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ADDITIONALLY, SUBSIDENCE CAN BE SEEN
ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY, LIMITING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS REINFORCED BY A 042309Z SSMIS PARTIAL
PASS SHOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LLCC.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI
LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS
SUPPORTS DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS
THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY
13W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
HOWEVER, A TUTT IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY.
TY SOUDELOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.

3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. TY SOUDELOR
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO GOOD OHC, LOW VWS AND GOOD OUTFLOW WITH
A SECONDARY PEAK OF 125 KNOTS AT TAU 48. BY TAU 72, TY SOUDELOR WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL TAIWAN, WITH THE TOPOGRAPHICAL AFFECTS OF THE YUSHAN
RANGE DECAYING THE SYSTEM.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY SOUDELOR WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE TAIWAN STRAIT, MAKING LANDFALL IN THE FUJIAN PROVINCE. LAND
INTERACTION AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE
THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS PUQI BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
[spidyl2009于2015-08-06 22:18编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +8
  • nasdaq
    贡献值 +8
    优秀帖
    2015-08-10 17:59
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
风王2012
资深会员-热带辐合带
资深会员-热带辐合带
  • 注册日期2013-11-09
  • 最后登录2017-05-23
  • 粉丝134
  • 关注71
  • 发帖数5142
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2015-08-05 16:43
13W预报理由翻译帖 #25 08月05日17时 (080509Z)
1.供专业气象人员分析
2.六小时总结与分析:
超强台风13W苏迪罗,位于日本冲绳嘉手纳空军基地东南约517海里,过去六小时以12节的速度向西方向移动。最近的动态多频卫星图像(MSI)继续显示了苏迪罗正在逐渐变薄的北部对流云系和直径15海里的风眼。MSI上的台风眼支持了我们对当前定位的高信心。当前强度105kts是基于所有预报机构的德法分析和苏迪罗正在减弱的系统状态,我们的信心较高。上层环流分析显示苏迪罗所处海域的风切很小,高层对外流出良好,南侧的辐散非常优秀。其正在沿着北部副热带高压的南部边缘而移动中。
3.预报理由
A.预报理由无明显改变
B.苏迪罗在未来72小时内会继续受到北侧副热带高压的引导向西方向移动。未来24小时内,苏迪罗将因为北面的下沉气流影响,强度缓慢减弱。48小时后,我们预料因为重新改善的环境条件和辐散流出的加强,苏迪罗将达到第二次巅峰强度约120kts左右。72小时后,苏迪罗横过台湾中部并进入台湾海峡的中部,与陆地的摩擦将使得苏迪罗减弱。
C.在延伸预报期内,苏迪罗在登陆中国大陆后将继续减弱。同时,中纬度的西风槽也将打击副热带高压,并使苏迪罗有更多的北分量。由于数值预报大致一致,因而我们对预测路径的信心高。

图片:wp132015_20150805080639.gif

图片:13W_050532sams.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 517 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW THINNING
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A 15 NM DIAMETER EYE THAT
SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE
WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 13W
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH A
STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. TY SOUDELOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. TY SOUDELOR WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE. AFTERWARD, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY DUE TO IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH A SECONDARY PEAK OF 120 KNOTS AT TAU 48. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER CENTRAL TAIWAN AND EMERGE INTO THE
TAIWAN STRAIT BY TAU 72. LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY SOUDELOR WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. CONCURRENTLY, A MIGRATORY MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND DRIVE THE
CYCLONE POLEWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
[风王2012于2015-08-05 22:10编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +8
  • nasdaq
    贡献值 +8
    优秀帖
    2015-08-10 18:00
我们相识在冬季。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
上一页
游客

返回顶部