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[定期翻译]ENSO监测翻译

楼主#
更多 发布于:2011-11-11 22:57

考虑到现在翻译的同志越来越多,所以开这个帖子,有兴趣的筒靴可以定期翻译

首次翻译奖励30好评 30贡献

UPDATE:后续每次翻译 15贡献 10好评

具体地址:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


La Niña conditions have strengthened slightly over the past fortnight, with some, but not all, atmospheric and oceanic indicators intensifying. Forecast models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the event is likely to peak towards the end of 2011, and persist into early 2012. It is considered unlikely that the current La Niña will be as strong as the La Niña event of 2010-11.

ENSO indicators continue to remain at or in excess of La Niña thresholds: the tropical Pacific Ocean is cooler than average for this time of year, especially below the surface, while the trade winds, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness in the tropical Pacific are all at levels consistent with a La Niña event.

La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of Australia, most notably eastern and northern regions. Daytime temperatures are typically cooler than average and tropical cyclone risk for northern Australia increases during the cyclone season (November-April). For detailed rainfall and temperature outlooks please see www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead.


Sea Surface Temperatures

Monthly sea surface temperatures:

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to cool across the tropical Pacific Ocean during October. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for October shows cool anomalies have increased in the central and eastern Pacific when compared to September, and now extend across the entire equatorial Pacific east of the dateline.


IndexAugustSeptemberTemperature change
NINO3  0.4−0.60.2 °C cooler
NINO3.4−0.6−0.70.1 °C cooler
NINO4−0.4−0.4no change

图片:1.gif



Weekly sea surface temperatures:

Weekly sea surface temperature anomalies remain similar in extent, when compared to the map from two weeks ago, although there has been a slight cooling of SSTs in some areas. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 6 November shows cool anomalies cover most of the equatorial Pacific east of the dateline, with a few small areas reaching more than 2 °C cooler than normal for this time of the year.

IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3−0.7−0.7no change
NINO3.4−0.7−0.80.1 °C cooler
NINO4−0.3−0.40.1 °C cooler

图片:2.gif



Sub-surface Pacific Ocean temperatures

Monthly sub-surface:
The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies, to October, shows further cooling of sub-surface anomalies east of the dateline during October. This large volume of cooler than usual water extends across the entire Pacific east of the dateline, with anomalies more than4 °C cooler than average.

图片:3.gif


Weekly sub-surface:
Temperatures in the sub-surface of the central tropical Pacific have continued to warm slightly when compared with two weeks ago (see the map for the 5 days ending 8 November). Anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific, however, remain more than 3 °C cooler than usual, for this time of the year.

图片:4.gif



Southern Oscillation Index:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has fluctuated over the last two weeks but remains above La Niña thresholds. The latest (7 November) 30-day SOI value is 9.9.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.

图片:5.png



Trade winds:

When compared with two weeks ago, trade winds in the central Pacific have strengthened. The latest wind anomaly map, for the 5 days ending 7 November, shows trade winds are stronger than average across the central and western equatorial Pacific Ocean.

During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.


图片:6.gif


Cloudiness near the dateline:

Cloudiness near the dateline has remained suppressed over the last two weeks.

Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.

图片:7.gif


Climate Models:

The majority of outlooks from leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau forecast that slightly cool Pacific Ocean temperatures will persist throughout the southern summer. The current La Niña event is expected to be considerably weaker than the 2010–11 event.

图片:8.gif


Indian Ocean Dipole:

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is decaying, as is usual for this time of the year. The IOD index value for the week ending 6 November was +0.3.

Recent forecasts from the POAMA model predict that the event will weaken considerably towards the end of 2011. Positive IOD events have been associated with drier conditions over parts of Australia, particularly in the southeast, during winter and spring.

图片:9.gif




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1楼#
发布于:2011-11-12 01:42
La Niña slowly builds in the tropical Pacific
Issued on Wednesday 9 November

拉尼娜正緩慢地在太平洋建立
2011年11月9日發佈:
 
La Niña conditions have strengthened slightly over the past fortnight, with some, but not all, atmospheric and oceanic indicators intensifying. Forecast models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the event is likely to peak towards the end of 2011, and persist into early 2012. It is considered unlikely that the current La Niña will be as strong as the La Niña event of 2010-11.

 
過去兩星期,拉尼娜稍為增強了,同時部分--但不是全部--的大氣和海洋指標都有所增強。本局的預報模式指出,這次事件會在2011年年底達到最高峰,並會在2012年初維持。這次的拉尼娜事件,普遍認為不太可能像2010-2011年的事件般強烈。
 
ENSO indicators continue to remain at or in excess of La Niña thresholds: the tropical Pacific Ocean is cooler than average for this time of year, especially below the surface, while the trade winds, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness in the tropical Pacific are all at levels consistent with a La Niña event.

 
ENSO的指標繼續維持或超越拉尼娜的臨界值:熱帶太平洋較正常年的同期為冷,特別是海平面以下,同時熱帶太平洋的信風,南方濤動指數(SOI)和雲量水平,皆與拉尼娜事件的水平吻合。
 
La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of Australia, most notably eastern and northern regions. Daytime temperatures are typically cooler than average and tropical cyclone risk for northern Australia increases during the cyclone season (November-April). For detailed rainfall and temperature outlooks please see www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead .

 
拉尼娜時期通常--但不一定--與澳洲大部分地區的下半年高於平均雨量有關,特別是東部和北部地區。日間氣溫通常會較正常為低,同時澳洲北部在風季(11月至4月)受熱帶氣旋影響的機會增加。有關雨量和氣溫的詳細展望,請瀏覽www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
 
Next update expected by 23 November 2011

預計下一報發佈日期: 2011年11月23日
 
    

 
Sea Surface Temperatures
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to cool across the tropical Pacific Ocean during October. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for October shows cool anomalies have increased in the central and eastern Pacific when compared to September, and now extend across the entire equatorial Pacific east of the dateline.

 
海洋表層溫度
每月海洋表層溫度:
自10月以來,熱帶太平洋的海洋表層溫度(SST)的負距平繼續擴大。10月的海洋表層溫度(SST)距平圖顯示,東太平洋和中太平洋的負距平較9月為大,現在負距平區已經擴展至換日線以東的整個赤道太平洋。
 
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
Weekly sea surface temperature anomalies remain similar in extent, when compared to the map from two weeks ago, although there has been a slight cooling of SSTs in some areas. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 6 November shows cool anomalies cover most of the equatorial Pacific east of the dateline, with a few small areas reaching more than 2 °C cooler than normal for this time of the year.

 
每周海洋表層溫度:
和兩星期前的距平圖相比,每周海洋表層溫度的距平幅度沒有明顯變化,儘管部分地區的SST有輕微的負距平。直到11月6日為止的SST距平圖顯示,負距平區已經覆蓋了換日線以東的大部分赤道太平洋地區,而當中的小部分地區的水溫,和同期相比下更是出現超過2°C的負距平。
 
    

 
Sub-surface Pacific Ocean temperatures
Monthly sub-surface:
The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies, to October, shows further cooling of sub-surface anomalies east of the dateline during October. This large volume of cooler than usual water extends across the entire Pacific east of the dateline, with anomalies more than 4 °C cooler than average.

 
太平洋地區的次表層海溫
每月次表層海溫:
直到十月為止的4個月次表層海溫距平序列指出,在10月期間,換日線以東的次表層海溫的負距平進一步擴大了。這些較正常為冷的海水,已經擴展至換日線以東的整個赤道太平洋,並且出現超過4°C的負距平水平。
 
Weekly sub-surface:
Temperatures in the sub-surface of the central tropical Pacific have continued to warm slightly when compared with two weeks ago (see the map for the 5 days ending 8 November). Anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific, however, remain more than 3 °C cooler than usual, for this time of the year.

