spidyl2009
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[报文翻译]2013-31号“杨柳”台风(32W.Podul)之JTWC預報理由翻譯帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2013-11-11 10:01
翻译信息表:      
      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      
                       
报数
                       
时间
                         
翻译情况
                       
翻译者
                       
楼层
                         
TCFA
                       
11.10-1700Z
                       
全文翻译
                       
spidyl2009
                       
首楼
                       
TCFA重发
                       
11.11-1700Z
                         
全文翻译
                         
spidyl2009
                         
1楼
                             
TCFA重发
                             
11.12-1700Z
                             
全文翻译
                             
spidyl2009
                             
2楼
                             
TCFA取消
                             
11.13-1700Z
                             
无需翻译
                             
。。。
                             
。。。
                             
TCFA再发
                             
11.14-1200Z
                             
全文翻译
                             
spidyl2009
                             
3楼
                             
#1
                             
11.14-1500Z
                             
全文翻译
                             
spidyl2009
                             
4楼
                             
#2
                             
11.14-2100Z
                             
全文翻译
                             
spidyl2009
                             
5楼
                             
#3最后警报
                             
11.15-0300Z
                             
无需翻译
                             
。。。
                             
。。。

 
 
说明:
1、由于该热带系统未来发展态势良好,且可能影响我国南部沿海,所以特开此贴。
2、本贴翻译JTWC报文,时间以协调世界時的作准。
3、翻译前为防止重复翻译原则上需要预约,可以直接回帖预约或发私信至开帖人预约。
4、为信息展示需要,请将报文原文和译文放置于同一楼层若回帖预约的,请将翻译放在预约帖
5、有时间的童鞋建议全文翻译,我们也鼓励抓要点进行简单翻译,简单翻译的要点:
发报时定位,过去的移动速度、结构、强度、环境场,未来的强度、路径、环境场,数值的预测
6、本帖不允许发与翻译和预约不相符的内容,否则将被视为灌水删帖处理。
7、翻译中若若有其他任何疑惑,欢迎加入翻译小组QQ群152955236加入我们的讨论。

 
组织规则
1.默认开帖人为组织人,负责更新首楼的翻译信息表。有多人开贴,同“抢扰动”规则,只保留一个帖子。若开帖人无时间组织,可委托管理团队组织。
2.为避免盲目开帖的情况,鼓励更多有志于翻译报文的坛友加入,开帖人须至少翻译一篇报文,否则开帖奖励只加2威望。
加分规则:为鼓励翻译,对翻译贴加分可适当宽松。
1、开贴加分:5威望
2、组织加分:开设翻译信息表,贡献值1,维护翻译信息表至台风结束,根据台风维持时间长短再加贡献值2威望3~8。
3、内容加分:全文翻译,视翻译质量加贡献值6-12,要点翻译,视翻译质量贡献值2-5。单个台风,翻译5报以上再加贡献值5,翻译10报以上再加贡献值10。




1。在未来06至24小时,4.2N  138.0E 至 9.6N 129.1E两侧  200 海里的半径范围内,将有显着的热带气旋形成。现有数据并不能支持此时发布热带气旋警告编号。估计该地区的风速为15到20节。 101630Z METSAT卫星云图表明环流中心位于5.0N 136.8E附近。该系统以14节速度往西北移动。

2。 备注:先前位于2.3N 140.5E附近的对流区,现位于5.0N 136.8附近,也就是在帕劳柯若东南约200海里处。红外线卫星动态图像显示深层对流显著增加,对流组织显著改善。101158Z METOP-A 89 GHZ极地轨道卫星图像显示低层环流中心(LLCC)正在整合,形成中的旋臂正卷进更明确的LLCC。101200Z ASCAT风场扫描显示拉长了的带有15-20节风力的环流,并在北半圆带有零散25节的风羽。柯若地面实测显示东南偏东风约10节,海平面气压为1006毫巴,较24小时前下降1.5毫巴。10/12Z上层气流实测反映改善中的极向外流,流进一个位于系统北到东北方(沿着北纬10度)的一个狭长的高空冷涡,垂直风切偏低。最高持续风速估计在15到20节。最低海平面气压估计近1004 MB。在未来24小时内,发展为热带气旋的可能性为高。

