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[报文翻译]2013-30号“海燕”台风(31W.Haiyan)之JTWC預報理由翻譯帖

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更多 发布于:2013-11-03 18:32
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说明: 1、由于该热带系统未来发展态势良好,且可能影响我国南部沿海,所以特开此贴。 2、本贴翻译JTWC报文,时间以協調世界時的作准。 3、翻译前为防止重复翻译原则上需要预约,可以直接回帖预约或发私信至开帖人预约。 4、为信息展示需要,请将报文原文和译文放置于同一楼层若回帖预约的,请将翻译放在预约帖 5、有时间的童鞋建议全文翻译,我们也鼓励抓要点进行简单翻译,简单翻译的要点: 发报时定位,过去的移动速度、结构、强度、环境场,未来的强度、路径、环境场,数值的预测6、本帖不允许发与翻译和预约不相符的内容,否则将被视为灌水删帖处理。 7、翻译中若若有其他任何疑惑,欢迎加入翻译小组QQ群280857254加入我们的讨论。
组织规则: 1.默认开帖人为组织人,负责更新首楼的翻译信息表。有多人开贴,同“抢扰动”规则,只保留一个帖子。若开帖人无时间组织,可委托管理团队组织。 2.为避免盲目开帖的情况,鼓励更多有志于翻译报文的坛友加入,开帖人须至少翻译一篇报文,否则开帖奖励只加2威望。 加分规则:为鼓励翻译,对翻译贴加分可适当宽松。 1、开贴加分:5威望 2、组织加分:开设翻译信息表,贡献值1,维护翻译信息表至台风结束,根据台风维持时间长短再加贡献值2威望3~8。 3、内容加分:全文翻译,视翻译质量加贡献值6-12,要点翻译,视翻译质量贡献值2-5。单个台风,翻译5报以上再加贡献值5,翻译10报以上再加贡献值10。
[幻翼の勇者于2014-06-25 03:22编辑了帖子]
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    2013-11-15 17:20
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我不知道我的茉莉何時才能來到我的身邊,但是我真的很希望,我未來能夠找到她,找到一個願意容忍我內向的性格、弱小的身體、普通的外貌、口吃的問題、還有我一切的缺點,並且能欣賞到我內心的美麗的人。希望,未來有一天,我真的能找到我的茉莉吧。
Luigi728
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1楼#
发布于:2013-11-05 20:31
請大家踴躍翻譯!你的努力會得到回報的!
我不知道我的茉莉何時才能來到我的身邊,但是我真的很希望,我未來能夠找到她,找到一個願意容忍我內向的性格、弱小的身體、普通的外貌、口吃的問題、還有我一切的缺點,並且能欣賞到我內心的美麗的人。希望,未來有一天,我真的能找到我的茉莉吧。
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spidyl2009
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2楼#
发布于:2013-11-05 20:41
Luigi728锛氄埓蠹役x躍翻譯!你的努力會得到回報的!鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
你也可以自己来翻译阿。:) P.S.请更新罗莎的目录。
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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Luigi728
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发布于:2013-11-05 21:02
spidyl2009锛毮阋部梢宰约豪捶氚ⅰ#海.S.请更新罗莎的目录。鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
哦對了羅莎那個目錄自從羅莎消亡以後我就忘記了,我現在就去更新
我不知道我的茉莉何時才能來到我的身邊,但是我真的很希望,我未來能夠找到她,找到一個願意容忍我內向的性格、弱小的身體、普通的外貌、口吃的問題、還有我一切的缺點,並且能欣賞到我內心的美麗的人。希望,未來有一天,我真的能找到我的茉莉吧。
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spidyl2009
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4楼#
发布于:2013-11-07 10:19
海燕预报理由翻译帖 #16 11月7日11时 (110703Z)
1.供气象人员使用