 
每周次表層海溫:
和兩星期前相比,赤道中太平洋地區的次表層海溫,正持續而輕微地變暖(留意直到11月8日為止的5天圖)。可是熱帶東太平洋地區的次表層海溫,和同期相比之下卻是繼續出現超過3°C的負距平。
 
  

 
Southern Oscillation Index:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has fluctuated over the last two weeks but remains above La Niña thresholds. The latest (7 November) 30-day SOI value is 9.9.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.

 
南方濤動指數:
南方濤動指數(SOI)在過去兩星期出現波動,可是這仍然在拉尼娜的臨界值之上,最新(11月7日)的30天SOI數值是9.9。
SOI持續在+8以上,可能意味著拉尼娜事件的發生;而SOI持續在-8以上,可能意味著厄爾尼諾事件的發生。SOI在+8和-8之間維持的話,通常表示情況為中性。
 
  

 
Trade winds:
When compared with two weeks ago, trade winds in the central Pacific have strengthened. The latest wind anomaly map, for the 5 days ending 7 November, shows trade winds are stronger than average across the central and western equatorial Pacific Ocean.
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.

 
信風:
和兩星期前相比,中太平洋的信風增強了。直到11月7日為止的最新一幅5天風力距平圖,顯示赤道太平洋地區的中部和西部的信風,是較正常為強的。
在拉尼娜事件下,赤道太平洋地區的大部分地區的信風會持續增強;而在厄爾尼諾事件下,信風會持續減弱。
 
  

 
Cloudiness near the dateline:
Cloudiness near the dateline has remained suppressed over the last two weeks.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.

 
換日線附近的雲量:
在過去兩星期,換日線附近的雲量維持偏少。
換日線附近的赤道地區雲量,是ENSO狀況的重要指標之一,因為在厄爾尼諾事件下,換日線附近和以東的雲量通常會增加(OLR負距平),而在拉尼娜事件下則會減少(OLR正距平)。
 
  

 
Climate Models:
The majority of outlooks from leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau forecast that slightly cool Pacific Ocean temperatures will persist throughout the southern summer. The current La Niña event is expected to be considerably weaker than the 2010–11 event.

 
氣候模式:
本局參考了大部分國際領先的氣候模式,大部分都預測太平洋的海溫將會輕微下降,並且會在南半球的夏季維持。這次的拉尼娜事件,預計會較2010-2011的一次為弱。
 
  

 
Indian Ocean Dipole:
The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is decaying, as is usual for this time of the year. The IOD index value for the week ending 6 November was +0.3.
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model predict that the event will weaken considerably towards the end of 2011. Positive IOD events have been associated with drier conditions over parts of Australia, particularly in the southeast, during winter and spring.

 
印度洋偶極子:
像每年同期的情況一樣,印度洋偶極子(IOD)的正相事件正在崩潰。在直到11月6日為止的一周,IOD指數數值是+0.3。
最近POAMA的預報模式預測,這次事件會有一定程度減弱,直到2011年尾為止。IOD正相事件與冬春兩季澳洲各地的乾旱天氣有關,特別是東南部地區。
 
 
 
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2楼#
发布于:2011-11-24 22:57
La Niña steady in the Pacific
在太平洋的拉尼娜已经稳定(2011.11.23)
La Niña conditions have undergone little change over the past fortnight, with most atmospheric and oceanic indicators remaining at, or just exceeding, La Niña thresholds. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this event is likely to peak near the end of the year and persist into early 2012. Current observations of this La Niña show that it is considerably weaker than the very strong 2010-11 event.
在过去的两周内,拉尼娜现象变化不大,大气和海洋的指标也没有多大变化。调查局的气候模型表明,这一事件可能在接近年底达到颠峰,并在2012年初持续。这次拉尼娜事件,普遍认为不会像2010-2011年的事件一样强烈。
Atmospheric indicators of La Niña, such as the trade winds and cloudiness in the tropical Pacific, remain at levels consistent with a La Niña event. Likewise, oceanic indicators continue to be cooler than normal for this time of year, despite a slight warming of the waters below the surface of the central to western Pacific Ocean over the past fortnight.
拉尼娜现象将会影响热带太平洋信风和云量,大气指标与拉尼娜现象水平保持一致。在过去的两周内,尽管西北太平洋海温高于正常水平,海洋平均温度仍比同期的正常水平低。
La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern regions. Daytime temperatures are typically cooler than average and tropical cyclone risk for northern Australia increases during the cyclone season (November to April). During La Niña years, the first tropical cyclone to cross the Australian coast typically occurs in the first half of December. Widespread above average rainfall over Australia during the last few months is consistent with the current La Niña event.
发生拉尼娜现象时澳洲的大部分地区通常,但并不总是高于正常降雨量,特别是东部和北部地区。白天气温通常比平均气温低,以及飓风季节(11月至4月)澳大利亚北部热带气旋增加的风险。在拉尼娜年,登陆澳大利亚海岸的第一个热带气旋通常发生在12月的上半月。过去几个月中澳大利亚降雨量偏多也与当前发生的拉尼娜事件有关。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to cool across the tropical Pacific Ocean during October. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for October shows cool anomalies have increased in the central and eastern Pacific when compared to September, and now extend across the entire equatorial Pacific east of the dateline.
10月,太平洋热带地区海温(SST)低于正常水平。十月海面温度(SST)距平图显示,太平洋中部和东部海温与9月份相比温度偏低地区有所扩大,现在负距平区已延伸至整个东太平洋接近日界线的赤道地区。
IndexAugustSeptemberTemperature change
NINO3  0.4−0.60.2 °C cooler
NINO3.4−0.6−0.70.1 °C cooler
NINO4−0.4−0.4no change

 

图片:2.gif


Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:

Weekly sea surface temperature anomalies have cooled slightly, when compared to the map from two weeks ago. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 20 November shows cool anomalies extend across the equatorial Pacific east of the dateline, with a few small areas reaching more than 2 °C cooler than normal for this time of the year.
和两个星期前的距平图相比,每周海洋表面温度略有降低。截至11月20日的每周海温距平图显示,负距平的地区已经扩展到整个赤道太平洋日界线以东的地区。有几个地区与同期相比,出现超过2°C的负距平,今年海温较正常情况偏低。
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3−0.7−0.80.1 °C cooler
NINO3.4−0.8−0.8no change
NINO4−0.4−0.4no change

 

图片:4.gif


Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温
Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温  
The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies, to 21 November, shows cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific have contracted slightly eastward during the month although the region where water is more than 4 °C cooler than average has increased. Cool sub-surface anomalies extend across the entire Pacific east of the dateline.  
到11月21日为止的四个月的次表层海温负距平值略有东移,已扩展到整个太平洋日界线以东地区,并且部分地区出现超过4°C的负距平值。

图片:6.gif


Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温
Temperatures in the sub-surface of the tropical Pacific have remained relatively unchanged over the past two weeks (see the map for the 5 days ending 21 November). The central focus of cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific has migrated slightly eastward and remains more than 3 °C cooler than usual, for this time of the year. The sub-surface of the western tropical Pacific has warmed slightly.  
在过去两个星期中(截至11月21日5天的地图),在太平洋热带地区次表层的温度变化不大。东太平洋热带的次表层异常的中心略有东移,而负距平仍然保持在3°C以上。今年西太平洋热带地区次表层温度略有回暖。

图片:8.gif


Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has declined over the last two weeks but remains near La Niña thresholds. The latest (21 November) 30-day SOI value is +7.7.
南方涛动指数(SOI)在过去2周已经有所下降,但仍然接近拉尼娜的临界值。最新30天(至11月21日)的值为+ 7.7。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。

图片:10.png


Trade winds:
信风
When compared with two weeks ago, trade winds in the central Pacific have weakened slightly. The latest wind anomaly map, for the 5 days ending 21November, shows trade winds are stronger than average across the west-central equatorial Pacific Ocean, but elsewhere are near-neutral.
和两个星期前相比,中太平洋的信风有所减弱。到11月21日为止的最新一幅5天风力异常图,显示太平洋中西部赤道地区高于信风比平均水平强,但其他地方接近中性。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。