3。 此警报将于111700Z重发,升级或取消。

WTPN21 PGTW 101700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 138.0E TO 9.6N 129.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101630Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 136.8E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
 

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.3N
140.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 101158Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. A 101200Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND
SOME ISOLATED 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR INDICATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10
KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1006 MB AND A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 1.5 MB.
THE 10/12Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM KOROR SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT
GRADIENT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A NARROW TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
(ALONG 10N LATITUDE) WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111700Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp9013.gif


[幻翼の勇者于2014-06-25 03:30编辑了帖子]
6条评分, 贡献值 +13 威望 +8
喜欢0 评分6
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
spidyl2009
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论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2013-11-12 14:21
TCFA 11/1700Z 重发
1。在未来06至24小时,6.2N  130.7E 至 9.8N 121.5E两侧  190 海里的半径范围内,将有显着的热带气旋形成。现有数据并不能支持此时发布热带气旋警告编号。估计该地区的风速为18到23节。 111530Z METSAT卫星云图表明环流中心位于6.8N 129.9E附近。该系统以19节速度往西北移动。
 
2。 备注:先前位于5.0N 136.8E附近的对流区,现位于6.8N 129.9附近,也就是在菲律宾三宝颜以东约473海里处。红外线卫星动态图像(ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY)显示低层环流中心(LLCC)正在整合,伴有间中爆发的深层对流。111231Z METOP-A 89 GHZ极地轨道卫星图像显示低层环流中心(LLCC)半裸,大部分对流被风切至系统西象限。111231Z ASCAT风场扫描显示拉长了的,带有20节风力的环流,并在北半圆带有零散25节的风羽。上层气流实测反映低垂直风切(5-10节),良好辐散。最高持续风速估计在18到23节。最低海平面气压估计近1003 MB。在未来24小时内,发展为热带气旋的可能性仍为高。

3。 此警报将于121700Z重发,升级或取消。

图片:wp9013.gif



图片:90W_111700sair.jpg


WTPN21 PGTW 111700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101651Z NOV 13//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 101700)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.2N 130.7E TO 9.8N 121.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.8N 129.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0N
136.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 473 NM EAST OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. AN 111231Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
OFF TO THE WESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. AN 111231Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS WITH SOME
ISOLATED 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121700Z.//
NNNN
[spidyl2009于2013-11-13 15:02编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +5
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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spidyl2009
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-07-15
  • 最后登录2017-05-23
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  • 关注46
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2楼#
发布于:2013-11-13 10:08
TCFA 12/1700Z 重发
1。在未来12至24小时,8.3N  125.1E 至 10.2N 118.0E两侧  175 海里的半径范围内,将有显着的热带气旋形成。现有数据并不能支持此时发布热带气旋警告编号。估计该地区的风速为18到23节。 121530Z METSAT卫星云图表明环流中心位于8.4N 124.6E附近。该系统以10节速度往西移动。
2。 备注:先前位于6.8N 129.9E附近的对流区,现位于8.4N 124.6附近,也就是在菲律宾三宝颜东北偏东约176海里处。红外线卫星动态图像(ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY)显示低层环流中心(LLCC)不明确,伴有间中爆发的深层对流。121140Z SSMIS 91GHz 微波影像低层环流中心(LLCC)广阔而且半裸,大部分对流被风切切离至系统的西象限。最近的风场扫描亦显示广阔的环流,带有20节风羽和间歇性的25节风羽在系统北半圆。上层气流实测反映低垂直风切(5-10节),良好辐散。最高持续风速估计在18到23节。最低海平面气压估计近1003 MB。在未来24小时内,发展为热带气旋的可能性仍为高。