2. 六小时总结与分析:
超强台风31W海燕,位于帕劳柯若西北方约123海里,在过去六小时以16节向西北偏西移动。动态多频卫星图像(ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY)显示31W保持深层对流眼墙,PGTW,KNES,RJTD的德法分析维持150节的目前强度。移动路径沿路的海面温度(SSTS)继续非常有利,提供大量表面热能,在过去数小时支持31W的超强台风强度。上层分析显示有利的环境,有着接近完整的高反辐散,以及低(5-10节)的垂直风切。超强台风31W正在盤踞在北的深层副高压脊引导下,沿着其南面边缘移动。
 
3A. 预报理由没有改变

B. 超强台风31W预料会保持偏西路径沿着副高南侧前进,在72小时后变成西北偏西路径。基于非常有利的环境条件,此系统预料会在未来24小时内维持超强台风强度,24小时后将会在菲律宾登陆;登陆将影响其低层流入,导致其进入轻微减弱的趋势直至72小时后。当31W进入南中国海,水面温度(SSTS)会开始慢慢降低,相连的表面潜热将无法支持较强的超强台风强度。

C. 展望,预计在72小时后,当31W经过南海西部海域一般的(边界性的)海面温度,以及开始遇到陆地,将会减弱,并在稍早于96小时后的跟踪区更新(TAU 96)发出前登陆。当系统移进东南亚地区的中部,陆地会导致低层结构会更快速的减弱。数值预报共识在整个预报时段维持接近,故此,我们的预测可信性高。

图片:wp3113.gif


 

图片:31W_062330sams.jpg



WDPN33 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM
NORTHWEST OF
KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS STY
31W HAS MAINTAINED THE DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL, WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD MAINTAINING THE CURRENT
INTENSITY AT 150 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ALONG THE
TRACK REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE PROVIDING AMPLE SURFACE HEATING,
SUPPORTING THE SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STY 31W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.

3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY
TAU 72. DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LANDFALL WITH THE PHILIPPINES IS ANTICIPATED AROUND TAU 24
AND WILL START TO IMPACT THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, LEADING TO A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72. STY 31W WILL TRACK INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS) WHERE SSTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HEAT POTENTIAL WILL NOT SUPPORT THE
STRONGER SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES.

   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU
72 AS IT TRACKS OVER MARGINAL SSTS IN THE WESTERN SCS AND BEGINS TO
ENCOUNTER LAND, MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 96, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN ASIA. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED TAUS,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
[spidyl2009于2013-11-07 23:46编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 贡献值 +15
  • iam最小值
    贡献值 +10
    翻译10报及以上
    2013-11-15 17:21
  • iam最小值
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    优秀帖
    2013-11-15 17:05
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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spidyl2009
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5楼#
发布于:2013-11-07 22:43
海燕预报理由翻译帖 #18 11月7日23时 (110715Z)
1.供气象人员使用
 
2. 六小时总结与分析:

超强台风31W海燕,位于马尼拉东南偏东约543海里,在过去六小时以22节向西北偏西移动。动态加强红外线卫星图像( ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, EIR)显示超强台风31W保持尖锐(清晰)而明确的风眼,并具有多层同心环型环流与深层对流眼墙。071100Z的SSMIS微波影像显示,有一强烈对流旋臂在系统西北外围卷过(并将湿气餵进台风),而且有一深色的环状深层对流勾画出眼墙的冷云顶温度。目前定位乃根据EIR动态图像中的风眼,可信性高。目前强度乃根据最近的PGTW,KNES的德法分析达170节的强度。 移动路径沿路的海面温度(SSTS)继续非常有利,提供大量表面热能,并在过去数小时支持31W的超强台风强度。上层分析显示有利的环境,有着接近完整的高反辐散,以及低(5-10节)垂直风切。超强台风31W正在盤踞在北的深层副高压脊引导下,沿着其南面边缘移动。
 