图片:11.gif


Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量
Cloudiness near the dateline returned to near neutral values in the earlier part of the past fortnight, but has since remained suppressed.
在过去两周,日界线附近的云量恢复到接近正常水平,但至今仍然偏少。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近的赤道地区云量,是ENSO状况的重要指标之一,因为在厄尔尼诺事件下,换日线附近和以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。

图片:12.gif


Climate Models:
气候模式
The majority of outlooks from leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the current La Niña may be nearing its peak. Cool Pacific Ocean temperatures are forecast to persist throughout the southern summer.
本局参考了大部分国际领先的气候模式,目前的拉尼娜现象可能已经接近了顶峰。预计太平洋南部的整个夏天海温将持续偏高。

图片:13.gif


Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子
The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is decaying, as is usual for this time of the year. The IOD index value for the week ending 20 November was +0.3.
像每年同期的情况一样,印度洋偶极子(IOD)的正相事件正在崩溃。在直到11月20日为止的一周,IOD指数数值是+0.3。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model predict that the event is drawing to a close. Positive IOD events have been associated with drier conditions over parts of Australia, particularly in the southeast, during winter and spring.
最近的POAMA模型预测指出,该事件已接近尾声。偶极子正相事件与冬春两季澳洲各地的干旱天气有关,特别是东南部地区。

图片:14.gif


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发布于:2011-12-08 18:55
La Niña continues across the Pacific Basin
太平洋的拉尼娜现象继续加强(2011.12.07)

La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Niña is likely to peak during the next month and last at least until the end of summer.
十一月,太平洋热带地区的拉尼娜现象继续加强。调查局的气候模型表明,在接下来的一个月中拉尼娜现象将达到颠峰,预计将会持续到夏季末。
Atmospheric indicators of ENSO, including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloudiness, all displayed some strengthening over the past fortnight, with the current SOI value of +15 being the highest since the breakdown of the 2010-11 event in May 2011. Similarly, the classic La Niña ocean patterns in the tropical Pacific have become more clearly defined over the past month. Despite this strengthening, the La Niña remains weaker than at the same time in 2010. Australia’s climate has responded to these recent changes, with above average rainfall across large parts of the north and west of the country since October.
ENSO大气指标,包括南方涛动指数(SOI),信风和云量,这些所有的指标共同显示,在过去两周,SOI值达到+15,自2010-11五月份的拉尼娜现象在五月创造出2011年的最高记录,使得太平洋热带地区的拉尼娜现象达到一个新的高度,在过去一个月,尽管拉尼娜现象不断加强,但仍比2010年同时期水平弱。澳大利亚的气候同样受到这些变化影响,自十月以来,该国北部和西部的大部分地区降雨量高于平均水平。
La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern regions. Daytime temperatures are typically cooler than average and tropical cyclone risk for northern Australia increases during the cyclone season (November to April). During La Niña years, the first tropical cyclone to cross the Australian coast typically occurs in the first half of December.
发生拉尼娜现象时澳洲的大部分地区在今年下半年以及夏季通常,但并不总是高于正常降雨量,特别是东部和北部地区。白天气温通常比平均气温低,以及飓风季节(11月至4月)澳大利亚北部热带气旋增加的风险。在拉尼娜年,登陆澳大利亚海岸的第一个热带气旋通常发生在12月的上半月。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to cool across the tropical Pacific Ocean during November. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for November shows cool anomalies have increased in the eastern Pacific when compared to October; sea surface temperatures more than 1 °C cooler than normal cover most of the equatorial Pacific east 160°W.
11月,太平洋热带地区海温(SST)低于正常水平。十一月海面温度(SST)距平图显示,太平洋中部和东部海温与十月份相比温度偏低地区有所扩大,现在温度低于正常水平1℃的地区已延伸至整个东太平洋赤道地区160°W附近。
October
November
Temperature change
−0.6
−0.8
0.2 °C cooler
−0.7
−0.9
0.2 °C cooler
−0.4
−0.5
0.1 °C cooler

  

图片:1.gif


Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:

Weekly sea surface temperature anomalies have cooled slightly, when compared to the map from two weeks ago. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 4 December shows cool anomalies extend across the equatorial Pacific east of the dateline, with most areas east of 150°W more than 1 °C cooler than normal for this time of the year.
和两个星期前的距平图相比,每周海洋表面温度略有降低。截至12月4日的每周海温距平图显示,负距平的地区已经扩展到整个赤道太平洋日界线以东的地区。150°W附近的大部分地区与同期相比,出现超过1°C的负距平,今年海温较正常情况偏低。
Previous
Current
Temperature change
(2 weeks)
−0.8
−0.9
0.1 °C cooler
−0.8
−0.9
0.1 °C cooler
−0.4
−0.6
0.2 °C cooler

图片:2.gif


Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温
Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温  
The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies shows cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific have contracted slightly eastward during November although the region where water is more than 4 °C cooler than average has increased. Cool sub-surface anomalies extend across the entire Pacific east of the dateline.
最近四个月,次表层海温负距平区略有东移,已扩展到整个太平洋日界线以东地区,出现超过4°C负距平值的地区与11月相比有所增加。

图片:3.gif


Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温
Temperatures in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific have warmed over the past two weeks. The map for the 5 days ending 6 December shows cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific are more than 2 °C cooler than usual, for this time of the year, compared to 3 °C cooler than usual two weeks ago. Anomalies in the sub-surface of the western tropical Pacific remain generally unchanged.
在过去两个星期中(截至12月6日5天的地图),在太平洋热带地区次表层的温度有所变暖。东太平洋热带部分地区次表层负距平值保持在2°C以上,与上个月3°C以上的负距平值相比,西太平洋热带地区次表层温度变化不大。

图片:4.gif


Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has strengthened over the past fortnight, and is now at the highest value since May 2011. The latest (4 December) 30-day SOI value is +15.3.
南方涛动指数(SOI)在过去2周不断加强,并创出2011年以来的新高。最新30天(至12月4日)的值为+ 15.3。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。

图片:5.png


Trade winds:
信风
Trade winds across the central and western Pacific have strengthened over the past two weeks. The latest wind anomaly map, for the 5 days ending 5 December, shows trade winds are stronger than average across most of the equatorial Pacific, but near-neutral in the far eastern Pacific.
和两个星期前相比,太平洋中部和西部的信风有所加强。到12月5日为止的最新一幅5天风力异常图,显示太平洋东部赤道地区信风高于平均水平,但其他大部分地区接近中性。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。

图片:6.gif


Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量
Cloudiness near the dateline has been suppressed over the past two weeks.
在过去两周,日界线附近的云量受到抑制。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近的赤道地区云量,是ENSO状况的重要指标之一,因为在厄尔尼诺事件下,换日线附近和以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。

图片:7.gif


Climate Models:
气候模式
The majority of outlooks from leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the current La Niña may be nearing its peak. Cool Pacific Ocean temperatures are forecast to persist throughout the southern summer before returning to neutral values during autumn.
本局参考了大部分国际领先的气候模式,目前的拉尼娜现象可能已经接近了顶峰。预计整个夏天太平洋南部海温将保持在中等水平。

图片:8.gif


Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has returned to neutral values. The IOD index value for the week ending 4 December was +0.3.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)指数已经回到中等水平。截至12月,4周的IOD指数值为+0.3。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model predict neutral IOD conditions for the summer and following autumn.
最近的POAMA模型预测指出,该事件将在夏季保持中等水平。