3。 此警报将于131700Z重发,升级或取消。

图片:wp9013.gif


图片:90W_121700sair.jpg



WTPN21 PGTW 121700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121651Z NOV 13//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 121700)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3N 125.1E TO 10.2N 118.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 121530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.4N 124.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8N
129.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 124.6E, APPROXIMATELY 176 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 121140Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WESTERN QUADRANTS OF
THE SYSTEM. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS ALSO SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WIND BARBS AND ISOLATED 25 KNOT WIND BARBS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5
TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131700Z.
//
NNNN
[spidyl2009于2013-11-13 15:01编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +5
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
spidyl2009
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-07-15
  • 最后登录2017-05-23
  • 粉丝137
  • 关注46
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3楼#
发布于:2013-11-14 23:16
TCFA 14/1200Z 再发
(编按:由于小J此刻忽然命名,刚在20小时前取消TCFA的老J更像是被迫追发正式警报,此TCFA更具他义多于实际,所述理由未必值得过于重视)

1。在未来12至24小时,11.8N  113.8E 至 11.4N 106.3E两侧  160 海里的半径范围内,将有显着的热带气旋形成。现有数据并不能支持此时发布热带气旋警告编号。估计该地区的风速为18到23节。 140600Z METSAT卫星云图表明环流中心位于11.7N 113.1E附近。该系统以17节速度往西移动。

2。 备注:先前位于11.6N 114.8E附近的对流区,现位于11.7N 113.1附近,也就是在越南顺化东南约430海里处。红外线卫星动态图像(ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY)显示低层环流中心(LLCC)正在整合,西边的深层对流有所改善。140748Z TRMM 微波影像显示低层环流中心(LLCC)变得较为明确,深层对流开始沿着南半圆卷进LLCC。上层气流实测反映边界性(一般)的环境,中度垂直风切舒缓至中度(10-20节),与高层东风分流(有利外流)的作用相反。最高持续风速估计在18到23节。最低海平面气压估计近1005 MB。因为低层结构改善以及对流增加,在未来24小时内,发展为热带气旋的可能性仍为高。

 3。 此警报将于151200Z或之前重发,升级或取消。

图片:tcfa.png



WTPN21 PGTW 141200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 113.8E TO 11.4N 106.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 113.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.


2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6N
114.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 113.1E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK. A 140748Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE DEFINITION OF THE LLCC
AS DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CICLE OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY RELAXED TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) LEVELS WHICH IS COUNTERING DIFFLUENT
EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVEMENT IN LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AND INCREASE IN
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151200Z.//
NNNN
[spidyl2009于2013-11-14 23:47编辑了帖子]
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浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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spidyl2009
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发布于:2013-11-15 00:33
杨柳预报理由翻译帖 #01 11月14日23时 (111415Z)
1.供气象人员使用

2. 六小时总结与分析:
热带低气压32W杨柳,位于胡志明市东北偏东约294海里,过去六小时以15节向西移动。红外线(IR)卫星动态图像反
映快速整合的系统,深层对刘开始沿着低层环流中心(LLCC)建立,不过大部分深层对流继续被切离向西。130748Z TRMM 微波影像揭示LLCC变得更明确以及深层对流开始卷进中心。因为IR重播影像模糊,LLCC受对流阻碍,目前定位可信性低。目前强度25节乃基于PGTW和KNES的德法分析得出相同的估值。上层气流分析显示边界性(一般)的环境,中度垂直风切轻微舒缓至中度(10-20节),与高层东风散流的作用相反。热带低气压32W正沿着盘踞在北的低到中层副热带高压脊,向西移动。

