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[翻译请求]AccuWeather推出25天天气预报引来吐槽...

楼主#
更多 发布于:2012-04-05 01:45

图片:25-day-forecast.jpg?uuid=vG5ESn5nEeG8NgaSd8tu_A


AccuWeather’s forecast for April 23-28 for Washington, D.C., 20-25 days into the future. Forecast information is on the left side, temperatures on the right side are daily averages. ( AccuWeather.com )No it’s not an April Fools’ joke: Accuweather is pushing the limits of weather forecasting and issuing detailed predictions extending 25 days into the future effective today.

Consider me highly skeptical about their value.
Nevermind, the skill in forecasts rapidly deteriorates beyond 5-7 days and is typically no better than judging what the weather will be based on climatology (historical averages). Today, AccuWeather delivers the forecast out to Saturday, April 28 to every zip code in the U.S.
For Washington, D.C. on 4/28, we should expect mostly cloudy skies with “showers around” and a high of 64 and low of 46. But don’t worry, if you buy this unrealistically precise forecast, just two hundredths of an inch of rain will fall - your outdoor picnic won’t be washed out.
Let’s get real for a second: I can hardly say with a lot of confidence whether 0.02” is a good rainfall prediction for today much less more than three weeks from now.
But the folks at AccuWeather are convinced there is value in these forecasts.
“People are really going to find this useful,” Accuweather senior meteorologist Henry Margusity told me. “If you’re doing planning, you’ll have a lot of information.”
Margusity stressed that these long-range forecasts will be complemented with additional data to provide context for the predictions, including normals (averages) and records. He admitted the accuracy will diminish with time, but emphasized users should focus on the trends.

图片:accu-temp-graph.jpg?uuid=VRBXfn5oEeG8NgaSd8tu_A


AccuWeather’s new forecast out to 25 days includes a time series allowing the user to see how forecast temperatures are trending and compare to averages and records. ( AccuWeather.com )“While day 20 and 25 is not going to be the exact temperature… you’re going to be able to see we’re going into colder [or warmer] weather pattern,” he said.

The new forecasting scheme accurately predicted above normal temperatures during the recent Midwest heat wave according to Margusity.
“It caught the warm spell coming,” he said.
The 25-day forecast originates from a variety of datasets and models. Margusity would not divulge specifics about how the forecasts were generated, noting the methods are “proprietary.”
Margusity wasn’t surprised when I expressed my skepticism about these forecasts.
“They’re always doubters,” he said. “People are going to say it can’t be done, but it can be done… we have enough information.”
When I told Wes Junker, CWG’s winter weather expert, about the new 25-day forecast, he wasn’t impressed.
“It gives people a false sense of where the science is,” he said. “[In daily forecasts], there’s no accuracy beyond 7 days at all.”
Junker said there is some skill in providing a forecast for a multi-day period, and how it might compare to average but not in daily details.
“You can’t tell the day the storm is going to be [beyond 7 days],” he said.
CWG’s Steve Tracton, who worked on numerical weather prediction issues for three decades, was harsher in his assessment of the 25-day forecast concept.
“It undermines the credibility of the science of meteorology,” he said.
“There cannot be skill at those ranges - it goes back to chaos theory.”

Tracton wants AccuWeather to objectively demonstrate their forecasts have skill not only out to 25 days but even in the 7-15 day timeframe, something he says they haven’t done.
“Despite many inquiries, they have promised me, but never provided verification statistics,” he said.
He added: “If they can prove their 25 day forecasts have skill, that would be equivalent to demonstrating neutrinos can move faster than the speed of light, violating Einstein’s fundmental theory.”
All of this skepticism notwithstanding, I’m going to give these forecasts a chance.
For the next 25 days, I will keep track of the 25-day forecast for Washington, D.C. and then I’ll evaluate how well they performed compared to climatology (historical averages).
I’ll issue a post-mortem report in late May or early June. Stand by....
 