图片:9.gif


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发布于:2011-12-24 13:00
La Niña continues over the Pacific Basin
太平洋的拉尼娜现象保持稳定(2011.12.21)
La Niña remains in place across the tropical Pacific, though the majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Niña may be near its peak. While the event is likely to persist through the remainder of summer, a gradual decline in the strength of the La Niña is expected over the coming months.
虽然大多数气候模型显示拉尼娜现象或已接近颠峰,但热带太平洋的拉尼娜现象仍将持续。虽然在预计未来几个月中拉尼娜的强度将逐渐下降,但拉尼娜现象可能仍将持续到夏季。
Climate indicators of ENSO continue to exceed La Niña thresholds, but remain weaker than at the same time in 2010. Despite some local warming over the past fortnight, tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures remain cooler than normal. Atmospheric indicators of La Niña strengthened over the last fortnight – for example, the current 30-day SOI value of +21 is the highest since the breakdown of the 2010-11 event in May 2011. Australia’s climate has responded to these changes in the tropical Pacific, with above average rainfall across large parts of the country since October.
虽然大气指标保持杂拉尼娜现象的门槛以上,但仍低于2010年同期水平。尽管过去两周一些地区有所变暖,但热带太平洋海温仍然低于正常水平。而大气指标反映拉尼娜现象仍持续增强,最近30天的SOI的值为+21,创出2010/2011年拉尼娜现象崩溃以来的新高。而热带太平洋的气候变化导致澳大利亚十月以来的降雨量高于平均水平。
La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern regions. Daytime temperatures are typically cooler than average and tropical cyclone risk for northern Australia increases during the cyclone season (November to April), with February and March the peak.
发生拉尼娜现象时澳洲的大部分地区在今年下半年以及夏季通常,但并不总是高于正常降雨量,特别是东部和北部地区。白天气温通常比平均气温低,以及飓风季节(11月至4月),特别是2月和3月登陆澳大利亚北部的热带气旋增加的风险。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to cool across the tropical Pacific Ocean during November. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for November shows cool anomalies have increased in the eastern Pacific when compared to October; sea surface temperatures more than 1 °C cooler than normal cover most of the equatorial Pacific east 160°W.
11月,太平洋热带地区海温(SST)低于正常水平。十一月海面温度(SST)距平图显示,太平洋中部和东部海温与十月份相比温度偏低地区有所扩大,现在温度低于正常水平1℃的地区已延伸至整个东太平洋赤道地区160°W附近。
IndexOctoberNovemberTemperature change
NINO3−0.6−0.80.2 °C cooler
NINO3.4−0.7−0.90.2 °C cooler
NINO4−0.4−0.50.1 °C cooler

图片:1.gif


Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:
Weekly sea surface temperature anomalies have cooled in the central equatorial Pacific, while warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific when compared to the map from two weeks ago. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 18 December shows cool anomalies present across the majority of the equatorial Pacific east of 160° while a small area in the far east is more than 2 °C cooler than normal for this time of the year.
和两个星期前的距平图相比,每周海洋表面温度有所回暖但与正常值相比仍偏低。截至12月18日的每周海温距平图显示,负距平的地区已经扩展到整个赤道太平洋日界线以东的地区。160°W附近部分地区与同期相比,出现超过2°C的负距平,今年海温较正常情况偏低。
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3−0.9−0.50.4 °C warmer
NINO3.4−0.9−0.80.1 °C warmer
NINO4−0.6−0.80.2 °C cooler

图片:2.gif


Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温
Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:
The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies shows cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific have contracted slightly eastward during November although the region where water is more than 4 °C cooler than average has increased. Cool sub-surface anomalies extend across the entire Pacific east of the dateline.  
四个月的次表层海温负距平值区略有东移,已扩展到整个太平洋日界线以东地区,出现超过4°C负距平值的地区与11月相比有所增加。

图片:3.gif


Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:
Temperatures in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific have cooled over the past two weeks. The map for the 5 days ending 20 December shows cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific are now more than 3 °C cooler than usual, for this time of the year. Anomalies in the sub-surface of the western tropical Pacific remain generally unchanged.
在过去两个星期中(截至12月20日5天的地图),在太平洋热带地区次表层的温度有所降低。东太平洋热带部分地区的次表层负距平值已达到3°C以上,与上个月3°C以上的负距平值相比,与每年同期相比,西太平洋热带地区次表层温度变化不大。

图片:4.gif


Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has strengthened over the past fortnight, and is now at the highest value since the breakdown of the 2010-11 La Niña. The latest (19 December) 30-day SOI value is +21.3.
南方涛动指数(SOI)在过去2周不断加强,并创出2010/2011年拉尼娜现象崩溃以来的新高。最新30天(至12月19日)的值为+ 21.3。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。

图片:5.png


Trade winds:
信风:
Trade winds have strengthened in the western Pacific over the past two weeks. The latest wind anomaly map, for the 5 days ending 19 December, shows trade winds are stronger than average across most of the equatorial Pacific, but near-neutral in the eastern Pacific.
和两个星期前相比,太平洋中部和西部的信风显著加强。到12月19日为止的最新一幅5天风力异常图,显示太平洋东部赤道地区信风高于平均水平,但其他大部分地区接近中性。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。

图片:6.gif


Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:
Cloudiness near the dateline has been suppressed over the past two weeks. OLR anomalies have reached the highest values seen since last autumn.
在过去两周,日界线附近的云量受到抑制。反射的长波辐射量达到去年秋天以来的最大值。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近的赤道地区云量,是ENSO状况的重要指标之一,因为在厄尔尼诺事件下,换日线附近和以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。

图片:7.gif


Climate Models:
气候模式:
The majority of outlooks from leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the current La Niña may be near its peak. The current event is expected to persist throughout the summer, but a gradual weakening of La Niña conditions is forecast returning to neutral values during autumn.
本局参考了大部分国际领先的气候模式,目前的拉尼娜现象可能已经接近了顶峰。预计整个夏天太平洋南部海温将保持在中等水平。

图片:8.gif


Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index is currently neutral. The IOD index value for the week ending 18 December was +0.1.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)指数目前处于中等水平。截至12月18日的IOD指数值为+0.1。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model predict neutral IOD conditions for the summer and following autumn.
最近的POAMA模型预测指出,该事件将在夏季和秋季保持中等水平。

图片:9.gif


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发布于:2012-01-04 13:35
La Niña persists over Pacific
太平洋的拉尼娜现象仍然持续(2012.01.04)

La Niña conditions continue over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this La Niña may be close to its peak, with a gradual decline expected over the remainder of the austral summer and early autumn.
大多数气候模型显示拉尼娜现象或已接近颠峰,预计热带太平洋的拉尼娜现象在未来的几个月中仍将持续,并将从南半球的夏末秋初开始逐步减弱。
Climate indicators of ENSO continue to exceed La Niña thresholds. Despite some cooling (i.e. strengthening of the La Niña pattern) at the surface of the tropical Pacific over the past fortnight, sea surface temperatures remain less extreme (i.e., warmer) than at the same time in 2010-11. Atmospheric indicators of La Niña also strengthened slightly over the last fortnight, with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) monthly December value of +23 being the highest value since the breakdown of the 2010-11 event in autumn 2011. The effects of this La Niña can be seen in Australia, with much of the country receiving above average rainfall since October.
在过去的两周中,热带大西洋海温有所降低(拉尼娜现象有所加强),气候指标仍然保持在拉尼娜现象的门槛以上,这使得海温不像2010/2011年同时期的那么极端(温暖)。在过去的两周内,与拉尼娜现象相关的大气指标也略有加强,同时南方涛动指数(SOI)也创出2010/2011年崩溃以来的新高+23。这导致十月以来澳大利亚许多地区降雨量高于平均水平。
La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern regions. Daytime temperatures are typically cooler than average, while there is an increased tropical cyclone risk for northern Australia during the cyclone season (November to April), peaking in February and March. For the cyclone season so far, three tropical cyclones have occurred in the Australian region.
发生拉尼娜现象时澳洲的大部分地区在今年下半年以及夏季通常,但并不总是高于正常降雨量,特别是东部和北部地区。白天气温通常比平均气温低,以及飓风季节(11月至4月),特别是2月和3月登陆澳大利亚北部的热带气旋增加的风险。截止目前,今年飓风季中,澳大利亚附近出现的热带气旋总数已达到3个。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to cool across the tropical Pacific Ocean during December. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for December shows cool anomalies have increased in the central Pacific near the dateline when compared to November; sea surface temperatures more than 1 °C cooler than normal cover areas of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
12月太平洋热带地区海温(SST)仍低于正常水平。12月海面温度(SST)距平图显示,太平洋中部和东部海温与11月相比温度偏低地区继续扩大,现在负距平值在1℃以上的地区已扩大到赤道太平洋的中部和东部。



