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[WP]1505号热带气旋“海神”(05W.Haishen)机构发报专帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2015-04-02 12:53
JTWC/99W/TCFA/04-02 0530Z

图片:wp992015.20150402045437.gif



WTPN21 PGTW 020530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.6N 161.2E TO 8.8N 156.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 020500Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 160.8E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.8N
160.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A
020306Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI REVEAL NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1005 MB. A 012220Z
SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED WITH
10 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030530Z.//
[新细明体于2015-04-04 15:22编辑了帖子]
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论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2015-04-02 13:29
1505号热带气旋“海神”机构发报指引
4月2日:
JTWC   TCFA        

4月3日:
JTWC   00Z--Prognostic Reasoning   06Z--Prognostic Reasoning          
            12Z--Prognostic Reasoning   18Z--Prognostic Reasoning                  

4月4日:
JMA    00   03   06(命名)   09   12   15   18   21              
CMA   06   12   18                       台风预报(18:00)            
KMA   06   12   18            
CWB   06(COR)   12   18                          
JTWC   00Z--Prognostic Reasoning   06Z--Prognostic Reasoning          
            12Z--Prognostic Reasoning   18Z--Prognostic Reasoning                  
 
4月5日:
JMA    00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21                
CMA   00   06   09   12   18                    
          台风预报(06:00)   台风预报(10:00)   台风预报(18:00)                    
KMA   00   06   12   18                      
CWB   00   06   12   18                      
JTWC   00Z--Prognostic Reasoning   06Z--Prognostic Reasoning          
            12Z--Prognostic Reasoning   18Z--Prognostic Reasoning                  
 
4月6日:
JMA    00(降格热带低压)        
CMA   00   06   12(停编报)            
          台风预报(06:00)  台风预报(10:00)   台风预报(18:00)              
KMA   00(降格热带低压)                    
JTWC   00Z--Prognostic Reasoning   06Z--Prognostic Reasoning          
            12Z(Final Warning)
[iam最小值于2015-05-02 20:31编辑了帖子]
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t02436
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2楼#
发布于:2015-04-03 10:29
JTWC/05W/#01/04-03 00Z

图片:wp052015.20150403022707.gif


WTPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020521ZAPR15//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z --- NEAR 8.0N 156.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.0N 156.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 8.8N 155.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 9.5N 153.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 9.8N 152.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 10.3N 153.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 11.5N 154.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 12.9N 155.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 8.2N 156.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM EAST
OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS WARNING SUPERCEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 020521Z APR 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 020530).//
NNNN
[t02436于2015-04-03 10:59编辑了帖子]
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t02436
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发布于:2015-04-03 11:01
JTWC/05W/#01/04-03 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM
EAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION AND GOOD LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH.
SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM 022238Z AND 022245Z SHOW A TIGHTLY WRAPPED
LLCC WITH 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 5 TO 10 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW.
THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TD 05W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 05W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING NER. IT WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL
REDUCE SPEED AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR TAU 36 DUE TO A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE NER REORIENTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND A DEEP LAYERED SUB TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BETWEEN THE
RIDGES WILL PROVIDE INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
THE NER WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD. AS TD
05W TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH INCREASES THE VWS ABOVE 30 KNOTS AND THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 05W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
FURTHER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER VWS, LEADING
TO ITS DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST SCENARIO; HOWEVER, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND TIMING OF THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT IN TRACK. DUE TO THESE FACTORS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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地平线的星
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4楼#
发布于:2015-04-03 16:09
JTWC/05W/#02/04-03 06Z

图片:wp0515 20150403 0600Z.gif


 
WTPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 002    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z --- NEAR 7.9N 155.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.9N 155.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 8.6N 154.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 8.9N 153.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 9.0N 152.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 9.2N 152.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 10.1N 152.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 11.6N 154.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 8.1N 155.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 227 NM EAST
OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS
8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
[地平线的星于2015-04-03 16:12编辑了帖子]
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327
327
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5楼#
发布于:2015-04-03 16:42
JTWC/05W/#02/04-03 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 227 NM
EAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT
INTO THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 030527Z SSMIS PARTIAL 91 GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC. BASED ON THE WEAK
NATURE OF THE LLCC AND LACK OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS, BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 25 TO
30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 5 TO 10 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 05W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK EXTENSION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 05W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 TO 36
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. HOWEVER, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND RETREAT AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO
THE WEST. THIS WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. HENCE, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WHILE GENERALLY INDICATING A QUASI-STATIONARY,
LOOPING MOTION. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 45 KNOTS PRIMARILY DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, TD 05W SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO HIGHER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, LEADING
TO ITS DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST SCENARIO; HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK. DUE TO THESE FACTORS THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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327
327
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发布于:2015-04-03 22:00
JTWC/05W/#03/04-03 12Z
WTPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 003    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z --- NEAR 8.4N 154.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 154.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 8.9N 153.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 9.1N 152.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 9.3N 152.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 9.7N 152.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 10.8N 152.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 12.1N 154.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 154.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:wp052015.20150403135830.gif

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发布于:2015-04-03 22:17
JTWC/05W/#03/04-03 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT
30 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 05W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK EXTENSION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 05W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, A MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE WEST WEAKENING THE STEERING STR
AND CAUSING A PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. TD 05W IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS PRIMARILY DUE TO
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 48, TD 05W SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AS
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DOMINATES THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO HIGHER VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 96.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST
SCENARIO; HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORWARD SPEED AND TIMING OF THE NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK. DUE TO
THESE FACTORS, JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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发布于:2015-04-04 05:50
JTWC/05W/#04A/04-03 18Z [Amended]

图片:JTWC_05W_0403_18_AMD.gif



WTPN32 PGTW 032100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 004AA AMENDED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 8.4N 154.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 154.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 8.7N 152.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 8.8N 152.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 8.9N 151.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 9.2N 151.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 9.5N 151.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 153.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: REDUCED TAU 72 INTENSITY TO 20
KNOTS.//
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发布于:2015-04-04 05:52
JTWC/05W/#04/04-03 18Z [Prognostic Reasoning]
WDPN32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
PASSES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 05W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SOONER - BY TAU 72,
OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 05W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING STR AND
CAUSE A PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION BEFORE A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING BY TAU 48. TD 05W
MAY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS MAINLY DUE TO THE GOOD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, AFTER THE NER ASSUMES STEERING AND NUDGES THE SYSTEM
POLEWARD, THE VWS WILL INCREASE AND ERODE THE SYSTEM TO ITS
DISSIPATION. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING PATTERN AS
REFLECTED IN THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE; THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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