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那是最美好的时代,那是最糟糕的时代;那是智慧的年头,那是愚昧的年头;那是信仰的时期,那是怀疑的时期;那是光明的季节,那是黑暗的季节;那是希望的春天,那是失望的冬天;我们拥有一切,我们一无所有; 我们全都在直奔天堂,我们全都在直奔相反的方向------简而言之,那时跟现在非常相象,某些最喧嚣的权威坚持要用形容词的最高级来形容它。说它好,是最高级的;说它不好,也是最高级的。 广告贴: http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=73794&fid=65
wth0109
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1楼#
发布于:2014-02-02 10:50
No it’s not an April Fools’ joke: Accuweather is  pushing the limits of weather forecasting and  issuing detailed predictions extending 25 days into  the future effective today.
这不是愚人节笑话。
accuweather正准备把天气预报推向极限,发出在当天有效的未来25天的详细预报。
Consider me highly skeptical about their value.
Nevermind, the skill in forecasts rapidly deteriorates beyond 5-7 days and is typically no better than  judging what the weather will be based on  climatology (historical averages). Today,  AccuWeather delivers the forecast out to Saturday,  April 28 to every zip code in the U.S.
我对这种预报的价值表示高度怀疑。真没想到,即便是如今预报能力在5-7天内迅速降低,而且肯定不如根据气候平均值判断未来天气的情况下,accuweather仍然推出直到0428的全美所有政区的天气预报。
For Washington, D.C. on 4/28, we should expect  mostly cloudy skies with “showers around” and a high of 64 and low of 46. But don’t worry, if you  buy this unrealistically precise forecast, just two  hundredths of an inch of rain will fall - your outdoor  picnic won’t be washed out.
例如在0428的华盛顿特区,我们应该指望几乎被云覆盖的天空和四处的阵雨,以及46F-64F的温度。但不要担心,如果你购买了这个并不现实的精确预报,你就会发现那天仅仅有百分之二的概率会有1英寸的降水--你的户外野餐不会被冲走。
Let’s get real for a second: I can hardly say with a  lot of confidence whether 0.02” is a good rainfall  prediction for today much less more than three  weeks from now.
But the folks at AccuWeather are convinced there is  value in these forecasts.
但我们先不要幻想了。今天的远少于三周内的优秀降水预报是:“我不敢有足够信心,哪怕是百分之二。”但在accuweather的人们却相信这些预报有价值。
“People are really going to find this useful,”  Accuweather senior meteorologist Henry Margusity  told me. “If you’re doing planning, you’ll have a lot of information.”
accuweather的高级气象学家Henry Margusity告诉我:“人们将会真的发现这种预报有用。如果你在做计划,你将拥有许多信息。”
Margusity stressed that these long-range forecasts  will be complemented with additional data to  provide context for the predictions, including  normals (averages) and records. He admitted the  accuracy will diminish with time, but emphasized  users should focus on the trends.
Margusity 强调他们将会用包括平均值和极值的附加数据来为预报提供上下文,从而补充这些长期预报。他也承认这些预报的准确性会随时间推移而降低,但又强调用户应该注重关注趋势。
“While day 20 and 25 is not going  to be the exact temperature… you’re going to be  able to see we’re going into colder [or warmer]  weather pattern,” he said.
The new forecasting scheme accurately predicted  above normal temperatures during the recent  Midwest heat wave according to Margusity.
他还说:“在第20-25天将不会出现准确温度,而是回暖或转冷的天气图案。”另外,根据他的说法,这个新预报系统在最近中西部的热浪中准确地预报了气温的正距平。
“It caught the warm spell coming,” he said.
The 25-day forecast originates from a variety of  datasets and models. Margusity would not divulge  specifics about how the forecasts were generated,  noting the methods are “proprietary.”
他表示:“这个系统捕捉到了温暖时期的来临。”这个25天的预报来自多种数据库和预测模型。但Margusity不愿详细透露预报如何产生,声称这种方法是“专利”。
Margusity wasn’t surprised when I expressed my  skepticism about these forecasts.