IndexNovemberDecemberTemperature change
NINO3−0.8−0.60.2 °C warmer
NINO3.4−0.9−0.80.1 °C warmer
NINO4−0.5−0.80.3 °C cooler

图片:1.gif


Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:
Weekly sea surface temperature anomalies have cooled in the central equatorial Pacific, while warming in the far east, when compared to the map from two weeks ago. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 1 January shows cool anomalies present across the majority of the equatorial Pacific east of 160°, with much of the central equatorial Pacific more than 1 °C cooler than normal for this time of the year.
和两个星期前的距平图相比,热带太平洋中部海温有所降低,但赤道太平洋远东地区的海温有所回暖。截至1月1日的每周海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋160°W东部的大部分地区海温出现超过1°C的负距平,今年海温较正常情况仍然偏低。
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3−0.5−0.60.1 °C cooler
NINO3.4−0.8−0.8no change
NINO4−0.8−0.60.2 °C warmer

图片:2.gif


Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:
The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies shows that the cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific have strengthened in the central Pacific during December, while the overall extent of cool anomalies remains similar to the previous month. Water in the eastern Pacific is more than 4℃ cooler than average. Cool sub-surface anomalies extend across the Pacific east of the dateline.
四个月次表层海温异常图表明,中太平洋和东太平洋的负距平取都有所增加,虽然整体情况与12月的水平十分接近,但超过4°C负距平值的地区与12月相比仍略有增加。负距平区现已扩展到整个太平洋日界线以东地区。

图片:3.gif


Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:
Temperatures in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific have continued to cool over the past two weeks. The map for the 5 days ending 2 January shows cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific are now more than 4 °C cooler than usual, for this time of the year. Anomalies in the sub-surface of the western tropical Pacific remain generally unchanged.
在过去两个星期中(截至1月2日5天的地图),在太平洋热带地区次表层的温度有所下降。热带东太平洋部分地区的次表层海温负距平值已达到4°C以上,与往年同期相比,西太平洋热带地区次表层温度变化不大。

图片:5.png


Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) continued to strengthen during the past fortnight, stabilising towards the end of the period. The latest (2 January) 30-day SOI value is +23.1.
南方涛动指数(SOI)在过去2周继续加强,这说明其稳定期已经结束。最新30天(至1月2日)的SOI值为+ 23.1。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。

图片:5.png


Trade winds:
信风:
Trade winds have weakened in the western Pacific, when compared with two weeks ago. The latest wind anomaly map, for the 5 days ending 2 January, shows trade winds are stronger than average across most of the equatorial Pacific, but near-neutral in the eastern Pacific.
和两个星期前相比,太平洋西部的信风强度有所减弱。到1月2日为止的最新一幅5天风力异常图,显示太平洋赤道地区信风高于平均水平,但东太平洋的信风接近中性。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。

图片:6.gif


Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:
Cloudiness near the dateline has been suppressed over the past two weeks.
在过去两周,换日线附近的云量受到抑制。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近的赤道地区云量,是ENSO状况的重要指标之一,因为在厄尔尼诺事件下,换日线附近和以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。

图片:7.gif


Climate Models:
气候模式:
The majority of outlooks from leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the current La Niña may be near its peak. The current event is expected to persist throughout the summer, but a gradual weakening of La Niña conditions is forecast, returning to neutral values during autumn.
本局参考了大部分国际领先的气候模式,目前的拉尼娜现象可能已经接近了顶峰。预计今年夏天,太平洋南部海温将保持在中等水平。

图片:8.gif


Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) typically has little influence in Australia over summer. The IOD index is currently neutral; the index value for the week ending 18 December was +0.1.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)目前处于中等水平,它通常会对澳大利亚夏季气候造成一定影响。截至12月18日一周内的IOD指数为+0.1。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model predict neutral IOD conditions for the summer and following autumn.
最近的POAMA模型预测指出,该事件将在夏季和秋季保持中等水平。

图片:9.gif


 
 
 
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发布于:2012-01-18 23:11
La Niña shows some weakening
拉尼娜显示有所弱化
Issued on Wednesday 18 January | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
1 月 18 日 (星期三) 发表
While La Niña conditions clearly remain, some indicators have weakened over the past fortnight. Similarly, the majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest a gradual decline of the current La Niña, with most models suggesting an end of the event during the coming autumn season.
虽然拉尼娜现象仍清楚地存在,但有些指标在过去的两周内有所减弱。大多数调查局的气候模型同样表明当前的拉尼娜现象的逐渐衰弱,大多数模型表明,在即将来临的秋冬季节活动结束。
Over the past fortnight, atmospheric indicators of La Niña, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloudiness over the equatorial Pacific Ocean have shifted towards more neutral values, implying some weakening of the La Niña event. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific has also warmed slightly from their December lows.
在过去的两周内,拉尼娜现象,如南方涛动指数(SOI),信风和赤道太平洋的云量,大气指标已转向更为中性的值,这意味着拉尼娜现象有所减弱。在中部和东部热带太平洋的海面温度从12月低位开始也略有回暖。
•    La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall and below normal daytime temperatures from winter through summer across eastern and northern Australia. Tropical cyclone risk is increased for northern Australia during the cyclone season (November to April), peaking in February and March.
•    拉尼娜现象时期,整个澳大利亚东部和北部地区冬季通常但并不总是高于正常的降雨,夏季白天气温低于正常。澳大利亚北部热带气旋的风险增加,飓风季节期间(11月至4月),在二月和三月达到高峰。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度
 
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to cool across the tropical Pacific Ocean during December. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for December shows cool anomalies have increased in the central Pacific near the dateline when compared to November; sea surface temperatures more than 1 °C cooler than normal cover areas of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
整个热带太平洋海表温度(SST)异常,在12月持续降温。与11月靠近日界线地区相比降温异常增加,在太平洋中部海面温度(SST)12月距平图显示,赤道太平洋中部和东部海洋表面温度降温,比正常的地区超过1° C。

图片:1sst_monthly_thumb.gif


            
Index
November    December    Temperature    change
NINO3            −0.8              −0.6               0.2 °C warmer
NINO3.4         −0.9              −0.8               0.1 °C warmer
NINO4            −0.5              −0.8               0.3 °C cooler
    
 
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:
During the past two weeks, sea surface temperature anomalies have warmed in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 15 January shows cool anomalies present across much of the central equatorial Pacific, with most of this area more than 1 °C cooler than normal for this time of the year.
在过去的两个星期,在赤道东太平洋海面温度异常升温。截至1月15日的一周海温距平图显示,目前整个赤道太平洋中部的大部分降温异常,这区域的大多数,这一年的时间里,比正常值降温超过1° C。

图片:2sst_weekly_thumb.gif


            
Index        Previous      Current        Temperature  
                                                          change
                                                          (2 weeks)
NINO3         −0.6            −0.4           0.2 °C warmer
NINO3.4      −0.8            −0.8            no change
NINO4         −0.9            −0.9            no change
    
 
Sub-surface Pacific Ocean temperatures
太平洋次表层的温度
Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层的温度
    
The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies shows that the cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific have strengthened in the central Pacific during December, while the overall extent of cool anomalies remains similar to the previous month. Water in the eastern Pacific is more than 4 °C cooler than average. Cool sub-surface anomalies extend across the Pacific east of the dateline.
为期四个月顺序的太平洋赤道次表面温度距平显示, 12月在太平洋中部加强,在东太平洋次表层的降温距平,而整体降温距平程度仍与上月类似。在东太平洋的水温比平均温度低4℃。降温次表层距平扩展到整个太平洋日界线以东。  

图片:3sub_surf_mon_thumb.gif

 

 
Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层的温度
 
    
Temperatures in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific have continued to cool over the past two weeks. The map for the 5 days ending 17 January shows the volume of water in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific more than 4 °C cooler than usual, for this time of the year has increased significantly, when compared with two weeks ago. Warm anomalies in the sub-surface of the western tropical Pacific have also strengthened, with a large volume of water now more than 3 °C warmer than usual, for this time of the year.    
 