3A. 预报理由没有明显改变
 
B. 超强台风31W预料会保持西北偏西路径沿着副高南面边缘前进,在48小时后变成西北路径。基于极端有利的环境条件和最近的增强,此系统预料会在未来24小时内维持超强台风强度,并将会在12小时后在菲律宾登陆;登陆将影响其低层流入,导致其进入轻微减弱的趋势直至72小时后。当31W进入南中国海,水面温度(SSTS)会开始慢慢降低,相连的表面潜热将无法支持较强的超强台风强度。

C. 展望:预计在72小时后,31W会开始遇到陆地,其低层结构将会更快速地减弱。数值预报共识在整个预报时段维持接近,并开始反映系统通过越南北部后,将拐弯并进入中国南部。故此,我们的预测可信性高。
.

图片:wp3113.gif



图片:31W_071132sair.jpg



WDPN33 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS STY 31W HAS MAINTAINED A SHARPLY DEFINED EYE WITH
MULTIPLE CONCENTRIC RINGS AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL. A 071100Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A STRONG FEEDER BAND WRAPPING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS A DARK RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION OUTLINING THE COLD CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE EYEWALL.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATING AN INTENSITY NEAR 170 KNOTS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ALONG THE TRACK REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE
PROVIDING AMPLE SURFACE HEATING, SUPPORTING THE SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. STY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH.

 3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY
TAU 48. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND
RECENT INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER
TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL WITH THE PHILIPPINES
IS ANTICIPATED NEAR TAU 12 AND WILL START TO IMPACT THE LOW LEVEL
INFLOW, LEADING TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72. STY 31W WILL
TRACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) WHERE SSTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE,
AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HEAT POTENTIAL WILL NOT SUPPORT THE STRONGER
SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES.

   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU
72 AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LAND, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORE RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED TAUS AND ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE A
RECURVE SCENARIO AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM AND INTO
SOUTHERN CHINA; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN
[spidyl2009于2013-11-08 01:02编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +6
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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spidyl2009
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发布于:2013-11-08 09:55
海燕预报理由翻译帖 #19 11月8日05时 (110721Z)
1.供气象人员使用

2. 六小时总结与分析:

超强台风31W海燕,位于马尼拉东南约425海里,在过去六小时以21节向西移动。动态加强红外线卫星图像( ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, EIR)显示在非常有利的环境下,一个近乎轮状的眼墙继续扩张。目前强度增至170节,乃基于PGTW,KNES,RJTD的德法8.0/8.0的估值。在过去数小时,眼墙西侧外围已开始移至菲律宾东部岛屿上方。而沿着系统西外围,有一强劲的次要喂饲者旋臂(注1)亦已移至菲律宾中部,并因掠过菲律宾而开始减弱,但仍从西侧继续支援低层流入。上层分析显示强劲完整的高反辐散形态,为结实的低层流入提供非常有利的外流。垂直风切仍然非常低(少于5节),容许良好的垂直输送支持以及从EIR可见最近的增强。超强台风31W正在北面的深层副热带高压脊引导下,沿着其南面边缘移动。

3A. 预报理由没有明显改变

B. 超强台风31W预料会保持西北偏西路径沿着副高南面边缘前进,并在48-72小时后发出的更新报之间变成西北路径。基于极端有利的环境条件和最近的增强,此系统预料会在未来24小时内维持超强台风强度。如之前所述,登陆已经开始,西部外围已开始移致菲律宾东部半岛上空。系统经过菲律宾的时候,低层摩擦效应会稍微增加,再加上逐渐下降的海面温度,将造成余下预测时段里的强度下降。由于首48小时环境仍属于边界性(一般)至良好, 减弱趋势初时较慢,但随着系统靠近越南沿岸,减弱趋势将会因陆地和较低沿岸水温而扩大。(在越南)登陆预计约在60小时后,陆地摩擦会导致低层结构更快速地减弱。

