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[EP]墨西哥以西四级飓风“安德烈斯”(01E.Andres) - 东太首飓,巅峰130kt,再续东太传奇

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更多 发布于:2015-05-27 19:46
NHC相当看好 5天展望给90%发展机会
92E INVEST 150527 0600 8.8N 102.8W EPAC 20 NA
1. Showers and thunderstorms in association with a broad area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
coast of Mexico have become better organized.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days as
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

[拉姆爱推销于2015-06-19 09:37编辑了帖子]
4条评分, 威望 +3 金钱 +3
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beta
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1楼#
发布于:2015-05-27 23:38
现在海军编扰都这么迟钝?NHC都60%了才编扰。另外看EC预报东太未来会出两个货,本来是92E弱另一个小环流强,现在EC已经调反过来了
[beta于2015-05-27 23:39编辑了帖子]
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刚打酱油回来
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2楼#
发布于:2015-05-28 00:08
WTPN21 PHNC 271430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7N 103.7W TO 11.9N 111.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
271400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.9N
104.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9N 104.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 270847Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH
SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 270425Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS A
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL
WITH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS, WHICH ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281430Z.//
NNNN

图片:ep9215.gif

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meow
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发布于:2015-05-28 01:35
beta锛毾衷诤>嗳哦颊饷闯俣郏縉HC都60%了才编扰。另外看EC预报东太未来会出两个货,本来是92E弱另一个小环流强,现在EC已经调反过来了鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
似乎东太平洋和北大西洋编扰是NHC和CPHC自己决定的……所以一般比较严格。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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beta
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4楼#
发布于:2015-05-28 02:34
meow锛毸坪醵窖蠛捅贝笪餮蟊嗳攀荖HC和CPHC自己决定的……所以一般比较严格。鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
那为何JTWC还会发TCFA?一编扰就TCFA?
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meow
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发布于:2015-05-28 03:40
beta锛毮俏蜫TWC还会发TCFA?一编扰就TCFA?鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
纯粹跟随NHC或CPHC的评级罢了,评级60%(对应以前的high)以上就发TCFA。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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刚打酱油回来
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6楼#
发布于:2015-05-28 04:56
TXPZ26 KNES 271817
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)
B.  27/1800Z
C.  8.4N
D.  106.6W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...SCHWARTZ

图片:20150527.1800.goes15.x.vis1km_high.92EINVEST.25kts-1007mb-89N-1048W.100pc.jpg

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7楼#
发布于:2015-05-28 08:10
ABPZ20 KNHC 272332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 700 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  This system is expected to
become a tropical depression later this evening or on Thursday while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake
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8楼#
发布于:2015-05-28 09:02
TXPZ26 KNES 280028
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)
B.  28/0000Z
C.  9.4N
D.  108.0W
E.  FIVE/GOES-W
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS SMALL CORE OF CONVECTION NEAR LOW LEVEL CENTER
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION IN PERIPHERAL BANDS. OVERALL..SYSTEM
HAS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC APPEARANCE IN ANIMATED VIS IMAGERY WITH A BROAD
OUTER BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND MORE SHALLOW
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO EASTERN QUADRANT FROM ITCZ. 2 TENTHS BANDING
GIVES DT=1.0. MET=1.0 BASED ON 24 HOUR DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT=1.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    27/1855Z 8.8N 106.9W AMSR2

...RUMINSKI

图片:20150528.0000.goes15.x.vis1km_high.92EINVEST.25kts-1008mb-97N-1075W.100pc.jpg

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meow
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发布于:2015-05-28 16:21
名字都没有,还是热低One-E而已,要说首飓还太早。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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