在热带太平洋东部,次表层的温度已经在过去两个星期里持续降温。截至1月17日5天的地图上显示了在热带太平洋东部次表层降温超过正常4° C的水量,这一年的时间里有显著增加,用两周前相比。在热带西太平洋次表面暖距平也加强了,现在温暖超过正常3° C,这一年的时间里,温暖的水量也增加了。

图片:4sub_surf_tao_thumb.gif


Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) continued to drop over the past fortnight, but remains above La Niña thresholds. The latest (16 January) 30-day SOI value is +12.8.
南方涛动指数(SOI)在过去的两周内持续下降,但上述拉尼娜现象的门槛值仍保持。最新(1月16日)30天SOI值是12.8。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
 
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。
 

图片:5soi30.thumb.png


Trade winds:
信风
Trade winds have weakened in the western and central Pacific, when compared with two weeks ago. The latest wind anomaly map, for the 5 days ending 16 January, shows trade winds are slightly stronger than average across most of the equatorial Pacific, but near-neutral in the eastern Pacific.
与两个星期前相比,西部和中部太平洋,信风减弱。截至1月16日的5天最新的风力异常图,显示了信风在整个赤道太平洋大部分强度略高于平均,但在东太平洋接近中性。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地方的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。

图片:6sst_wind_anom_5day.gif


 
 
Cloudiness near the dateline:
日界线附近的云量:
Cloudiness near the dateline has remained suppressed over the past two weeks.
日界线附近的云量在过去的两个星期一直压抑。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
靠近日界线附近的赤道地区云量,是ENSO状况的重要指标之一,因为在厄尔尼诺事件下,日界线线附近及以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。

图片:7region.ts.dateline.gif.small.gif


 
Climate Models:
气候模式
The majority of outlooks from leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the current La Niña event may decline over the coming weeks. The current event is expected to persist throughout the summer, but a gradual return to neutral values is forecast during autumn.
调查局参考国际领先的大部分气候模式的展望表明,当前的拉尼娜现象可能在未来数周下降。当前活动预计将持续整个夏天,但预测逐渐恢复到中性值是在秋季。
 

图片:8poama.nino34.small.gif


Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) typically has little influence in Australia over summer. The IOD index is currently neutral; the index value for the week ending 15 January was −0.1.
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model predict neutral IOD conditions for the remainder of summer and the following autumn.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)目前处于中等水平,它通常会对澳大利亚夏季气候造成一定影响。截至1月15日的一周IOD指数为-0.1。

图片:9poama.iod.small.gif


 
 
 
 
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发布于:2012-02-01 12:49
La Niña continues with little change
拉尼娜现象持续且变化不大
(2012.02.01)
La Niña showed only small changes over the past fortnight and are expected to maintain an influence upon Australian climate over the coming months.
拉尼娜现象在过去的两周内只发生了微弱的变化,预计拉尼娜现象在未来几个月中仍将对澳大利亚气候造成影响。

Over the past fortnight, sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific cooled slightly, reversing the recent warming trend. However other indicators of La Niña, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, and cloudiness over the equatorial Pacific Ocean have generally remained steady, below their December peak but clearly exceeding La Niña thresholds.
在过去的两周内,热带太平洋中部的海水表面温度略微下降,扭转近期的变暖趋势。与拉尼娜现象相关的指标,如南方涛动指数(SOI),信风以及赤道太平洋云量普遍保持稳定,且低于12月的高峰,但这些指标均超过拉尼娜现象门槛。

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate a gradual decline in the strength of the La Niña over the coming months, with most models suggesting a return to neutral conditions during the southern autumn.
调查局的气候模型表示,拉尼娜现象将在未来几个月中持续减弱,大多数气候模型表明拉尼娜现象将在南半球的秋天回归中性水平。

La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall and below normal daytime temperatures from winter through summer across eastern and northern Australia. Tropical cyclone risk is increased for northern Australia during the cyclone season (November to April), peaking in February and March. For detailed rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone outlooks, please see: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead.
发生拉尼娜现象时澳洲的大部分地区在今年下半年以及夏季通常,但并不总是高于正常降雨量,特别是东部和北部地区。白天气温通常比平均气温低,以及飓风季节(11月至4月),特别是2月和3月登陆澳大利亚北部的热带气旋增加的风险。有关温度,降水和热带气旋的详细资料请参见:www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead。

Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to cool across the tropical Pacific Ocean during December. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for December shows cool anomalies have increased in the central Pacific near the dateline when compared to November; sea surface temperatures more than 1 °C cooler than normal cover areas of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
12月太平洋热带地区海温(SST)继续低于正常水平。12月海面温度(SST)距平图显示,太平洋中部和东部海温与11月相比温度偏低地区继续扩大,现在负距平值在1℃以上的地区已扩展到赤道太平洋的中部和东部。

IndexNovemberDecemberTemperature change
NINO3−0.8−0.60.2 °C warmer
NINO3.4−0.9−0.80.1 °C warmer
NINO4−0.5−0.80.3 °C cooler

图片:1.gif


Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:
During the past two weeks, sea surface temperature anomalies have in the central equatorial Pacific have cooled, reversing the recent warming trend. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 29 January shows cool anomalies present across most of the central equatorial Pacific, with a large part of this area more than 1 °C cooler than normal for this time of the year.
在过去几周内,赤道太平洋中部海温正距平趋势开始扭转。截至1月29日的每周海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋中部的大部分地区海温出现超过1°C的负距平,今年海温较正常情况仍然偏低。

IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3−0.4−0.50.1 °C cooler
NINO3.4−0.8−1.00.2 °C cooler
NINO4−0.9−1.00.1 °C cooler

图片:2.gif


Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温
Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:
The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies shows that the cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the central and eastern Pacific continued to expand during January. A large volume of water in the sub-surface of the Pacific between about 160°W and 100°W is more than 4 °C cooler than average. West of the dateline, warm anomalies have strengthened, with the warmest water here now reaching more than 4 °C warmer than average for January.
四个月次表层海温异常图表明,中太平洋和东太平洋次表层海温的负距平范围继续扩大,虽然整体情况与12月的水平十分接近,但赤道太平洋100°W至160°W之间的海温仍出现了超过4°C的负距平值。该区域的海温与之前相比有所转暖。

图片:3.gif


Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:
The volume of cooler than average water in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific has shrunk over the past two weeks. The map for the 5 days ending 30 January shows a volume of water more than 4 °C cooler than usual for this time of the year remains in the sub-surface. Warm anomalies in the sub-surface of the western tropical Pacific have also shown a significant increase, with a much larger volume of water more than 3 °C warmer than usual, for this time of the year as compared to two weeks ago.
在过去两个星期中(截至1月30日5天的地图),热带太平洋东部出现的负距平区面积与之前相比有所缩减,然而部分地区的次表层海温负距平值仍保持在4°C以上,然而部分地区的次表层海温有所转暖,大部分地区的次表层海温负距平值已回升至3°C。

图片:4.gif


Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) continued to drop over the past fortnight, but remains above La Niña thresholds. The latest (30 January) 30-day SOI value is +10.3.
南方涛动指数(SOI)在过去2周持续下降,但仍然高过拉尼娜现象的门槛,最新30天(至1月30日)的SOI值为+ 10.3。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。

图片:5.png


Trade winds:
信风:
Trade winds have in the central and western tropical Pacific strengthened marginally, when compared with two weeks ago. The latest wind anomaly map, for the 5 days ending 30 January, shows trade winds continue to be stronger than average across most of the equatorial Pacific, but near-neutral in the eastern Pacific.
最新的风力异常图表示,和两周前相比,太平洋西部的信风强度略微加强。到1月30日为止的最新一幅5天风力异常图,显示太平洋赤道地区信风仍然高于平均水平,但东太平洋的信风接近中性。

