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[SH(14-15)]科科斯群岛西南四级强热带气旋“伊科娜”(第14号/19U/21S.Ikola) - 迅速增强又迅速减弱

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更多 发布于:2015-04-02 06:13
93S INVEST 150401 1800  12.2S   87.0E SHEM   15   NA
[iam最小值于2015-04-09 09:48编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2015-04-02 21:37
East of 80E, a broad low level clockwise circulation exist with no monsoon inflow between
10S/15S, close to the easterly border of our AoR. The associated convective activity is fluctuating
and disorganised at present time.

At 11Z, a broad low pressure area is centred near 11.5S / 87.5E. Within the next few days,
environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for gradual development over
this area with an improving monsoon inflow and good upper level conditions that may last until
Monday or Tuesday before a gradual increase of the north-westerly shear.

The likelihood that a tropical depression develops over our AoR remains low until Saturday
and becomes moderate Sunday and beyond over the eastern border of our AoR.
 

图片:20150402.1100.meteo7.x.vis2km.93SINVEST.20kts-1007mb-119S-873E.100pc.jpg

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发布于:2015-04-03 02:17
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZAPR2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 74.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 70.0E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH STRAIGHT LINE CONVERGENCE CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST. A
021343Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), HOWEVER, DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE, AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO THE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF
CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
     (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.7S 87.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 550 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC WITH FLARING
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. A 021409Z SSMIS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH LIMITED CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 KNOT)
VWS BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE MODERATE VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//

图片:abiosair.jpg

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3楼#
发布于:2015-04-03 15:31
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 12:18 pm WST on Friday 3 April 2015
for the period until midnight WST Monday 6 April 2015.

Potential Cyclones:  

A weak tropical low lies near 8S 88E and is moving slowly towards the
southeast. This system is expected to move into the Western Region early next
week but conditions are only slightly favourable for development into a
tropical cyclone and any development is expected to be short-lived.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday        Very Low  
Sunday          Very Low  
Monday          Low        

图片:20150403.0700.meteo7.x.vis2km.93SINVEST.20kts-1007mb-91S-881E.100pc.jpg

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4楼#
发布于:2015-04-03 22:39
Suspect area East of the basin :
The convective activity remains fluctuating and disorganized North of 12S and East of 85E.
For the next days, the environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for gradual
development over this area with an improving monsoon inflow and good upper level conditions that
may last until Monday or Tuesday before a gradual increase of the north-westerly shear.
The NWP models are deepening a low in this area from Saturday, and forecast a South-South-East
movement.

The likelihood that a tropical depression develops East of the basin is low until Saturday, and
becomes moderate Sunday over the eastern border of our AoR.
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5楼#
发布于:2015-04-04 02:26
TPXS10 PGTW 031807
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93S (W OF COCOS IS)
B. 03/1730Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/MET7
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   03/1226Z  10.32S  87.08E  SSMS
   03/1250Z  10.25S  87.08E  SSMS
   03/1357Z  10.32S  86.98E  SSMS
   03/1540Z  9.73S  87.42E  MMHS

   UEHARA
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6楼#
发布于:2015-04-04 08:47
JTWC:REMAINS LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZAPR2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S
87.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 87.7E, APPROXIMATELY 555 NM WEST OF
COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO
THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (20 KNOT) VWS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abiosair.jpg

【年年岁岁台风相似,岁岁年年追风不同】
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7楼#
发布于:2015-04-04 14:21
TPXS10 PGTW 040607
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93S (W OF COCOS ISLAND)
B. 04/0530Z
C. 9.41S
D. 86.16E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   04/0033Z  10.43S  87.42E  WIND
   04/0106Z  10.52S  87.37E  SSMS

   LEMBKE

图片:20150404.0600.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.93SINVEST.20kts-1007mb-106S-874E.100pc.jpg

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wangruizhi
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8楼#
发布于:2015-04-04 21:30
Suspect area East of the basin :

The convective activity remains fluctuating and disorganized North of 14S and East of 80E. Last
micro-waves data show a clockwise circulation ill definited, and deep convection not well organize.
At 09Z, a centre is located near 10.3S/8536E, with a MSLP is estimated at 1004hPa.
For the next days, the environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for gradual
development over this area with an improving monsoon inflow and good upper level conditions that
may last until Monday before a gradual increase of the north-westerly shear Tuesday.
the avalaible NWP models develop a low on sunday on this area. it is expected to track Souteastwards
and enter in the Autralien area at the end of the Easter week-end.

The likelihood that a tropical depression develops East of the basin becomes moderate
Sunday over the eastern border of our AoR.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 12:51 pm WST on Saturday 4 April 2015
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 7 April 2015.

Potential Cyclones:  

A tropical low lies near 10S 88E and is moving slowly towards the southeast.
This system is expected to move into the Western Region late on Monday or early
on Tuesday. There is a small window where conditions become more favourable for
development into a tropical cyclone as the system moves into the Western
Region. If this system does develop into a tropical cyclone it is expected to
be short-lived and pass well to the south of the Cocos Islands.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday          Very Low  
Monday          Moderate  
Tuesday         Moderate

图片:20150404_1100_meteo7_x_vis2km_93SINVEST_20kts-1007mb-102S-867E_100pc.jpg



[wangruizhi于2015-04-05 20:44编辑了帖子]
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9楼#
发布于:2015-04-05 08:02
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZAPR2015//
RMKS/
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S
87.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 87.7E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (20 KNOT) VWS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

图片:abiosair.jpg

【年年岁岁台风相似,岁岁年年追风不同】
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