“They’re always doubters,” he said. “People  are going to say it can’t be done, but it can be  done… we have enough information.”
Margusity在我表达对这些预报的怀疑时,并没感到吃惊。他表示:“那些人总是怀疑者。即使人们正打算说这样的预报不可能做到,我们也可以凭借足够的信息做到。”
When I told Wes Junker, CWG’s winter weather  expert, about the new 25-day forecast, he wasn’t  impressed.
“It gives people a false sense of where the science  is,” he said. “[In daily forecasts], there’s no  accuracy beyond 7 days at all.”
然而在我把关于最新的25天预报告诉CMG的冬季气象专家Wes Junker时,他并没有被打动。他认为:“这些预报使人们获得一种关于科学的错觉。在日常预报中,超出七天的预报毫无准确度。”Junker said there is some skill in providing a  forecast for a multi-day period, and how it might  compare to average but not in daily details.
“You can’t tell the day the storm is going to be  [beyond 7 days],” he said.
CWG’s Steve Tracton, who worked on numerical  weather prediction issues for three decades, was  harsher in his assessment of the 25-day forecast  concept.
Junk表示他们有能力提供多天的预报,并说明预报如何比作均值而不是每日细节。他说:“你不能告诉人们七天后的风暴袭击的时间。”
CWG’s Steve Tracton, who worked on numerical  weather prediction issues for three decades, was  harsher in his assessment of the 25-day forecast  concept.
“It undermines the credibility of the science of  meteorology,” he said.
“There cannot be skill at those ranges - it goes  back to chaos theory.”
Tracton wants AccuWeather to objectively  demonstrate their forecasts have skill not only out  to 25 days but even in the 7-15 day timeframe,  something he says they haven’t done.
CMG负责三个时期的数值天气预报推出的Steve Tracton对25天预报的评价十分严厉。“这种预报破坏了气象科学的可信性。气象科学不会有这样范围预报的能力,这种预报使它回到了一团糟的理论。”Tracton希望accuweather客观地证明他们的预报不仅希望拥有达到25天的能力。但甚至在7-15天的时间范围内,他们说的并没有被做到。
“Despite many inquiries, they have promised me,  but never provided verification statistics,” he said.
He added: “If they can prove their 25 day forecasts  have skill, that would be equivalent to  demonstrating neutrinos can move faster than the  speed of light , violating Einstein’s fundmental  theory.”
他说:“他们不顾许多质询,已经向我作出了承诺,但从来不提供作为证据的数据。”他还补充:“如果他们可以证明拥有25天预报的能力,这将和证明中微子可以运动得比光速还快一样,违背爱因斯坦的基础理论。”
All of this skepticism notwithstanding, I’m going to give these forecasts a chance.
For the next 25 days, I will keep track of the 25-day  forecast for Washington, D.C. and then I’ll evaluate how well they performed compared to climatology  (historical averages).
I’ll issue a post-mortem report in late May or early June. Stand by....
因为这些所有的质疑都站不住脚,所以为打算给这些预报一个机会。在未来的25天里,我将会跟踪华盛顿特区的天气预报,然后将会和气候平均值进行比较,从而评估他们的表现如何。我将会在五月末或六月初发出一个检讨报告。等着吧。
水平有限,选了个稍微短一点的,自认为有些部分比较蹩脚,欢迎大家指出错误。
[wth0109于2014-02-02 10:56编辑了帖子]
3条评分, 贡献值 +1 金钱 +5 威望 +5
  • wusifeng
    贡献值 +1
    优秀帖
    2014-02-13 17:32
  • fxhopexi
    威望 5
    春节快乐!
    2014-02-02 18:30
  • fxhopexi
    金钱 5
    春节快乐!
    2014-02-02 18:30
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wth0109
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2楼#
发布于:2014-02-02 12:12
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出于好奇,去accuweather看了一下,将近两年后的今天,已经出现45天预报了………而且不是warmer or colder了,而是detail………
[wth0109于2014-02-02 12:52编辑了帖子]
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3楼#
发布于:2014-02-04 21:19
accuweather预报看的是一个长期趋势,不能紧盯那一天的具体预报
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