During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。

图片:6.gif


Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:
Cloudiness near the dateline has remained suppressed over the past two weeks.
在过去两周,换日线附近的云量受到抑制。

Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近的赤道地区云量,是ENSO状况的重要指标之一,因为在厄尔尼诺事件下,换日线附近和以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。

图片:7.gif


Climate Models:
气候模式:
The majority of outlooks from leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the current La Niña will decline over the coming weeks. The current event is expected to persist through the remainder of summer, but neutral values are forecast for the coming autumn.
本局参考了大部分国际领先的气候模式,目前的拉尼娜现象可能已经接近了顶峰。预计今年夏天拉尼娜现象仍将持续,但之后便将会逐渐减弱,预计拉尼娜现象将在秋季回归中性水平。

图片:8.gif


Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) typically has little influence in Australia over summer. The IOD index is currently neutral; the index value for the week ending 29 January was 0.0.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)目前处于中等水平,它通常会对澳大利亚夏季气候造成一定影响。截至1月29日一周内的IOD指数为+0.0。

Recent forecasts from the POAMA model predict neutral IOD conditions for the remainder of summer and the following autumn.
最近的POAMA模型预测指出,该事件将在夏季余下时间中和秋季保持中等水平。

图片:9.gif


 
 
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发布于:2012-02-14 13:27
La Niña shows some weakening
拉尼娜现象有所减弱(2012.2.14)

The La Niña showed some signs of weakening over the past fortnight as the tropical Pacific Ocean warmed. However, La Niña remains in place and is likely to influence Australian climate over the coming months. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau show a continued decline of La Niña, with a neutral ENSO state expected in the southern hemisphere autumn.
在过去的两周,由于热带太平洋的海温开始转暖,显示出了拉尼娜现象减弱的迹象。然而现在正在发生的拉尼娜现象仍然在将未来几个月内影响澳大利亚的气候。调查局的气候模型显示,拉尼娜现象将会持续减弱,预计ENSO在南半球的秋季时便会回归中性。
Over the past fortnight, sea surface temperatures have warmed across the tropical Pacific, most significantly over the central to eastern Pacific regions, associated with a brief easing of the trade winds. Other indicators of La Niña, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and cloudiness over the equatorial Pacific Ocean have generally remained steady at La Niña levels.
在过去两周内,太平洋热带地区的海温有所回暖,在东太平洋的中部地区尤为明显,且信风强度也有所减弱。而拉尼娜现象的其余指标,如南方涛动指数(SOI)和赤道太平洋地区的云量均稳定在拉尼娜水平。
La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall and below normal daytime temperatures from winter through summer across eastern and northern Australia. Tropical cyclone risk is increased for northern Australia during the cyclone season (November to April), peaking in February and March.  
发生拉尼娜现象时澳洲的大部分地区在今年下半年以及夏季通常,但并不总是高于正常降雨量,特别是东部和北部地区。白天气温通常比平均气温低,以及飓风季节(11月至4月),特别是2月和3月登陆澳大利亚北部的热带气旋增加的风险。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to cool in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean during January, but warmed in the eastern Pacific. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for January shows cool anomalies in the central Pacific near to and just east of the dateline more than 1 °C cooler than normal.  
1月赤道太平洋中部地区的海温(SST)仍然低于正常水平,但东太平洋的海温却高于正常水平。1月海面温度(SST)距平图显示,太平洋中部和东部海温与仍然异常偏低,而靠近日界线地区的赤道太平洋负距平值仍然保持在1℃以上。



IndexNovemberDecemberTemperature change
NINO3−0.8−0.60.2 °C warmer
NINO3.4−0.9−0.80.1 °C warmer
NINO4−0.5−0.80.3 °C cooler

图片:1.gif


Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:

During the past two weeks, sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific have warmed; all three NINO indices monitored also show warming during this period. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 12 February shows cool anomalies remain across most of the central equatorial Pacific, with areas more than 1 °C cooler than normal for this time of the year.  
在过去几周内,赤道太平洋中部的海温有所转暖;NINO3指数也表明这个时期内的海温有所上升。截至2月12日的每周海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋中部地区的海温仍然保持为负距平,海温较同期相比偏低的幅度达到1℃以上。
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3−0.4−0.50.1 °C cooler
NINO3.4−0.8−1.00.2 °C cooler
NINO4−0.9−1.00.1 °C cooler

图片:2.gif


Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温

Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:

The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies shows that the cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the central and eastern Pacific continued to expand during January. A large volume of water in the sub-surface of the Pacific between about 160°W and 100°W is more than 4 °C cooler than average. West of the dateline, warm anomalies have strengthened, with the warmest water here now reaching more than 4 °C warmer than average for January.  
四个月次表层海温异常图表明,中太平洋和东太平洋次表层海温的负距平范围继续扩大,虽然整体情况与12月的水平十分接近,但赤道太平洋100°W至160°W之间的海温仍出现了超过4°C的负距平值。该区域的海温与之前相比有所转暖。

图片:3.gif


Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:

The volume of cooler than average water in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific has continued to show weakening over the past two weeks. The map for the 5 days ending 12 February shows a small volume of water more than 4 °C cooler than usual for this time of the year remains in the sub-surface. The surface of the far eastern tropical Pacific shows shallow warm anomalies have developed over the past two weeks.  
在过去两个星期中(截至2月12日5天的地图),热带太平洋东部出现的负距平区的面积持续呈现出缩小的趋势,然而部分地区的次表层海温负距平值仍保持在4°C以上,但太平洋远东地区的次表层海温有所转暖,部分地区的次表层海温甚至出现略微的正距平。

图片:4.gif


Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:

During the past fortnight, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) dropped to near La Niña threshold levels before increasing again. The latest (12 February) 30-day SOI value is +11.9.
南方涛动指数(SOI)在过去2周下降至拉尼娜现象门槛附近后再度回升,最新30天(至2月12日)的SOI值为+11.9。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。

图片:5.png


Trade winds:
信风:

Trade winds have continued to strengthen slightly over the past two weeks in the western tropical Pacific. The latest wind anomaly map, for the 5 days ending 12 February, shows trade winds continue to be stronger than average across most of the equatorial Pacific, although westerly winds have emerged in the eastern Pacific.
最新的风力异常图表示,和两周前相比,热带太平洋西部的信风强度仍然略有加强。到2月12日为止的最新一幅5天风力异常图,显示太平洋赤道地区信风仍然高于平均水平,但东太平洋却开始出现了西风。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。

图片:6.gif


Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:

Cloudiness near the dateline has remained suppressed over the past two weeks.
在过去两周,换日线附近的云量受到抑制。
Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
换日线附近的赤道地区云量,是ENSO状况的重要指标之一,因为在厄尔尼诺事件下,换日线附近和以东的云量通常会增加(OLR负距平),而在拉尼娜事件下则会减少(OLR正距平)。

图片:7.gif


Climate Models:
气候模式:

The majority of outlooks from leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the current La Niña will decline over the coming weeks. The current event is expected to persist through the remainder of summer, but neutral values are forecast for the coming autumn.  
本局参考了大部分国际领先的气候模式,目前的拉尼娜现象可能已经接近了顶峰。预计今年夏天拉尼娜现象仍将持续,但之后便将会逐渐减弱,预计拉尼娜现象将在秋季回归中性水平。

图片:8.gif


Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) typically has little influence in Australia over summer. The IOD index is currently neutral; the index value for the week ending 12 February was −0.4.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)目前处于中等水平,它通常会对澳大利亚夏季气候造成一定影响。截至2月12日一周内的IOD指数为-0.4。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model predict neutral IOD conditions for autumn.  
最近POAMA模型预测指出,该事件将在秋季保持中等水平。

图片:9.gif


 
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发布于:2012-03-03 22:55
La Niña on the decline; Australian waters remain warmer than usual
拉尼娜现象继续减弱;澳大利亚附近海域仍较正常情况温暖(2012.02.28)