C. 展望:至96小时后,31W会采取较为西北的路径,进入越南北部,当环流开始与位于中国中部的中纬低槽互动,将转为东北路径。在陆地上移动所产生的摩擦,以及中纬度西风破坏系统上层支援,会导致系统快速减弱,系统将于120小时后完全消散。由于数值预报共识维持接近,我们的预测可信性高。
 
注1: 喂饲者旋臂/供应者旋臂 (feeder band): 其实也是对流旋臂的一种,处台风外围,该区因环境有利而对流发达,同时将该区温暖的海水能量吸起,并与将外围的暖湿空气一起随低层流入“喂进”台风中心供应能量,故曰喂饲旋臂。

图片:wp3113.gif


图片:31W_072330sair.jpg



WDPN33 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS A NEARLY ANNULAR EYEWALL HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 170 KNOTS BASED ON THE 8.0/8.0 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EYEWALL HAS STARTED TO TRACK OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS OF THE PHILIPPINES WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH THE STRONG SECONDARY FEEDER BAND ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. THIS SECONDARY BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE PHILIPPINES, BUT IS STILL SUPPORTING FLOW INTO THE LOW LEVEL ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW TO THE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5 KNOTS), ALLOWING GOOD VERTICAL TRANSPORT AND IS SUPPORTING THE RECENT INTENSITY INCREASES OBSERVED IN EIR. STY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND RECENT INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL WITH THE PHILIPPINES IS BEGINNING AS NOTED EARLIER WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY STARTING TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS OF THE PHILIPPINES. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PHILIPPINES AND A WEAKENING TREND IN THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL LEAD TO INTENSITIES DECREASING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE SLOW AT FIRST AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL TO GOOD THROUGH TAU 48, BUT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM, THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE AMPLIFIED BY GREATER LAND INTERACTION AND LESS THAN FAVORABLE SSTS NEAR THE COAST. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 60, AND WILL CAUSE A MORE AGGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM THROUGH TAU 96, SHIFTING TO A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CHINA. THE TRACK OVER LAND WILL CAUSE A RAPID WEAKENING AS FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS INCREASE AND GREATER INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IMPACTS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, WITH A COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 120. BASED ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[spidyl2009于2013-11-09 15:36编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +6
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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spidyl2009
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发布于:2013-11-08 10:56
海燕预报理由翻译帖 #20 11月8日11时 (110803Z)
1.供气象人员使用

2. 六小时总结与分析:
超强台风31W海燕,位于马尼拉东南约310海里,在过去六小时以22节向西移动。动态加强红外线卫星图像( ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, EIR)显示近乎轮状的眼墙维持,但在过去数小时开始稍微缩小。风眼本身亦随着系统经过菲东岛屿而有所缩小。所有预报机构的德法估值均有所下降,以反映眼墙的深层对流有所减弱,这从EIR可见。基于上述德法估值,目前强度降至160节。上层分析显示强劲完整的高反辐散形态,为结实的低层流入提供非常有利的外流。垂直风切仍然非常低(少于5节),容许良好的垂直输送以及支持从EIR可见最近的增强编按:其实最近已开始减弱)。超强台风31W正在北面的深层副热带高压脊引导下,沿着其南面边缘移动。

3A. 预报理由没有明显改变
B. 超强台风31W预料会保持偏西路径沿着副高南面边缘前进,并在48-72小时更新报之间变成西北路径。基于极端有利的环境条件,此系统预料会在未来24小时内维持超强台风强度。因经过菲律宾而稍微增加的低层摩擦效应,再加上逐渐下降的海面温度,将造成余下预测时段里的强度下降。由于首48小时环境仍属于边界性(一般)至良好, 减弱趋势初时较慢,但随着系统靠近越南沿岸,因更大的陆地影响和较不利的沿岸水温,减弱趋势将会扩大。(在越南)登陆预计约在稍迟于48小时后,陆地摩擦会导致低层结构更快速地减弱。

