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[AL]美国以东洋面热带风暴“克劳黛特”(03L.Claudette) - 风场扫出40kt,迅速升格命名

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更多 发布于:2015-07-12 13:18
AL, 92, 2015071200, , BEST, 0, 356N, 753W, 20, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005, SPAWNINVEST, al752015 to al922015,

1. A non-tropical low pressure system has moved off of the east coast
of the United States and is located about 70 miles east of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina. Although showers and thunderstorms have
become concentrated near the center of the low, environmental
conditions are expected to only be marginally conducive for
development of a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next
day or so while the low moves eastward and then northeastward away
from the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


[iam最小值于2015-07-16 13:14编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2015-07-13 09:53
NHC:10%
1. A small non-tropical area of low pressure continues to produce
disorganized showers about 200 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North
Carolina.  Environmental conditions are expected to become
increasingly unfavorable, and significant development of the low is
not expected while it accelerates northeastward away from the United
States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

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发布于:2015-07-13 20:58
NHC:40%
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small non-
tropical area of low pressure located about 350 miles east-northeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become better organized
overnight.  Environmental conditions could allow for some
additional development today before becoming unfavorable on
Tuesday while the low accelerates northeastward away from the United
States. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

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新细明体
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发布于:2015-07-14 00:40

图片:two_atl_2d1.png



图片:WMBds86.png



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion on
the low pressure system east of the United States mid-Atlantic
coast.

1. Satellite pictures indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with a low pressure system located about 450 miles east-
northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to become
better organized.  Satellite wind data also indicate that the low's
circulation is well defined, with winds of tropical storm force.

Based on these data, advisories on a tropical storm will be issued
within the next hour. The low is expected to accelerate
northeastward during the next day or two, away from the U.S. coast.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent


Forecaster Kimberlain/Brown

AL, 03, 2015071312,   , BEST,   0, 368N,  694W,  45, 1004, DB,  34, NEQ,   60,   50,   20,   30, 1012,  120,  30,  55,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 005, TRANSITIONED, alA22015 to al032015,
[新细明体于2015-07-14 00:44编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2015-07-14 00:55

图片:NHC.png


图片:NH.png


迅速命名Claudette,今年北大西洋3只扰动全部成旋命名



FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 38.5N  66.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 41.0N  64.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 43.9N  61.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 47.2N  58.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
[nasdaq于2015-07-14 01:01编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2015-07-14 01:07
另外直到前一报为止一直认为是非热带性的低压系统,是最新一报才认定热带性的……
ABNT20 KNHC 131133
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small non-
tropical area of low pressure
located about 350 miles east-northeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become better organized
overnight.  Environmental conditions could allow for some
additional development today before becoming unfavorable on
Tuesday while the low accelerates northeastward away from the United
States. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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格物致知
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发布于:2015-07-14 15:31
系统本身是比较浅的温带气旋 高空没有什么明显的槽之类
所以一旦被暖化就直接跳过副热带时期了

图片:23.slp.png

图片:23.phase2.zoom.png

图片:23.phase1.zoom.png



GFS这个风场的分析总觉得还不是很热带的感觉 也许是有误差
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发布于:2015-07-14 15:37
..TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE NEAR 38.9N 64.9W 1004 MB AT 0300 UTC
JUL 14 MOVING ENE OR 060 DEG AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NE
QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...20 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 30 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NE AND SW
QUADRANTS...AND 90 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CLAUDETTE 43N59W 1004 MB. WITHIN
180 NM NE...300 NM SE AND 240 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CLAUDETTE DISSIPATED AND
CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.



SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS...TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE NEAR
38.9N 64.9W AT 11 PM THIS EVENING IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT
17 KT AND WILL PASS NE OF THE AREA TO NEAR 40.6N 62.7W BY 8 AM
TUE... THEN CONTINUE OFF TO THE NE LATER TUE WHILE BECOMING POST-
TROPICAL. OTHERWISE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TUE NIGHT...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF
WEAK LOWS TRACK NE ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY SW TO NE ACROSS THE WATERS FRI INTO SAT NIGHT
WHILE MORE WEAK LOWS TRACK NE ALONG THE FRONT.

图片:A_w_sfc_color.png

图片:A_24hrsfc.gif



感觉锋面并没完全消失
预报是24H内变回温带气旋,并且迅速锢囚。。。
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格物致知
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发布于:2015-07-15 19:07
2:45 AM ADT Wednesday 15 July 2015
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA

For post-tropical storm Claudette.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT. Claudette has become post-tropical and is moving towards Southeastern Newfoundland where rain and gusty winds can be expected this morning.

1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 AM ADT.

Location: near 44.8 north 56.9 west.

About 360 kilometres southwest of Argentia.

Maximum sustained winds: 65 km/hour.

Present movement: northeast at 33 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 1002 MB.
[格物致知于2015-07-15 19:08编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2015-07-19 02:01
CLAUDETTE
20150713 1700UTC 37.4N 68.1W 45KT 1004HPA TS
20150713 2100UTC 38.1N 66.9W 45KT 1004HPA
20150714 0300UTC 38.9N 64.9W 45KT 1004HPA
20150714 0900UTC 40.1N 63.3W 40KT 1004HPA
20150714 1500UTC 41.4N 61.3W 35KT 1005HPA
20150714 2100UTC 42.5N 59.8W 40KT 1005HPA
20150715 0300UTC 43.8N 57.8W 40KT 1004HPA POST-TC
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