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[基础教程]厄尔尼诺南方涛动指数(ENSO)

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更多 发布于:2012-01-14 15:50
本篇是基础性的东西,对于学习来说,有些许帮助。
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帖子中涉及地图来源广泛,图中所涉及的行政区域以中国官方认定的为准。
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发布于:2012-01-14 15:53
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
厄尔尼诺 - 南方涛动(ENSO)

图片:elnino_sst.jpg


From December 1997, this image shows the change of sea surface temperature from normal. The bright red colors (water temperatures warmer than normal) in the Eastern Pacific indicates the presence of El Niño.

此图像来自 1997 年 12 月,显示正常的海洋表面温度的变化。鲜艳的红颜色 (水温比正常值温暖) 东太平洋指示厄尔尼诺现象的存在。
 
One of the most prominent aspects of our weather and climate is its variability. This variability ranges from small-scale phenomena such as wind gusts, localized thunderstorms and tornadoes, to larger-scale features such as fronts and storms to multi-seasonal, multi-year, multi-decade and even multi-century time scales.

我们的天气和气候的最突出的方面之一是它的可变性。这种可变性范围很广,小规模的特性,如大风,局部雷暴和龙卷风,也有更大规模的特性,如多季节性的锋面和风暴,时间跨度上有一年,数十年甚至多世纪的变化。
 
Typically, long time-scale events are often associated with changes in atmospheric circulations that encompass vast areas. At times, these persistent circulations occur simultaneously over seemingly unrelated, parts of the hemisphere, and result in abnormal weather, temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide.

通常情况下,长时间大规模的活动往往与包括广大地区的大气环流的变化相关联。有时这些长期存在的环流同时发生,在半侧球看似无关,却会导致全世界的异常天气、 温度和降雨模式的变化。
 
El Niño is one of these naturally occurring phenomenon. The term El Niño (the Christ child) comes from the name Paita sailors called a periodic ocean current because it was observed to appear usually immediately after Christmas. It marked a time with poor fishing conditions as the nutrient rich water off the northwest coast of South America remained very deep. However, over land, this ocean current were heavy rains in very dry regions which produced luxurious vegetation.

厄尔尼诺现象是这些自然现象之一。厄尔尼诺(圣婴)术语是被派塔渔民对周期性洋流名称的称呼,因为观测到它,通常是在圣诞节前后会紧接出现。由于南美洲西北海岸营养丰富的水依然非常深,这标志着渔民捕鱼条件不佳的时候。然而,对陆地来说,这个洋流会在非常干燥的地区产生草木葱茏所需要的大雨。

图片:soi_locations.jpg


 
Further research found that El Niño is actually part of a much larger global variation in the atmosphere called ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation). The Southern Oscillation refers to changes in sea level air pressure patterns in the Southern Pacific Ocean between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.

进一步研究发现,厄尔尼诺现象实际上是一个更大的全球大气中的变化称为ENSO(厄尔尼诺/南方涛动)的一部分。南方涛动是指在海平面在南太平洋塔希提岛和澳大利亚达尔文之间的空气压力模式的变化。
 
During El Niño conditions, the average air pressure is higher in Darwin than in Tahiti. Therefore, the change in air pressures in the South Pacific and water temperature in the East Pacific ocean, 8000 miles away, are related.
 
在厄尔尼诺现象期间,达尔文平均气压高于塔希提岛。因此,在东太平洋,与远在8000英里外的南太平洋水温和空气压力的变化,是相关的。
 
With the occurrence of warmer than normal temperature in the Eastern Pacific it stands to reason that there will be periods where the water temperature will be cooler than normal. The cooler periods are called La Niña. By convention, when you hear the name El Niño it refers to the warm episode of ENSO while the cool episode of ENSO is called La Niña.

随着东太平洋温度高于正常温暖的发生,水温将较正常凉也理所当然的会有周期。较冷的阶段被称为拉尼娜现象。依照惯例,当你听到厄尔尼诺现象这个名字时,它是指暖的ENSO事件,而凉的ENSO事件被称为拉尼娜现象。
 
ENSO is primarily monitored by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), based on pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. The SOI is a mathematical way of smoothing the daily fluctuations in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin and standardizing the information. The added bonus in using the SOI is weather records are more than 100 years long which gives us over a century of ENSO history.