C. 展望:至96小时后,31W会采取较为西北的路径,进入越南北部。当环流开始与位于中国中部的中纬低槽互动,以及进入副热带高压脊的西北侧,将转为东北路径。在陆地上移动所产生的摩擦,以及中纬度西风破坏系统上层支援,会导致系统快速减弱,系统将于120小时后完全消散。由于数值预报共识维持接近,我们的预测可信性高。

图片:wp3113.gif


图片:31W_072330sams.jpg



WDPN33 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN)
WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS THE NEARLY ANNULAR EYEWALL HAS PERSISTED BUT
IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE EYE
ITSELF HAS ALSO DECREASED IN SIZE AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE
ISLANDS IN THE EASTERN PHILIPPINES. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED
FOR ALL AGENCIES TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF THE EYEWALL OBSERVED IN EIR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN DECREASED TO 160 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS
PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW TO THE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
INFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5 KNOTS),
ALLOWING GOOD VERTICAL TRANSPORT AND IS SUPPORTING THE RECENT
INTENSITY INCREASES OBSERVED IN EIR.
STY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.

3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN
TAU 48 AND 72. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE PHILIPPINES AND A WEAKENING TREND IN THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL LEAD TO INTENSITIES DECREASING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE SLOW AT FIRST
AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL TO GOOD THROUGH TAU 48, BUT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM, THE WEAKENING TREND WILL
BE AMPLIFIED BY GREATER LAND INTERACTION AND LESS THAN FAVORABLE
SSTS NEAR THE COAST. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, AND
WILL CAUSE A MORE AGGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
NORTHWESTERLY INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM THROUGH TAU 96, SHIFTING TO A
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CHINA, AND MOVING TO
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE TRACK OVER LAND WILL
CAUSE A RAPID WEAKENING AS FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS INCREASE AND
GREATER INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IMPACTS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, WITH A COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU
120. BASED ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[spidyl2009于2013-11-08 15:04编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +5
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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spidyl2009
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发布于:2013-11-08 21:57
海燕预报理由翻译帖 #21 11月8日17时 (110809Z)
1.供气象人员使用

2. 六小时总结与分析:
超强台风31W海燕,位于马尼拉东南偏南约214海里,在过去六小时以22节向西移动。动态多频卫星图像(MSI)显示
31W受菲中群岛影响进一步减弱,低层流入持续受地形摩擦阻碍。 动态红外线卫星影像(EIR)进一步显示对流核心开始变浅,风眼持续变小而且受云系覆盖。目前定位乃基于MSI和EIR所见此一细小的带云风眼,以及PGTW和RJTD的定位。目前强度145节乃基于所有预报机构正下降中的德法估值(127-155节),以及反映整体系统结构有所减弱。上层分析显示系统维持强劲的高反辐散,以及低垂直风切(5-10节)。超强台风31W正在北面的深层副热带高压脊引导下,沿着其南面边缘移动。

3A. 预报理由没有改变

B. 初时,超强台风31W预料会保持西北偏西路径沿着副高南面边缘前进,并在48-72小时更新报之间采取较为西北的路径。即使系统因摩擦效应以及风切轻微上升而处于缓慢减弱的趋势,系统(在菲律宾)登陆后也会维持超强台风强度至明日。24小时后,由于南海西部边界性(一般)的海面温度,以及靠近越南时的地形效应,系统的强度将加速下降。约48小时后,31W将在越南中部登陆。登陆后,凹凸不平的地形将使系统快速减弱,并开始消散。

 C. 展望:超强台风31W将与位于中国中部的西风槽互动,将沿着副高轴中的裂缝采取更偏北的路径移动。随着31W横过越南,地形效应会继续侵蚀系统,预料系统将在96小时候完全消散。由于数值预报共识路径紧密,我们的预测可信性高。

图片:wp3113.gif


图片:31W_080530sams.jpg


WDPN33 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR
21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 22
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS STY 31W HAS FURTHER WEAKENED AS THE FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS OF THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS HAVE CONTINUED TO HAMPER
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) FURTHER REVEALS THE CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO
SHALLOW AND THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN SIZE WHILE BECOMING
CLOUD FILLED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THIS SMALL, CLOUD-
FILLED EYE SEEN IN THE MSI AND EIR ANIMATION ALONG WITH POSITION
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 145 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DECREASING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES THAT RANGE FROM 127 TO 155 KNOTS AND THE OVERALL WEAKENING
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW IN AN OVERALL LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. STY 31W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.