3A. 此为初报理由,设定预报理论基础。

B. 热带低气压杨柳在副高引导下会大致向西到西南偏西移动,并在未来12小时登陆并横过越南南部,杨柳将开始受地型侵蚀而减弱,并在24小时后的更新报发出前完全消散。因为南海海面温度较暖(约摄氏27度)以及中等程度辐散,即使杨柳靠近陆地,它在登陆前仍会稍微增强。数值预报共识路径紧密,大多同意西到西南偏西的路径,而COTC和GFDN则因可信性低的定位,反映较西南的路径。我们的预测路径位于共识路径以北,此乃以共识路径为基础,再剔除上述两个模型的预报路径后得出的结果,整体可信性低。

图片:wp3213.gif



图片:32W_141130sair.jpg



WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (PODUL)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 32W (PODUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294
NM EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM AS
DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BUILD ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 140748Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE DEFINITION OF THE LLCC AS DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO SOME AMBIGUITY IN THE IR
LOOP AS THE CONVECTION IS OBSCURING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE
SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY
RELAXED TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) LEVELS WHICH IS COUNTERING
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW. TD 32W IS TRACKING WEST ALONG A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ENTRENCHED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.

3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD PODUL IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN VIETNAM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WEAKEN AFTERWARDS AS THE
LAND EFFECTS ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 24.
DESPITE LANDFALL BY TAU 12, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(APPROXIMATELY 27 DEGREES CELSIUS) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
MODERATELY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DESPITE COTC AND GFDN
TRACKING THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
IS LOW, WHICH IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE COTC AND GFDN SOLUTIONS.//
NNNN
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浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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spidyl2009
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发布于:2013-11-15 10:14
杨柳预报理由翻译帖 #2 11月15日5时 (111421Z)
1.供气象人员使用

2. 六小时总结与分析:
热带低气压32W杨柳,位于越南胡志明市东北偏东约213海里,过去六小时以14节向西移动。红外线(IR)卫星动态图像反映缺乏组织的低层环流中心(LLCC),大范围的持续深层对流被切离往西北象限。141753Z NOAA-19 极地轨道卫星89GHZ影像揭示低层结构不明确,在北半圆只有有限的对流旋臂。就141630Z的OCEANSAT影像进行的模糊比分析,旋转环流应在目前位置附近但。。。整体来说,因为结构较弱和缺乏高解析度的微波影像,目前定位可信性低。最近的风场扫描支持目前强度25节,在北和西象限有20-25节的风羽。船舶报告亦反映20-25节风力以及海平面气压最低1006hPa。上层气流分析显示边界性(一般)的环境,垂直风切低至中度,但高层东风散流强劲。热带低气压32W正沿着盘踞在北的低到中层副热带高压脊,向西移动。

3A. 预报理由无改变。
B. 热带低气压32W杨柳会大致向西移动,并在未来6小时在越南东南沿岸登陆,数值预报共识良好,因此,我们的预测路径位于共识路径附近。整体来讲,我们的预测可信性低,主要是因为分析定位不确定。不过,向西移动路径可信性高。热带低气压32W预料会在12小时后消散,但消散可能因登陆而提早。系统残余预料在36小时后会进入孟加拉湾,根据预报模型,此系统在72小时后有一些重生的潜力。

WDPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (PODUL)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 32W (PODUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 141753Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS
OF A 141630Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWS A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CURRENT POSITION BUT, OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE WEAK STRUCTURE AND
LACK OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 25 KNOTS AND SHOWS 20
TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTH AND WESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC.
SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WITH SLP AS LOW
AS 1006 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG
DIFFLUENCE. TD 32W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
 

3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 32W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF VIETNAM BY TAU 06. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST PRIMARILY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE ANALYSIS
POSITION, HOWEVER, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE WESTWARD TRACK
SCENARIO. TD 32W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AFTER TAU 12 BUT COULD
DISSIPATE EARLIER AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM
ARE FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 36 WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION AFTER TAU 72 INDICATED IN THE MODEL
FIELDS.//
[spidyl2009于2013-11-15 10:53编辑了帖子]
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浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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亚特伟达
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发布于:2014-01-17 11:08
哇哦哦  好专业
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n4u2e7
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发布于:2014-03-17 17:52
这么深奥啊!!!
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