ENSO主要是监测南方涛动指数(SOI),基于塔希提岛和澳大利亚达尔文之间的压力差异。 SOI是在塔希提岛和达尔文之间的空气平滑压力日常波动和标准化信息的一种数学方法。使用SOI的好处是气象记录超过100年之久,这就给我们有超过一个世纪的ENSO历史。

图片:elninozones.jpg


 
Sea surface temperatures are monitored in four regions along the equator:
海洋表面温度监测沿赤道的四个区域:
•    Niño 1 (80°-90°W and 5°-10°S)
•    Niño 2 (80°-90°W and 0°-5°S)
•    Niño 3 (90°-150°W and 5°N-5°S)
•    Niño 4 (150°-160°E and 5°N-5°S)
These regions were created in the early 1980s. Since then, continued research has lead to modifications of these original regions. The original Niño 1 and Niño 2 are now combined and is called Niño 1+2. A new region, called Niño 3.4 (120°-150°W and 5°N-5°S) is now used as it corrolates better with the Southern Oscillation Index and is the prefered region to monitor sea surface temperature.
 
八十年代初创建了这些地区。自那时以来,继续的研究已经导致了这些原始区域的修改。原始厄尔尼诺现象 1 与厄尔尼诺现象 2 现在合并,称为厄尔尼诺现象 1+2。现在使用一个新的区域,称为厄尔尼诺现象 3.4 (120 °-150 ° W 和 5 ° N-5 ° S) corrolates 更好的监测南方涛动指数和海面温度的首选区域。
 

图片:soi_nino34.jpg


 The two graphs (right) shows this corrolation. The top graph shows the change in water temperature from normal for Niño 3.4. The bottom graph shows the southern oscillation index for the same period. When the pressure in Tahiti is lower than Darwin, Australia the temperature in Niño 3.4 is higher than normal and El Niño is occurring; the warm episode of ENSO.
 
这两个图(右)显示此corrolation。此页最上方的图显示正常厄尔尼诺3.4水温的变化。底部图显示为同一时期的南方涛动指数。当在塔希提岛的压力低于澳大利亚达尔文,厄尔尼诺3.4温度高于正常,厄尔尼诺现象ENSO暖事件就发生了 。
 
Conversely, when the pressure in Tahiti is higher than Darwin, Australia the temperature in Niño 3.4 is lower than normal and La Niña is occurring; the cool episode of ENSO.
 
相反,当塔希提岛的气压高于澳大利亚达尔文,厄尔尼诺3.4的温度低于正常,拉尼娜现象就发生ENSO冷事件。
 
What is suprising is these changes in sea surface temperatures are not large, plus or minus 6°F (3°C) and generally much less. However these minor changes can have large effects our global weather patterns.
 
令人意外的是,上述在海面温度变化并不大,加上或减去6° F(3°C),而且一般要少得多。但是,这些细微的变化可以对我们的全球气候模式有很大的影响。
 
 
 
帖子中涉及地图来源广泛,图中所涉及的行政区域以中国官方认定的为准。
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发布于:2012-01-14 17:15
Effects of ENSO in the Pacific
ENSO在太平洋的影响
 Normal Conditions
正常情况下

图片:1.jpg


 
 Normally, sea surface temperature is about 14°F higher in the Western Pacific than the waters off South America.

通常情况下,西太平洋海面温度高于南美洲海域温度约 14 °F。
 
This is due to the trade winds blowing from east to west along the equator allowing the upwelling of cold, nutrient rich water from deeper levels off the northwest coast of South America.

这是由于沿赤道从东到西吹的信风,使南美洲西北海岸营养丰富的水从更深层次上涌。
 
Also, these same trade winds push water west which piles higher in the Western Pacific. The average sea-level height is about 1;frac12; feet higher at Indonesia than at Peru.