The decline of the 2011–12 La Niña has gained momentum over the last few weeks. In addition, climate models surveyed by the Bureau show a continued weakening of the event, with a neutral ENSO state expected during autumn. While La Niña is clearly on the wane, waters around Australia remain warmer than normal, maintaining the potential for increased rainfall over the continent.
在过去几周内,2011/2012年拉尼娜现象继续减弱。此外,调查局的气候模型表明拉尼娜现象仍将继续减弱,预计ENSO在秋季将会回归中等水平。虽然拉尼娜现象明显减弱,但澳大利亚周边水温仍然较正常情况温暖,给澳大利亚大陆带来的降水过程仍将持续。
Over the past fortnight, most oceanic indicators of ENSO have continued their steady shift towards neutral conditions. Sea surface temperatures have warmed across the tropical Pacific Ocean, with the latest weekly values dipping into the neutral range. Atmospheric indicators of ENSO are mixed, though the latest 30-day value of the Southern Oscillation Index (+0.7) is also within neutral territory. In contrast, trade winds and cloudiness over the equatorial Pacific Ocean remain consistent with La Niña.
在过去两周内,多数海洋指标均表明ENSO继续稳步向中性条件转变。热带太平洋海水表面温度开始回暖,并在上周转变为中等水平。纵观各种大气指标,虽然近30天南方涛动指数(+0.7)已转变为中性条件。但赤道太平洋的信风及云量却表示拉尼娜现象仍未离去。
During La Niña events, the number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region is typically above normal over the November to April tropical cyclone season, with February and March the peak. The influence of La Niña on Australian rainfall and temperature typically peaks during winter to mid-summer, and then weakens over the following autumn. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has limited influence on Australian rainfall from December through to April.
发生拉尼娜现象时,澳洲大部分地区飓风季(11月至4月)产生的热带气旋数量通常高于正常水平,特别是2月和3月。而拉尼娜现象通常会导致澳大利亚冬季及盛夏的气温偏高,而秋季的气温偏低。印度洋偶极子(IOD)对澳大利亚12月至4月的降雨量的影响有限。
Sea Surface Temperatures
海洋表面温度
Monthly sea surface temperatures:
每月海洋表面温度:
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to cool in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean during January, but warmed in the eastern Pacific. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for January shows cool anomalies in the central Pacific near to and just east of the dateline more than 1 °C cooler than normal.
1月赤道太平洋中部地区的海温(SST)仍然低于正常水平,但东太平洋的海温却高于正常水平。1月海面温度(SST)距平图显示,太平洋中部和东部海温与仍然异常偏低,而靠近日界线地区的赤道太平洋负距平值仍然保持在1℃以上。
IndexDecemberJanuaryTemperature change
NINO3−0.6−0.40.2 °C warmer
NINO3.4−0.8−0.90.1 °C cooler
NINO4−0.8−1.00.2 °C cooler

图片:1.gif


Weekly sea surface temperatures:
每周海洋表面温度:
During the past two weeks, there has been a dramatic warming of sea surface temperature anomalies in eastern equatorial Pacific. As during the previous fortnight, all three NINO indices monitored have warmed over the past two weeks. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 26 February shows cool anomalies remain in the central equatorial Pacific, with some areas more than 1 °C cooler than normal for this time of the year, while large areas of both the eastern and western equatorial Pacific are more than 1 °C warmer than normal.
在过去两周内,赤道太平洋东部的海面温度急剧转暖。在过去两周中,所有三个的NINO指数均出现了回暖。截至2月26日的一周海温距平图显示,赤道太平洋中部部分地区仍然出现超过1℃的负距平,在过去一年中,赤道太平洋的东部和西部的广大地区均出现超过1℃的负距平。
IndexPreviousCurrentTemperature change
(2 weeks)
NINO3−0.2 0.50.8 °C warmer
NINO3.4−0.7−0.20.5 °C warmer
NINO4−0.8−0.60.2 °C warmer

图片:2.gif

[
Pacific ocean sub-surface temperatures
太平洋次表层海温
Monthly sub-surface:
每月次表层海温:
The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies shows cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the central and eastern Pacific contracted during February, and shallow warm anomalies emerged in the far eastern Pacific. In the sub-surface of the eastern Pacific the large volume of cooler-than-usual water remains more than 4 °C cooler than average, while in the west, warm anomalies have continued to strengthen, with an increase in the volume of water more than 4 °C warmer than average.
四个月次表层海温异常图表明,二月,中太平洋和东太平洋的次表层海温仍旧出现负距平,而太平洋远东地区却出现略微的正距平,然而赤道太平洋东部地区仍然出现超过4°C的负距平。而热带太平洋西部地区却出现了超过4°C的正距平。

图片:3.gif


Weekly sub-surface:
每周次表层海温:
The volume of cooler than average water in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific has continued to weaken over the past two weeks. The map for the 5 days ending 26 February shows a small volume of water more than 3 °C cooler than usual for this time of the year remains in the sub-surface. Shallow warm anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific have continued to develop, and warm sub-surface anomalies in the western Pacific remain relatively unchanged compared to two weeks ago.
在过去两周内(截至2月26日5天的距平图),热带太平洋东部负距平区的面积继续减小,少部分地区的次表层海温负距平值在3℃以上,太平洋远东地区的次表层海温继续转暖,而太平洋西部地区的次表层海温在过去两周内变化不大。

图片:4.gif


Southern Oscillation Index:
南方涛动指数:
During the past fortnight, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to drop, and is now within neutral ENSO values. The latest (26 February) 30-day SOI value is +0.7.
在过去2周内,南方涛动指数(SOI)大幅度下降,目前已经回归中等水平,最新30天(至2月26日)的SOI值为+0.7。
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI持续在+8以上,可能意味着拉尼娜事件的发生;而SOI持续在-8以上,可能意味着厄尔尼诺事件的发生。 SOI在+8和-8之间维持的话,通常表示情况为中性。

图片:5.png


Trade winds:
信风:
Trade winds have weakened in the central tropical Pacific over the past two weeks. The latest wind anomaly map, for the 5 days ending 26 February, shows trade winds continue to be stronger than average across the western tropical Pacific, and westerly winds dominate the eastern tropical Pacific.
最新的风力异常图表示,和两周前相比,热带太平洋中部的信风强度有所减弱。截至2月26日为止最新一幅5天风力异常图显示,热带太平洋西部的信风仍然高于平均水平,而热带太平洋东部西风已占主导地位。
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
 在拉尼娜事件发生时,赤道太平洋地区的大部分地区的信风会持续增强;而在厄尔尼诺事件发生时,信风会持续减弱。

图片:6.gif


Cloudiness near the dateline:
换日线附近云量:
Cloudiness near the dateline has remained suppressed over the past two weeks.
在过去两周,换日线附近的云量受到抑制。
The majority of outlooks from leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the current La Niña will decline over the coming weeks. The current event is expected to persist through the remainder of summer, but neutral values are forecast for the coming autumn.
本局参考了大部分国际领先的气候模式,目前的拉尼娜现象可能已经接近了顶峰。预计今年夏天拉尼娜现象仍将持续,但之后便将会逐渐减弱,预计拉尼娜现象将在秋季回归中等水平。

图片:7.gif


Climate Models:
气候模式:
All outlooks from leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau forecast neutral ENSO conditions for the coming autumn, continuing into winter.
本局参考了大部分国际领先的气候模式,ENSO将在即将到来的秋季或冬季回归中性水平。

图片:8.gif


Indian Ocean Dipole:
印度洋偶极子:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) typically has little influence in Australia over summer. The IOD index is currently neutral, with a value of −0.2 for the week ending 26 February.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)通常会对澳大利亚夏季气候造成一定影响但影响不大,该现象目前处于中等水平。截至2月26日一周内的IOD指数为-0.2。
Recent forecasts from the POAMA model predict neutral IOD conditions for autumn.
最近POAMA模型预测指出,该事件将在秋季保持中等水平。

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层主吃了一斤小苹果 感觉自己萌~萌~哒~ (*/ω\*)
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