3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE EARLY TAUS, STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO
A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, AFTER LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH FOR THE
NEXT DAY DESPITE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND, DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VWS. AFTER TAU 24 A
FASTER DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DUE TO FURTHER DEGRADING
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
WESTERN SOUTH CHINA SEA AND INCREASED LAND INTERACTION AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST OF VIETNAM. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48 OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD ALONG A BREAK IN THE STR AXIS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CHINA. AS STY
31W DRAGS ACROSS VIETNAM, THE LAND EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[spidyl2009于2013-11-09 00:00编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +5
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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spidyl2009
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2013-11-08 23:58
海燕预报理由翻译帖#22 11月8日23时 (110815Z)
1.供气象人员使用

2. 六小时总结与分析:
超强台风31W海燕,位于马尼拉南方约170海里,在过去六小时以20节向西移动。动态加强红外线卫星影像(EIR)显示持续减弱的趋势,风眼仍被云系填满,环绕风眼的对流继续变浅。目前定位乃基于EIR所见此一带云风眼,以及PGTW和RJTD的定位。目前强度135节乃基于所有预报机构正下降中的德法估值(115-155节),以及反映整体系统结构有所减弱。上层分析显示系统维持强劲的高反辐散,以及低垂直风切(5-10节)。台风31W正在北面的深层副热带高压脊引导下,沿着其南面边缘移动。
 
3A. 预报理由没有改变

B. 初时,超强台风31W预料会保持西北偏西路径沿着副高南面边缘前进,并在48-72小时更新报之间采取较为西北的路径。即使系统部份因为前述摩擦效应以及风切轻微上升而处于缓慢减弱的趋势,系统在未来12小时也会维持超强台风强度 。24小时后,基于进一步转差的环境因素--南海西部边界性(一般)的海面温度和靠近越南中部海岸时的地形效应,系统的强度将加速下降。约48小时后,31W将在越南中部登陆。登陆后,凹凸不平的地形将使系统快速减弱,并开始消散。

 C. 展望:超强台风31W将与位于中国中部的西风槽互动,将沿着副高轴中的裂缝采取更偏北的路径移动。随着31W横过越南,地形效应会继续侵蚀系统,预料系统将在96小时候完全消散。由于数值预报共识路径紧密,我们的预测可信性高。

图片:wp3113.gif



图片:31W_081130sair.jpg



WDPN33 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 22//RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTHWARD OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)  
SHOWS A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND AS THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS CONTINUED TO SHALLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THIS CLOUD-FILLED EYE SEEN IN THE EIR ANIMATION ALONG WITH
POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135
KNOTS IS BASED ON DECREASING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES THAT RANGE FROM 115 TO 155 KNOTS AND THE OVERALL
WEAKENING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW IN AN OVERALL LOW
(05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. STY 31W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.

3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE EARLY TAUS, S]TY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO
A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, AFTER LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, DESPITE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WHICH IS IN PART TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VWS.
AFTER TAU 24 A FASTER DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DUE TO
FURTHER DEGRADING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN SOUTH CHINA SEA AND INCREASED LAND
INTERACTION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST OF VIETNAM.
STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48 OVER CENTRAL
VIETNAM. AFTER LANDFALL, THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.

   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD ALONG A BREAK IN THE STR AXIS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CHINA. AS STY
31W DRAGS ACROSS VIETNAM, THE LAND EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[spidyl2009于2013-11-09 09:25编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +5
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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