此外,这些相同的信风推动水,堆积在西面的西太平洋。使印尼海平面平均高度高于秘鲁海平面约1个半英尺。
 
The trade winds, in piling up water in the Western Pacific, make a deep 450 feet (150 meter) warm layer in the west that pushes the thermocline down there, while it rises in the east.

信风从东方吹过来,推动那里深450英尺(150米)的温跃层水往西面,堆砌在西太平洋地区。
 
The shallow 90 feet (30 meter) eastern thermocline allows the winds to pull up water from below, water that is generally much richer in nutrients than the surface layer.

90 英尺 (30 米) 的东部温跃层浅层,允许风从下面拉起水,水一般比表面层有更丰富的营养成分。
 El Niño Conditions
厄尔尼诺现象

图片:2.jpg


 
 However, when the air pressure patterns in the South Pacific reverse direction (the air pressure at Darwin, Australia is higher than at Tahiti), the trade winds decrease in strength (and can reverse direction).
 
然而,当气压模式在南太平洋的反方向(澳大利亚达尔文的气压,高于塔希提岛)信风实力下降(和可以逆转方向)。
 
The result is the normal flow of water away from South America decreases and ocean water piles up off South America. This pushes the thermocline deeper and a decrease in the upwelling.
 
其结果是来自南美洲正常的水的流量减少和南美海域海水堆积、海水上升停止。这将推动温跃层更深,上涌幅度降低。
 
With a deeper thermocline and decreased westward transport of water, the sea surface temperature increasesto greater than normal in the Eastern Pacific. This is the warm phase of ENSO, called El Niño.
 
有了更深的温跃层和向西运送水的减少,在东太平洋海洋表面温度升高大于正常。这就是的ENSO暖相位,称为厄尔尼诺现象。
 
The net result is a shift of the prevailing rain pattern from the normal Western Pacific to the Central Pacific. The effect is the rainfall is more common in the Central Pacific while the Western Pacific becomes relatively dry.
 
其最终结果是使正常的西太平洋、太平洋中部当前的降雨模式转变。造成降雨在中部太平洋地区较为常见,而西太平洋变得比较干燥。
  La Niña Conditions
拉尼娜现象

图片:3.jpg


 
 
There are occasions when the trade winds that blow west across the tropical Pacific are stronger than normal leading to increased upwelling off South America and hence thelower than normal sea surface temperatures.
 
有时候,当向西横跨热带太平洋的信风强于正常,导致南美上升流增加,因此海温低于正常海水表面温度。
 
The prevailing rain pattern also shifts farther west than normal. These winds pile up warm surface water in the West Pacific. This is the cool phase of ENSO called La Niña.
 
西面当时的降雨模式的变化远高于正常。这些风使温暖表层水堆积在西太平洋。这是凉的ENSO阶段叫做拉尼娜。
 
What is surprising is these changes in sea surface temperatures are not large, plus or minus 6°F (3°C) and generally much less.
 
令人意外的是这些海洋表面温度的变化都不大,加或减 6 ° F (3 ° C) 而且一般要少得多。
 
 
 
 
 
帖子中涉及地图来源广泛,图中所涉及的行政区域以中国官方认定的为准。
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发布于:2012-01-14 19:06
Weather Impacts of ENSO
ENSO 的天气影响
 
The Jetstream
急流

图片:el_vs_la_jetstream.jpg


 
El Niño effect during December through February
12 月至 2 月期间厄尔尼诺的影响

图片:111.jpg


 
 
El Niño effect during June through August
6 月至 8 月期间厄尔尼诺的影响

图片:112.jpg


 
 
La Niña effect during December through February
12 月至 2 月期间拉尼娜效应

图片:113.jpg


 
 
La Niña effect during June through August
6 月至 8 月期间拉尼娜效应

图片:114.jpg


 
 
As the position of the warm water along the equator shifts back and forth across the Pacific Ocean, the position where the greatest evaporation of water into the atmosphere also shifts with it. This has a profound effect on the average position of the jet stream which, in turn, effects the storm track.
随着温水沿赤道的位置来回转移横跨太平洋,最大的水分蒸发进入大气的位置也随着它转移。这对急流平均位置产生深远的影响,这反过来影响风暴的路径。
During El Niño (warm phase of ENSO), the jet stream's position shows a dip in the Eastern Pacific. The stronger the El Niño, the farther east in the Eastern Pacific the dip in the jetstream occurs. Conversely, during La Niña's, this dip in the jet stream shifts west of its normal position toward the Central Pacific.
厄尔尼诺(ENSO暖位相)期间,急流的位置在东太平洋中显示下降。较强的厄尔尼诺现象,在遥远东太平洋东部急流发生下降。相反,在拉尼娜现象,急流下降在太平洋中部的正常位置,向西转移。
The position of this dip in the jet stream, called a trough, can have a huge effect on the type of weather experienced in North America.
这种下降位置的急流,称为槽,对在北美经历的天气类型中,可以有很大的影响。
During the warm episode of ENSO (El Niño) the eastern shift in the trough typically sends the storm track, with huge amounts of tropical moisture, into California, south of its normal position of the Pacific Northwest.
ENSO (厄尔尼诺) 期间,槽的东部转移通常发送风暴,大量的热带水分进入加利福尼亚州南部。它的正常位置应在太平洋西北部。
Very strong El Niños will cause the trough to shift further south with the average storm track position moving into Southern California.
非常强烈的厄尔尼诺现象将导致槽转移到南加州,风暴的平均移动路径位置进一步向南。
During these times, rainfall in California can be significantly above normal, leading to numerous occurrences of flash flood and debris flows. With the storm track shifted south, the Pacific Northwest becomes drier and drier as the tropical moisture is shunted south of the region.
在这些时候,在加利福尼亚州的降雨量可显著高于正常,导致发生众多的山洪和泥石流。随着风暴的路径转向南,西北太平洋地区变得干燥、少雨,如热带水分被调到更南的地区。
The maps (right) show the regions where the greatest impacts due to the shift in the jet stream as a result of ENSO.
所在地区的地图(右)显示,由于ENSO的移位对急流的影响最大。
 
 
Tropical Cyclones
热带气旋。
 
Tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic is more sensitive to El Niño influences than in any other ocean basin. In years with moderate to strong El Niño, the North Atlantic basin experiences:
在北大西洋的热带气旋活动,比在其他大洋海域对厄尔尼诺影响更为敏感。在过去几年中强厄尔尼诺,北大西洋海域的经历:
•    A substantial reduction in cyclone numbers,
•    A 60% reduction in numbers of hurricane days, and
•    An overall reduction in system intensity.
•气旋数目大幅减少,
•在飓风天数减少60%,
•系统强度的整体减少。
This significant change is believed to be due to stronger than normal westerly winds that develop in the western North Atlantic and Caribbean region during El Niño years. Other regions around the world show no affect or are only slightly affected.
这显著的变化被认为是:由于在北大西洋西部和加勒比地区,厄尔尼诺年的正常西风比非厄尔尼诺年发展更强。世界各地的其他区域没有影响或只有轻微的影响。
The table (above right) gives the trend in number and intensity of cyclones around the world due to the effects of El Niño. (However, as with most meteorological phenomena, there are always exceptions to these trends).
表中(右上图),给出了在世界各地的气旋,由于厄尔尼诺现象影响的数量和强度趋势。 (但是,与大多数气象现象一样,这些趋势总有例外)。
附件.doc
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
帖子中涉及地图来源广泛,图中所涉及的行政区域以中国官方认定的为准。
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发布于:2014-05-20 09:45
看完了,有些图没有,翻译的还行  ~~
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easy
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发布于:2015-01-10 09:59
很好的科普文章啊,学到了很多。但仍然有两个疑问:1.急流下沉的位置为什么会变化泥,急流说的是高层吗;2. 急流的下沉跟中低层是怎样的配置,以及会带来怎样的天气呢。谢谢
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发布于:2015-03-16 23:03
我是新手,目前在墨尔本留学,我的毕业论文是关于SOI和极端降雨的课题,这边文章很有参考价值,但是我不能下载,希望楼主可以发文件到我的email里,在此多谢了,renwei888@yahoo.com.au
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发布于:2017-03-05 13:03
看了度娘不是很明白 现在懂了很多
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